Intrinsic value of Insulet - PODD

Previous Close

$75.18

  Intrinsic Value

$44.17

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-41%

Previous close

$75.18

 
Intrinsic value

$44.17

 
Up/down potential

-41%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of PODD stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  39.02
  28.40
  26.06
  23.95
  22.06
  20.35
  18.82
  17.44
  16.19
  15.07
  14.07
  13.16
  12.34
  11.61
  10.95
  10.35
  9.82
  9.34
  8.90
  8.51
  8.16
  7.84
  7.56
  7.30
  7.07
  6.87
  6.68
  6.51
  6.36
  6.22
  6.10
Revenue, $m
  367
  471
  594
  736
  899
  1,082
  1,285
  1,509
  1,754
  2,018
  2,302
  2,605
  2,926
  3,266
  3,624
  3,999
  4,391
  4,801
  5,229
  5,674
  6,137
  6,618
  7,119
  7,639
  8,179
  8,740
  9,324
  9,932
  10,563
  11,221
  11,905
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  306
  384
  475
  579
  696
  827
  970
  1,127
  1,296
  1,477
  1,667
  1,873
  2,091
  2,319
  2,560
  2,811
  3,073
  3,347
  3,632
  3,928
  4,236
  4,557
  4,889
  5,235
  5,595
  5,969
  6,357
  6,762
  7,182
  7,621
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  149
  152
  156
  160
  164
  168
  172
  177
  181
  186
  190
  195
  200
  205
  210
  215
  221
  226
  232
  238
  244
  250
  256
  262
  269
  276
  282
  289
  297
  304
Total operating expenses, $m
  380
  455
  536
  631
  739
  860
  995
  1,142
  1,304
  1,477
  1,663
  1,857
  2,068
  2,291
  2,524
  2,770
  3,026
  3,294
  3,573
  3,864
  4,166
  4,480
  4,807
  5,145
  5,497
  5,864
  6,245
  6,639
  7,051
  7,479
  7,925
Operating income, $m
  -13
  17
  57
  105
  159
  221
  290
  367
  450
  541
  639
  747
  858
  976
  1,099
  1,229
  1,365
  1,507
  1,656
  1,810
  1,971
  2,138
  2,312
  2,493
  2,681
  2,877
  3,080
  3,292
  3,512
  3,742
  3,981
EBITDA, $m
  1
  27
  69
  118
  175
  239
  311
  390
  477
  571
  673
  781
  896
  1,018
  1,146
  1,281
  1,422
  1,570
  1,724
  1,884
  2,051
  2,224
  2,405
  2,593
  2,788
  2,990
  3,201
  3,421
  3,650
  3,887
  4,135
Interest expense (income), $m
  4
  12
  4
  6
  8
  10
  13
  15
  18
  22
  25
  29
  33
  38
  42
  47
  52
  57
  63
  69
  75
  81
  88
  94
  101
  109
  116
  124
  133
  141
  150
Earnings before tax, $m
  -27
  5
  53
  99
  152
  211
  278
  352
  432
  520
  614
  718
  825
  938
  1,057
  1,182
  1,313
  1,450
  1,593
  1,741
  1,896
  2,057
  2,225
  2,399
  2,580
  2,768
  2,964
  3,168
  3,380
  3,601
  3,831
Tax expense, $m
  0
  1
  14
  27
  41
  57
  75
  95
  117
  140
  166
  194
  223
  253
  285
  319
  355
  391
  430
  470
  512
  555
  601
  648
  697
  747
  800
  855
  913
  972
  1,034
Net income, $m
  -29
  4
  39
  72
  111
  154
  203
  257
  315
  379
  448
  524
  602
  685
  772
  863
  959
  1,058
  1,163
  1,271
  1,384
  1,502
  1,624
  1,751
  1,883
  2,021
  2,164
  2,312
  2,467
  2,628
  2,796

