Intrinsic value of Insulet - PODD

Previous Close

$61.58

  Intrinsic Value

$38.36

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-38%

Previous close

$61.58

 
Intrinsic value

$38.36

 
Up/down potential

-38%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of PODD stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  39.02
  26.40
  24.26
  22.33
  20.60
  19.04
  17.64
  16.37
  15.24
  14.21
  13.29
  12.46
  11.72
  11.04
  10.44
  9.90
  9.41
  8.97
  8.57
  8.21
  7.89
  7.60
  7.34
  7.11
  6.90
  6.71
  6.54
  6.38
  6.24
  6.12
  6.01
Revenue, $m
  367
  464
  576
  705
  850
  1,012
  1,191
  1,386
  1,597
  1,824
  2,066
  2,324
  2,596
  2,883
  3,184
  3,499
  3,828
  4,171
  4,529
  4,901
  5,287
  5,689
  6,107
  6,541
  6,992
  7,461
  7,949
  8,456
  8,984
  9,534
  10,107
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  301
  373
  455
  548
  652
  766
  891
  1,026
  1,172
  1,327
  1,488
  1,662
  1,845
  2,038
  2,240
  2,450
  2,670
  2,899
  3,137
  3,384
  3,642
  3,909
  4,187
  4,476
  4,776
  5,088
  5,413
  5,751
  6,103
  6,469
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  149
  152
  156
  160
  164
  168
  172
  177
  181
  186
  190
  195
  200
  205
  210
  215
  221
  226
  232
  238
  244
  250
  256
  262
  269
  276
  282
  289
  297
  304
Total operating expenses, $m
  380
  450
  525
  611
  708
  816
  934
  1,063
  1,203
  1,353
  1,513
  1,678
  1,857
  2,045
  2,243
  2,450
  2,665
  2,891
  3,125
  3,369
  3,622
  3,886
  4,159
  4,443
  4,738
  5,045
  5,364
  5,695
  6,040
  6,400
  6,773
Operating income, $m
  -13
  14
  51
  94
  142
  196
  256
  322
  394
  471
  554
  646
  739
  838
  941
  1,049
  1,162
  1,281
  1,404
  1,532
  1,665
  1,804
  1,948
  2,098
  2,254
  2,416
  2,585
  2,761
  2,944
  3,135
  3,333
EBITDA, $m
  1
  24
  63
  107
  157
  213
  276
  344
  419
  499
  585
  676
  773
  875
  982
  1,095
  1,212
  1,335
  1,463
  1,596
  1,734
  1,878
  2,028
  2,183
  2,345
  2,513
  2,689
  2,871
  3,061
  3,258
  3,465
Interest expense (income), $m
  4
  12
  4
  6
  7
  9
  12
  14
  17
  20
  23
  26
  29
  33
  37
  41
  45
  50
  54
  59
  64
  70
  75
  81
  87
  93
  99
  106
  113
  120
  127
Earnings before tax, $m
  -27
  3
  47
  88
  135
  187
  245
  308
  377
  452
  531
  620
  710
  805
  904
  1,008
  1,117
  1,231
  1,349
  1,473
  1,601
  1,734
  1,873
  2,018
  2,168
  2,324
  2,486
  2,655
  2,831
  3,015
  3,206
Tax expense, $m
  0
  1
  13
  24
  36
  50
  66
  83
  102
  122
  144
  167
  192
  217
  244
  272
  302
  332
  364
  398
  432
  468
  506
  545
  585
  627
  671
  717
  764
  814
  866
Net income, $m
  -29
  2
  34
  64
  98
  136
  179
  225
  276
  330
  388
  453
  518
  587
  660
  736
  816
  899
  985
  1,075
  1,169
  1,266
  1,367
  1,473
  1,582
  1,696
  1,815
  1,938
  2,067
  2,201
  2,340

