Intrinsic value of Plexus - PLXS

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$53.06

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of PLXS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -3.69
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  2,556
  2,607
  2,667
  2,736
  2,813
  2,898
  2,991
  3,093
  3,204
  3,322
  3,450
  3,586
  3,732
  3,887
  4,052
  4,226
  4,411
  4,608
  4,815
  5,034
  5,265
  5,509
  5,767
  6,038
  6,324
  6,625
  6,942
  7,275
  7,627
  7,996
  8,384
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,182
  2,232
  2,290
  2,354
  2,426
  2,504
  2,589
  2,681
  2,781
  2,888
  3,002
  3,124
  3,253
  3,391
  3,537
  3,692
  3,857
  4,030
  4,213
  4,407
  4,611
  4,827
  5,054
  5,293
  5,545
  5,810
  6,090
  6,383
  6,693
  7,018
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  334
  343
  351
  360
  369
  378
  388
  397
  407
  417
  428
  438
  449
  461
  472
  484
  496
  508
  521
  534
  548
  561
  575
  590
  604
  619
  635
  651
  667
  684
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,457
  2,516
  2,575
  2,641
  2,714
  2,795
  2,882
  2,977
  3,078
  3,188
  3,305
  3,430
  3,562
  3,702
  3,852
  4,009
  4,176
  4,353
  4,538
  4,734
  4,941
  5,159
  5,388
  5,629
  5,883
  6,149
  6,429
  6,725
  7,034
  7,360
  7,702
Operating income, $m
  99
  91
  92
  95
  99
  104
  110
  117
  125
  134
  145
  157
  170
  184
  200
  217
  235
  255
  276
  299
  324
  350
  379
  409
  441
  475
  512
  551
  592
  636
  683
EBITDA, $m
  146
  122
  124
  127
  132
  138
  145
  154
  163
  174
  186
  200
  214
  230
  248
  267
  288
  310
  334
  359
  387
  416
  447
  481
  516
  554
  595
  637
  683
  731
  783
Interest expense (income), $m
  15
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  31
  33
  36
  39
  42
  46
  49
  53
  57
  61
  66
  70
  75
  80
  86
  92
  98
  104
Earnings before tax, $m
  87
  80
  81
  82
  85
  89
  93
  99
  105
  113
  121
  131
  142
  153
  166
  181
  196
  213
  231
  250
  271
  293
  317
  343
  371
  400
  432
  465
  501
  539
  579
Tax expense, $m
  11
  22
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  33
  35
  38
  41
  45
  49
  53
  57
  62
  68
  73
  79
  86
  93
  100
  108
  117
  126
  135
  145
  156
Net income, $m
  76
  59
  59
  60
  62
  65
  68
  72
  77
  82
  89
  96
  103
  112
  121
  132
  143
  155
  168
  183
  198
  214
  232
  251
  271
  292
  315
  339
  365
  393
  423

