Intrinsic value of PharMerica - PMC

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$23.35

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$23.35

 
Intrinsic value

$15.05

 
Up/down potential

-36%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of PMC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.06
  2.50
  2.75
  2.97
  3.18
  3.36
  3.52
  3.67
  3.80
  3.92
  4.03
  4.13
  4.22
  4.29
  4.36
  4.43
  4.49
  4.54
  4.58
  4.62
  4.66
  4.70
  4.73
  4.75
  4.78
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.85
  4.87
  4.88
Revenue, $m
  2,091
  2,143
  2,202
  2,268
  2,340
  2,418
  2,504
  2,596
  2,694
  2,800
  2,913
  3,033
  3,161
  3,297
  3,441
  3,593
  3,754
  3,924
  4,104
  4,294
  4,494
  4,705
  4,928
  5,162
  5,409
  5,668
  5,942
  6,229
  6,531
  6,849
  7,184
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,084
  2,141
  2,203
  2,272
  2,347
  2,428
  2,516
  2,610
  2,711
  2,819
  2,894
  3,016
  3,146
  3,283
  3,429
  3,582
  3,745
  3,917
  4,098
  4,289
  4,490
  4,702
  4,926
  5,161
  5,409
  5,670
  5,944
  6,233
  6,536
  6,855
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,053
  2,084
  2,141
  2,203
  2,272
  2,347
  2,428
  2,516
  2,610
  2,711
  2,819
  2,894
  3,016
  3,146
  3,283
  3,429
  3,582
  3,745
  3,917
  4,098
  4,289
  4,490
  4,702
  4,926
  5,161
  5,409
  5,670
  5,944
  6,233
  6,536
  6,855
Operating income, $m
  38
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  80
  84
  89
  94
  139
  145
  151
  157
  164
  172
  180
  188
  196
  206
  215
  225
  236
  247
  259
  272
  285
  299
  313
  329
EBITDA, $m
  96
  123
  126
  130
  134
  138
  143
  149
  154
  160
  167
  174
  181
  189
  197
  206
  215
  225
  235
  246
  257
  269
  282
  296
  310
  325
  340
  357
  374
  392
  411
Interest expense (income), $m
  11
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  76
Earnings before tax, $m
  29
  42
  45
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  69
  112
  116
  121
  126
  131
  136
  142
  148
  155
  162
  169
  176
  184
  192
  201
  210
  220
  230
  241
  252
Tax expense, $m
  7
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
Net income, $m
  22
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  82
  85
  88
  92
  96
  100
  104
  108
  113
  118
  123
  129
  134
  140
  147
  154
  161
  168
  176
  184

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,300
  1,327
  1,364
  1,404
  1,449
  1,497
  1,550
  1,607
  1,668
  1,734
  1,804
  1,878
  1,957
  2,041
  2,130
  2,225
  2,325
  2,430
  2,541
  2,659
  2,783
  2,914
  3,051
  3,196
  3,349
  3,510
  3,679
  3,857
  4,044
  4,241
  4,448
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,295
  1,327
  1,364
  1,404
  1,449
  1,497
  1,550
  1,607
  1,668
  1,734
  1,804
  1,878
  1,957
  2,041
  2,130
  2,225
  2,325
  2,430
  2,541
  2,659
  2,783
  2,914
  3,051
  3,196
  3,349
  3,510
  3,679
  3,857
  4,044
  4,241
  4,448
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.615
  1.615
  1.614
  1.615
  1.615
  1.615
  1.615
  1.615
  1.615
  1.615
  1.615
  1.615
  1.615
  1.615
  1.615
  1.615
  1.615
  1.615
  1.615
  1.615
  1.615
  1.615
  1.615
  1.615
  1.615
  1.615
  1.615
  1.615
  1.615
  1.615
  1.615
Average production assets, $m
  270
  276
  284
  293
  302
  312
  323
  335
  348
  361
  376
  391
  408
  425
  444
  463
  484
  506
  529
  554
  580
  607
  636
  666
  698
  731
  766
  804
  843
  884
  927
Working capital, $m
  370
  390
  401
  413
  426
  440
  456
  472
  490
  510
  530
  552
  575
  600
  626
  654
  683
  714
  747
  782
  818
  856
  897
  939
  984
  1,032
  1,081
  1,134
  1,189
  1,247
  1,307
Total debt, $m
  473
  487
  508
  531
  557
  586
  616
  649
  685
  723
  763
  806
  852
  901
  953
  1,007
  1,065
  1,126
  1,191
  1,259
  1,331
  1,407
  1,487
  1,571
  1,659
  1,753
  1,851
  1,954
  2,063
  2,177
  2,297
Total liabilities, $m
  755
  770
  791
  814
  840
  869
  899
  932
  968
  1,006
  1,046
  1,089
  1,135
  1,184
  1,236
  1,290
  1,348
  1,409
  1,474
  1,542
  1,614
  1,690
  1,770
  1,854
  1,942
  2,036
  2,134
  2,237
  2,346
  2,460
  2,580
Total equity, $m
  544
  557
  573
  590
  608
  629
  651
  675
  701
  728
  758
  789
  822
  857
  895
  934
  976
  1,021
  1,067
  1,117
  1,169
  1,224
  1,282
  1,342
  1,407
  1,474
  1,545
  1,620
  1,699
  1,781
  1,868
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,299
  1,327
  1,364
  1,404
  1,448
  1,498
  1,550
  1,607
  1,669
  1,734
  1,804
  1,878
  1,957
  2,041
  2,131
  2,224
  2,324
  2,430
  2,541
  2,659
  2,783
  2,914
  3,052
  3,196
  3,349
  3,510
  3,679
  3,857
  4,045
  4,241
  4,448
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.869
  0.870
  0.890
  0.900
  0.920
  0.930
  0.950
  0.960
  0.980
  0.990
  1.010
  1.020
  1.040
  1.050
  1.060
  1.080
  1.090
  1.100
  1.120
  1.130
  1.140
  1.150
  1.160
  1.170
  1.180
  1.190
  1.200
  1.210
  1.210
  1.220
  1.230
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.416
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  22
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  82
  85
  88
  92
  96
  100
  104
  108
  113
  118
  123
  129
  134
  140
  147
  154
  161
  168
  176
  184
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  58
  64
  65
  65
  66
  67
  68
  69
  70
  71
  73
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  83
Funds from operations, $m
  -32
  95
  97
  99
  102
  105
  108
  111
  115
  119
  123
  117
  121
  126
  132
  137
  143
  149
  156
  162
  170
  177
  185
  194
  203
  212
  222
  232
  243
  255
  267
Change in working capital, $m
  -63
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
Cash from operations, $m
  31
  90
  86
  88
  89
  91
  93
  95
  97
  100
  102
  95
  98
  102
  105
  109
  114
  118
  123
  128
  133
  139
  145
  151
  158
  165
  172
  180
  188
  197
  206
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
New CAPEX, $m
  -34
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -92
  -31
  -33
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -111
  -116
  -122
Free cash flow, $m
  -61
  59
  54
  54
  54
  54
  54
  54
  54
  55
  56
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
  51
  53
  54
  56
  58
  60
  62
  64
  67
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  47
  19
  21
  24
  26
  28
  31
  33
  35
  38
  41
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
  89
  93
  98
  103
  109
  114
  120
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  43
  19
  21
  24
  26
  28
  31
  33
  35
  38
  41
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
  89
  93
  98
  103
  109
  114
  120
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -18
  78
  75
  77
  79
  82
  84
  87
  90
  93
  96
  89
  93
  96
  100
  105
  109
  114
  119
  124
  130
  136
  142
  148
  155
  162
  170
  178
  186
  195
  204
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -25
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  64
  60
  60
  61
  61
  62
  63
  64
  65
  67
  58
  59
  61
  63
  65
  67
  70
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  103
  108
  112
  117
Discount rate, %
 