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  299
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  457
  200
  248
  304
  366
  436
  513
  597
  687
  785
  890
  1,000
  1,118
  1,241
  1,371
  1,506
  1,648
  1,796
  1,950
  2,110
  2,276
  2,449
  2,629
  2,816
  3,010
  3,212
  3,422
  3,640
  3,867
  4,104
  4,351
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  158
  200
  248
  304
  366
  436
  513
  597
  687
  785
  890
  1,000
  1,118
  1,241
  1,371
  1,506
  1,648
  1,796
  1,950
  2,110
  2,276
  2,449
  2,629
  2,816
  3,010
  3,212
  3,422
  3,640
  3,867
  4,104
  4,351
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.323
  2.320
  2.323
  2.319
  2.322
  2.321
  2.322
  2.322
  2.325
  2.324
  2.321
  2.324
  2.322
  2.323
  2.322
  2.323
  2.323
  2.322
  2.323
  2.323
  2.323
  2.323
  2.323
  2.323
  2.323
  2.323
  2.323
  2.323
  2.323
  2.323
  2.323
Average production assets, $m
  24
  30
  37
  46
  55
  66
  77
  90
  104
  119
  134
  151
  169
  187
  207
  227
  249
  271
  294
  319
  344
  370
  397
  425
  454
  485
  517
  550
  584
  620
  657
Working capital, $m
  314
  19
  24
  29
  35
  42
  49
  57
  65
  75
  85
  95
  106
  118
  131
  143
  157
  171
  186
  201
  217
  233
  250
  268
  287
  306
  326
  347
  368
  391
  414
Total debt, $m
  333
  119
  162
  212
  268
  331
  400
  476
  558
  646
  740
  839
  945
  1,056
  1,173
  1,295
  1,422
  1,555
  1,694
  1,838
  1,987
  2,143
  2,305
  2,473
  2,648
  2,830
  3,019
  3,215
  3,420
  3,633
  3,855
Total liabilities, $m
  394
  180
  223
  273
  329
  392
  461
  537
  619
  707
  801
  900
  1,006
  1,117
  1,234
  1,356
  1,483
  1,616
  1,755
  1,899
  2,048
  2,204
  2,366
  2,534
  2,709
  2,891
  3,080
  3,276
  3,481
  3,694
  3,916
Total equity, $m
  63
  20
  25
  30
  37
  44
  51
  60
  69
  79
  89
  100
  112
  124
  137
  151
  165
  180
  195
  211
  228
  245
  263
  282
  301
  321
  342
  364
  387
  410
  435
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  457
  200
  248
  303
  366
  436
  512
  597
  688
  786
  890
  1,000
  1,118
  1,241
  1,371
  1,507
  1,648
  1,796
  1,950
  2,110
  2,276
  2,449
  2,629
  2,816
  3,010
  3,212
  3,422
  3,640
  3,868
  4,104
  4,351
Debt-to-equity ratio
  5.286
  5.950
  6.540
  6.990
  7.330
  7.600
  7.810
  7.980
  8.110
  8.220
  8.310
  8.390
  8.450
  8.510
  8.550
  8.600
  8.630
  8.660
  8.690
  8.710
  8.730
  8.750
  8.770
  8.780
  8.800
  8.810
  8.820
  8.830
  8.840
  8.850
  8.860
Adjusted equity ratio
  -1.494
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -29
  2
  34
  64
  98
  136
  179
  225
  276
  330
  388
  453
  518
  587
  660
  736
  816
  899
  985
  1,075
  1,169
  1,266
  1,367
  1,473
  1,582
  1,696
  1,815
  1,938
  2,067
  2,201
  2,340
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  14
  10
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  22
  25
  28
  31
  30
  34
  37
  41
  45
  50
  54
  59
  64
  69
  74
  79
  85
  91
  97
  103
  110
  117
  124
  131
Funds from operations, $m
  2
  12
  46
  77
  113
  154
  198
  247
  300
  358
  419
  483
  552
  625
  701
  781
  865
  953
  1,044
  1,139
  1,237
  1,340
  1,447
  1,558
  1,673
  1,793
  1,918
  2,048
  2,184
  2,325
  2,472
Change in working capital, $m
  -14
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  23
Cash from operations, $m
  16
  8
  41
  72
  107
  147
  191
  239
  292
  348
  409
  472
  541
  613
  689
  769
  852
  939
  1,029
  1,123
  1,222
  1,324
  1,430
  1,540
  1,655
  1,774
  1,898
  2,027
  2,162
  2,302
  2,448
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -18
  -21
  -24
  -27
  -30
  -34
  -37
  -41
  -45
  -50
  -54
  -59
  -64
  -69
  -74
  -79
  -85
  -91
  -97
  -103
  -110
  -117
  -124
New CAPEX, $m
  -22
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -178
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -18
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -32
  -36
  -40
  -44
  -48
  -53
  -57
  -61
  -66
  -72
  -77
  -83
  -89
  -95
  -101
  -107
  -114
  -121
  -129
  -136
  -144
  -153
  -161
Free cash flow, $m
  -162
  -3
  28
  56
  89
  125
  166
  211
  260
  313
  369
  429
  493
  561
  632
  707
  785
  867
  952
  1,040
  1,133
  1,229
  1,329
  1,432
  1,540
  1,653
  1,770
  1,891
  2,018
  2,150
  2,287
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  175
  -214
  44
  50
  56
  63
  69
  76
  82
  88
  94
  100
  105
  111
  117
  122
  128
  133
  138
  144
  150
  156
  162
  168
  175
  182
  189
  197
  205
  213
  222
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  5
  254
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  177
  40
  44
  50
  56
  63
  69
  76
  82
  88
  94
  100
  105
  111
  117
  122
  128
  133
  138
  144
  150
  156
  162
  168
  175
  182
  189
  197
  205
  213
  222
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  15
  37
  71
  106
  145
  188
  235
  287
  342
  401
  463
  529
  598
  672
  749
  829
  912
  1,000
  1,090
  1,185
  1,283
  1,384
  1,490
  1,601
  1,715
  1,834
  1,958
  2,088
  2,222
  2,363
  2,509
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -29
  -256
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  299
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  80
  67
  101
  139
  181
  228
  278
  333
  391
  453
  518
  587
  659
  736
  815
  898
  985
  1,075
  1,169
  1,266
  1,367
  1,472
  1,582
  1,696
  1,814
  1,937
  2,066
  2,200
  2,339
  2,484
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  77
  61
  88
  114
  140
  165
  188
  208
  225
  237
  246
  250
  251
  247
  239
  228
  214
  198
  180
  161
  141
  122
  104
  86
  71
  57
  44
  34
  26
  19
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

