Intrinsic value of Primoris Services - PRIM

Previous Close

$26.33

  Intrinsic Value

$25.78

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-2%

  Value-price divergence*

-39%

Previous close

$26.33

 
Intrinsic value

$25.78

 
Up/down potential

-2%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence*

-39%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of PRIM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.53
  30.70
  28.13
  25.82
  23.74
  21.86
  20.18
  18.66
  17.29
  16.06
  14.96
  13.96
  13.06
  12.26
  11.53
  10.88
  10.29
  9.76
  9.29
  8.86
  8.47
  8.12
  7.81
  7.53
  7.28
  7.05
  6.84
  6.66
  6.49
  6.35
  6.21
Revenue, $m
  1,997
  2,610
  3,344
  4,208
  5,206
  6,345
  7,625
  9,047
  10,612
  12,316
  14,158
  16,135
  18,243
  20,479
  22,841
  25,326
  27,933
  30,660
  33,507
  36,474
  39,564
  42,779
  46,121
  49,594
  53,203
  56,954
  60,853
  64,906
  69,121
  73,507
  78,072
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,515
  3,219
  4,046
  5,004
  6,095
  7,322
  8,686
  10,186
  11,820
  13,586
  15,468
  17,489
  19,632
  21,897
  24,279
  26,777
  29,392
  32,121
  34,966
  37,928
  41,010
  44,213
  47,543
  51,003
  54,599
  58,336
  62,221
  66,262
  70,467
  74,843
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,939
  2,515
  3,219
  4,046
  5,004
  6,095
  7,322
  8,686
  10,186
  11,820
  13,586
  15,468
  17,489
  19,632
  21,897
  24,279
  26,777
  29,392
  32,121
  34,966
  37,928
  41,010
  44,213
  47,543
  51,003
  54,599
  58,336
  62,221
  66,262
  70,467
  74,843
Operating income, $m
  58
  95
  126
  161
  203
  250
  303
  361
  426
  497
  573
  667
  755
  847
  945
  1,047
  1,155
  1,268
  1,386
  1,509
  1,636
  1,769
  1,908
  2,051
  2,200
  2,356
  2,517
  2,684
  2,859
  3,040
  3,229
EBITDA, $m
  128
  149
  191
  241
  298
  363
  436
  517
  607
  704
  809
  922
  1,043
  1,171
  1,306
  1,448
  1,597
  1,752
  1,915
  2,085
  2,261
  2,445
  2,636
  2,835
  3,041
  3,255
  3,478
  3,710
  3,951
  4,202
  4,463
Interest expense (income), $m
  9
  7
  14
  22
  31
  42
  54
  68
  83
  100
  119
  138
  160
  183
  207
  232
  259
  287
  317
  347
  379
  413
  447
  483
  521
  560
  600
  643
  686
  732
  779
Earnings before tax, $m
  49
  88
  112
  140
  172
  208
  249
  294
  343
  397
  454
  529
  595
  664
  738
  815
  896
  981
  1,069
  1,161
  1,257
  1,357
  1,460
  1,568
  1,679
  1,796
  1,916
  2,042
  2,173
  2,308
  2,450
Tax expense, $m
  21
  24
  30
  38
  46
  56
  67
  79
  93
  107
  123
  143
  161
  179
  199
  220
  242
  265
  289
  314
  339
  366
  394
  423
  453
  485
  517
  551
  587
  623
  661
Net income, $m
  27
  64
  82
  102
  125
  152
  181
  214
  250
  289
  332
  386
  434
  485
  539
  595
  654
  716
  781
  848
  918
  990
  1,066
  1,144
  1,226
  1,311
  1,399
  1,491
  1,586
  1,685
  1,788

