Intrinsic value of Perficient - PRFT

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$16.63

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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$16.63

 
Intrinsic value

$15.00

 
Up/down potential

-10%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of PRFT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.74
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  487
  497
  508
  521
  536
  552
  570
  589
  610
  633
  657
  683
  711
  741
  772
  805
  841
  878
  917
  959
  1,003
  1,050
  1,099
  1,150
  1,205
  1,262
  1,323
  1,386
  1,453
  1,523
  1,597
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  458
  468
  480
  492
  506
  522
  539
  557
  577
  598
  593
  617
  642
  670
  699
  729
  762
  796
  832
  870
  911
  953
  998
  1,045
  1,095
  1,147
  1,203
  1,261
  1,322
  1,386
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  455
  458
  468
  480
  492
  506
  522
  539
  557
  577
  598
  593
  617
  642
  670
  699
  729
  762
  796
  832
  870
  911
  953
  998
  1,045
  1,095
  1,147
  1,203
  1,261
  1,322
  1,386
Operating income, $m
  32
  38
  40
  42
  43
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  60
  91
  94
  98
  102
  107
  111
  116
  122
  127
  133
  139
  146
  152
  160
  167
  175
  184
  192
  202
  212
EBITDA, $m
  50
  69
  71
  72
  74
  77
  79
  82
  85
  88
  91
  95
  99
  103
  107
  112
  117
  122
  127
  133
  139
  146
  153
  160
  167
  175
  184
  193
  202
  212
  222
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
Earnings before tax, $m
  31
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  52
  54
  57
  88
  92
  95
  99
  104
  108
  113
  118
  123
  128
  134
  140
  147
  154
  161
  169
  177
  185
  194
  203
Tax expense, $m
  11
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  43
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
Net income, $m
  20
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  107
  112
  118
  123
  129
  135
  142
  148

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  10
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  457
  456
  467
  479
  492
  507
  523
  541
  560
  581
  604
  627
  653
  680
  709
  739
  772
  806
  842
  881
  921
  964
  1,009
  1,056
  1,106
  1,159
  1,215
  1,273
  1,334
  1,399
  1,467
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  447
  456
  467
  479
  492
  507
  523
  541
  560
  581
  604
  627
  653
  680
  709
  739
  772
  806
  842
  881
  921
  964
  1,009
  1,056
  1,106
  1,159
  1,215
  1,273
  1,334
  1,399
  1,467
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.089
  1.090
  1.088
  1.088
  1.089
  1.089
  1.090
  1.089
  1.089
  1.090
  1.088
  1.089
  1.089
  1.090
  1.089
  1.089
  1.089
  1.089
  1.089
  1.089
  1.089
  1.089
  1.089
  1.089
  1.090
  1.089
  1.089
  1.089
  1.089
  1.089
  1.089
Average production assets, $m
  58
  59
  60
  62
  63
  65
  67
  70
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  108
  113
  118
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  164
  171
  180
  189
Working capital, $m
  77
  69
  70
  72
  74
  76
  79
  81
  84
  87
  91
  94
  98
  102
  107
  111
  116
  121
  127
  132
  138
  145
  152
  159
  166
  174
  183
  191
  201
  210
  220
Total debt, $m
  32
  34
  36
  39
  42
  45
  49
  53
  57
  61
  66
  71
  77
  83
  89
  96
  103
  111
  118
  127
  136
  145
  155
  165
  176
  188
  200
  213
  226
  240
  255
Total liabilities, $m
  97
  100
  102
  105
  108
  111
  115
  119
  123
  127
  132
  137
  143
  149
  155
  162
  169
  177
  184
  193
  202
  211
  221
  231
  242
  254
  266
  279
  292
  306
  321
Total equity, $m
  359
  356
  364
  374
  384
  396
  409
  423
  438
  454
  471
  490
  510
  531
  554
  577
  603
  630
  658
  688
  719
  753
  788
  825
  864
  905
  949
  994
  1,042
  1,093
  1,146
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  456
  456
  466
  479
  492
  507
  524
  542
  561
  581
  603
  627
  653
  680
  709
  739
  772
  807
  842
  881
  921
  964
  1,009
  1,056
  1,106
  1,159
  1,215
  1,273
  1,334
  1,399
  1,467
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.089
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.110
  0.110
  0.120
  0.120
  0.130
  0.140
  0.140
  0.150
  0.150
  0.160
  0.160
  0.170
  0.170
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.190
  0.190
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781
  0.781