Insulet Corporation is engaged in the development, manufacturing and sale of the OmniPod Insulin Management System (the OmniPod System), an insulin delivery system for people with insulin-dependent diabetes. The Omnipod System features a self-adhesive disposable tubeless Omnipod device, which is worn on the body for approximately three days at a time and its wireless companion, the handheld Personal Diabetes Manager (PDM). The Omnipod System features two discreet devices that eliminate the need for a bulky pump, tubing and separate blood glucose meter, provides for virtually pain-free automated cannula insertion, communicates wirelessly and integrates a blood glucose meter. The Omnipod System is a discreet two part design, the Omnipod device (Pod) and the PDM that eliminates the need for the external tubing required with conventional pumps. The Pod is a self-adhesive device that the patient fills with insulin and wears directly on the body.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Insulet (PODD)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -122
Price to Sales 9.6
Price to Book 56.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 221.1
Price to Free Cash Flow -589.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 39%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 100%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 25.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 528.6%
Total Debt to Equity 528.6%
Interest Coverage -6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -6.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -15.8%
Return On Total Capital -9.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -20.7%
Return On Equity -59.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -78.3%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 57.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 54.3%
EBITDA Margin -2.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.5%
Operating Margin -3.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -12%
Pre-Tax Margin -7.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -17.1%
Net Profit Margin -7.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -19.5%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

PODD stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PODD stock intrinsic value calculation we used $367 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Insulet. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Insulet. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PODD stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 26.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for PODD is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Insulet, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Insulet.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PODD stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 65.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $145 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PODD stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Insulet.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Insulet. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PODD stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PODD are equal to 6.5%.

Life of production assets of 4.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Insulet operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PODD is equal to 4.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $63 million for Insulet - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 58.136 million for Insulet is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Insulet at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to Insulet Corp. : October 20, 2017   [Oct-20-17 10:23AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Insulet Corp. : October 9, 2017   [Oct-09-17 11:56AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Insulet Breaks Ground on New U.S. Manufacturing Facility   [Sep-28-17 06:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Insulet reports 2Q loss   [Aug-03-17 05:39PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Insulet Corp. : July 7, 2017   [Jul-07-17 03:24PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Insulet Corp. : June 26, 2017   [Jun-26-17 04:44PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Insulet Corp. : June 15, 2017   [Jun-15-17 03:00PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Insulet reports 1Q loss   [04:07PM  Associated Press]
▶ Medical device firm Insulet opening manufacturing site in Acton   [Apr-10-17 08:42PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Insulet Corp. : April 7, 2017   [Apr-07-17 05:18PM  Capital Cube]
▶ 3 Top Diabetes Care Stocks to Buy in 2017   [Mar-17-17 08:06AM  Motley Fool]
▶ 3 Top Diabetes Care Stocks to Buy in 2017   [08:06AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Insulet reports 4Q loss   [04:20PM  Associated Press]
▶ Here's Why Insulet Corporation Rose by Double-Digits Today   [Jan-13-17 07:39PM  at Motley Fool]
Financial statements of PODD
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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