Intrinsic value of Insulet - PODD

Previous Close

$54.26

  Intrinsic Value

$92.93

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+71%

  Value-price divergence*

-137%

Previous close

$54.26

 
Intrinsic value

$92.93

 
Up/down potential

+71%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

-137%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of PODD stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  39.02
  25.90
  23.81
  21.93
  20.24
  18.71
  17.34
  16.11
  15.00
  14.00
  13.10
  12.29
  11.56
  10.90
  10.31
  9.78
  9.30
  8.87
  8.49
  8.14
  7.82
  7.54
  7.29
  7.06
  6.85
  6.67
  6.50
  6.35
  6.22
  6.09
  5.98
Revenue, $m
  367
  462
  572
  698
  839
  996
  1,168
  1,356
  1,560
  1,778
  2,011
  2,258
  2,519
  2,794
  3,082
  3,383
  3,698
  4,026
  4,368
  4,723
  5,093
  5,477
  5,876
  6,291
  6,722
  7,170
  7,636
  8,121
  8,626
  9,151
  9,699
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  300
  370
  450
  541
  641
  752
  872
  1,002
  1,142
  1,291
  1,445
  1,613
  1,788
  1,973
  2,166
  2,367
  2,577
  2,796
  3,023
  3,260
  3,506
  3,761
  4,027
  4,303
  4,590
  4,888
  5,198
  5,521
  5,858
  6,208
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  149
  152
  156
  160
  164
  168
  172
  177
  181
  186
  190
  195
  200
  205
  210
  215
  221
  226
  232
  238
  244
  250
  256
  262
  269
  276
  282
  289
  297
  304
Total operating expenses, $m
  380
  449
  522
  606
  701
  805
  920
  1,044
  1,179
  1,323
  1,477
  1,635
  1,808
  1,988
  2,178
  2,376
  2,582
  2,798
  3,022
  3,255
  3,498
  3,750
  4,011
  4,283
  4,565
  4,859
  5,164
  5,480
  5,810
  6,155
  6,512
Operating income, $m
  -13
  14
  50
  91
  138
  190
  248
  312
  381
  455
  534
  622
  712
  806
  904
  1,008
  1,116
  1,228
  1,346
  1,468
  1,595
  1,728
  1,865
  2,008
  2,157
  2,312
  2,473
  2,640
  2,815
  2,997
  3,187
EBITDA, $m
  1
  21
  57
  99
  147
  201
  260
  325
  395
  470
  551
  637
  728
  824
  924
  1,030
  1,140
  1,255
  1,374
  1,499
  1,628
  1,763
  1,903
  2,049
  2,201
  2,358
  2,522
  2,693
  2,871
  3,056
  3,250
Interest expense (income), $m
  4
  12
  15
  19
  24
  29
  35
  42
  49
  56
  65
  73
  83
  93
  103
  114
  125
  137
  149
  162
  175
  189
  204
  219
  234
  250
  267
  285
  303
  322
  342
Earnings before tax, $m
  -27
  2
  34
  72
  114
  161
  213
  270
  332
  398
  469
  549
  629
  713
  801
  894
  991
  1,092
  1,197
  1,306
  1,420
  1,538
  1,662
  1,790
  1,923
  2,061
  2,205
  2,356
  2,512
  2,675
  2,845
Tax expense, $m
  0
  1
  9
  19
  31
  43
  58
  73
  90
  108
  127
  148
  170
  193
  216
  241
  267
  295
  323
  353
  383
  415
  449
  483
  519
  557
  595
  636
  678
  722
  768
Net income, $m
  -29
  1
  25
  52
  83
  117
  156
  197
  242
  291
  343
  401
  459
  521
  585
  653
  723
  797
  874
  953
  1,037
  1,123
  1,213
  1,306
  1,404
  1,505
  1,610
  1,720
  1,834
  1,953
  2,077