  7.70
  8.09
  8.49
  8.91
  9.36
  9.83
  10.32
  10.83
  11.38
  11.95
  12.54
  13.17
  13.83
  14.52
  15.25
  16.01
  16.81
  17.65
  18.53
  19.46
  20.43
  21.45
  22.52
  23.65
  24.83
  26.07
  27.38
  28.75
  30.18
  31.69
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  60
  51
  47
  43
  39
  35
  32
  28
  25
  22
  16
  13
  11
  9
  8
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

PharMerica Corporation operates as an institutional pharmacy services company in the United States. The company offers services to healthcare facilities; pharmacy management services to hospitals; specialty infusion services to patients outside hospitals; and oncology pharmacy services. It purchases, repackages, and dispenses prescription and non-prescription pharmaceuticals in accordance with physician orders and delivers such medication to healthcare facilities for administration to individual patients and residents. The company also provides hospital pharmacy management services, including hospital pharmacy operations, regulatory and financial management services, and clinical pharmacy programs; consultant pharmacist services and medical records services; and care management and other related services to patients, oncology practices, and hospitals. It operates 99 institutional, 19 specialty infusion, and 4 specialty oncology pharmacies in 45 states. The company serves institutional healthcare providers, such as skilled nursing facilities, nursing centers, assisted living facilities, hospitals, individuals receiving in-home care, and other long-term alternative care providers. PharMerica Corporation was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  PharMerica (PMC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 32.7
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book 1.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 23.2
Price to Free Cash Flow -239.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 41.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 4.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 84%
Total Debt to Equity 86.9%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.4%
Return On Total Capital 2.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.4%
Return On Equity 4.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Asset Turnover 1.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 15.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.7%
EBITDA Margin 4.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Operating Margin 1.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Pre-Tax Margin 1.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.5%
Net Profit Margin 1.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1%
Effective Tax Rate 24.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

PMC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PMC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2091 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by PharMerica. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of PharMerica. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PMC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.7%, whose default value for PMC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of PharMerica, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of PharMerica.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PMC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 97.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PMC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for PharMerica.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for PharMerica. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PMC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PMC are equal to 12.9%.

Life of production assets of 11.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in PharMerica operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PMC is equal to 18.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $544 million for PharMerica - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 30.922 million for PharMerica is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of PharMerica at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ PharMerica Acquires CareMed Specialty Pharmacy   [Mar-16-17 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ Pharmerica increases goal for merger revenue in Q4 earnings call   [Feb-24-17 02:45PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Pharmerica increases goal for merger revenue in Q4 earnings call   [02:45PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ PharMerica beats 4Q profit forecasts   [08:28AM  Associated Press]
▶ Should You Avoid PharMerica Corporation (PMC)?   [Dec-05-16 02:22PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ What can Pharmerica do to get buyers to swipe right?   [Aug-30-16 11:20AM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Why PharMerica Soared 13.4% Today   [Aug-24-16 08:23PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Report: Louisville's Pharmerica may sell   [05:03PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ One of Pharmerica's top execs plans to retire   [08:46AM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ PharMerica wants the Supreme Court to rethink this decision   [May-17-16 11:50AM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Pharmerica's growth strategy is really generic   [May-13-16 09:05AM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ PharMerica's 1Q earnings fell sharply but beat expectations   [May-06-16 02:20PM  at bizjournals.com]
Stock chart of PMC Financial statements of PMC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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