Intrinsic value of ProAssurance - PRA

Previous Close

$59.45

  Intrinsic Value

$48.20

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-19%

Previous close

$59.45

 
Intrinsic value

$48.20

 
Up/down potential

-19%

 
Rating

hold

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as PRA.

We calculate the intrinsic value of PRA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  12.56
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  0
  905
  926
  949
  976
  1,006
  1,038
  1,073
  1,112
  1,153
  1,197
  1,245
  1,295
  1,349
  1,406
  1,467
  1,531
  1,599
  1,671
  1,747
  1,827
  1,912
  2,001
  2,095
  2,195
  2,299
  2,409
  2,525
  2,647
  2,775
  2,910
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  374
  382
  392
  402
  414
  426
  440
  455
  471
  488
  486
  505
  526
  549
  572
  597
  624
  652
  682
  713
  746
  781
  818
  856
  897
  940
  985
  1,033
  1,083
  1,135
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  339
  348
  356
  365
  374
  384
  393
  403
  413
  424
  434
  445
  456
  468
  479
  491
  504
  516
  529
  542
  556
  570
  584
  599
  614
  629
  645
  661
  677
  694
Total operating expenses, $m
  690
  713
  730
  748
  767
  788
  810
  833
  858
  884
  912
  920
  950
  982
  1,017
  1,051
  1,088
  1,128
  1,168
  1,211
  1,255
  1,302
  1,351
  1,402
  1,455
  1,511
  1,569
  1,630
  1,694
  1,760
  1,829
Operating income, $m
  197
  191
  196
  201
  209
  218
  228
  240
  254
  269
  285
  325
  345
  366
  390
  415
  442
  471
  503
  536
  572
  610
  650
  694
  740
  788
  840
  895
  953
  1,015
  1,080
EBITDA, $m
  229
  222
  226
  233
  240
  249
  260
  273
  286
  302
  319
  338
  358
  381
  405
  431
  458
  488
  520
  555
  591
  630
  672
  716
  763
  813
  866
  922
  981
  1,044
  1,111
Interest expense (income), $m
  15
  17
  20
  23
  26
  30
  34
  38
  43
  49
  54
  61
  67
  74
  82
  90
  98
  107
  117
  127
  138
  149
  161
  173
  186
  200
  215
  230
  247
  264
  282
Earnings before tax, $m
  176
  174
  176
  179
  183
  188
  194
  202
  210
  220
  231
  264
  277
  292
  308
  325
  344
  364
  386
  409
  434
  461
  490
  520
  553
  588
  625
  665
  707
  751
  798
Tax expense, $m
  25
  47
  47
  48
  49
  51
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  71
  75
  79
  83
  88
  93
  98
  104
  110
  117
  124
  132
  141
  149
  159
  169
  179
  191
  203
  216
Net income, $m
  151
  127
  128
  131
  133
  137
  142
  147
  153
  161
  169
  193
  202
  213
  225
  237
  251
  266
  282
  299
  317
  337
  358
  380
  404
  429
  456
  485
  516
  548
  583

