Intrinsic value of Proto Labs - PRLB

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$64.00

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$64.00

 
Intrinsic value

$30.24

 
Up/down potential

-53%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of PRLB stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  12.88
  9.60
  9.14
  8.73
  8.35
  8.02
  7.72
  7.44
  7.20
  6.98
  6.78
  6.60
  6.44
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.95
  5.85
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
Revenue, $m
  298
  327
  356
  388
  420
  454
  489
  525
  563
  602
  643
  685
  730
  775
  823
  873
  925
  979
  1,036
  1,095
  1,156
  1,220
  1,288
  1,358
  1,431
  1,508
  1,588
  1,673
  1,761
  1,853
  1,950
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  243
  265
  288
  312
  336
  362
  389
  417
  446
  476
  504
  536
  570
  605
  642
  680
  720
  762
  805
  850
  897
  947
  998
  1,052
  1,109
  1,168
  1,230
  1,295
  1,362
  1,433
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  236
  243
  265
  288
  312
  336
  362
  389
  417
  446
  476
  504
  536
  570
  605
  642
  680
  720
  762
  805
  850
  897
  947
  998
  1,052
  1,109
  1,168
  1,230
  1,295
  1,362
  1,433
Operating income, $m
  62
  84
  91
  100
  108
  117
  126
  136
  146
  156
  167
  181
  193
  205
  218
  231
  245
  259
  274
  290
  306
  323
  341
  359
  379
  399
  421
  443
  466
  491
  516
EBITDA, $m
  79
  102
  111
  121
  131
  141
  152
  164
  176
  188
  201
  214
  228
  242
  257
  272
  289
  305
  323
  341
  361
  381
  402
  424
  446
  470
  495
  522
  549
  578
  608
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
Earnings before tax, $m
  64
  84
  91
  99
  108
  117
  126
  135
  145
  155
  166
  180
  192
  204
  216
  229
  243
  257
  271
  287
  303
  320
  337
  356
  375
  395
  416
  438
  461
  485
  510
Tax expense, $m
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  32
  34
  37
  39
  42
  45
  49
  52
  55
  58
  62
  66
  69
  73
  77
  82
  86
  91
  96
  101
  107
  112
  118
  124
  131
  138
Net income, $m
  43
  61
  67
  73
  79
  85
  92
  99
  106
  113
  121
  131
  140
  149
  158
  167
  177
  187
  198
  209
  221
  233
  246
  260
  274
  288
  303
  319
  336
  354
  372