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  299
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  457
  203
  256
  317
  387
  466
  553
  650
  755
  869
  991
  1,121
  1,260
  1,406
  1,560
  1,721
  1,890
  2,067
  2,251
  2,442
  2,642
  2,849
  3,064
  3,288
  3,521
  3,763
  4,014
  4,275
  4,547
  4,830
  5,125
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  158
  203
  256
  317
  387
  466
  553
  650
  755
  869
  991
  1,121
  1,260
  1,406
  1,560
  1,721
  1,890
  2,067
  2,251
  2,442
  2,642
  2,849
  3,064
  3,288
  3,521
  3,763
  4,014
  4,275
  4,547
  4,830
  5,125
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.323
  2.320
  2.320
  2.322
  2.323
  2.322
  2.324
  2.322
  2.323
  2.322
  2.323
  2.324
  2.322
  2.323
  2.323
  2.324
  2.323
  2.323
  2.323
  2.324
  2.323
  2.323
  2.323
  2.323
  2.323
  2.323
  2.323
  2.323
  2.323
  2.323
  2.323
Average production assets, $m
  24
  31
  39
  48
  58
  70
  84
  98
  114
  131
  150
  169
  190
  212
  236
  260
  285
  312
  340
  369
  399
  430
  463
  497
  532
  568
  606
  646
  687
  729
  774
Working capital, $m
  314
  19
  24
  30
  37
  44
  53
  62
  72
  83
  94
  107
  120
  134
  149
  164
  180
  197
  214
  233
  252
  271
  292
  313
  335
  358
  382
  407
  433
  460
  488
Total debt, $m
  333
  122
  169
  224
  287
  358
  437
  524
  618
  721
  831
  948
  1,073
  1,204
  1,343
  1,488
  1,640
  1,799
  1,965
  2,137
  2,317
  2,503
  2,697
  2,898
  3,108
  3,325
  3,552
  3,787
  4,032
  4,286
  4,552
Total liabilities, $m
  394
  183
  230
  285
  348
  419
  498
  585
  679
  782
  892
  1,009
  1,134
  1,265
  1,404
  1,549
  1,701
  1,860
  2,026
  2,198
  2,378
  2,564
  2,758
  2,959
  3,169
  3,386
  3,613
  3,848
  4,093
  4,347
  4,613
Total equity, $m
  63
  20
  26
  32
  39
  47
  55
  65
  75
  87
  99
  112
  126
  141
  156
  172
  189
  207
  225
  244
  264
  285
  306
  329
  352
  376
  401
  428
  455
  483
  513
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  457
  203
  256
  317
  387
  466
  553
  650
  754
  869
  991
  1,121
  1,260
  1,406
  1,560
  1,721
  1,890
  2,067
  2,251
  2,442
  2,642
  2,849
  3,064
  3,288
  3,521
  3,762
  4,014
  4,276
  4,548
  4,830
  5,126
Debt-to-equity ratio
  5.286
  5.990
  6.610
  7.080
  7.420
  7.690
  7.900
  8.060
  8.190
  8.300
  8.380
  8.460
  8.520
  8.570
  8.610
  8.650
  8.680
  8.700
  8.730
  8.750
  8.770
  8.790
  8.800
  8.810
  8.830
  8.840
  8.850
  8.860
  8.870
  8.870
  8.880
Adjusted equity ratio
  -1.494
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -29
  4
  39
  72
  111
  154
  203
  257
  315
  379
  448
  524
  602
  685
  772
  863
  959
  1,058
  1,163
  1,271
  1,384
  1,502
  1,624
  1,751
  1,883
  2,021
  2,164
  2,312
  2,467
  2,628
  2,796
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  14
  10
  12
  14
  16
  18
  21
  24
  27
  30
  34
  34
  38
  42
  47
  52
  57
  62
  68
  74
  80
  86
  93
  99
  106
  114
  121
  129
  137
  146
  155
Funds from operations, $m
  2
  14
  51
  86
  126
  172
  224
  280
  342
  410
  482
  558
  640
  727
  819
  915
  1,016
  1,121
  1,231
  1,345
  1,464
  1,588
  1,717
  1,850
  1,990
  2,134
  2,285
  2,441
  2,604
  2,774
  2,951
Change in working capital, $m
  -14
  4
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
Cash from operations, $m
  16
  10
  46
  80
  120
  165
  215
  271
  332
  399
  470
  546
  627
  713
  804
  900
  1,000
  1,104
  1,213
  1,327
  1,445
  1,568
  1,696
  1,829
  1,967
  2,111
  2,261
  2,417
  2,579
  2,747
  2,923
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -5
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -17
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -30
  -34
  -38
  -42
  -47
  -52
  -57
  -62
  -68
  -74
  -80
  -86
  -93
  -99
  -106
  -114
  -121
  -129
  -137
  -146
New CAPEX, $m
  -22
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -178
  -12
  -14
  -17
  -21
  -24
  -27
  -32
  -36
  -40
  -44
  -50
  -55
  -60
  -65
  -71
  -78
  -84
  -90
  -97
  -104
  -111
  -119
  -127
  -134
  -143
  -152
  -160
  -170
  -180
  -191
Free cash flow, $m
  -162
  -2
  31
  63
  100
  141
  188
  240
  297
  359
  426
  496
  572
  653
  738
  828
  922
  1,020
  1,123
  1,230
  1,341
  1,457
  1,578
  1,703
  1,833
  1,968
  2,109
  2,256
  2,408
  2,567
  2,733
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  175
  -211
  48
  55
  63
  71
  79
  87
  95
  102
  110
  117
  125
  132
  139
  145
  152
  159
  166
  172
  179
  187
  194
  201
  209
  218
  226
  235
  245
  255
  265
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  5
  252
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  177
  41
  48
  55
  63
  71
  79
  87
  95
  102
  110
  117
  125
  132
  139
  145
  152
  159
  166
  172
  179
  187
  194
  201
  209
  218
  226
  235
  245
  255
  265
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  15
  39
  79
  118
  162
  212
  267
  327
  391
  461
  535
  613
  697
  785
  877
  973
  1,074
  1,179
  1,289
  1,402
  1,521
  1,644
  1,771
  1,904
  2,042
  2,186
  2,336
  2,491
  2,653
  2,822
  2,998
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -29
  -256
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  299
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  82
  74
  112
  155
  204
  258
  317
  381
  450
  523
  600
  683
  770
  862
  957
  1,057
  1,162
  1,270
  1,383
  1,501
  1,623
  1,750
  1,882
  2,019
  2,162
  2,310
  2,465
  2,626
  2,794
  2,968
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  79
  67
  97
  128
  158
  187
  214
  238
  258
  274
  285
  291
  293
  289
  281
  269
  253
  234
  213
  191
  168
  145
  123
  103
  84
  67
  53
  41
  30
  22
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

