Intrinsic value of Primoris Services - PRIM

Previous Close

$28.04

  Intrinsic Value

$106.95

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+281%

Previous close

$28.04

 
Intrinsic value

$106.95

 
Up/down potential

+281%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of PRIM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.53
  19.20
  17.78
  16.50
  15.35
  14.32
  13.38
  12.55
  11.79
  11.11
  10.50
  9.95
  9.46
  9.01
  8.61
  8.25
  7.92
  7.63
  7.37
  7.13
  6.92
  6.73
  6.55
  6.40
  6.26
  6.13
  6.02
  5.92
  5.83
  5.74
  5.67
Revenue, $m
  1,997
  2,837
  3,341
  3,893
  4,490
  5,133
  5,820
  6,551
  7,323
  8,137
  8,991
  9,886
  10,821
  11,796
  12,811
  13,868
  14,967
  16,109
  17,296
  18,530
  19,811
  21,144
  22,530
  23,971
  25,472
  27,034
  28,661
  30,357
  32,126
  33,971
  35,896
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,476
  2,912
  3,390
  3,907
  4,464
  5,058
  5,691
  6,359
  7,064
  7,803
  8,558
  9,367
  10,211
  11,091
  12,005
  12,957
  13,945
  14,973
  16,041
  17,150
  18,304
  19,504
  20,752
  22,050
  23,403
  24,811
  26,279
  27,810
  29,408
  31,075
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  203
  208
  212
  217
  222
  227
  232
  237
  242
  247
  253
  258
  264
  270
  276
  282
  288
  294
  301
  308
  314
  321
  328
  335
  343
  350
  358
  366
  374
  382
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,939
  2,679
  3,120
  3,602
  4,124
  4,686
  5,285
  5,923
  6,596
  7,306
  8,050
  8,811
  9,625
  10,475
  11,361
  12,281
  13,239
  14,233
  15,267
  16,342
  17,458
  18,618
  19,825
  21,080
  22,385
  23,746
  25,161
  26,637
  28,176
  29,782
  31,457
Operating income, $m
  58
  158
  221
  291
  366
  448
  535
  628
  727
  831
  941
  1,075
  1,195
  1,320
  1,451
  1,587
  1,728
  1,876
  2,029
  2,188
  2,354
  2,526
  2,705
  2,892
  3,086
  3,288
  3,499
  3,719
  3,949
  4,189
  4,439
EBITDA, $m
  126
  234
  307
  388
  475
  570
  671
  778
  893
  1,013
  1,139
  1,272
  1,410
  1,555
  1,706
  1,863
  2,026
  2,196
  2,373
  2,557
  2,748
  2,947
  3,153
  3,369
  3,593
  3,826
  4,070
  4,324
  4,588
  4,865
  5,154
Interest expense (income), $m
  9
  14
  21
  29
  38
  47
  58
  69
  80
  92
  105
  119
  133
  148
  163
  180
  196
  214
  232
  251
  270
  291
  312
  334
  357
  381
  405
  431
  458
  486
  515
Earnings before tax, $m
  49
  144
  200
  261
  328
  400
  478
  560
  647
  739
  835
  956
  1,062
  1,172
  1,288
  1,407
  1,532
  1,662
  1,797
  1,937
  2,083
  2,235
  2,393
  2,558
  2,729
  2,908
  3,094
  3,288
  3,491
  3,703
  3,924
Tax expense, $m
  21
  39
  54
  71
  89
  108
  129
  151
  175
  199
  225
  258
  287
  317
  348
  380
  414
  449
  485
  523
  562
  603
  646
  691
  737
  785
  835
  888
  943
  1,000
  1,059
Net income, $m
  27
  105
  146
  191
  240
  292
  349
  409
  472
  539
  610
  698
  775
  856
  940
  1,027
  1,118
  1,213
  1,312
  1,414
  1,521
  1,632
  1,747
  1,867
  1,992
  2,123
  2,259
  2,400
  2,548
  2,703
  2,864

