Intrinsic value of ProPhase Labs - PRPH

Previous Close

$2.25

  Intrinsic Value

$0.09

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-96%

  Value-price divergence*

-32%

Previous close

$2.25

 
Intrinsic value

$0.09

 
Up/down potential

-96%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-32%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of PRPH stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  0.00
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  21
  34
  52
  78
  113
  159
  218
  293
  385
  496
  626
  777
  950
  1,145
  1,363
  1,602
  1,864
  2,147
  2,451
  2,776
  3,121
  3,486
  3,870
  4,273
  4,695
  5,136
  5,595
  6,074
  6,572
  7,090
  7,628
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  38
  59
  89
  129
  182
  250
  335
  440
  566
  715
  888
  1,086
  1,309
  1,558
  1,831
  2,130
  2,454
  2,802
  3,173
  3,568
  3,984
  4,423
  4,884
  5,367
  5,870
  6,396
  6,943
  7,512
  8,104
  8,719
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  24
  38
  59
  89
  129
  182
  250
  335
  440
  566
  715
  888
  1,086
  1,309
  1,558
  1,831
  2,130
  2,454
  2,802
  3,173
  3,568
  3,984
  4,423
  4,884
  5,367
  5,870
  6,396
  6,943
  7,512
  8,104
  8,719
Operating income, $m
  -3
  -5
  -7
  -11
  -16
  -23
  -31
  -42
  -55
  -71
  -89
  -111
  -136
  -164
  -195
  -229
  -267
  -307
  -351
  -397
  -446
  -498
  -553
  -611
  -671
  -734
  -800
  -869
  -940
  -1,014
  -1,091
EBITDA, $m
  -3
  -5
  -7
  -11
  -15
  -22
  -30
  -40
  -52
  -67
  -85
  -106
  -129
  -156
  -185
  -218
  -253
  -292
  -333
  -377
  -424
  -474
  -526
  -581
  -638
  -698
  -760
  -825
  -893
  -963
  -1,037
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  6
  7
  9
  11
  13
  16
  18
  22
  25
  28
  32
  36
  40
  45
  50
  55
  60
  65
  71
  76
  82
Earnings before tax, $m
  -3
  -5
  -8
  -11
  -17
  -24
  -33
  -44
  -58
  -75
  -95
  -118
  -145
  -175
  -208
  -245
  -285
  -329
  -375
  -425
  -478
  -535
  -594
  -656
  -721
  -789
  -860
  -934
  -1,010
  -1,090
  -1,173
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -3
  -5
  -8
  -11
  -17
  -24
  -33
  -44
  -58
  -75
  -95
  -118
  -145
  -175
  -208
  -245
  -285
  -329
  -375
  -425
  -478
  -535
  -594
  -656
  -721
  -789
  -860
  -934
  -1,010
  -1,090
  -1,173

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  13
  21
  32
  48
  70
  98
  135
  182
  238
  307
  388
  481
  588
  709
  844
  992
  1,154
  1,329
  1,518
  1,719
  1,933
  2,158
  2,396
  2,646
  2,907
  3,180
  3,465
  3,761
  4,069
  4,390
  4,723
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  13
  21
  32
  48
  70
  98
  135
  182
  238
  307
  388
  481
  588
  709
  844
  992
  1,154
  1,329
  1,518
  1,719
  1,933
  2,158
  2,396
  2,646
  2,907
  3,180
  3,465
  3,761
  4,069
  4,390
  4,723
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.615
  1.619
  1.625
  1.625
  1.614
  1.622
  1.615
  1.610
  1.618
  1.616
  1.613
  1.615
  1.616
  1.615
  1.615
  1.615
  1.615
  1.616
  1.615
  1.615
  1.615
  1.615
  1.615
  1.615
  1.615
  1.615
  1.615
  1.615
  1.615
  1.615
  1.615
Average production assets, $m
  2
  2
  4
  6
  8
  11
  16
  21
  27
  35
  44
  55
  67
  81
  97
  114
  132
  152
  174
  197
  222
  248
  275
  303
  333
  365
  397
  431
  467
  503
  542
Working capital, $m
  3
  6
  10
  15
  21
  30
  42
  56
  73
  94
  119
  148
  181
  218
  259
  304
  354
  408
  466
  527
  593
  662
  735
  812
  892
  976
  1,063
  1,154
  1,249
  1,347
  1,449
Total debt, $m
  1
  5
  11
  20
  32
  47
  67
  92
  122
  159
  202
  253
  311
  376
  448
  528
  615
  709
  811
  919
  1,034
  1,155
  1,283
  1,418
  1,558
  1,705
  1,858
  2,017
  2,183
  2,356
  2,535
Total liabilities, $m
  7
  11
  17
  26
  38
  53
  73
  98
  128
  165
  208
  259
  317
  382
  454
  534
  621
  715
  817
  925
  1,040
  1,161
  1,289
  1,424
  1,564
  1,711
  1,864
  2,023
  2,189
  2,362
  2,541
Total equity, $m
  6
  10
  15
  22
  32
  45
  63
  84
  110
  142
  179
  222
  272
  328
  390
  458
  533
  614
  701
  794
  893
  997
  1,107
  1,222
  1,343
  1,469
  1,601
  1,738
  1,880
  2,028
  2,182
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  13
  21
  32
  48
  70
  98
  136
  182
  238
  307
  387
  481
  589
  710
  844
  992
  1,154
  1,329
  1,518
  1,719
  1,933
  2,158
  2,396
  2,646
  2,907
  3,180
  3,465
  3,761
  4,069
  4,390
  4,723
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.167
  0.540
  0.760
  0.890
  0.980
  1.030
  1.070
  1.090
  1.110
  1.120
  1.130
  1.140
  1.140
  1.150
  1.150
  1.150
  1.150
  1.150
  1.160
  1.160
  1.160
  1.160
  1.160
  1.160
  1.160
  1.160
  1.160
  1.160
  1.160
  1.160
  1.160
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462
  0.462

