Intrinsic value of PetroQuest Energy - PQ

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$1.77

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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$1.77

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of PQ stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -42.24
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  67
  118
  121
  124
  128
  132
  136
  140
  145
  151
  157
  163
  169
  176
  184
  192
  200
  209
  219
  228
  239
  250
  262
  274
  287
  301
  315
  330
  346
  363
  381
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  104
  106
  109
  112
  116
  119
  123
  128
  133
  138
  143
  149
  155
  162
  169
  176
  184
  192
  201
  210
  220
  230
  241
  252
  264
  277
  290
  304
  319
  334
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  157
  104
  106
  109
  112
  116
  119
  123
  128
  133
  138
  143
  149
  155
  162
  169
  176
  184
  192
  201
  210
  220
  230
  241
  252
  264
  277
  290
  304
  319
  334
Operating income, $m
  -90
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
EBITDA, $m
  -61
  80
  81
  84
  86
  89
  91
  94
  98
  101
  105
  110
  114
  119
  124
  129
  135
  141
  147
  154
  161
  168
  176
  184
  193
  202
  212
  222
  233
  244
  256
Interest expense (income), $m
  33
  33
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  35
  37
  40
  43
Earnings before tax, $m
  -90
  -18
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  12
  12
  12
  12
  12
  11
  11
  11
  11
  10
  10
  10
  9
  9
  8
  8
  7
  7
  6
  6
  5
  5
  4
  3
Tax expense, $m
  1
  0
  4
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
Net income, $m
  -91
  -18
  10
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  7
  7
  7
  7
  6
  6
  6
  5
  5
  5
  4
  4
  3
  3
  2

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  28
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  145
  236
  241
  247
  254
  262
  270
  280
  290
  300
  312
  324
  337
  351
  366
  382
  399
  417
  435
  455
  476
  498
  521
  546
  572
  599
  628
  658
  689
  723
  758
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  117
  236
  241
  247
  254
  262
  270
  280
  290
  300
  312
  324
  337
  351
  366
  382
  399
  417
  435
  455
  476
  498
  521
  546
  572
  599
  628
  658
  689
  723
  758
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.573
  0.500
  0.502
  0.502
  0.504
  0.504
  0.504
  0.500
  0.500
  0.503
  0.503
  0.503
  0.501
  0.501
  0.503
  0.503
  0.501
  0.501
  0.503
  0.501
  0.502
  0.502
  0.503
  0.502
  0.502
  0.503
  0.502
  0.502
  0.502
  0.502
  0.503
Average production assets, $m
  130
  438
  448
  459
  472
  486
  502
  519
  538
  558
  579
  602
  626
  652
  680
  709
  740
  773
  808
  845
  884
  925
  968
  1,013
  1,061
  1,112
  1,165
  1,221
  1,280
  1,342
  1,407
Working capital, $m
  -37
  -100
  -102
  -105
  -108
  -111
  -115
  -119
  -123
  -127
  -132
  -138
  -143
  -149
  -155
  -162
  -169
  -177
  -185
  -193
  -202
  -211
  -221
  -232
  -243
  -254
  -266
  -279
  -292
  -307
  -322
Total debt, $m
  294
  17
  22
  28
  34
  41
  48
  57
  66
  75
  86
  97
  109
  121
  135
  149
  164
  180
  197
  215
  233
  253
  274
  296
  320
  344
  370
  397
  426
  456
  487
Total liabilities, $m
  396
  212
  217
  223
  229
  236
  243
  252
  261
  270
  281
  292
  304
  316
  330
  344
  359
  375
  392
  410
  428
  448
  469
  491
  515
  539
  565
  592
  621
  651
  682
Total equity, $m
  -251
  24
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  145
  236
  241
  248
  254
  262
  270
  280
  290
  300
  312
  324
  338
  351
  367
  382
  399
  417
  436
  456
  476
  498
  521
  546
  572
  599
  628
  658
  690
  723
  758
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -1.171
  0.730
  0.910
  1.120
  1.330
  1.560
  1.790
  2.030
  2.270
  2.510
  2.750
  2.990
  3.220
  3.450
  3.680
  3.900
  4.110
  4.320
  4.520
  4.720
  4.900
  5.080
  5.260
  5.430
  5.590
  5.740
  5.890
  6.040
  6.170
  6.300
  6.430
Adjusted equity ratio
  -2.385
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -91
  -18
  10
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  7
  7
  7
  7
  6
  6
  6
  5
  5
  5
  4
  4
  3
  3
  2
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  29
  65
  67
  69
  70
  73
  75
  77
  80
  83
  86
  90
  93
  97
  101
  106
  111
  115
  121
  126
  132
  138
  144
  151
  158
  166
  174
  182
  191
  200
  210
Funds from operations, $m
  -111
  47
  76
  78
  80
  82
  84
  87
  89
  92
  95
  98
  102
  105
  109
  114
  118
  123
  128
  133
  138
  144
  150
  157
  163
  171
  178
  186
  194
  203
  212
Change in working capital, $m
  -54
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
Cash from operations, $m
  -57
  -211
  79
  81
  83
  85
  88
  90
  93
  97
  100
  104
  107
  111
  116
  120
  125
  130
  136
  141
  147
  153
  160
  167
  174
  182
  190
  199
  208
  217
  227
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -64
  -65
  -67
  -69
  -70
  -73
  -75
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -115
  -121
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -166
  -174
  -182
  -191
  -200
New CAPEX, $m
  -30
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -5
  -73
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -84
  -89
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -150
  -158
  -165
  -173
  -181
  -190
  -199
  -209
  -219
  -230
  -241
  -253
  -265
Free cash flow, $m
  -62
  -284
  3
  2
  1
  0
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -38
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -44
  -330
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  800
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -57
  470
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  32
  34
  37
  39
  42
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -119
  -613
  8
  8
  8
  7
  7
  7
  6
  6
  6
  5
  5
  5
  4
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  0
  0
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  88
  -335
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  148
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  8
  7
  7
  7
  6
  6
  5
  5
  5
  4
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  14.40
  15.12
  15.88
  16.67
  17.50
  18.38
  19.30
  20.26
  21.28
  22.34
  23.46
  24.63
  25.86
  27.15
  28.51
  29.94
  31.43
  33.01
  34.66
  36.39
  38.21
  40.12
  42.12
  44.23
  46.44
  48.76
  51.20
  53.76
  56.45
  59.27
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  49.6
  48.5
  46.7
  44.5
  41.8
  38.9
  35.7
  32.5
  29.3
  26.1
  23.1
  20.3