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5,065
  5,170
  5,289
  5,425
  5,577
  5,746
  5,932
  6,134
  6,353
  6,588
  6,841
  7,112
  7,400
  7,708
  8,034
  8,381
  8,748
  9,137
  9,548
  9,982
  10,441
  10,925
  11,435
  11,973
  12,540
  13,137
  13,766
  14,427
  15,124
  15,856
  16,626
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,065
  5,170
  5,289
  5,425
  5,577
  5,746
  5,932
  6,134
  6,353
  6,588
  6,841
  7,112
  7,400
  7,708
  8,034
  8,381
  8,748
  9,137
  9,548
  9,982
  10,441
  10,925
  11,435
  11,973
  12,540
  13,137
  13,766
  14,427
  15,124
  15,856
  16,626
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
Average production assets, $m
  88
  90
  92
  94
  97
  100
  103
  106
  110
  114
  119
  123
  128
  134
  139
  145
  152
  158
  165
  173
  181
  189
  198
  207
  217
  228
  238
  250
  262
  275
  288
Working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total debt, $m
  448
  517
  593
  681
  779
  888
  1,008
  1,138
  1,279
  1,431
  1,595
  1,769
  1,955
  2,153
  2,364
  2,588
  2,824
  3,075
  3,340
  3,621
  3,916
  4,229
  4,558
  4,905
  5,270
  5,655
  6,061
  6,488
  6,937
  7,409
  7,906
Total liabilities, $m
  3,266
  3,335
  3,411
  3,499
  3,597
  3,706
  3,826
  3,956
  4,097
  4,249
  4,413
  4,587
  4,773
  4,971
  5,182
  5,406
  5,642
  5,893
  6,158
  6,439
  6,734
  7,047
  7,376
  7,723
  8,088
  8,473
  8,879
  9,306
  9,755
  10,227
  10,724
Total equity, $m
  1,799
  1,835
  1,878
  1,926
  1,980
  2,040
  2,106
  2,178
  2,255
  2,339
  2,429
  2,525
  2,627
  2,736
  2,852
  2,975
  3,106
  3,244
  3,390
  3,544
  3,707
  3,878
  4,060
  4,251
  4,452
  4,664
  4,887
  5,122
  5,369
  5,629
  5,902
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5,065
  5,170
  5,289
  5,425
  5,577
  5,746
  5,932
  6,134
  6,352
  6,588
  6,842
  7,112
  7,400
  7,707
  8,034
  8,381
  8,748
  9,137
  9,548
  9,983
  10,441
  10,925
  11,436
  11,974
  12,540
  13,137
  13,766
  14,428
  15,124
  15,856
  16,626
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.249
  0.280
  0.320
  0.350
  0.390
  0.440
  0.480
  0.520
  0.570
  0.610
  0.660
  0.700
  0.740
  0.790
  0.830
  0.870
  0.910
  0.950
  0.990
  1.020
  1.060
  1.090
  1.120
  1.150
  1.180
  1.210
  1.240
  1.270
  1.290
  1.320
  1.340
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.355
  0.355
  0.355
  0.355
  0.355
  0.355
  0.355
  0.355
  0.355
  0.355
  0.355
  0.355
  0.355
  0.355
  0.355
  0.355
  0.355
  0.355
  0.355
  0.355
  0.355
  0.355
  0.355
  0.355
  0.355
  0.355
  0.355
  0.355
  0.355
  0.355
  0.355

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  151
  127
  128
  131
  133
  137
  142
  147
  153
  161
  169
  193
  202
  213
  225
  237
  251
  266
  282
  299
  317
  337
  358
  380
  404
  429
  456
  485
  516
  548
  583
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  32
  31
  31
  31
  31
  32
  32
  33
  33
  33
  34
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
Funds from operations, $m
  130
  158
  159
  162
  165
  169
  174
  180
  186
  194
  202
  206
  216
  227
  240
  253
  267
  283
  299
  317
  336
  357
  379
  402
  427
  454
  482
  512
  544
  578
  614
Change in working capital, $m
  -39
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  169
  158
  159
  162
  165
  169
  174
  180
  186
  194
  202
  206
  216
  227
  240
  253
  267
  283
  299
  317
  336
  357
  379
  402
  427
  454
  482
  512
  544
  578
  614
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -279
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
Free cash flow, $m
  -110
  147
  148
  150
  152
  156
  160
  165
  171
  178
  186
  189
  198
  208
  220
  232
  245
  260
  275
  292
  310
  329
  350
  372
  395
  420
  447
  475
  505
  537
  571
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  100
  69
  77
  88
  98
  109
  120
  130
  141
  152
  163
  174
  186
  198
  211
  224
  237
  251
  265
  280
  296
  312
  329
  347
  366
  385
  405
  427
  449
  472
  497
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  105
  69
  77
  88
  98
  109
  120
  130
  141
  152
  163
  174
  186
  198
  211
  224
  237
  251
  265
  280
  296
  312
  329
  347
  366
  385
  405
  427
  449
  472
  497
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -5
  216
  224
  237
  251
  265
  280
  296
  312
  330
  349
  363
  384
  407
  430
  456
  482
  510
  540
  572
  606
  641
  679
  719
  761
  805
  852
  902
  954
  1,009
  1,068
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  159
  -36
  -42
  -48
  -54
  -60
  -66
  -72
  -78
  -84
  -90
  -96
  -102
  -109
  -116
  -123
  -130
  -138
  -146
  -154
  -163
  -172
  -181
  -191
  -201
  -212
  -223
  -235
  -247
  -260
  -273
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  179
  182
  189
  196
  205
  214
  224
  235
  246
  259
  267
  282
  297
  314
  332
  352
  372
  394
  418
  443
  469
  498
  528
  559
  593
  629
  667
  707
  749
  794
Discount rate, %
 