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  136
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,171
  1,497
  1,763
  2,054
  2,370
  2,709
  3,071
  3,457
  3,864
  4,294
  4,745
  5,217
  5,710
  6,225
  6,761
  7,318
  7,898
  8,501
  9,127
  9,778
  10,455
  11,158
  11,889
  12,650
  13,441
  14,266
  15,125
  16,020
  16,953
  17,926
  18,943
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,035
  1,497
  1,763
  2,054
  2,370
  2,709
  3,071
  3,457
  3,864
  4,294
  4,745
  5,217
  5,710
  6,225
  6,761
  7,318
  7,898
  8,501
  9,127
  9,778
  10,455
  11,158
  11,889
  12,650
  13,441
  14,266
  15,125
  16,020
  16,953
  17,926
  18,943
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.929
  1.895
  1.895
  1.895
  1.895
  1.895
  1.895
  1.895
  1.895
  1.895
  1.895
  1.895
  1.895
  1.895
  1.895
  1.895
  1.895
  1.895
  1.895
  1.895
  1.895
  1.895
  1.895
  1.895
  1.895
  1.895
  1.895
  1.895
  1.895
  1.895
  1.895
Average production assets, $m
  315
  565
  665
  775
  894
  1,022
  1,158
  1,304
  1,457
  1,619
  1,789
  1,967
  2,153
  2,347
  2,549
  2,760
  2,978
  3,206
  3,442
  3,687
  3,942
  4,208
  4,483
  4,770
  5,069
  5,380
  5,704
  6,041
  6,393
  6,760
  7,143
Working capital, $m
  281
  -119
  -140
  -163
  -189
  -216
  -244
  -275
  -308
  -342
  -378
  -415
  -454
  -495
  -538
  -582
  -629
  -677
  -726
  -778
  -832
  -888
  -946
  -1,007
  -1,070
  -1,135
  -1,204
  -1,275
  -1,349
  -1,427
  -1,508
Total debt, $m
  262
  393
  542
  704
  879
  1,068
  1,270
  1,485
  1,712
  1,951
  2,202
  2,465
  2,740
  3,027
  3,325
  3,636
  3,959
  4,294
  4,643
  5,006
  5,383
  5,774
  6,182
  6,605
  7,046
  7,505
  7,984
  8,482
  9,002
  9,544
  10,110
Total liabilities, $m
  673
  834
  982
  1,144
  1,320
  1,509
  1,711
  1,925
  2,152
  2,392
  2,643
  2,906
  3,181
  3,467
  3,766
  4,076
  4,399
  4,735
  5,084
  5,446
  5,823
  6,215
  6,622
  7,046
  7,487
  7,946
  8,424
  8,923
  9,443
  9,985
  10,551
Total equity, $m
  497
  663
  781
  910
  1,050
  1,200
  1,361
  1,531
  1,712
  1,902
  2,102
  2,311
  2,530
  2,758
  2,995
  3,242
  3,499
  3,766
  4,043
  4,332
  4,631
  4,943
  5,267
  5,604
  5,955
  6,320
  6,700
  7,097
  7,510
  7,941
  8,392
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,170
  1,497
  1,763
  2,054
  2,370
  2,709
  3,072
  3,456
  3,864
  4,294
  4,745
  5,217
  5,711
  6,225
  6,761
  7,318
  7,898
  8,501
  9,127
  9,778
  10,454
  11,158
  11,889
  12,650
  13,442
  14,266
  15,124
  16,020
  16,953
  17,926
  18,943
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.527
  0.590
  0.690
  0.770
  0.840
  0.890
  0.930
  0.970
  1.000
  1.030
  1.050
  1.070
  1.080
  1.100
  1.110
  1.120
  1.130
  1.140
  1.150
  1.160
  1.160
  1.170
  1.170
  1.180
  1.180
  1.190
  1.190
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.349
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  27
  105
  146
  191
  240
  292
  349
  409
  472
  539
  610
  698
  775
  856
  940
  1,027
  1,118
  1,213
  1,312
  1,414
  1,521
  1,632
  1,747
  1,867
  1,992
  2,123
  2,259
  2,400
  2,548
  2,703
  2,864
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  68
  76
  86
  97
  109
  122
  136
  150
  166
  182
  199
  197
  215
  235
  255
  276
  298
  321
  344
  369
  394
  421
  448
  477
  507
  538
  570
  604
  639
  676
  714
Funds from operations, $m
  19
  181
  232
  288
  349
  414
  484
  559
  638
  721
  808
  895
  991
  1,091
  1,195
  1,303
  1,416
  1,534
  1,656
  1,783
  1,915
  2,052
  2,195
  2,344
  2,499
  2,661
  2,829
  3,005
  3,188
  3,379
  3,579
Change in working capital, $m
  -44
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -81
Cash from operations, $m
  63
  200
  253
  311
  374
  441
  513
  589
  670
  755
  844
  932
  1,030
  1,132
  1,237
  1,348
  1,462
  1,582
  1,706
  1,835
  1,969
  2,108
  2,254
  2,405
  2,562
  2,726
  2,897
  3,076
  3,262
  3,457
  3,660
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -47
  -56
  -66
  -77
  -89
  -102
  -116
  -130
  -146
  -162
  -179
  -197
  -215
  -235
  -255
  -276
  -298
  -321
  -344
  -369
  -394
  -421
  -448
  -477
  -507
  -538
  -570
  -604
  -639
  -676
New CAPEX, $m
  -58
  -91
  -100
  -110
  -119
  -128
  -137
  -145
  -154
  -162
  -170
  -178
  -186
  -194
  -202
  -210
  -219
  -227
  -236
  -245
  -255
  -265
  -276
  -287
  -299
  -311
  -324
  -338
  -352
  -367
  -383
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -59
  -138
  -156
  -176
  -196
  -217
  -239
  -261
  -284
  -308
  -332
  -357
  -383
  -409
  -437
  -465
  -495
  -525
  -557
  -589
  -624
  -659
  -697
  -735
  -776
  -818
  -862
  -908
  -956
  -1,006
  -1,059
Free cash flow, $m
  4
  62
  97
  135
  177
  224
  274
  328
  386
  447
  512
  575
  647
  722
  801
  883
  968
  1,057
  1,149
  1,245
  1,345
  1,449
  1,557
  1,670
  1,787
  1,909
  2,036
  2,168
  2,306
  2,450
  2,600
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -14
  134
  148
  162
  176
  189
  202
  215
  227
  239
  251
  263
  275
  287
  299
  311
  323
  336
  349
  363
  377
  392
  407
  424
  441
  459
  478
  499
  520
  542
  566
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -4
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -17
  136
  148
  162
  176
  189
  202
  215
  227
  239
  251
  263
  275
  287
  299
  311
  323
  336
  349
  363
  377
  392
  407
  424
  441
  459
  478
  499
  520
  542
  566
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -14
  199
  245
  297
  353
  413
  476
  543
  613
  687
  763
  838
  922
  1,009
  1,099
  1,193
  1,291
  1,392
  1,498
  1,608
  1,722
  1,841
  1,964
  2,093
  2,228
  2,368
  2,514
  2,666
  2,826
  2,992
  3,166
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -14
  -107
  -118
  -129
  -140
  -150
  -161
  -171
  -181
  -190
  -200
  -209
  -219
  -228
  -237
  -247
  -257
  -267
  -277
  -288
  -300
  -312
  -324
  -337
  -351
  -365
  -380
  -396
  -413
  -431
  -450
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  91
  127
  168
  213
  263
  316
  372
  433
  496
  564
  629
  703
  781
  862
  946
  1,034
  1,125
  1,220
  1,319
  1,422
  1,529
  1,640
  1,756
  1,877
  2,002
  2,133
  2,270
  2,412
  2,561
  2,716
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  88
  116
  146
  176
  204
  229
  251
  270
  285
  296
  299
  300
  297
  289
  278
  263
  245
  225
  203
  181
  158
  136
  115
  96
  78
  62
  49
  37
  28
  20
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8
  99.8