PetroQuest Energy, Inc. operates as an independent oil and gas company. The company is involved in the acquisition, exploration, and development of oil and gas properties in Gulf Coast Basin and East Texas. As of December 31, 2015, it had estimated proved reserves of 1.8 thousand barrels of oil, 34.8 billion cubic feet equivalent of natural gas liquids, and 132 billion cubic feet of natural gas. The company was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Lafayette, Louisiana.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  PetroQuest Energy (PQ)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -0.4
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book -0.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -0.7
Price to Free Cash Flow -0.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -42.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -67%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -36.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -108%
Total Debt to Equity -117.1%
Interest Coverage -2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -22%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -18.8%
Return On Total Capital -80.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -51.4%
Return On Equity 44%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 779.8%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 56.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 65.2%
EBITDA Margin -41.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -46.4%
Operating Margin -134.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -124.5%
Pre-Tax Margin -134.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -124.5%
Net Profit Margin -135.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -125.5%
Effective Tax Rate -1.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.3%
Payout Ratio -1.1%

PQ stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PQ stock intrinsic value calculation we used $116 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by PetroQuest Energy. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of PetroQuest Energy. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PQ stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 14.4%, whose default value for PQ is calculated based on our internal credit rating of PetroQuest Energy, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of PetroQuest Energy.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PQ stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 87.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PQ stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 9.4% for PetroQuest Energy.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for PetroQuest Energy. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PQ stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PQ are equal to 369.8%.

Life of production assets of 6.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in PetroQuest Energy operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PQ is equal to -84.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-163 million for PetroQuest Energy - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 21.527 million for PetroQuest Energy is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of PetroQuest Energy at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ PetroQuest reports 1Q loss   [May-03-17 05:39PM  Associated Press]
▶ Webcast-OGIS New York for PetroQuest Energy, Inc.   [Mar-08-17 05:56PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ PetroQuest reports 4Q loss   [Mar-07-17 06:20PM  Associated Press]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Crazy About Avinger Inc (AVGR)   [Dec-15-16 06:23AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ [$$] PetroQuest Skips Interest Payment on Bonds   [Sep-02-16 02:01PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ 9 Energy and Metals Stocks Analysts Want You to Buy Now   [Aug-28-16 10:40AM  at 24/7 Wall St.]
Stock chart of PQ Financial statements of PQ Annual reports of PQ
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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