Intrinsic value of Perceptron - PRCP

Previous Close

$7.55

  Intrinsic Value

$0.84

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-89%

Previous close

$7.55

 
Intrinsic value

$0.84

 
Up/down potential

-89%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of PRCP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  13.04
  15.80
  14.72
  13.75
  12.87
  12.09
  11.38
  10.74
  10.17
  9.65
  9.18
  8.77
  8.39
  8.05
  7.75
  7.47
  7.22
  7.00
  6.80
  6.62
  6.46
  6.31
  6.18
  6.06
  5.96
  5.86
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
Revenue, $m
  78
  90
  104
  118
  133
  149
  166
  184
  203
  222
  243
  264
  286
  309
  333
  358
  384
  410
  438
  467
  498
  529
  562
  596
  631
  668
  707
  747
  789
  833
  879
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  103
  118
  134
  151
  169
  189
  209
  230
  252
  275
  298
  323
  349
  376
  405
  434
  464
  496
  529
  563
  598
  635
  674
  714
  756
  799
  845
  892
  942
  994
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  76
  103
  118
  134
  151
  169
  189
  209
  230
  252
  275
  298
  323
  349
  376
  405
  434
  464
  496
  529
  563
  598
  635
  674
  714
  756
  799
  845
  892
  942
  994
Operating income, $m
  2
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -78
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -115
EBITDA, $m
  4
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
Earnings before tax, $m
  1
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -47
  -50
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -89
  -95
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -125
Tax expense, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  0
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -47
  -50
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -89
  -95
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -125

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  71
  76
  88
  100
  113
  126
  141
  156
  171
  188
  205
  223
  242
  261
  282
  303
  325
  347
  371
  395
  421
  448
  475
  504
  534
  565
  598
  632
  668
  705
  744
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  66
  76
  88
  100
  113
  126
  141
  156
  171
  188
  205
  223
  242
  261
  282
  303
  325
  347
  371
  395
  421
  448
  475
  504
  534
  565
  598
  632
  668
  705
  744
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.182
  1.184
  1.182
  1.180
  1.177
  1.183
  1.177
  1.179
  1.187
  1.181
  1.185
  1.184
  1.182
  1.184
  1.181
  1.182
  1.182
  1.182
  1.181
  1.182
  1.183
  1.181
  1.183
  1.183
  1.182
  1.182
  1.182
  1.182
  1.181
  1.182
  1.181
Average production assets, $m
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
  23
  26
  28
  31
  34
  37
  41
  44
  48
  51
  55
  59
  63
  68
  72
  77
  81
  87
  92
  97
  103
  109
  115
  122
  128
  135
Working capital, $m
  23
  23
  27
  30
  34
  38
  43
  47
  52
  57
  62
  68
  73
  79
  85
  92
  98
  105
  112
  120
  127
  135
  144
  153
  162
  171
  181
  191
  202
  213
  225
Total debt, $m
  2
  5
  9
  15
  20
  26
  33
  39
  46
  54
  61
  69
  77
  86
  95
  104
  113
  123
  134
  145
  156
  167
  180
  192
  205
  219
  234
  249
  264
  280
  297
Total liabilities, $m
  31
  34
  38
  44
  49
  55
  62
  68
  75
  83
  90
  98
  106
  115
  124
  133
  142
  152
  163
  174
  185
  196
  209
  221
  234
  248
  263
  278
  293
  309
  326
Total equity, $m
  40
  43
  49
  56
  63
  71
  79
  87
  96
  105
  115
  125
  136
  147
  158
  170
  182
  195
  208
  222
  236
  251
  267
  283
  300
  317
  336
  355
  375
  395
  417
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  71
  77
  87
  100
  112
  126
  141
  155
  171
  188
  205
  223
  242
  262
  282
  303
  324
  347
  371
  396
  421
  447
  476
  504
  534
  565
  599
  633
  668
  704
  743
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.050
  0.110
  0.190
  0.260
  0.320
  0.370
  0.410
  0.450
  0.480
  0.510
  0.530
  0.550
  0.570
  0.580
  0.600
  0.610
  0.620
  0.630
  0.640
  0.650
  0.660
  0.670
  0.670
  0.680
  0.690
  0.690
  0.700
  0.700
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  0
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -47
  -50
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -89
  -95
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -125
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
Funds from operations, $m
  -12
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -55
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -71
  -75
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -100
  -105
  -111
Change in working capital, $m
  -8
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
Cash from operations, $m
  -4
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -48
  -51
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -105
  -110
  -117
  -123
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
Free cash flow, $m
  -5
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -24
  -27
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -42
  -45
  -49
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -73
  -77
  -82
  -87
  -92
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -115
  -122
  -128
  -136
  -143
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  1
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  18
  21
  23
  26
  29
  31
  34
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  54
  58
  62
  66
  70
  75
  80
  84
  90
  95
  100
  106
  112
  118
  125
  132
  139
  147
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  1
  23
  26
  28
  32
  35
  37
  41
  45
  48
  52
  55
  58
  63
  67
  71
  76
  80
  85
  91
  95
  102
  107
  113
  119
  126
  132
  140
  148
  155
  164
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -3
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -1
  -18
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -75
  -80
  -84
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -125
  -132
  -139
  -147
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -9
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -44
  -47
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -71
  -75
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -101
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -126
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -9
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -18
  -18
  -17
  -17
  -16
  -15
  -14
  -13
  -11
  -10
  -9
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  78.2
  61.5
  48.6
  38.6
  30.8
  24.7
  19.8
  16.0
  12.9
  10.5
  8.6
  7.0
  5.7
  4.7
  3.8
  3.2
  2.6
  2.1
  1.8
  1.5
  1.2
  1.0
  0.8
  0.7
  0.6
  0.5
  0.4
  0.3
  0.3
  0.2