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  20
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  107
  112
  118
  123
  129
  135
  142
  148
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  18
  31
  31
  31
  31
  31
  31
  31
  31
  32
  32
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
Funds from operations, $m
  71
  58
  59
  60
  62
  63
  65
  67
  69
  71
  74
  69
  72
  74
  78
  81
  84
  88
  92
  96
  100
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  132
  138
  144
  151
  159
Change in working capital, $m
  8
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
Cash from operations, $m
  63
  53
  57
  58
  60
  61
  63
  64
  66
  68
  70
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  108
  113
  118
  123
  129
  135
  142
  148
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
New CAPEX, $m
  -6
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -14
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -15
  -15
  -17
  -17
  -17
  -19
Free cash flow, $m
  49
  49
  53
  54
  55
  56
  57
  58
  60
  62
  63
  58
  60
  62
  65
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  94
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
  124
  130
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -24
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -18
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -48
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1
  51
  55
  56
  58
  59
  61
  62
  64
  66
  68
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  100
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  132
  138
  145
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -10
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  10
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  53
  47
  47
  47
  47
  48
  48
  49
  50
  51
  44
  46
  47
  49
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  51
  43
  41
  39
  37
  35
  33
  31
  29
  27
  21
  20
  18
  16
  15
  13
  12
  10
  9
  8
  6
  5
  4
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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Perficient, Inc. provides information technology and management consulting services in the United States. The company designs, builds, and delivers solutions using middleware software products developed by third-party vendors. Its solutions include big data and analytics; technology platform implementation services, including application server selection, architecture planning, installation and configuration, clustering for availability, performance assessment and issue remediation, security services, and technology migrations; and enterprise content management solutions. The company also offers portals and collaboration solutions that include searchable data systems, collaborative systems for process improvement, transaction processing, unified and extended reporting, commerce, content management, and other services; and cloud services comprising architecture, business value and health checks assessments, strategy and road maps, and vendor evaluation and selection services. In addition, it provides enterprise social solutions consisting of ideation and crowdsourcing, mobile apps, employee onboarding, partner and vendor collaboration, user and customer support, expert location/Q&A, and others; and digital marketing services, such as search engine marketing, user experience and design, and conversion rate optimization. Further, the company provides custom applications; business integration; business process management; and customer relationship management solutions. It serves the healthcare, including pharma and life sciences; financial services that include banking and insurance; retail and consumer goods; automotive and transport products; electronics and computer hardware; telecommunications; manufacturing; energy and utilities; business services and leisure; media and entertainment; and other markets. Perficient Inc. was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Perficient (PRFT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 28.2
Price to Sales 1.2
Price to Book 1.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 9.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 2.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 50%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -5.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 8.9%
Total Debt to Equity 8.9%
Interest Coverage 32
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Return On Total Capital 5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.1%
Return On Equity 5.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 31%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.1%
EBITDA Margin 10.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.4%
Operating Margin 6.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Net Profit Margin 4.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Effective Tax Rate 35.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

PRFT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PRFT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $487 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Perficient. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Perficient. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PRFT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for PRFT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Perficient, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Perficient.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PRFT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PRFT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Perficient.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Perficient. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PRFT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PRFT are equal to 11.8%.

Life of production assets of 18.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Perficient operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PRFT is equal to 13.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $359 million for Perficient - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 35.729 million for Perficient is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Perficient at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to Perficient, Inc. : May 12, 2017   [May-12-17 04:21PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Perficient posts 1Q profit   [May-04-17 08:33AM  Associated Press]
▶ Perficient posts 4Q profit   [08:35AM  Associated Press]
▶ IT consultant Perficient makes first acquisition of the year   [Jan-11-17 03:48PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Colorado business consulting firm is bought by Missouri company   [Jan-05-17 11:35AM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Perficient Acquires RAS & Associates   [09:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Perficient Named a Salesforce Platinum Consulting Partner   [Dec-22-16 03:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ Is Perficient, Inc. (PRFT) A Good Stock to Buy?   [Dec-12-16 05:09PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Stocks Rise as Perficient Earns Award (PRFT)   [Nov-08-16 08:11AM  at Investopedia]
▶ Perficient Acquires Bluetube   [09:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Perficient reports strong quarter on services sales   [Aug-05-16 11:10AM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Perficient posts 2Q profit   [09:09AM  AP]
▶ Perficient posts 1Q profit   [08:22AM  AP]
▶ Perficient profit up in Q4, steady for 2015   [Apr-19-16 01:32PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Perficient launches digital agency   [12:20PM  at bizjournals.com]
Stock chart of PRFT Financial statements of PRFT Annual reports of PRFT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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