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  433
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,766
  1,360
  1,391
  1,427
  1,467
  1,512
  1,560
  1,614
  1,671
  1,733
  1,800
  1,871
  1,947
  2,028
  2,113
  2,205
  2,301
  2,404
  2,512
  2,626
  2,747
  2,874
  3,008
  3,150
  3,299
  3,456
  3,621
  3,795
  3,978
  4,171
  4,374
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,333
  1,360
  1,391
  1,427
  1,467
  1,512
  1,560
  1,614
  1,671
  1,733
  1,800
  1,871
  1,947
  2,028
  2,113
  2,205
  2,301
  2,404
  2,512
  2,626
  2,747
  2,874
  3,008
  3,150
  3,299
  3,456
  3,621
  3,795
  3,978
  4,171
  4,374
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.917
  1.917
  1.917
  1.917
  1.918
  1.917
  1.917
  1.916
  1.917
  1.917
  1.917
  1.917
  1.917
  1.917
  1.918
  1.917
  1.917
  1.917
  1.917
  1.917
  1.917
  1.917
  1.917
  1.917
  1.917
  1.917
  1.917
  1.917
  1.917
  1.917
  1.917
Average production assets, $m
  305
  310
  317
  326
  335
  345
  356
  368
  381
  395
  411
  427
  444
  463
  482
  503
  525
  548
  573
  599
  627
  656
  686
  719
  753
  788
  826
  866
  908
  952
  998
Working capital, $m
  783
  438
  448
  460
  473
  487
  503
  520
  538
  558
  580
  602
  627
  653
  681
  710
  741
  774
  809
  846
  885
  926
  969
  1,014
  1,062
  1,113
  1,166
  1,222
  1,281
  1,343
  1,409
Total debt, $m
  263
  200
  218
  239
  262
  288
  316
  347
  380
  416
  454
  495
  539
  586
  636
  688
  744
  803
  866
  932
  1,002
  1,075
  1,153
  1,235
  1,321
  1,411
  1,507
  1,608
  1,714
  1,825
  1,942
Total liabilities, $m
  849
  786
  804
  825
  848
  874
  902
  933
  966
  1,002
  1,040
  1,081
  1,125
  1,172
  1,222
  1,274
  1,330
  1,389
  1,452
  1,518
  1,588
  1,661
  1,739
  1,821
  1,907
  1,997
  2,093
  2,194
  2,300
  2,411
  2,528
Total equity, $m
  917
  574
  587
  602
  619
  638
  659
  681
  705
  731
  759
  789
  822
  856
  892
  930
  971
  1,014
  1,060
  1,108
  1,159
  1,213
  1,269
  1,329
  1,392
  1,458
  1,528
  1,602
  1,679
  1,760
  1,846
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,766
  1,360
  1,391
  1,427
  1,467
  1,512
  1,561
  1,614
  1,671
  1,733
  1,799
  1,870
  1,947
  2,028
  2,114
  2,204
  2,301
  2,403
  2,512
  2,626
  2,747
  2,874
  3,008
  3,150
  3,299
  3,455
  3,621
  3,796
  3,979
  4,171
  4,374
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.287
  0.350
  0.370
  0.400
  0.420
  0.450
  0.480
  0.510
  0.540
  0.570
  0.600
  0.630
  0.660
  0.680
  0.710
  0.740
  0.770
  0.790
  0.820
  0.840
  0.860
  0.890
  0.910
  0.930
  0.950
  0.970
  0.990
  1.000
  1.020
  1.040
  1.050
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.363
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422
  0.422

