Intrinsic value of ProAssurance - PRA

Previous Close

$61.35

  Intrinsic Value

$85.27

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+39%

  Value-price divergence*

+164%

Previous close

$61.35

 
Intrinsic value

$85.27

 
Up/down potential

+39%

 
Rating

buy

 
Value-price divergence*

+164%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as PRA.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of PRA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  12.56
  6.70
  6.53
  6.38
  6.24
  6.12
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.28
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
Revenue, $m
  0
  946
  1,008
  1,073
  1,139
  1,209
  1,282
  1,357
  1,436
  1,519
  1,605
  1,694
  1,788
  1,886
  1,988
  2,096
  2,208
  2,325
  2,448
  2,577
  2,711
  2,853
  3,000
  3,155
  3,318
  3,488
  3,667
  3,854
  4,051
  4,257
  4,473
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  390
  415
  440
  466
  493
  521
  551
  582
  614
  647
  661
  698
  736
  776
  818
  861
  907
  955
  1,005
  1,058
  1,113
  1,171
  1,231
  1,295
  1,361
  1,431
  1,504
  1,581
  1,661
  1,746
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  339
  348
  356
  365
  374
  384
  393
  403
  413
  424
  434
  445
  456
  468
  479
  491
  504
  516
  529
  542
  556
  570
  584
  599
  614
  629
  645
  661
  677
  694
Total operating expenses, $m
  690
  729
  763
  796
  831
  867
  905
  944
  985
  1,027
  1,071
  1,095
  1,143
  1,192
  1,244
  1,297
  1,352
  1,411
  1,471
  1,534
  1,600
  1,669
  1,741
  1,815
  1,894
  1,975
  2,060
  2,149
  2,242
  2,338
  2,440
Operating income, $m
  197
  217
  246
  276
  308
  342
  377
  413
  451
  492
  534
  599
  645
  694
  745
  799
  855
  914
  976
  1,042
  1,111
  1,183
  1,260
  1,340
  1,425
  1,514
  1,607
  1,706
  1,809
  1,919
  2,034
EBITDA, $m
  229
  247
  277
  308
  341
  375
  410
  448
  487
  528
  571
  616
  663
  712
  765
  819
  877
  937
  1,001
  1,068
  1,138
  1,212
  1,289
  1,371
  1,457
  1,548
  1,643
  1,744
  1,850
  1,961
  2,078
Interest expense (income), $m
  15
  17
  25
  34
  43
  53
  62
  72
  83
  94
  106
  118
  130
  143
  157
  171
  186
  202
  219
  236
  254
  273
  292
  313
  335
  358
  381
  407
  433
  460
  489
Earnings before tax, $m
  176
  200
  220
  242
  265
  289
  314
  341
  368
  397
  428
  481
  515
  550
  588
  627
  668
  712
  758
  806
  857
  911
  967
  1,027
  1,090
  1,156
  1,226
  1,299
  1,377
  1,458
  1,544
Tax expense, $m
  25
  54
  60
  65
  72
  78
  85
  92
  99
  107
  116
  130
  139
  149
  159
  169
  180
  192
  205
  218
  231
  246
  261
  277
  294
  312
  331
  351
  372
  394
  417
Net income, $m
  151
  146
  161
  177
  194
  211
  229
  249
  269
  290
  312
  351
  376
  402
  429
  458
  488
  520
  553
  589
  626
  665
  706
  750
  796
  844
  895
  948
  1,005
  1,065
  1,127

