Intrinsic value of Plantronics - PLT

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$53.05

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of PLT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.80
  3.10
  3.29
  3.46
  3.61
  3.75
  3.88
  3.99
  4.09
  4.18
  4.26
  4.34
  4.40
  4.46
  4.52
  4.57
  4.61
  4.65
  4.68
  4.71
  4.74
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
Revenue, $m
  881
  884
  913
  944
  978
  1,015
  1,054
  1,097
  1,141
  1,189
  1,240
  1,294
  1,351
  1,411
  1,475
  1,542
  1,613
  1,688
  1,767
  1,850
  1,938
  2,030
  2,128
  2,230
  2,338
  2,451
  2,571
  2,696
  2,828
  2,966
  3,112
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  731
  755
  781
  809
  839
  872
  907
  944
  983
  1,025
  1,070
  1,117
  1,167
  1,219
  1,275
  1,334
  1,396
  1,461
  1,530
  1,603
  1,679
  1,760
  1,844
  1,933
  2,027
  2,126
  2,229
  2,338
  2,453
  2,574
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  756
  731
  755
  781
  809
  839
  872
  907
  944
  983
  1,025
  1,070
  1,117
  1,167
  1,219
  1,275
  1,334
  1,396
  1,461
  1,530
  1,603
  1,679
  1,760
  1,844
  1,933
  2,027
  2,126
  2,229
  2,338
  2,453
  2,574
Operating income, $m
  125
  153
  158
  163
  169
  176
  182
  190
  197
  206
  214
  224
  234
  244
  255
  267
  279
  292
  306
  320
  335
  351
  368
  386
  404
  424
  445
  466
  489
  513
  538
EBITDA, $m
  146
  174
  179
  185
  192
  199
  207
  215
  224
  234
  243
  254
  265
  277
  290
  303
  317
  331
  347
  363
  381
  399
  418
  438
  459
  481
  505
  529
  555
  582
  611
Interest expense (income), $m
  28
  25
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  56
  59
  63
  66
  70
  73
  77
Earnings before tax, $m
  102
  128
  139
  144
  149
  155
  160
  166
  173
  180
  187
  195
  204
  212
  222
  232
  242
  253
  265
  277
  290
  303
  317
  332
  348
  365
  382
  400
  420
  440
  461
Tax expense, $m
  19
  35
  38
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  63
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  108
  113
  119
  125
Net income, $m
  83
  94
  102
  105
  109
  113
  117
  122
  126
  131
  137
  143
  149
  155
  162
  169
  177
  185
  193
  202
  211
  221
  232
  243
  254
  266
  279
  292
  306
  321
  337