  4.60
  4.83
  5.07
  5.33
  5.59
  5.87
  6.16
  6.47
  6.80
  7.14
  7.49
  7.87
  8.26
  8.67
  9.11
  9.56
  10.04
  10.54
  11.07
  11.62
  12.21
  12.82
  13.46
  14.13
  14.84
  15.58
  16.36
  17.17
  18.03
  18.93
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  171
  166
  163
  160
  156
  152
  147
  142
  136
  130
  121
  114
  106
  98
  90
  82
  73
  65
  57
  49
  42
  35
  29
  23
  19
  15
  11
  8
  6
  4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

ProAssurance Corporation (ProAssurance) is a holding company for property and casualty insurance companies. The Company provides professional liability insurance for healthcare professionals and facilities, professional liability insurance for attorneys, liability insurance for medical technology and life sciences risks, and workers' compensation insurance. The Company operates through four segments. The Specialty property and casualty segment includes the Company's professional liability business, and medical technology and life sciences business. The Workers' compensation segment includes its workers' compensation business. Lloyd's Syndicate 1729 (Syndicate 1729) segment includes business of Syndicate 1729, which underwrites risks over a range of property and casualty insurance and reinsurance lines. The Corporate segment includes the Company's investment operations managed at the corporate level and non-premium revenues generated outside of its insurance entities.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  ProAssurance (PRA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 21
Price to Sales 3.6
Price to Book 1.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 18.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 18.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 12.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 24.9%
Total Debt to Equity 24.9%
Interest Coverage 13
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Return On Total Capital 6.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Return On Equity 8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.4%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 25.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.7%
Operating Margin 22.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 19.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.3%
Net Profit Margin 17%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.3%
Effective Tax Rate 14.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.4%
Payout Ratio 78.8%

PRA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PRA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $887 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by ProAssurance. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of ProAssurance. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PRA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.6%, whose default value for PRA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of ProAssurance, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of ProAssurance.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PRA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 41.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $331 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PRA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.8% for ProAssurance.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for ProAssurance. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PRA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PRA are equal to 9.9%.

Life of production assets of 9.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in ProAssurance operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PRA is equal to 0%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1799 million for ProAssurance - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 53.486 million for ProAssurance is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of ProAssurance at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.2 billion.

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RLI RLI 59.14 56.30  hold
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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Is There Now An Opportunity In ProAssurance Corporation (PRA)?   [Nov-07-17 04:13PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ ProAssurance beats Street 3Q forecasts   [Nov-06-17 05:49PM  Associated Press]
▶ ProAssurance Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Sep-06-17 04:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ UAB lands $1.5M gift from major Birmingham company   [03:45PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for August 11th   [Aug-11-17 08:20AM  Zacks]
▶ ProAssurance misses 2Q revenue forecasts   [12:08AM  Associated Press]
▶ ProAssurance misses 2Q revenue forecasts   [Aug-07-17 07:08PM  Associated Press]
▶ /C O R R E C T I O N -- ProAssurance Corporation/   [May-31-17 06:55PM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to ProAssurance Corp. : May 23, 2017   [May-23-17 01:04PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to ProAssurance Corp. : May 9, 2017   [May-09-17 04:58PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ProAssurance tops 1Q profit forecasts   [05:03AM  Associated Press]
▶ ProAssurance Reports Results for First Quarter 2017   [May-04-17 04:16PM  PR Newswire]
▶ ProAssurance Declares Quarterly Dividend   [04:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ ProAssurance posts 4Q profit   [Feb-22-17 06:26PM  Associated Press]
▶ Is ProAssurance Corporation (PRA) a Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-08-16 02:44PM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of PRA
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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