Intrinsic value of Pool - POOL

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$119.62

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$119.62

 
Intrinsic value

$70.77

 
Up/down potential

-41%

 
Rating

sell

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of POOL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 5.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  8.80
  7.20
  6.98
  6.78
  6.60
  6.44
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.95
  5.85
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.19
  5.18
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.12
  5.10
Revenue, $m
  2,571
  2,756
  2,948
  3,148
  3,356
  3,573
  3,798
  4,032
  4,276
  4,530
  4,795
  5,072
  5,361
  5,662
  5,977
  6,306
  6,649
  7,009
  7,385
  7,779
  8,191
  8,622
  9,074
  9,548
  10,044
  10,563
  11,108
  11,679
  12,278
  12,906
  13,565
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,226
  2,380
  2,540
  2,706
  2,879
  3,060
  3,247
  3,443
  3,646
  3,859
  4,062
  4,293
  4,534
  4,786
  5,050
  5,325
  5,613
  5,914
  6,229
  6,559
  6,905
  7,267
  7,646
  8,043
  8,459
  8,896
  9,353
  9,833
  10,335
  10,863
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  250
  256
  263
  269
  276
  283
  290
  297
  305
  312
  320
  328
  336
  345
  353
  362
  371
  381
  390
  400
  410
  420
  431
  441
  452
  464
  475
  487
  499
  512
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,315
  2,476
  2,636
  2,803
  2,975
  3,155
  3,343
  3,537
  3,740
  3,951
  4,171
  4,382
  4,621
  4,870
  5,131
  5,403
  5,687
  5,984
  6,295
  6,619
  6,959
  7,315
  7,687
  8,077
  8,484
  8,911
  9,360
  9,828
  10,320
  10,834
  11,375
Operating income, $m
  256
  280
  312
  346
  381
  417
  455
  495
  536
  579
  624
  690
  740
  791
  846
  903
  962
  1,025
  1,091
  1,159
  1,232
  1,308
  1,387
  1,471
  1,559
  1,652
  1,749
  1,851
  1,959
  2,072
  2,190
EBITDA, $m
  278
  304
  337
  371
  406
  443
  481
  521
  563
  607
  652
  700
  750
  803
  858
  915
  975
  1,039
  1,105
  1,175
  1,248
  1,325
  1,405
  1,490
  1,579
  1,673
  1,771
  1,874
  1,983
  2,097
  2,217
Interest expense (income), $m
  8
  15
  17
  19
  22
  24
  26
  28
  31
  34
  36
  39
  42
  45
  48
  52
  55
  59
  63
  67
  71
  76
  80
  85
  90
  95
  101
  107
  113
  119
  126
Earnings before tax, $m
  241
  265
  295
  327
  359
  393
  429
  466
  505
  546
  588
  651
  698
  746
  797
  851
  907
  966
  1,028
  1,092
  1,161
  1,232
  1,307
  1,386
  1,469
  1,556
  1,648
  1,744
  1,846
  1,952
  2,064
Tax expense, $m
  93
  72
  80
  88
  97
  106
  116
  126
  136
  147
  159
  176
  188
  201
  215
  230
  245
  261
  277
  295
  313
  333
  353
  374
  397
  420
  445
  471
  498
  527
  557
Net income, $m
  149
  194
  215
  238
  262
  287
  313
  340
  369
  398
  429
  475
  509
  545
  582
  621
  662
  705
  750
  798
  847
  899
  954
  1,012
  1,072
  1,136
  1,203
  1,273
  1,347
  1,425
  1,507