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  136
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,171
  1,353
  1,734
  2,181
  2,699
  3,289
  3,953
  4,690
  5,501
  6,385
  7,340
  8,364
  9,457
  10,617
  11,841
  13,129
  14,480
  15,894
  17,370
  18,908
  20,510
  22,177
  23,909
  25,710
  27,581
  29,525
  31,546
  33,647
  35,833
  38,106
  40,473
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,035
  1,353
  1,734
  2,181
  2,699
  3,289
  3,953
  4,690
  5,501
  6,385
  7,340
  8,364
  9,457
  10,617
  11,841
  13,129
  14,480
  15,894
  17,370
  18,908
  20,510
  22,177
  23,909
  25,710
  27,581
  29,525
  31,546
  33,647
  35,833
  38,106
  40,473
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.929
  1.929
  1.928
  1.929
  1.929
  1.929
  1.929
  1.929
  1.929
  1.929
  1.929
  1.929
  1.929
  1.929
  1.929
  1.929
  1.929
  1.929
  1.929
  1.929
  1.929
  1.929
  1.929
  1.929
  1.929
  1.929
  1.929
  1.929
  1.929
  1.929
  1.929
Average production assets, $m
  315
  412
  528
  665
  823
  1,002
  1,205
  1,429
  1,677
  1,946
  2,237
  2,549
  2,882
  3,236
  3,609
  4,002
  4,413
  4,844
  5,294
  5,763
  6,251
  6,759
  7,287
  7,836
  8,406
  8,999
  9,615
  10,255
  10,921
  11,614
  12,335
Working capital, $m
  281
  266
  341
  429
  531
  647
  778
  923
  1,082
  1,256
  1,444
  1,646
  1,861
  2,089
  2,330
  2,583
  2,849
  3,127
  3,418
  3,720
  4,036
  4,363
  4,704
  5,059
  5,427
  5,809
  6,207
  6,620
  7,050
  7,498
  7,963
Total debt, $m
  262
  393
  620
  886
  1,194
  1,545
  1,940
  2,379
  2,861
  3,387
  3,955
  4,565
  5,215
  5,905
  6,633
  7,400
  8,204
  9,045
  9,923
  10,839
  11,792
  12,783
  13,814
  14,885
  15,999
  17,156
  18,358
  19,608
  20,908
  22,261
  23,669
Total liabilities, $m
  673
  805
  1,032
  1,298
  1,606
  1,957
  2,352
  2,791
  3,273
  3,799
  4,367
  4,977
  5,627
  6,317
  7,045
  7,812
  8,616
  9,457
  10,335
  11,251
  12,204
  13,195
  14,226
  15,297
  16,411
  17,568
  18,770
  20,020
  21,320
  22,673
  24,081
Total equity, $m
  497
  548
  702
  883
  1,093
  1,332
  1,601
  1,900
  2,228
  2,586
  2,973
  3,388
  3,830
  4,300
  4,796
  5,317
  5,865
  6,437
  7,035
  7,658
  8,307
  8,982
  9,683
  10,412
  11,170
  11,958
  12,776
  13,627
  14,512
  15,433
  16,391
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,170
  1,353
  1,734
  2,181
  2,699
  3,289
  3,953
  4,691
  5,501
  6,385
  7,340
  8,365
  9,457
  10,617
  11,841
  13,129
  14,481
  15,894
  17,370
  18,909
  20,511
  22,177
  23,909
  25,709
  27,581
  29,526
  31,546
  33,647
  35,832
  38,106
  40,472
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.527
  0.720
  0.880
  1.000
  1.090
  1.160
  1.210
  1.250
  1.280
  1.310
  1.330
  1.350
  1.360
  1.370
  1.380
  1.390
  1.400
  1.410
  1.410
  1.420
  1.420
  1.420
  1.430
  1.430
  1.430
  1.430
  1.440
  1.440
  1.440
  1.440
  1.440
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.349
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405
  0.405