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5,065
  5,408
  5,761
  6,129
  6,511
  6,909
  7,324
  7,756
  8,207
  8,678
  9,169
  9,682
  10,217
  10,777
  11,363
  11,975
  12,616
  13,286
  13,988
  14,723
  15,493
  16,300
  17,145
  18,031
  18,960
  19,934
  20,955
  22,026
  23,149
  24,327
  25,562
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,065
  5,408
  5,761
  6,129
  6,511
  6,909
  7,324
  7,756
  8,207
  8,678
  9,169
  9,682
  10,217
  10,777
  11,363
  11,975
  12,616
  13,286
  13,988
  14,723
  15,493
  16,300
  17,145
  18,031
  18,960
  19,934
  20,955
  22,026
  23,149
  24,327
  25,562
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
Average production assets, $m
  88
  94
  100
  106
  113
  120
  127
  134
  142
  150
  159
  168
  177
  187
  197
  207
  219
  230
  242
  255
  268
  282
  297
  312
  328
  345
  363
  382
  401
  421
  443
Working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total debt, $m
  448
  670
  898
  1,135
  1,382
  1,638
  1,906
  2,185
  2,476
  2,779
  3,096
  3,427
  3,772
  4,133
  4,511
  4,906
  5,319
  5,752
  6,204
  6,679
  7,175
  7,696
  8,241
  8,812
  9,411
  10,039
  10,698
  11,388
  12,113
  12,873
  13,670
Total liabilities, $m
  3,266
  3,488
  3,716
  3,953
  4,200
  4,456
  4,724
  5,003
  5,294
  5,597
  5,914
  6,245
  6,590
  6,951
  7,329
  7,724
  8,137
  8,570
  9,022
  9,497
  9,993
  10,514
  11,059
  11,630
  12,229
  12,857
  13,516
  14,206
  14,931
  15,691
  16,488
Total equity, $m
  1,799
  1,920
  2,045
  2,176
  2,311
  2,453
  2,600
  2,754
  2,914
  3,081
  3,255
  3,437
  3,627
  3,826
  4,034
  4,251
  4,479
  4,717
  4,966
  5,227
  5,500
  5,787
  6,087
  6,401
  6,731
  7,076
  7,439
  7,819
  8,218
  8,636
  9,075
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5,065
  5,408
  5,761
  6,129
  6,511
  6,909
  7,324
  7,757
  8,208
  8,678
  9,169
  9,682
  10,217
  10,777
  11,363
  11,975
  12,616
  13,287
  13,988
  14,724
  15,493
  16,301
  17,146
  18,031
  18,960
  19,933
  20,955
  22,025
  23,149
  24,327
  25,563
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.249
  0.350
  0.440
  0.520
  0.600
  0.670
  0.730
  0.790
  0.850
  0.900
  0.950
  1.000
  1.040
  1.080
  1.120
  1.150
  1.190
  1.220
  1.250
  1.280
  1.300
  1.330
  1.350
  1.380
  1.400
  1.420
  1.440
  1.460
  1.470
  1.490
  1.510
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.355
  0.355
  0.355
  0.355
  0.355
  0.355
  0.355
  0.355
  0.355
  0.355
  0.355
  0.355
  0.355
  0.355
  0.355
  0.355
  0.355
  0.355
  0.355
  0.355
  0.355
  0.355
  0.355
  0.355
  0.355
  0.355
  0.355
  0.355
  0.355
  0.355
  0.355

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  151
  146
  161
  177
  194
  211
  229
  249
  269
  290
  312
  351
  376
  402
  429
  458
  488
  520
  553
  589
  626
  665
  706
  750
  796
  844
  895
  948
  1,005
  1,065
  1,127
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  32
  30
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  35
  36
  37
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
Funds from operations, $m
  130
  176
  192
  209
  226
  244
  263
  283
  304
  326
  349
  368
  394
  420
  449
  479
  510
  543
  578
  614
  653
  693
  736
  781
  828
  878
  931
  987
  1,045
  1,107
  1,172
Change in working capital, $m
  -39
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  169
  176
  192
  209
  226
  244
  263
  283
  304
  326
  349
  368
  394
  420
  449
  479
  510
  543
  578
  614
  653
  693
  736
  781
  828
  878
  931
  987
  1,045
  1,107
  1,172
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -279
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
Free cash flow, $m
  -110
  162
  177
  192
  209
  226
  244
  263
  283
  304
  326
  343
  368
  393
  420
  448
  478
  509
  542
  577
  614
  652
  693
  736
  781
  829
  879
  932
  987
  1,046
  1,108
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  100
  222
  228
  237
  247
  257
  268
  279
  291
  303
  317
  331
  346
  361
  378
  395
  413
  432
  453
  474
  497
  520
  545
  571
  599
  628
  659
  691
  724
  760
  797
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  105
  222
  228
  237
  247
  257
  268
  279
  291
  303
  317
  331
  346
  361
  378
  395
  413
  432
  453
  474
  497
  520
  545
  571
  599
  628
  659
  691
  724
  760
  797
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -5
  384
  404
  429
  455
  483
  512
  542
  574
  607
  643
  674
  713
  754
  798
  843
  891
  942
  995
  1,051
  1,110
  1,173
  1,238
  1,307
  1,380
  1,457
  1,537
  1,622
  1,712
  1,806
  1,905
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  159
  -121
  -125
  -130
  -136
  -141
  -147
  -153
  -160
  -167
  -174
  -182
  -190
  -199
  -208
  -217
  -227
  -238
  -249
  -261
  -273
  -286
  -300
  -315
  -330
  -346
  -362
  -380
  -399
  -418
  -439
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  263
  279
  299
  320
  341
  364
  388
  414
  440
  468
  492
  523
  555
  590
  626
  664
  704
  746
  790
  837
  886
  938
  993
  1,050
  1,111
  1,175
  1,242
  1,313
  1,388
  1,467
Discount rate, %
 
