Intrinsic value of Proto Labs - PRLB

Previous Close

$109.35

  Intrinsic Value

$31.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-72%

Previous close

$109.35

 
Intrinsic value

$31.00

 
Up/down potential

-72%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of PRLB stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  12.88
  12.80
  12.02
  11.32
  10.69
  10.12
  9.61
  9.15
  8.73
  8.36
  8.02
  7.72
  7.45
  7.20
  6.98
  6.78
  6.61
  6.45
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.95
  5.85
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
  5.37
Revenue, $m
  298
  336
  377
  419
  464
  511
  560
  611
  665
  720
  778
  838
  900
  965
  1,033
  1,103
  1,175
  1,251
  1,330
  1,412
  1,498
  1,587
  1,680
  1,776
  1,878
  1,983
  2,093
  2,209
  2,329
  2,455
  2,587
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  250
  280
  311
  344
  379
  415
  452
  492
  532
  575
  616
  662
  710
  759
  811
  864
  920
  978
  1,038
  1,101
  1,167
  1,235
  1,306
  1,380
  1,458
  1,539
  1,624
  1,712
  1,805
  1,902
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  236
  250
  280
  311
  344
  379
  415
  452
  492
  532
  575
  616
  662
  710
  759
  811
  864
  920
  978
  1,038
  1,101
  1,167
  1,235
  1,306
  1,380
  1,458
  1,539
  1,624
  1,712
  1,805
  1,902
Operating income, $m
  62
  86
  97
  108
  120
  132
  145
  159
  173
  188
  203
  222
  238
  256
  273
  292
  311
  331
  352
  374
  396
  420
  445
  470
  497
  525
  554
  585
  617
  650
  685
EBITDA, $m
  79
  105
  117
  131
  145
  159
  175
  191
  207
  225
  243
  261
  281
  301
  322
  344
  367
  390
  415
  440
  467
  495
  524
  554
  586
  619
  653
  689
  726
  766
  807
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
Earnings before tax, $m
  64
  86
  97
  108
  119
  132
  144
  158
  172
  186
  201
  220
  236
  253
  271
  289
  308
  328
  348
  370
  392
  415
  439
  465
  491
  519
  547
  578
  609
  642
  676
Tax expense, $m
  21
  23
  26
  29
  32
  36
  39
  43
  46
  50
  54
  59
  64
  68
  73
  78
  83
  88
  94
  100
  106
  112
  119
  125
  133
  140
  148
  156
  164
  173
  183
Net income, $m
  43
  63
  71
  79
  87
  96
  105
  115
  125
  136
  147
  161
  172
  185
  198
  211
  225
  239
  254
  270
  286
  303
  321
  339
  359
  379
  400
  422
  445
  469
  494

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  108
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  414
  345
  387
  430
  476
  525
  575
  628
  682
  739
  799
  860
  924
  991
  1,060
  1,132
  1,207
  1,285
  1,366
  1,450
  1,538
  1,629
  1,724
  1,824
  1,928
  2,036
  2,149
  2,268
  2,391
  2,521
  2,656
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  306
  345
  387
  430
  476
  525
  575
  628
  682
  739
  799
  860
  924
  991
  1,060
  1,132
  1,207
  1,285
  1,366
  1,450
  1,538
  1,629
  1,724
  1,824
  1,928
  2,036
  2,149
  2,268
  2,391
  2,521
  2,656
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.975
  0.973
  0.974
  0.973
  0.975
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.975
  0.974
  0.973
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
Average production assets, $m
  135
  152
  171
  190
  210
  231
  254
  277
  301
  326
  352
  380
  408
  437
  468
  499
  532
  567
  603
  640
  678
  719
  761
  805
  851
  898
  948
  1,000
  1,055
  1,112
  1,172
Working capital, $m
  135
  31
  34
  38
  42
  46
  51
  56
  60
  66
  71
  76
  82
  88
  94
  100
  107
  114
  121
  129
  136
  144
  153
  162
  171
  180
  190
  201
  212
  223
  235
Total debt, $m
  0
  4
  9
  14
  19
  24
  30
  36
  42
  48
  55
  61
  69
  76
  84
  92
  100
  109
  118
  127
  137
  147
  157
  168
  180
  192
  205
  218
  231
  246
  261
Total liabilities, $m
  34
  38
  43
  48
  53
  58
  64
  70
  76
  82
  89
  95
  103
  110
  118
  126
  134
  143
  152
  161
  171
  181
  191
  202
  214
  226
  239
  252
  265
  280
  295
Total equity, $m
  380
  307
  344
  383
  423
  466
  511
  558
  607
  657
  710
  765
  822
  881
  942
  1,006
  1,073
  1,142
  1,214
  1,289
  1,367
  1,448
  1,533
  1,621
  1,714
  1,810
  1,911
  2,016
  2,126
  2,241
  2,361
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  414
  345
  387
  431
  476
  524
  575
  628
  683
  739
  799
  860
  925
  991
  1,060
  1,132
  1,207
  1,285
  1,366
  1,450
  1,538
  1,629
  1,724
  1,823
  1,928
  2,036
  2,150
  2,268
  2,391
  2,521
  2,656
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.010
  0.030
  0.040
  0.040
  0.050
  0.060
  0.060
  0.070
  0.070
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.090
  0.090
  0.090
  0.090
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  43
  63
  71
  79
  87
  96
  105
  115
  125
  136
  147
  161
  172
  185
  198
  211
  225
  239
  254
  270
  286
  303
  321
  339
  359
  379
  400
  422
  445
  469
  494
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  32
  34
  37
  40
  40
  42
  46
  49
  52
  55
  59
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
  89
  94
  99
  104
  110
  116
  122
Funds from operations, $m
  83
  82
  91
  101
  112
  123
  135
  147
  160
  173
  187
  200
  215
  230
  246
  263
  280
  298
  317
  337
  357
  378
  400
  423
  447
  472
  498
  526
  554
  584
  616
Change in working capital, $m
  8
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
Cash from operations, $m
  75
  78
  88
  97
  108
  119
  130
  142
  155
  168
  181
  195
  209
  224
  240
  257
  274
  291
  310
  329
  349
  370
  392
  414
  438
  463
  488
  515
  543
  573
  604
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -116
New CAPEX, $m
  -34
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -61
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -95
  -100
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -159
  -167
  -176
Free cash flow, $m
  14
  47
  53
  60
  68
  76
  84
  93
  102
  111
  121
  131
  141
  153
  164
  176
  189
  202
  215
  229
  244
  259
  275
  291
  308
  326
  345
  364
  385
  406
  428
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  8
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  21
  51
  58
  65
  73
  81
  90
  99
  108
  118
  128
  138
  149
  160
  172
  184
  197
  210
  224
  238
  253
  269
  285
  302
  320
  338
  357
  377
  398
  420
  443
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -52
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -120
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  108
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  124
  21
  26
  32
  38
  45
  52
  59
  67
  75
  83
  92
  101
  110
  120
  130
  141
  152
  164
  175
  188
  201
  214
  228
  242
  257
  272
  288
  305
  323
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  119
  19
  23
  26
  30
  33
  35
  37
  38
  39
  39
  39
  38
  37
  35
  33
  31
  28
  25
  22
  19
  17
  14
  12
  9
  7
  6
  4
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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Proto Labs, Inc. is an e-commerce driven digital manufacturer of on-demand three dimensional (3D) printed, computer numerical control (CNC) machined and injection-molded custom parts for prototyping and short-run production. The Company's geographic segments include the United States, Europe and Japan. The Company targets its products to the product developers and engineers who use 3D computer-aided design (3D CAD) software to design products across a range of end markets. Its product lines include Injection Molding, CNC Machining and 3D Printing. Its Injection Molding product line is used for prototype, on-demand and short-run production. Its CNC Machining product line uses commercially available CNC machines to cut plastic or metal blocks into one or more custom parts. Its 3D Printing product line includes stereolithography (SL), selective laser sintering (SLS) and direct metal laser sintering (DMLS) processes. The Company also provides low-volume sheet metal fabrication services.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Proto Labs (PRLB)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 67.4
Price to Sales 9.7
Price to Book 7.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 38.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 70.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 12.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -22.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 12.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 11.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 14%
Return On Total Capital 12.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.2%
Return On Equity 12.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.2%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 56%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 58.4%
EBITDA Margin 27.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.8%
Operating Margin 20.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 21.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.4%
Net Profit Margin 14.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.4%
Effective Tax Rate 32.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