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  480
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,017
  555
  573
  593
  614
  637
  662
  688
  716
  746
  778
  812
  848
  886
  926
  968
  1,013
  1,060
  1,109
  1,162
  1,217
  1,275
  1,336
  1,400
  1,468
  1,539
  1,614
  1,692
  1,775
  1,862
  1,953
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  537
  555
  573
  593
  614
  637
  662
  688
  716
  746
  778
  812
  848
  886
  926
  968
  1,013
  1,060
  1,109
  1,162
  1,217
  1,275
  1,336
  1,400
  1,468
  1,539
  1,614
  1,692
  1,775
  1,862
  1,953
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.641
  1.593
  1.593
  1.592
  1.593
  1.593
  1.592
  1.594
  1.594
  1.594
  1.594
  1.594
  1.593
  1.593
  1.593
  1.593
  1.592
  1.592
  1.593
  1.592
  1.592
  1.592
  1.593
  1.593
  1.593
  1.593
  1.593
  1.593
  1.593
  1.593
  1.593
Average production assets, $m
  167
  165
  171
  177
  183
  190
  197
  205
  213
  222
  232
  242
  253
  264
  276
  288
  302
  316
  330
  346
  362
  380
  398
  417
  437
  458
  481
  504
  529
  555
  582
Working capital, $m
  582
  96
  99
  103
  107
  111
  115
  120
  124
  130
  135
  141
  147
  154
  161
  168
  176
  184
  193
  202
  211
  221
  232
  243
  255
  267
  280
  294
  308
  323
  339
Total debt, $m
  491
  368
  385
  402
  422
  442
  465
  489
  514
  541
  569
  600
  632
  666
  702
  740
  780
  823
  867
  914
  964
  1,016
  1,071
  1,129
  1,190
  1,254
  1,321
  1,392
  1,467
  1,545
  1,627
Total liabilities, $m
  635
  499
  516
  533
  553
  573
  596
  620
  645
  672
  700
  731
  763
  797
  833
  871
  911
  954
  998
  1,045
  1,095
  1,147
  1,202
  1,260
  1,321
  1,385
  1,452
  1,523
  1,598
  1,676
  1,758
Total equity, $m
  382
  55
  57
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  127
  134
  140
  147
  154
  161
  169
  178
  186
  195
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,017
  554
  573
  592
  614
  637
  662
  689
  717
  747
  778
  812
  848
  886
  926
  968
  1,012
  1,060
  1,109
  1,161
  1,217
  1,274
  1,336
  1,400
  1,468
  1,539
  1,613
  1,692
  1,776
  1,862
  1,953
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.285
  6.640
  6.710
  6.790
  6.870
  6.940
  7.020
  7.100
  7.170
  7.250
  7.320
  7.390
  7.450
  7.520
  7.580
  7.650
  7.710
  7.760
  7.820
  7.870
  7.920
  7.970
  8.020
  8.060
  8.110
  8.150
  8.190
  8.230
  8.260
  8.300
  8.330
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.182
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  83
  94
  102
  105
  109
  113
  117
  122
  126
  131
  137
  143
  149
  155
  162
  169
  177
  185
  193
  202
  211
  221
  232
  243
  254
  266
  279
  292
  306
  321
  337
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  21
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
Funds from operations, $m
  139
  114
  123
  127
  132
  137
  142
  147
  153
  159
  166
  173
  180
  188
  196
  205
  214
  224
  234
  245
  257
  269
  281
  295
  309
  323
  339
  355
  372
  390
  409
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
Cash from operations, $m
  138
  117
  120
  124
  128
  133
  137
  143
  148
  154
  160
  167
  174
  182
  189
  198
  207
  216
  226
  236
  247
  259
  271
  284
  297
  311
  326
  342
  358
  375
  393
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
New CAPEX, $m
  -23
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -22
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -92
  -96
Free cash flow, $m
  116
  92
  94
  97
  100
  103
  106
  110
  114
  118
  123
  128
  133
  139
  145
  151
  157
  164
  172
  179
  187
  196
  205
  215
  225
  235
  246
  258
  270
  283
  297
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  -122
  16
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
  74
  78
  82
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -19
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -27
  -122
  16
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
  74
  78
  82
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  87
  -30
  110
  114
  119
  124
  129
  134
  139
  145
  152
  158
  165
  173
  181
  189
  197
  207
  216
  226
  237
  248
  260
  272
  286
  299
  314
  329
  345
  362
  379
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -70
  -138
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  395
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  227
  108
  112
  117
  121
  126
  131
  137
  142
  148
  155
  162
  169
  177
  185
  193
  202
  211
  221
  232
  242
  254
  266
  279
  292
  306
  321
  337
  353
  370
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  218
  99
  98
  96
  94
  91
  89
  85
  82
  78
  74
  69
  64
  59
  54
  49
  44
  39
  34
  29
  25
  21
  17
  14
  11
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Plantronics, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets lightweight communications headsets, telephone headset systems, other communication endpoints, and accessories for the business and consumer markets under the Plantronics brand worldwide. The company also manufactures and markets specialty telephone products under the Clarity brand. Its primary products include corded and cordless communication headsets; audio processors; telephone systems; Bluetooth and corded products; personal computer and gaming headsets; and specialty products for hearing impaired individuals. The company designs its products for various markets and applications, such as enterprise and home offices, contact centers, mobile phones and smartphones, tablets, computer and gaming, residential, and other specialty applications. Plantronics, Inc. sells products through a network of distributors, retailers, wireless carriers, resellers, government programs, health care professionals, online retailers, catalog and mail order companies, mass merchants, carriers, system integrators, e-commerce partners, telephony and computer equipment providers, authorized resellers, UC alliances with providers of UC software solutions, and General Services Administration contractor to government agencies in the United States, as well as through direct sales and from its Website. The company was founded in 1961 and is headquartered in Santa Cruz, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Plantronics (PLT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 21.4
Price to Sales 2
Price to Book 4.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 15.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 2.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -25.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -14.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 128.5%
Total Debt to Equity 128.5%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 10.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.9%
Return On Total Capital 9.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.3%
Return On Equity 23.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.6%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 50.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 51.4%
EBITDA Margin 17.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.5%
Operating Margin 14.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 11.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.6%
Net Profit Margin 9.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.1%
Effective Tax Rate 18.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.5%
Payout Ratio 24.1%

PLT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PLT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $857 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Plantronics. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Plantronics. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PLT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for PLT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Plantronics, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Plantronics.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PLT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 82.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PLT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5% for Plantronics.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Plantronics. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PLT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PLT are equal to 18.7%.

Life of production assets of 8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Plantronics operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PLT is equal to 10.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $312 million for Plantronics - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 32.537 million for Plantronics is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Plantronics at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.7 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to Plantronics, Inc. : May 15, 2017   [May-15-17 04:23PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Story Stocks from Briefing.com   [May-01-17 12:39PM  Briefing.com]
▶ Plantronics tops 4Q profit forecasts   [08:20AM  Associated Press]
▶ What Makes a Competitive Advantage Durable?   [Mar-27-17 06:16PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Plantronics BackBeat PRO 2 Wins Prestigious iF Design Award   [Mar-14-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ [$$] Finding Big Value in Small Stocks   [Feb-11-17 12:01AM  at Barrons.com]
▶ Should You Avoid Plantronics, Inc. (PLT)?   [Dec-09-16 11:11AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Voyager 5200 UC Named 2017 CES Innovation Award Honoree   [Dec-07-16 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Have Hedge Funds Found A Winner In New Relic Inc (NEWR)?   [Nov-28-16 10:44PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ 2 tools that can help you get more done   [Nov-09-16 11:10AM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Plantronics CEO Ken Kannappan to Retire   [04:07PM  Marketwired]
Stock chart of PLT Financial statements of PLT Annual reports of PLT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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