Intrinsic value of Proto Labs - PRLB

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$53.05

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$53.05

 
Intrinsic value

$28.09

 
Up/down potential

-47%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of PRLB stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  12.88
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  298
  304
  311
  319
  328
  338
  349
  361
  373
  387
  402
  418
  435
  453
  472
  493
  514
  537
  561
  587
  614
  642
  672
  704
  737
  772
  809
  848
  889
  932
  978
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  226
  232
  237
  244
  251
  259
  268
  278
  288
  299
  307
  320
  333
  347
  362
  378
  395
  413
  432
  451
  472
  494
  518
  542
  568
  595
  624
  654
  685
  719
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  236
  226
  232
  237
  244
  251
  259
  268
  278
  288
  299
  307
  320
  333
  347
  362
  378
  395
  413
  432
  451
  472
  494
  518
  542
  568
  595
  624
  654
  685
  719
Operating income, $m
  62
  78
  79
  82
  84
  87
  89
  93
  96
  100
  104
  111
  115
  120
  125
  130
  136
  142
  149
  155
  163
  170
  178
  186
  195
  204
  214
  225
  235
  247
  259
EBITDA, $m
  79
  95
  97
  99
  102
  105
  109
  112
  117
  121
  125
  130
  136
  141
  147
  154
  160
  168
  175
  183
  191
  200
  210
  220
  230
  241
  252
  265
  277
  291
  305
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
Earnings before tax, $m
  64
  78
  79
  81
  84
  86
  89
  92
  96
  99
  103
  110
  115
  119
  124
  130
  135
  141
  148
  154
  161
  169
  177
  185
  194
  203
  212
  223
  233
  244
  256
Tax expense, $m
  21
  21
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
Net income, $m
  43
  57
  58
  59
  61
  63
  65
  67
  70
  73
  75
  81
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
  123
  129
  135
  141
  148
  155
  162
  170
  178
  187

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  108
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  414
  312
  319
  327
  337
  347
  358
  370
  383
  398
  413
  429
  447
  465
  485
  506
  528
  552
  576
  603
  630
  659
  690
  723
  757
  793
  831
  871
  913
  957
  1,004
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  306
  312
  319
  327
  337
  347
  358
  370
  383
  398
  413
  429
  447
  465
  485
  506
  528
  552
  576
  603
  630
  659
  690
  723
  757
  793
  831
  871
  913
  957
  1,004
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.974
  0.974
  0.975
  0.976
  0.973
  0.974
  0.975
  0.976
  0.974
  0.972
  0.973
  0.974
  0.973
  0.974
  0.973
  0.974
  0.973
  0.973
  0.974
  0.973
  0.975
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
  0.974
Average production assets, $m
  135
  138
  141
  144
  149
  153
  158
  163
  169
  175
  182
  189
  197
  205
  214
  223
  233
  243
  254
  266
  278
  291
  305
  319
  334
  350
  367
  384
  403
  422
  443
Working capital, $m
  135
  28
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
Total debt, $m
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  5
  6
  7
  9
  10
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  25
  27
  30
  33
  36
  39
  43
  46
  50
  54
  58
  63
  67
  72
  77
Total liabilities, $m
  34
  35
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  97
  101
  106
  111
Total equity, $m
  380
  277
  284
  291
  299
  308
  318
  329
  341
  354
  367
  382
  397
  414
  431
  450
  469
  490
  512
  536
  560
  586
  614
  643
  673
  705
  739
  774
  812
  851
  892
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  414
  312
  319
  327
  336
  347
  358
  370
  384
  398
  413
  430
  447
  466
  485
  506
  528
  551
  576
  603
  630
  659
  691
  723
  757
  793
  831
  871
  913
  957
  1,003
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.000
  0.010
  0.010
  0.010
  0.010
  0.020
  0.020
  0.030
  0.030
  0.030
  0.040
  0.040
  0.040
  0.050
  0.050
  0.050
  0.060
  0.060
  0.060
  0.060
  0.070
  0.070
  0.070
  0.070
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.090
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889
  0.889

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  43
  57
  58
  59
  61
  63
  65
  67
  70
  73
  75
  81
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
  123
  129
  135
  141
  148
  155
  162
  170
  178
  187
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  17
  17
  18
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
Funds from operations, $m
  83
  74
  76
  77
  80
  82
  85
  87
  90
  94
  97
  100
  104
  109
  113
  118
  123
  129
  134
  140
  147
  154
  161
  168
  176
  184
  193
  202
  212
  222
  233
Change in working capital, $m
  8
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
Cash from operations, $m
  75
  80
  75
  77
  79
  81
  84
  86
  89
  92
  96
  99
  103
  107
  111
  116
  121
  126
  132
  138
  144
  151
  158
  165
  173
  181
  190
  199
  208
  219
  229
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
New CAPEX, $m
  -34
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -61
  -17
  -17
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
Free cash flow, $m
  14
  64
  57
  58
  60
  61
  63
  64
  66
  69
  71
  73
  75
  78
  81
  85
  88
  92
  96
  100
  104
  109
  114
  119
  125
  131
  137
  143
  150
  157
  165
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  8
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  21
  64
  58
  59
  61
  62
  64
  66
  68
  70
  73
  74
  77
  80
  83
  87
  91
  94
  99
  103
  107
  112
  117
  123
  129
  135
  141
  148
  155
  162
  170
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -52
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  108
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  167
  52
  52
  52
  53
  54
  55
  56
  57
  59
  60
  62
  64
  66
  68
  71
  74
  76
  80
  83
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  107
  112
  117
  123
  128
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  160
  47
  45
  43
  41
  39
  37
  35
  33
  31
  28
  26
  24
  22
  20
  18
  16
  14
  12
  11
  9
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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Proto Labs, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an e-commerce enabled digital manufacturer of custom parts for prototyping and short-run production in the Unites States, Europe, and Japan. The company utilizes injection molding, computer numerical control machining, and three-dimensional (3D) printing to manufacture custom parts for developers and engineers who use 3D computer-aided design software to design products in the medical, aerospace, computer/electronics, consumer products, industrial machinery, and other markets. Proto Labs, Inc. was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Maple Plain, Minnesota.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Proto Labs (PRLB)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 32.7
Price to Sales 4.7
Price to Book 3.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 18.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 34.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 12.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -22.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 12.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 11.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 14%
Return On Total Capital 12.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.2%
Return On Equity 12.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.2%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 56%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 58.4%
EBITDA Margin 27.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.8%
Operating Margin 20.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 21.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.4%
Net Profit Margin 14.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.4%
Effective Tax Rate 32.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

PRLB stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PRLB stock intrinsic value calculation we used $298 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Proto Labs. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Proto Labs. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PRLB stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for PRLB is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Proto Labs, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Proto Labs.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PRLB stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 74.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PRLB stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Proto Labs.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Proto Labs. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PRLB stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PRLB are equal to 45.3%.

Life of production assets of 9.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Proto Labs operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PRLB is equal to 9.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $380 million for Proto Labs - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 26.614 million for Proto Labs is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Proto Labs at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.4 billion.


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▶ Proto Labs' Stock Falls on Earnings Concerns   [Jul-28-16 12:35PM  at Motley Fool]
Stock chart of PRLB Financial statements of PRLB
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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