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  27
  64
  82
  102
  125
  152
  181
  214
  250
  289
  332
  386
  434
  485
  539
  595
  654
  716
  781
  848
  918
  990
  1,066
  1,144
  1,226
  1,311
  1,399
  1,491
  1,586
  1,685
  1,788
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  70
  54
  66
  79
  95
  113
  133
  156
  180
  207
  236
  255
  288
  324
  361
  400
  441
  484
  529
  576
  625
  676
  729
  784
  841
  900
  961
  1,026
  1,092
  1,161
  1,234
Funds from operations, $m
  19
  118
  147
  181
  220
  265
  315
  370
  431
  497
  568
  641
  722
  809
  900
  995
  1,096
  1,201
  1,310
  1,424
  1,543
  1,666
  1,795
  1,928
  2,067
  2,211
  2,360
  2,516
  2,678
  2,847
  3,022
Change in working capital, $m
  -44
  63
  75
  88
  102
  116
  131
  145
  160
  174
  188
  202
  215
  228
  241
  253
  266
  278
  290
  303
  315
  328
  341
  354
  368
  383
  398
  413
  430
  447
  466
Cash from operations, $m
  63
  56
  72
  93
  118
  149
  184
  225
  271
  323
  380
  439
  507
  581
  659
  742
  830
  922
  1,020
  1,121
  1,228
  1,338
  1,454
  1,574
  1,698
  1,828
  1,963
  2,103
  2,248
  2,399
  2,556
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -32
  -41
  -53
  -66
  -82
  -100
  -120
  -143
  -168
  -195
  -224
  -255
  -288
  -324
  -361
  -400
  -441
  -484
  -529
  -576
  -625
  -676
  -729
  -784
  -841
  -900
  -961
  -1,026
  -1,092
  -1,161
New CAPEX, $m
  -58
  -97
  -116
  -136
  -158
  -180
  -202
  -225
  -247
  -269
  -291
  -312
  -333
  -353
  -373
  -393
  -412
  -431
  -450
  -469
  -488
  -508
  -528
  -549
  -570
  -593
  -616
  -640
  -666
  -693
  -721
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -59
  -129
  -157
  -189
  -224
  -262
  -302
  -345
  -390
  -437
  -486
  -536
  -588
  -641
  -697
  -754
  -812
  -872
  -934
  -998
  -1,064
  -1,133
  -1,204
  -1,278
  -1,354
  -1,434
  -1,516
  -1,601
  -1,692
  -1,785
  -1,882
Free cash flow, $m
  4
  -73
  -85
  -96
  -106
  -113
  -118
  -120
  -119
  -114
  -105
  -97
  -81
  -61
  -38
  -12
  18
  50
  85
  123
  163
  205
  250
  296
  345
  395
  447
  501
  557
  614
  674
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -14
  189
  226
  266
  308
  351
  395
  439
  483
  526
  568
  610
  650
  690
  729
  766
  804
  841
  878
  915
  953
  991
  1,031
  1,071
  1,113
  1,157
  1,202
  1,250
  1,300
  1,353
  1,408
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -4
  65
  72
  79
  84
  87
  87
  84
  78
  68
  55
  29
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -17
  254
  298
  345
  392
  438
  482
  523
  561
  594
  623
  639
  658
  690
  729
  766
  804
  841
  878
  915
  953
  991
  1,031
  1,071
  1,113
  1,157
  1,202
  1,250
  1,300
  1,353
  1,408
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -14
  181
  214
  249
  287
  325
  364
  403
  442
  480
  518
  542
  578
  629
  691
  755
  822
  891
  963
  1,038
  1,116
  1,197
  1,281
  1,368
  1,458
  1,552
  1,649
  1,751
  1,857
  1,967
  2,082
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -14
  -129
  -154
  -181
  -210
  -239
  -269
  -299
  -328
  -358
  -387
  -415
  -443
  -470
  -496
  -522
  -547
  -573
  -598
  -623
  -649
  -675
  -702
  -729
  -758
  -788
  -819
  -851
  -885
  -921
  -958
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  78
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  130
  60
  68
  77
  86
  95
  104
  113
  122
  131
  127
  135
  159
  195
  233
  275
  319
  366
  415
  467
  522
  579
  638
  700
  764
  831
  900
  972
  1,046
  1,123
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  124
  55
  59
  63
  67
  69
  70
  71
  70
  69
  60
  58
  61
  65
  68
  70
  69
  67
  64
  59
  54
  48
  42
  36
  30
  24
  19
  15
  11
  8
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  94.5
  90.1
  86.4
  83.4
  81.0
  79.1
  77.5
  76.4
  75.5
  74.9
  74.6
  74.6
  74.6
  74.6
  74.6
  74.6
  74.6
  74.6
  74.6
  74.6
  74.6
  74.6
  74.6
  74.6
  74.6
  74.6
  74.6
  74.6
  74.6
  74.6

Primoris Services Corporation, a specialty contractor and infrastructure company, provides a range of construction, fabrication, maintenance, replacement, water and wastewater, and engineering services in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: West Construction Services, East Construction Services, and Energy. The company installs, replaces, repairs, and rehabilitates natural gas, refined product, and water and wastewater pipeline systems; diameter gas and liquid pipeline facilities; and heavy civil projects, earthwork, and site development, as well as constructs mechanical facilities and other structures, including power plants, petrochemical facilities, refineries, water and wastewater treatment facilities, and parking structures. It also engages in designing and installing liquid natural gas facilities, high-performance furnaces, and heaters for clients in the oil refining, petrochemical, and power generation industries, as well as offers process and product engineering services. The company serves public utilities, petrochemical companies, energy companies, municipalities, state departments of transportation, and other customers. Primoris Services Corporation is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Primoris Services (PRIM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 50.3
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 2.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 21.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 271.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -13.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -7.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 41%
Total Debt to Equity 52.7%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Return On Total Capital 3.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.1%
Return On Equity 5.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.4%
Asset Turnover 1.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 10.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.9%
EBITDA Margin 6.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Operating Margin 2.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 2.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Net Profit Margin 1.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.1%
Effective Tax Rate 42.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.8%
Payout Ratio 40.7%

PRIM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PRIM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1997 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Primoris Services. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Primoris Services. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PRIM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 30.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for PRIM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Primoris Services, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Primoris Services.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PRIM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 96.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PRIM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Primoris Services.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Primoris Services. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PRIM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PRIM are equal to 15.8%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Primoris Services operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PRIM is equal to 10.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $497 million for Primoris Services - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 50.407 million for Primoris Services is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Primoris Services at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Primoris Services tops Street 2Q forecasts   [Aug-08-17 04:46PM  Associated Press]
▶ Primoris Services meets 1Q profit forecasts   [May-08-17 05:58PM  Associated Press]
▶ Primoris Services misses 4Q profit forecasts   [06:45AM  Associated Press]
▶ Is Primoris Services Corp (PRIM) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-12-16 07:24AM  at Insider Monkey]
Stock chart of PRIM Financial statements of PRIM
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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