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  108
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  414
  335
  366
  398
  431
  466
  502
  539
  578
  618
  660
  704
  749
  796
  845
  896
  950
  1,005
  1,063
  1,124
  1,187
  1,253
  1,322
  1,394
  1,469
  1,548
  1,631
  1,717
  1,808
  1,902
  2,002
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  306
  335
  366
  398
  431
  466
  502
  539
  578
  618
  660
  704
  749
  796
  845
  896
  950
  1,005
  1,063
  1,124
  1,187
  1,253
  1,322
  1,394
  1,469
  1,548
  1,631
  1,717
  1,808
  1,902
  2,002
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.974
  0.976
  0.973
  0.975
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.973
  0.975
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.975
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
Average production assets, $m
  135
  148
  161
  176
  190
  205
  221
  238
  255
  273
  291
  310
  330
  351
  373
  396
  419
  444
  469
  496
  524
  553
  583
  615
  648
  683
  720
  758
  798
  839
  883
Working capital, $m
  135
  30
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  48
  51
  55
  59
  62
  66
  71
  75
  79
  84
  89
  94
  100
  105
  111
  117
  124
  130
  137
  145
  152
  160
  169
  177
Total debt, $m
  0
  3
  7
  10
  14
  18
  22
  26
  30
  35
  39
  44
  49
  54
  60
  66
  71
  78
  84
  91
  98
  105
  113
  121
  129
  138
  147
  157
  167
  177
  188
Total liabilities, $m
  34
  37
  41
  44
  48
  52
  56
  60
  64
  69
  73
  78
  83
  88
  94
  100
  105
  112
  118
  125
  132
  139
  147
  155
  163
  172
  181
  191
  201
  211
  222
Total equity, $m
  380
  298
  325
  354
  383
  414
  446
  479
  514
  550
  587
  626
  666
  708
  751
  797
  844
  894
  945
  999
  1,055
  1,114
  1,175
  1,239
  1,306
  1,376
  1,450
  1,527
  1,607
  1,691
  1,779
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  414
  335
  366
  398
  431
  466
  502
  539
  578
  619
  660
  704
  749
  796
  845
  897
  949
  1,006
  1,063
  1,124
  1,187
  1,253
  1,322
  1,394
  1,469
  1,548
  1,631
  1,718
  1,808
  1,902
  2,001
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.010
  0.020
  0.030
  0.040
  0.040
  0.050
  0.050
  0.060
  0.060
  0.070
  0.070
  0.070
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.090
  0.090
  0.090
  0.090
  0.090
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.110
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  43
  61
  67
  73
  79
  85
  92
  99
  106
  113
  121
  131
  140
  149
  158
  167
  177
  187
  198
  209
  221
  233
  246
  260
  274
  288
  303
  319
  336
  354
  372
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  32
  34
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
  79
  83
  87
  92
Funds from operations, $m
  83
  79
  86
  94
  101
  109
  118
  126
  135
  145
  154
  164
  174
  185
  197
  208
  221
  234
  247
  261
  276
  291
  307
  324
  341
  359
  378
  398
  419
  441
  464
Change in working capital, $m
  8
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
Cash from operations, $m
  75
  84
  84
  91
  99
  106
  115
  123
  132
  141
  151
  160
  170
  181
  192
  204
  216
  229
  242
  256
  270
  285
  301
  317
  334
  352
  371
  391
  411
  433
  455
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
New CAPEX, $m
  -34
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -61
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -97
  -103
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -131
Free cash flow, $m
  14
  57
  55
  60
  66
  71
  77
  84
  90
  97
  104
  110
  118
  126
  134
  142
  151
  161
  170
  180
  191
  201
  213
  225
  237
  250
  264
  278
  292
  308
  324
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  8
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  21
  60
  58
  64
  69
  75
  81
  88
  94
  101
  109
  115
  123
  131
  139
  148
  157
  167
  177
  187
  198
  209
  220
  233
  245
  259
  273
  287
  303
  319
  335
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -52
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -88
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  108
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  142
  31
  35
  40
  44
  49
  55
  60
  65
  71
  76
  83
  89
  96
  103
  110
  117
  125
  133
  141
  150
  159
  169
  178
  189
  199
  210
  222
  234
  247
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  136
  28
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  37
  38
  37
  36
  35
  34
  32
  30
  28
  26
  23
  20
  18
  16
  13
  11
  9
  7
  6
  5
  3
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Proto Labs, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an e-commerce enabled digital manufacturer of custom parts for prototyping and short-run production in the Unites States, Europe, and Japan. The company utilizes injection molding, computer numerical control machining, and three-dimensional (3D) printing to manufacture custom parts for developers and engineers who use 3D computer-aided design software to design products in the medical, aerospace, computer/electronics, consumer products, industrial machinery, and other markets. Proto Labs, Inc. was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Maple Plain, Minnesota.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Proto Labs (PRLB)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 39.4
Price to Sales 5.7
Price to Book 4.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 22.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 41.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 12.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -22.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 12.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 11.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 14%
Return On Total Capital 12.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.2%
Return On Equity 12.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.2%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 56%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 58.4%
EBITDA Margin 27.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.8%
Operating Margin 20.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 21.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.4%
Net Profit Margin 14.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.4%
Effective Tax Rate 32.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

PRLB stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PRLB stock intrinsic value calculation we used $298 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Proto Labs. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Proto Labs. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PRLB stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for PRLB is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Proto Labs, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Proto Labs.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PRLB stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 74.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PRLB stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Proto Labs.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Proto Labs. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PRLB stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PRLB are equal to 45.3%.

Life of production assets of 9.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Proto Labs operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PRLB is equal to 9.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $380 million for Proto Labs - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 26.719 million for Proto Labs is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Proto Labs at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.7 billion.


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Stock chart of PRLB Financial statements of PRLB Annual reports of PRLB
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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