PRLB stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PRLB stock intrinsic value calculation we used $298 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Proto Labs. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Proto Labs. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PRLB stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 12.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for PRLB is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Proto Labs, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Proto Labs.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PRLB stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 74.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PRLB stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Proto Labs.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Proto Labs. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PRLB stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PRLB are equal to 45.3%.

Life of production assets of 9.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Proto Labs operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PRLB is equal to 9.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $380 million for Proto Labs - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 26.699 million for Proto Labs is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Proto Labs at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Proto Labs Announces Analyst Day   [Nov-21-17 09:32AM  Business Wire]
▶ Proto Labs Manufactures Another Good Quarter; Stock Pops   [Oct-27-17 09:32AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Proto Labs, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [Oct-26-17 06:40AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Proto Labs tops Street 3Q forecasts   [06:35AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Proto Labs, Inc. : October 23, 2017   [Oct-23-17 10:59AM  Capital Cube]
▶ 3 Stocks That Look Just Like Starbucks in 1992   [Oct-12-17 06:13AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Is Stratasys Ltd. a Buy?   [Oct-04-17 07:40AM  Motley Fool]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Proto Labs, Inc. : October 2, 2017   [Oct-02-17 11:02AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Sisyphus Kinetic Art Tables Continue to Draw Demand   [Aug-29-17 10:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Proto Labs beats 2Q profit forecasts   [Jul-27-17 03:44PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Proto Labs, Inc. : July 4, 2017   [Jul-04-17 03:23PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Proto Labs, Inc. : June 22, 2017   [Jun-22-17 04:16PM  Capital Cube]
▶ 3D Systems Has Soared, But Don't Ignore This Other 3D Printing Stock   [May-19-17 12:10PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Top Ranked Growth Stocks to Buy for May 17th   [May-17-17 10:28AM  Zacks]
▶ Why Proto Labs Stock Popped 13.5% in April   [May-09-17 10:51AM  Motley Fool]
▶ The Best 3D Printing Stock to Buy in 2017   [May-01-17 11:05AM  Motley Fool]
▶ One 3D Printing Stock You Might Be Overlooking   [Apr-29-17 10:00AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Proto Labs beats 1Q profit forecasts   [06:10AM  Associated Press]
▶ Better Buy: Stratasys vs. Proto Labs   [Apr-26-17 01:46PM  Motley Fool]
▶ [$$] U.S. Manufacturing Breathes Life Into Tool Startups   [Apr-04-17 07:43AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ 5 Small-Cap Stocks to Buy in April   [07:34AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Millennials More Upbeat on Manufacturings Future   [Mar-21-17 10:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Proto Labs founder Larry Lukis announces retirement   [Mar-03-17 01:05PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Proto Labs founder Larry Lukis announces retirement   [01:05PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ The 1 3D Printing Stock I Want to Own in 2017   [Feb-11-17 11:13AM  at Motley Fool]
Financial statements of PRLB
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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