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  22
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  994
  1,042
  1,115
  1,190
  1,269
  1,351
  1,436
  1,524
  1,617
  1,713
  1,813
  1,918
  2,027
  2,141
  2,260
  2,384
  2,514
  2,650
  2,792
  2,941
  3,097
  3,260
  3,431
  3,610
  3,797
  3,994
  4,200
  4,416
  4,642
  4,880
  5,129
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  972
  1,042
  1,115
  1,190
  1,269
  1,351
  1,436
  1,524
  1,617
  1,713
  1,813
  1,918
  2,027
  2,141
  2,260
  2,384
  2,514
  2,650
  2,792
  2,941
  3,097
  3,260
  3,431
  3,610
  3,797
  3,994
  4,200
  4,416
  4,642
  4,880
  5,129
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.645
  2.645
  2.644
  2.645
  2.645
  2.645
  2.645
  2.646
  2.644
  2.644
  2.645
  2.644
  2.645
  2.645
  2.645
  2.645
  2.645
  2.645
  2.645
  2.645
  2.645
  2.645
  2.645
  2.645
  2.645
  2.645
  2.645
  2.645
  2.645
  2.645
  2.645
Average production assets, $m
  55
  58
  62
  66
  70
  75
  80
  85
  90
  95
  101
  107
  113
  119
  126
  132
  140
  147
  155
  163
  172
  181
  191
  200
  211
  222
  233
  245
  258
  271
  285
Working capital, $m
  400
  405
  433
  463
  493
  525
  558
  593
  629
  666
  705
  746
  788
  832
  879
  927
  977
  1,030
  1,086
  1,143
  1,204
  1,267
  1,334
  1,403
  1,476
  1,553
  1,633
  1,717
  1,805
  1,897
  1,994
Total debt, $m
  438
  494
  553
  614
  678
  744
  813
  885
  960
  1,038
  1,119
  1,204
  1,293
  1,385
  1,482
  1,582
  1,688
  1,798
  1,913
  2,034
  2,160
  2,293
  2,431
  2,576
  2,729
  2,888
  3,055
  3,230
  3,414
  3,606
  3,808
Total liabilities, $m
  789
  845
  904
  965
  1,029
  1,095
  1,164
  1,236
  1,311
  1,389
  1,470
  1,555
  1,644
  1,736
  1,833
  1,933
  2,039
  2,149
  2,264
  2,385
  2,511
  2,644
  2,782
  2,927
  3,080
  3,239
  3,406
  3,581
  3,765
  3,957
  4,159
Total equity, $m
  205
  197
  211
  225
  240
  255
  271
  288
  306
  324
  343
  362
  383
  405
  427
  451
  475
  501
  528
  556
  585
  616
  648
  682
  718
  755
  794
  835
  877
  922
  969
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  994
  1,042
  1,115
  1,190
  1,269
  1,350
  1,435
  1,524
  1,617
  1,713
  1,813
  1,917
  2,027
  2,141
  2,260
  2,384
  2,514
  2,650
  2,792
  2,941
  3,096
  3,260
  3,430
  3,609
  3,798
  3,994
  4,200
  4,416
  4,642
  4,879
  5,128
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.137
  2.510
  2.630
  2.730
  2.830
  2.920
  3.000
  3.070
  3.140
  3.210
  3.270
  3.320
  3.370
  3.420
  3.470
  3.510
  3.550
  3.590
  3.630
  3.660
  3.690
  3.720
  3.750
  3.780
  3.800
  3.830
  3.850
  3.870
  3.890
  3.910
  3.930
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.188
  0.189
  0.189
  0.189
  0.189
  0.189
  0.189
  0.189
  0.189
  0.189
  0.189
  0.189
  0.189
  0.189
  0.189
  0.189
  0.189
  0.189
  0.189
  0.189
  0.189
  0.189
  0.189
  0.189
  0.189
  0.189
  0.189
  0.189
  0.189
  0.189
  0.189