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  299
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  457
  575
  712
  869
  1,044
  1,240
  1,455
  1,689
  1,943
  2,214
  2,504
  2,812
  3,137
  3,479
  3,838
  4,213
  4,605
  5,014
  5,440
  5,882
  6,342
  6,821
  7,318
  7,834
  8,371
  8,929
  9,509
  10,113
  10,742
  11,396
  12,078
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  158
  575
  712
  869
  1,044
  1,240
  1,455
  1,689
  1,943
  2,214
  2,504
  2,812
  3,137
  3,479
  3,838
  4,213
  4,605
  5,014
  5,440
  5,882
  6,342
  6,821
  7,318
  7,834
  8,371
  8,929
  9,509
  10,113
  10,742
  11,396
  12,078
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.323
  0.803
  0.803
  0.803
  0.804
  0.803
  0.803
  0.803
  0.803
  0.803
  0.803
  0.803
  0.803
  0.803
  0.803
  0.803
  0.803
  0.803
  0.803
  0.803
  0.803
  0.803
  0.803
  0.803
  0.803
  0.803
  0.803
  0.803
  0.803
  0.803
  0.803
Average production assets, $m
  24
  30
  37
  45
  55
  65
  76
  88
  101
  116
  131
  147
  164
  182
  200
  220
  240
  262
  284
  307
  331
  356
  382
  409
  437
  466
  496
  528
  561
  595
  630
Working capital, $m
  314
  19
  23
  29
  34
  41
  48
  56
  64
  73
  82
  93
  103
  115
  126
  139
  152
  165
  179
  194
  209
  225
  241
  258
  276
  294
  313
  333
  354
  375
  398
Total debt, $m
  333
  435
  553
  688
  839
  1,008
  1,193
  1,395
  1,613
  1,848
  2,098
  2,363
  2,643
  2,938
  3,247
  3,571
  3,909
  4,261
  4,628
  5,009
  5,406
  5,818
  6,247
  6,692
  7,155
  7,636
  8,136
  8,657
  9,199
  9,763
  10,351
Total liabilities, $m
  394
  496
  614
  749
  900
  1,069
  1,254
  1,456
  1,674
  1,909
  2,159
  2,424
  2,704
  2,999
  3,308
  3,632
  3,970
  4,322
  4,689
  5,070
  5,467
  5,879
  6,308
  6,753
  7,216
  7,697
  8,197
  8,718
  9,260
  9,824
  10,412
Total equity, $m
  63
  79
  98
  120
  144
  171
  201
  233
  268
  306
  346
  388
  433
  480
  530
  581
  636
  692
  751
  812
  875
  941
  1,010
  1,081
  1,155
  1,232
  1,312
  1,396
  1,482
  1,573
  1,667
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  457
  575
  712
  869
  1,044
  1,240
  1,455
  1,689
  1,942
  2,215
  2,505
  2,812
  3,137
  3,479
  3,838
  4,213
  4,606
  5,014
  5,440
  5,882
  6,342
  6,820
  7,318
  7,834
  8,371
  8,929
  9,509
  10,114
  10,742
  11,397
  12,079
Debt-to-equity ratio
  5.286
  5.480
  5.630
  5.740
  5.820
  5.890
  5.940
  5.980
  6.020
  6.050
  6.070
  6.090
  6.110
  6.120
  6.130
  6.140
  6.150
  6.160
  6.170
  6.170
  6.180
  6.180
  6.190
  6.190
  6.190
  6.200
  6.200
  6.200
  6.210
  6.210
  6.210
Adjusted equity ratio
  -1.494
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -29
  1
  25
  52
  83
  117
  156
  197
  242
  291
  343
  401
  459
  521
  585
  653
  723
  797
  874
  953
  1,037
  1,123
  1,213
  1,306
  1,404
  1,505
  1,610
  1,720
  1,834
  1,953
  2,077
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  14
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  15
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  31
  33
  36
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  63
Funds from operations, $m
  2
  8
  33
  61
  92
  128
  167
  210
  256
  306
  360
  415
  475
  539
  605
  675
  747
  823
  902
  984
  1,070
  1,159
  1,251
  1,347
  1,447
  1,551
  1,660
  1,772
  1,890
  2,012
  2,140
Change in working capital, $m
  -14
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  22
Cash from operations, $m
  16
  5
  28
  56
  87
  121
  160
  202
  248
  297
  350
  405
  465
  527
  593
  662
  734
  810
  888
  970
  1,055
  1,143
  1,235
  1,330
  1,430
  1,533
  1,640
  1,752
  1,869
  1,991
  2,117
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
New CAPEX, $m
  -22
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -178
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -27
  -29
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -95
Free cash flow, $m
  -162
  -4
  18
  44
  73
  106
  142
  182
  226
  273
  324
  376
  433
  493
  556
  623
  692
  764
  840
  918
  1,000
  1,085
  1,173
  1,265
  1,361
  1,460
  1,564
  1,671
  1,783
  1,900
  2,022
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  175
  102
  118
  135
  152
  168
  185
  202
  218
  234
  250
  265
  280
  295
  309
  324
  338
  352
  367
  382
  397
  412
  428
  445
  463
  481
  500
  521
  542
  564
  588
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  5
  15
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  177
  117
  118
  135
  152
  168
  185
  202
  218
  234
  250
  265
  280
  295
  309
  324
  338
  352
  367
  382
  397
  412
  428
  445
  463
  481
  500
  521
  542
  564
  588
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  15
  113
  136
  178
  224
  274
  328
  384
  444
  507
  574
  641
  713
  788
  866
  946
  1,030
  1,116
  1,206
  1,300
  1,397
  1,497
  1,602
  1,710
  1,823
  1,941
  2,064
  2,192
  2,325
  2,465
  2,610
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -29
  -16
  -19
  -22
  -24
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -90
  -94
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  97
  117
  157
  200
  247
  298
  352
  409
  470
  534
  599
  668
  741
  816
  894
  976
  1,060
  1,148
  1,239
  1,333
  1,431
  1,533
  1,639
  1,749
  1,864
  1,984
  2,109
  2,239
  2,374
  2,516
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  93
  107
  136
  165
  192
  216
  238
  256
  270
  280
  284
  285
  282
  274
  263
  248
  231
  211
  191
  169
  148
  127
  107
  89
  73
  58
  45
  35
  26
  19
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7
  97.7