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  76
  59
  59
  60
  62
  65
  68
  72
  77
  82
  89
  96
  103
  112
  121
  132
  143
  155
  168
  183
  198
  214
  232
  251
  271
  292
  315
  339
  365
  393
  423
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  47
  31
  32
  33
  33
  34
  36
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
Funds from operations, $m
  111
  90
  91
  93
  96
  99
  104
  109
  115
  122
  130
  138
  148
  158
  170
  182
  195
  210
  226
  242
  260
  280
  300
  322
  346
  371
  398
  426
  456
  488
  522
Change in working capital, $m
  -17
  9
  10
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
Cash from operations, $m
  128
  81
  81
  81
  83
  85
  88
  92
  96
  102
  108
  115
  123
  132
  142
  153
  164
  177
  191
  206
  222
  239
  257
  277
  298
  320
  344
  370
  397
  426
  457
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
New CAPEX, $m
  -31
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -27
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -80
  -83
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -141
Free cash flow, $m
  101
  45
  43
  41
  41
  41
  42
  44
  46
  50
  53
  58
  63
  69
  76
  84
  92
  101
  111
  122
  134
  147
  161
  176
  192
  209
  228
  248
  269
  292
  316
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -5
  16
  18
  21
  23
  26
  28
  31
  33
  36
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  63
  66
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
  91
  96
  101
  106
  111
  117
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -14
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -21
  16
  18
  21
  23
  26
  28
  31
  33
  36
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  63
  66
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
  91
  96
  101
  106
  111
  117
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  76
  61
  61
  62
  64
  67
  70
  75
  80
  85
  92
  99
  107
  116
  126
  136
  148
  160
  174
  188
  204
  221
  239
  258
  278
  300
  323
  348
  375
  403
  433
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -75
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -86
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  354
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  404
  47
  47
  47
  48
  50
  52
  55
  59
  64
  69
  75
  82
  90
  98
  107
  117
  128
  140
  153
  167
  182
  198
  215
  234
  254
  275
  297
  322
  347
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  387
  43
  41
  39
  37
  36
  35
  35
  34
  33
  33
  32
  31
  30
  29
  27
  25
  24
  22
  19
  17
  15
  13
  11
  9
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Plexus Corp., together with its subsidiaries, provides electronic manufacturing services in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific. It offers product conceptualization solutions; and product design and value-engineering solutions, including program management, feasibility studies, specification development for product features and functionality, circuit design, field programmable gate array design, printed circuit board layout, embedded software design, mechanical design, test specifications development and product verification testing, and automated production solutions and complex automation design. The company also provides commercialization solutions, such as prototyping, new product introduction, design for supply chain, test development, and transition management; manufacturing solutions; and fulfillment and logistics solutions. In addition, it offers sustaining solutions, which include aftermarket services, such as screening, loaner program, part harvesting, in/out warranty repair, advanced exchange, part repair, upgrade, demo unit management, warranty redemption, refurbishment, recycling, part fulfillment, decontamination, destruction, part fulfillment with warranty redemption, complaint handling, and part sales. The company provides its solutions to companies in the networking/communications, healthcare/life sciences, industrial/commercial, and defense/security/aerospace sectors. Plexus Corp. was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Neenah, Wisconsin.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Plexus (PLXS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 23.4
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 1.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 18.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -3.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -11.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -22.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 5
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 20.1%
Total Debt to Equity 28.7%
Interest Coverage 7
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Return On Total Capital 6.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Return On Equity 8.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.7%
Asset Turnover 1.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 8.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.1%
EBITDA Margin 5.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.2%
Operating Margin 3.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
Net Profit Margin 3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Effective Tax Rate 12.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

PLXS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PLXS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2556 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Plexus. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Plexus. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PLXS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for PLXS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Plexus, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Plexus.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PLXS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 83.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $326 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PLXS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.7% for Plexus.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Plexus. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PLXS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PLXS are equal to 11.9%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Plexus operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PLXS is equal to 16.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $917 million for Plexus - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 32.787 million for Plexus is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Plexus at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.7 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Stock Market News for July 20, 2017   [Jul-20-17 09:36AM  Zacks]
▶ Plexus beats Street 3Q forecasts   [Jul-19-17 09:42PM  Associated Press]
▶ Plexus Corp. Value Analysis (NASDAQ:PLXS) : June 27, 2017   [Jun-27-17 04:44PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Plexus Sets Fiscal Third Quarter 2017 Earnings Release Date   [Jun-15-17 04:02PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Plexus Corp. : May 18, 2017   [May-18-17 01:57PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Story Stocks from Briefing.com   [08:51AM  Briefing.com]
▶ Plexus tops 2Q profit forecasts   [Apr-19-17 04:44PM  Associated Press]
▶ Plexus beats 1Q profit forecasts   [Jan-18-17 04:08PM  AP]
▶ Plexus Sets Fiscal First Quarter 2017 Earnings Release Date   [Dec-14-16 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Plexus Corp. (PLXS): Are Hedge Funds Right About This Stock?   [Dec-07-16 07:38AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Plexus tops 4Q profit forecasts   [Oct-26-16 06:03PM  AP]
Stock chart of PLXS Financial statements of PLXS Annual reports of PLXS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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