Intrinsic value of Power Integrations - POWI

Previous Close

$68.70

  Intrinsic Value

$39.29

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-43%

  Value-price divergence*

-17%

Previous close

$68.70

 
Intrinsic value

$39.29

 
Up/down potential

-43%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-17%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of POWI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  12.50
  19.30
  17.87
  16.58
  15.42
  14.38
  13.44
  12.60
  11.84
  11.16
  10.54
  9.99
  9.49
  9.04
  8.63
  8.27
  7.94
  7.65
  7.38
  7.15
  6.93
  6.74
  6.56
  6.41
  6.27
  6.14
  6.03
  5.92
  5.83
  5.75
  5.67
Revenue, $m
  387
  462
  544
  634
  732
  838
  950
  1,070
  1,197
  1,330
  1,470
  1,617
  1,771
  1,931
  2,097
  2,271
  2,451
  2,639
  2,834
  3,036
  3,247
  3,465
  3,693
  3,929
  4,176
  4,432
  4,699
  4,978
  5,268
  5,571
  5,887
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  374
  439
  511
  588
  671
  760
  855
  955
  1,060
  1,171
  1,278
  1,399
  1,526
  1,657
  1,794
  1,937
  2,085
  2,239
  2,399
  2,565
  2,738
  2,918
  3,105
  3,300
  3,502
  3,713
  3,933
  4,163
  4,402
  4,652
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  27
  27
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  51
  52
  53
  55
Total operating expenses, $m
  340
  401
  466
  539
  617
  700
  790
  886
  987
  1,092
  1,204
  1,312
  1,434
  1,562
  1,694
  1,832
  1,976
  2,125
  2,280
  2,441
  2,608
  2,782
  2,963
  3,151
  3,347
  3,550
  3,762
  3,984
  4,215
  4,455
  4,707
Operating income, $m
  48
  61
  78
  96
  116
  137
  160
  184
  210
  237
  266
  305
  336
  369
  403
  439
  476
  514
  554
  595
  638
  683
  730
  778
  829
  882
  936
  994
  1,053
  1,115
  1,180
EBITDA, $m
  72
  80
  99
  119
  141
  165
  190
  217
  245
  276
  307
  340
  375
  411
  449
  488
  529
  571
  616
  662
  709
  759
  810
  864
  920
  978
  1,039
  1,102
  1,168
  1,237
  1,309
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
Earnings before tax, $m
  49
  61
  77
  95
  115
  135
  158
  182
  207
  234
  262
  300
  331
  363
  396
  431
  467
  504
  543
  584
  626
  670
  716
  763
  813
  864
  918
  974
  1,032
  1,093
  1,156
Tax expense, $m
  1
  16
  21
  26
  31
  37
  43
  49
  56
  63
  71
  81
  89
  98
  107
  116
  126
  136
  147
  158
  169
  181
  193
  206
  219
  233
  248
  263
  279
  295
  312
Net income, $m
  48
  45
  56
  69
  84
  99
  115
  133
  151
  171
  191
  219
  241
  265
  289
  314
  341
  368
  397
  426
  457
  489
  522
  557
  593
  631
  670
  711
  753
  798
  844

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  250
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  554
  363
  427
  498
  575
  658
  746
  840
  940
  1,045
  1,155
  1,270
  1,391
  1,517
  1,648
  1,784
  1,926
  2,073
  2,226
  2,385
  2,550
  2,722
  2,901
  3,087
  3,280
  3,482
  3,691
  3,910
  4,138
  4,376
  4,624
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  304
  363
  427
  498
  575
  658
  746
  840
  940
  1,045
  1,155
  1,270
  1,391
  1,517
  1,648
  1,784
  1,926
  2,073
  2,226
  2,385
  2,550
  2,722
  2,901
  3,087
  3,280
  3,482
  3,691
  3,910
  4,138
  4,376
  4,624
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.273
  1.273
  1.274
  1.273
  1.273
  1.274
  1.273
  1.274
  1.273
  1.273
  1.273
  1.273
  1.273
  1.273
  1.272
  1.273
  1.273
  1.273
  1.273
  1.273
  1.273
  1.273
  1.273
  1.273
  1.273
  1.273
  1.273
  1.273
  1.273
  1.273
  1.273
Average production assets, $m
  85
  101
  119
  138
  160
  183
  207
  233
  261
  290
  321
  353
  386
  421
  457
  495
  534
  575
  618
  662
  708
  755
  805
  857
  910
  966
  1,024
  1,085
  1,148
  1,214
  1,283
Working capital, $m
  274
  29
  34
  39
  45
  52
  59
  66
  74
  82
  91
  100
  110
  120
  130
  141
  152
  164
  176
  188
  201
  215
  229
  244
  259
  275
  291
  309
  327
  345
  365
Total debt, $m
  0
  10
  21
  33
  46
  60
  74
  90
  107
  125
  143
  162
  183
  204
  226
  249
  272
  297
  323
  350
  377
  406
  436
  468
  500
  534
  569
  606
  644
  684
  726
Total liabilities, $m
  51
  61
  72
  84
  97
  111
  125
  141
  158
  176
  194
  213
  234
  255
  277
  300
  323
  348
  374
  401
  428
  457
  487
  519
  551
  585
  620
  657
  695
  735
  777
Total equity, $m
  503
  302
  356
  415
  479
  547
  621
  699
  782
  869
  961
  1,057
  1,157
  1,262
  1,371
  1,484
  1,602
  1,725
  1,852
  1,984
  2,122
  2,265
  2,414
  2,568
  2,729
  2,897
  3,071
  3,253
  3,443
  3,641
  3,847
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  554
  363
  428
  499
  576
  658
  746
  840
  940
  1,045
  1,155
  1,270
  1,391
  1,517
  1,648
  1,784
  1,925
  2,073
  2,226
  2,385
  2,550
  2,722
  2,901
  3,087
  3,280
  3,482
  3,691
  3,910
  4,138
  4,376
  4,624
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.030
  0.060
  0.080
  0.100
  0.110
  0.120
  0.130
  0.140
  0.140
  0.150
  0.150
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.170
  0.170
  0.170
  0.170
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.832
  0.832
  0.832
  0.832
  0.832
  0.832
  0.832
  0.832
  0.832
  0.832
  0.832
  0.832
  0.832
  0.832
  0.832
  0.832
  0.832
  0.832
  0.832
  0.832
  0.832
  0.832
  0.832
  0.832
  0.832
  0.832
  0.832
  0.832
  0.832
  0.832
  0.832