  4.60
  4.83
  5.07
  5.33
  5.59
  5.87
  6.16
  6.47
  6.80
  7.14
  7.49
  7.87
  8.26
  8.67
  9.11
  9.56
  10.04
  10.54
  11.07
  11.62
  12.21
  12.82
  13.46
  14.13
  14.84
  15.58
  16.36
  17.17
  18.03
  18.93
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  252
  254
  258
  260
  260
  259
  256
  251
  244
  235
  222
  211
  198
  184
  169
  154
  138
  123
  108
  93
  79
  66
  54
  44
  35
  27
  21
  16
  11
  8
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

ProAssurance Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides property and casualty insurance, and reinsurance products in the United States. The company operates through Specialty Property and Casualty, Workers' Compensation, and Lloyd's Syndicate segments. It offers professional liability insurance for healthcare professionals and facilities; professional liability insurance for attorneys; liability insurance for medical technology and life sciences risks; and workers' compensation insurance for employers, groups, and associations. The company markets its products through independent agencies and brokers, as well as an internal sales force. ProAssurance Corporation was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Birmingham, Alabama.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  ProAssurance (PRA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 21.6
Price to Sales 3.7
Price to Book 1.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 19.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 19.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 12.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 24.9%
Total Debt to Equity 24.9%
Interest Coverage 13
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Return On Total Capital 6.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Return On Equity 8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.4%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 25.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.7%
Operating Margin 22.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 19.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.3%
Net Profit Margin 17%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.3%
Effective Tax Rate 14.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.4%
Payout Ratio 78.8%

PRA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PRA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $887 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by ProAssurance. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of ProAssurance. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PRA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.6%, whose default value for PRA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of ProAssurance, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of ProAssurance.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PRA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 41.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $331 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PRA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.8% for ProAssurance.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for ProAssurance. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PRA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PRA are equal to 9.9%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in ProAssurance operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PRA is equal to 0%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1799 million for ProAssurance - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 52.815 million for ProAssurance is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of ProAssurance at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ /C O R R E C T I O N -- ProAssurance Corporation/   [May-31-17 06:55PM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to ProAssurance Corp. : May 23, 2017   [May-23-17 01:04PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to ProAssurance Corp. : May 9, 2017   [May-09-17 04:58PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ProAssurance tops 1Q profit forecasts   [05:03AM  Associated Press]
▶ ProAssurance Reports Results for First Quarter 2017   [May-04-17 04:16PM  PR Newswire]
▶ ProAssurance Declares Quarterly Dividend   [04:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ ProAssurance posts 4Q profit   [Feb-22-17 06:26PM  Associated Press]
▶ Is ProAssurance Corporation (PRA) a Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-08-16 02:44PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ ProAssurance Declares Quarterly Dividend   [04:50PM  PR Newswire]
Stock chart of PRA Financial statements of PRA Annual reports of PRA
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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