Primoris Services Corporation is a holding company. The Company holds various subsidiaries, through which it operates as a specialty contractor and infrastructure company. The Company provides a range of construction, fabrication, maintenance, replacement, water and wastewater, and engineering services to public utilities, petrochemical companies, energy companies, municipalities, state departments of transportation and other customers. It operates in three segments: the West Construction Services segment (West segment), the East Construction Services segment (East segment) and the Energy segment. The Company installs, replaces, repairs and rehabilitates natural gas, refined product, water and wastewater pipeline systems; large diameter gas and liquid pipeline facilities, and heavy civil projects, earthwork and site development.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Primoris Services (PRIM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 53.6
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 2.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 23
Price to Free Cash Flow 289.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -13.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -7.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 41%
Total Debt to Equity 52.7%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Return On Total Capital 3.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.1%
Return On Equity 5.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.4%
Asset Turnover 1.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 10.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.9%
EBITDA Margin 6.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Operating Margin 2.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 2.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Net Profit Margin 1.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.1%
Effective Tax Rate 42.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.8%
Payout Ratio 40.7%

PRIM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PRIM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2380 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Primoris Services. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Primoris Services. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PRIM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 19.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for PRIM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Primoris Services, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Primoris Services.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PRIM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 87.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $199 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PRIM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Primoris Services.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Primoris Services. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PRIM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PRIM are equal to 19.9%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Primoris Services operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PRIM is equal to -4.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $556 million for Primoris Services - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 51 million for Primoris Services is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Primoris Services at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Why Primoris Services Corporation (NASDAQ:PRIM) Could Be A Buy   [Jun-21-18 12:07PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Dallas co. completes acquisition of Houston energy contractor   [Jun-04-18 09:19AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Primoris Services: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-08-18 10:06AM  Associated Press]
▶ Willbros Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Results   [Mar-29-18 06:35PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Houston energy contractor finds buyer after warning about debt issues   [Mar-28-18 08:32AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Primoris Services posts 4Q profit   [05:01AM  Associated Press]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for January 8th   [Jan-08-18 08:30AM  Zacks]
▶ Primoris Services tops Street 3Q forecasts   [Nov-06-17 06:07PM  Associated Press]
▶ Primoris Services tops Street 2Q forecasts   [Aug-08-17 04:46PM  Associated Press]
Financial statements of PRIM
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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