Insulet Corporation, a medical device company, develops, manufactures, and sells insulin infusion systems for people with insulin-dependent diabetes in the United States. The company offers OmniPod Insulin Management System (OmniPod System), which consists of the OmniPod, an easy-to-use continuous insulin delivery system for people with insulin-dependent diabetes; and personal diabetes manager, a handheld wireless device. It also sells blood glucose testing supplies, insulin pumps, pump supplies, pharmaceuticals, and other products for the management and treatment of diabetes. The company sells and markets its OmniPod System through a combination of direct sales representatives and independent distributors. Insulet Corporation was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Billerica, Massachusetts.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Insulet (PODD)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -107.5
Price to Sales 8.5
Price to Book 49.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 194.9
Price to Free Cash Flow -519.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 39%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 100%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 25.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 528.6%
Total Debt to Equity 528.6%
Interest Coverage -6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -6.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -15.8%
Return On Total Capital -9.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -20.7%
Return On Equity -59.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -78.3%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 57.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 54.3%
EBITDA Margin -2.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.5%
Operating Margin -3.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -12%
Pre-Tax Margin -7.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -17.1%
Net Profit Margin -7.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -19.5%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

PODD stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PODD stock intrinsic value calculation we used $367 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Insulet. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Insulet. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PODD stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 25.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for PODD is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Insulet, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Insulet.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PODD stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 65.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $145 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PODD stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Insulet.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Insulet. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PODD stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PODD are equal to 6.5%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Insulet operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PODD is equal to 4.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $63 million for Insulet - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 54.218 million for Insulet is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Insulet at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Insulet reports 2Q loss   [Aug-03-17 05:39PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Insulet Corp. : July 7, 2017   [Jul-07-17 03:24PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Insulet Corp. : June 26, 2017   [Jun-26-17 04:44PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Insulet Corp. : June 15, 2017   [Jun-15-17 03:00PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Insulet reports 1Q loss   [04:07PM  Associated Press]
▶ Medical device firm Insulet opening manufacturing site in Acton   [Apr-10-17 08:42PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Insulet Corp. : April 7, 2017   [Apr-07-17 05:18PM  Capital Cube]
▶ 3 Top Diabetes Care Stocks to Buy in 2017   [Mar-17-17 08:06AM  Motley Fool]
▶ 3 Top Diabetes Care Stocks to Buy in 2017   [08:06AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Insulet reports 4Q loss   [04:20PM  Associated Press]
▶ Here's Why Insulet Corporation Rose by Double-Digits Today   [Jan-13-17 07:39PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Is Insulet Corporation (PODD) A Good Stock To Buy?   [04:01AM  at Insider Monkey]
Stock chart of PODD Financial statements of PODD
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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