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  48
  45
  56
  69
  84
  99
  115
  133
  151
  171
  191
  219
  241
  265
  289
  314
  341
  368
  397
  426
  457
  489
  522
  557
  593
  631
  670
  711
  753
  798
  844
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  24
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  30
  33
  35
  38
  41
  35
  39
  42
  46
  50
  53
  58
  62
  66
  71
  76
  81
  86
  91
  97
  102
  109
  115
  121
  128
Funds from operations, $m
  103
  64
  77
  92
  109
  126
  145
  165
  186
  209
  232
  254
  280
  307
  335
  364
  394
  426
  458
  493
  528
  565
  603
  643
  684
  727
  772
  819
  868
  919
  972
Change in working capital, $m
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
Cash from operations, $m
  98
  59
  72
  87
  103
  120
  138
  158
  179
  200
  224
  245
  271
  297
  325
  353
  383
  414
  446
  480
  515
  551
  589
  628
  669
  711
  756
  802
  850
  900
  953
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -39
  -42
  -46
  -50
  -53
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -71
  -76
  -81
  -86
  -91
  -97
  -102
  -109
  -115
  -121
New CAPEX, $m
  -12
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -69
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -117
  -24
  -28
  -32
  -35
  -39
  -43
  -47
  -51
  -55
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -74
  -78
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -119
  -126
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -155
  -163
  -172
  -181
  -190
Free cash flow, $m
  -19
  35
  44
  55
  68
  81
  95
  111
  128
  145
  164
  181
  202
  223
  246
  270
  294
  320
  346
  374
  403
  433
  464
  496
  530
  565
  601
  639
  678
  720
  763
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  7
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  7
  14
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -13
  49
  55
  67
  80
  95
  110
  127
  144
  163
  182
  201
  222
  245
  268
  293
  318
  345
  372
  401
  431
  462
  494
  527
  562
  598
  636
  676
  717
  760
  804
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -74
  -49
  -54
  -59
  -64
  -69
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -109
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -127
  -132
  -138
  -143
  -149
  -155
  -161
  -168
  -175
  -182
  -190
  -198
  -207
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  250
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  250
  1
  8
  17
  26
  37
  49
  62
  76
  91
  105
  122
  140
  159
  179
  200
  222
  245
  268
  293
  319
  345
  373
  401
  431
  462
  494
  527
  562
  598
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  240
  1
  7
  14
  20
  27
  33
  38
  43
  48
  50
  52
  53
  53
  53
  51
  48
  45
  41
  37
  33
  29
  24
  20
  17
  13
  11
  8
  6
  5
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6

Power Integrations, Inc. designs, develops, and markets analog and mixed-signal integrated circuits, and other electronic components and circuitry used in high-voltage power conversion. The company offers a range of alternating current to direct current (DC) power conversion products that address power supply ranging from less than 1 watt of output to approximately 500 watts of output for mobile-device chargers, consumer appliances, utility meters, LCD monitors, main and standby power supplies for desktop computers and TVs, LED lamps, and other consumer and industrial applications. It also provides high-voltage diodes; and high-voltage gate-driver products under the SCALE and SCALE-2 product-family names. In addition, the company offers monolithic high-voltage DC-DC power conversion ICs designed for use in power-over-Ethernet powered devices, such as voice-over-IP phones and security cameras, as well as network hubs, line cards, servers, digital PBX phones, and DC-DC converter modules and industrial controls. Power Integrations, Inc. serves communications, computer, consumer, and industrial markets. The company sells its products to original equipment manufacturers and merchant power supply manufacturers directly, as well as through a network of independent sales representatives and distributors worldwide. Power Integrations, Inc. was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Power Integrations (POWI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 41.9
Price to Sales 5.2
Price to Book 4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 20.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 23.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 12.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -45.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.7%
Return On Total Capital 10.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.1%
Return On Equity 10.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.1%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 49.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 51.4%
EBITDA Margin 18.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.8%
Operating Margin 12.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 12.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.4%
Net Profit Margin 12.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.6%
Effective Tax Rate 2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.1%
Payout Ratio 31.3%

POWI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the POWI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $387 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Power Integrations. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Power Integrations. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our POWI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 19.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for POWI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Power Integrations, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Power Integrations.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of POWI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 81.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $26 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for POWI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Power Integrations.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Power Integrations. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the POWI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for POWI are equal to 21.8%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Power Integrations operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for POWI is equal to 6.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $503 million for Power Integrations - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 28.638 million for Power Integrations is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Power Integrations at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.0 billion.

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Stock chart of POWI Financial statements of POWI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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