Perceptron, Inc. develops, produces and sells a range of automated industrial metrology products and solutions to manufacturing organizations for dimensional gauging, dimensional inspection and three-dimensional (3D) scanning. The Company's products include 3D machine vision solutions, robot guidance, coordinate measuring machines (CMMs), laser scanning and advanced analysis software. The Company's products are categorized as In-Line, Near-Line and Off-Line Measurement Solutions (Measurement Solutions); 3D Scanning Solutions, and Value Added Services. Its In-Line and Near-Line measurement solutions include AutoGauge, AutoFit, AutoScan, AutoGuide and Helix. Its Off-Line measurement solutions include Coord3 and TouchDMIS. Its 3D Scanning Solutions include ScanWorks, ScanR and WheelWorks. Its Value Added Services include training, field service, calibration, launch support services, maintenance agreements and repairs. The Company operates in the Americas, Europe and Asia.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Perceptron (PRCP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 0.9
Price to Book 1.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -17.8
Price to Free Cash Flow -14.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 13%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -50%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 5%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -9%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -14.7%
Return On Equity 0%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -14.7%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 35.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.7%
EBITDA Margin 3.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.1%
Operating Margin 2.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -4%
Pre-Tax Margin 1.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.4%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.6%
Effective Tax Rate 100%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

PRCP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PRCP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $78 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Perceptron. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Perceptron. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PRCP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 15.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for PRCP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Perceptron, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Perceptron.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PRCP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 114.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PRCP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Perceptron.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Perceptron. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PRCP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PRCP are equal to 15.4%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Perceptron operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PRCP is equal to 25.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $40 million for Perceptron - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 9.485 million for Perceptron is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Perceptron at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Perceptron Introduces Helix®evo 3D Scanning Sensor Family   [Oct-18-17 04:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Perceptron posts 4Q profit   [Aug-28-17 09:47PM  Associated Press]
▶ Perceptron to Settle Litigation with 3CEMS   [Jul-19-17 04:45PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Perceptron® Awarded Gauging Project in Mexico   [Jun-07-17 04:32PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Perceptron, Inc. : May 11, 2017   [May-11-17 05:22PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Perceptron reports 3Q loss   [May-08-17 04:59PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Perceptron, Inc. : April 25, 2017   [Apr-25-17 03:46PM  Capital Cube]
▶ 5 of the Best Stocks Under $10 for 2017   [Apr-03-17 04:50PM  Zacks]
▶ Perceptron® Expands Frame Measurement Success   [Mar-30-17 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Perceptron posts 2Q profit   [Feb-06-17 05:32PM  AP]
▶ Perceptrons Coord3® CMM Continues Growth in Aerospace   [Oct-10-16 04:55PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Perceptron reports 4Q loss   [Aug-30-16 05:07PM  AP]
▶ [$$] Money managers seek AI's 'deep learning'   [May-20-16 03:25AM  at Financial Times]
▶ Perceptron Issues Statement on Shareholder Filing   [Mar-17-16 04:20PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Perceptron reports 2Q loss   [Feb-08-16 05:51PM  AP]
▶ Perceptron Announces Appointment of Interim CEO   [Jan-27-16 09:37AM  at noodls]
▶ Is Perceptron, Inc. (PRCP) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Nov-24  12:50PM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of PRCP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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