Insulet Corporation is engaged in the development, manufacturing and sale of the OmniPod Insulin Management System (the OmniPod System), an insulin delivery system for people with insulin-dependent diabetes. The Omnipod System features a self-adhesive disposable tubeless Omnipod device, which is worn on the body for approximately three days at a time and its wireless companion, the handheld Personal Diabetes Manager (PDM). The Omnipod System features two discreet devices that eliminate the need for a bulky pump, tubing and separate blood glucose meter, provides for virtually pain-free automated cannula insertion, communicates wirelessly and integrates a blood glucose meter. The Omnipod System is a discreet two part design, the Omnipod device (Pod) and the PDM that eliminates the need for the external tubing required with conventional pumps. The Pod is a self-adhesive device that the patient fills with insulin and wears directly on the body.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Insulet (PODD)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -149
Price to Sales 11.8
Price to Book 68.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 270
Price to Free Cash Flow -720
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 39%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 100%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 25.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 528.6%
Total Debt to Equity 528.6%
Interest Coverage -6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -6.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -15.8%
Return On Total Capital -9.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -20.7%
Return On Equity -59.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -78.3%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 57.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 54.3%
EBITDA Margin -2.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.5%
Operating Margin -3.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -12%
Pre-Tax Margin -7.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -17.1%
Net Profit Margin -7.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -19.5%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

PODD stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PODD stock intrinsic value calculation we used $367 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Insulet. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Insulet. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PODD stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 28.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for PODD is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Insulet, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Insulet.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PODD stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 65.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $145 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PODD stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Insulet.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Insulet. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PODD stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PODD are equal to 6.5%.

Life of production assets of 4.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Insulet operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PODD is equal to 4.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $63 million for Insulet - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 58.696 million for Insulet is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Insulet at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Here's Why Insulet Corporation Jumped Today   [Jan-08-18 02:48PM  Motley Fool]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Insulet Corp. : December 19, 2017   [Dec-19-17 01:48PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Insulet Corp. : November 28, 2017   [Nov-28-17 01:05PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Insulet Corp. : November 13, 2017   [Nov-13-17 01:02PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Here's Why Insulet Corporation's Investors Are Pumped   [Nov-03-17 12:22PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Insulet reports 3Q loss   [Nov-02-17 04:59PM  Associated Press]
▶ The 3 Best Diabetes Stocks to Buy in 2018   [Oct-30-17 09:33AM  Motley Fool]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Insulet Corp. : October 20, 2017   [Oct-20-17 10:23AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Insulet Corp. : October 9, 2017   [Oct-09-17 11:56AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Insulet Breaks Ground on New U.S. Manufacturing Facility   [Sep-28-17 06:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Insulet reports 2Q loss   [Aug-03-17 05:39PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Insulet Corp. : July 7, 2017   [Jul-07-17 03:24PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Insulet Corp. : June 26, 2017   [Jun-26-17 04:44PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Insulet Corp. : June 15, 2017   [Jun-15-17 03:00PM  Capital Cube]
Financial statements of PODD
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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