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  149
  194
  215
  238
  262
  287
  313
  340
  369
  398
  429
  475
  509
  545
  582
  621
  662
  705
  750
  798
  847
  899
  954
  1,012
  1,072
  1,136
  1,203
  1,273
  1,347
  1,425
  1,507
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  22
  24
  24
  25
  25
  26
  26
  26
  27
  27
  28
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
Funds from operations, $m
  149
  217
  240
  263
  287
  313
  339
  367
  396
  426
  457
  485
  520
  556
  594
  634
  675
  719
  765
  813
  863
  917
  972
  1,031
  1,092
  1,157
  1,225
  1,296
  1,372
  1,451
  1,534
Change in working capital, $m
  -16
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  55
  58
  61
  63
  66
  70
  73
  76
  80
  84
  88
  92
  97
Cash from operations, $m
  165
  233
  212
  234
  257
  281
  306
  332
  360
  388
  418
  445
  477
  512
  548
  585
  625
  666
  709
  755
  803
  853
  906
  961
  1,019
  1,081
  1,145
  1,213
  1,284
  1,358
  1,437
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
New CAPEX, $m
  -34
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -56
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -40
Free cash flow, $m
  109
  224
  202
  224
  246
  270
  294
  320
  347
  375
  404
  429
  461
  495
  530
  566
  605
  645
  688
  732
  779
  828
  879
  933
  990
  1,050
  1,113
  1,179
  1,248
  1,321
  1,397
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  109
  57
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  85
  88
  92
  97
  101
  105
  110
  115
  121
  126
  132
  139
  145
  152
  159
  167
  175
  184
  193
  202
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -167
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -50
  57
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  85
  88
  92
  97
  101
  105
  110
  115
  121
  126
  132
  139
  145
  152
  159
  167
  175
  184
  193
  202
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  59
  281
  261
  285
  310
  336
  363
  392
  421
  453
  485
  514
  550
  587
  626
  667
  710
  756
  803
  853
  905
  960
  1,018
  1,078
  1,142
  1,209
  1,280
  1,354
  1,431
  1,513
  1,599
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  51
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  21
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  289
  247
  271
  295
  321
  347
  375
  404
  434
  466
  494
  529
  566
  604
  644
  686
  730
  776
  825
  876
  929
  986
  1,045
  1,107
  1,172
  1,241
  1,313
  1,389
  1,468
  1,552
Discount rate, %
 
  7.30
  7.67
  8.05
  8.45
  8.87
  9.32
  9.78
  10.27
  10.79
  11.32
  11.89
  12.49
  13.11
  13.77
  14.45
  15.18
  15.93
  16.73
  17.57
  18.45
  19.37
  20.34
  21.35
  22.42
  23.54
  24.72
  25.96
  27.25
  28.62
  30.05
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  270
  213
  215
  213
  210
  203
  195
  185
  173
  159
  144
  129
  114
  99
  85
  72
  59
  48
  38
  30
  23
  17
  12
  9
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Pool Corporation distributes swimming pool supplies, equipment, and related leisure products in North America, Europe, South America, and Australia. It provides approximately 160,000 national brand and its own-branded products. The company offers maintenance products, including chemicals, supplies, and pool accessories; repair and replacement parts for pool equipment, such as cleaners, filters, heaters, pumps, and lights; packaged pool kits comprising walls, liners, braces, and coping for in-ground and above-ground pools; pool equipment and components for new pool construction and the remodeling of existing pools; and irrigation and landscape products consisting of irrigation system components and professional lawn care equipment and supplies. It also provides building materials for use in pool installations and remodeling, including concrete, plumbing and electrical components, functional and decorative pool surfaces, decking materials, tiles, hardscapes, and natural stones; and commercial products, such as ASME heaters, safety equipment, and commercial pumps and filters. In addition, the company offers discretionary recreational and related outdoor lifestyle products that enhance consumersÂ’ use and enjoyment of outdoor living spaces, such as spas, grills, and components for outdoor kitchens. It sells its products through sales centers to swimming pool remodelers and builders; specialty retailers that sell swimming pool supplies; swimming pool repair and service businesses; landscape construction and maintenance contractors; and golf course, and other commercial customers. Pool Corporation was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Covington, Louisiana.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Pool (POOL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 33
Price to Sales 1.9
Price to Book 24
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 29.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 37.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 8.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 17.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 12.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 22
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 213.2%
Total Debt to Equity 213.7%
Interest Coverage 31
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 16%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.6%
Return On Total Capital 24.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.3%
Return On Equity 64.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 52.6%
Asset Turnover 2.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 28.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.7%
EBITDA Margin 10.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.8%
Operating Margin 10%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.7%
Net Profit Margin 5.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Effective Tax Rate 38.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.6%
Payout Ratio 33.6%

POOL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the POOL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2571 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Pool. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Pool. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our POOL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.3%, whose default value for POOL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Pool, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Pool.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of POOL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 80.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $244 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for POOL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Pool.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Pool. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the POOL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for POOL are equal to 2.1%.

Life of production assets of 10.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Pool operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for POOL is equal to 14.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $205 million for Pool - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 41.398 million for Pool is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Pool at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.0 billion.


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The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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