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -3
  -5
  -8
  -11
  -17
  -24
  -33
  -44
  -58
  -75
  -95
  -118
  -145
  -175
  -208
  -245
  -285
  -329
  -375
  -425
  -478
  -535
  -594
  -656
  -721
  -789
  -860
  -934
  -1,010
  -1,090
  -1,173
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  4
  6
  7
  8
  10
  11
  13
  15
  17
  20
  22
  25
  27
  30
  33
  36
  40
  43
  47
  50
  54
Funds from operations, $m
  2
  -5
  -7
  -11
  -16
  -23
  -31
  -42
  -56
  -72
  -91
  -113
  -138
  -167
  -198
  -233
  -272
  -313
  -358
  -406
  -456
  -510
  -566
  -626
  -688
  -752
  -820
  -890
  -964
  -1,040
  -1,119
Change in working capital, $m
  2
  2
  3
  5
  7
  9
  11
  14
  17
  21
  25
  29
  33
  37
  41
  46
  50
  54
  58
  62
  66
  69
  73
  77
  80
  84
  87
  91
  95
  98
  102
Cash from operations, $m
  0
  -7
  -11
  -16
  -23
  -31
  -43
  -56
  -73
  -93
  -115
  -141
  -171
  -204
  -240
  -279
  -321
  -367
  -416
  -467
  -522
  -579
  -639
  -702
  -768
  -836
  -907
  -981
  -1,058
  -1,138
  -1,221
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -36
  -40
  -43
  -47
  -50
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -18
  -21
  -23
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -37
  -40
  -44
  -48
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -69
  -74
  -78
  -84
  -88
Free cash flow, $m
  -1
  -8
  -12
  -18
  -26
  -36
  -48
  -63
  -82
  -103
  -128
  -157
  -189
  -224
  -263
  -306
  -351
  -400
  -453
  -508
  -566
  -627
  -691
  -758
  -828
  -901
  -977
  -1,055
  -1,137
  -1,222
  -1,310
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  4
  6
  9
  12
  15
  20
  25
  31
  37
  43
  50
  58
  65
  72
  80
  87
  94
  101
  108
  115
  122
  128
  134
  141
  147
  153
  159
  166
  172
  179
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  8
  13
  19
  27
  37
  50
  66
  85
  107
  132
  162
  194
  230
  270
  313
  360
  410
  462
  518
  577
  639
  704
  771
  842
  915
  991
  1,071
  1,153
  1,238
  1,327
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  12
  19
  28
  39
  52
  70
  91
  116
  144
  175
  212
  252
  295
  342
  393
  447
  504
  563
  626
  692
  761
  832
  905
  983
  1,062
  1,144
  1,230
  1,319
  1,410
  1,506
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -1
  5
  7
  9
  13
  17
  22
  27
  34
  40
  48
  55
  63
  71
  79
  88
  96
  103
  111
  119
  126
  133
  140
  147
  154
  161
  168
  175
  182
  189
  197
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  3
  -8
  -13
  -19
  -27
  -37
  -50
  -66
  -85
  -107
  -132
  -162
  -194
  -230
  -270
  -313
  -360
  -410
  -462
  -518
  -577
  -639
  -704
  -771
  -842
  -915
  -991
  -1,071
  -1,153
  -1,238
  -1,327
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -4
  -6
  -9
  -14
  -20
  -28
  -38
  -51
  -66
  -85
  -106
  -131
  -159
  -191
  -226
  -264
  -306
  -351
  -400
  -451
  -506
  -563
  -624
  -688
  -754
  -823
  -896
  -971
  -1,049
  -1,131
Discount rate, %
 
  6.80
  7.14
  7.50
  7.87
  8.27
  8.68
  9.11
  9.57
  10.05
  10.55
  11.08
  11.63
  12.21
  12.82
  13.46
  14.14
  14.84
  15.59
  16.37
  17.18
  18.04
  18.94
  19.89
  20.89
  21.93
  23.03
  24.18
  25.39
  26.66
  27.99
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -4
  -5
  -8
  -10
  -14
  -17
  -21
  -25
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -35
  -34
  -32
  -29
  -26
  -22
  -19
  -16
  -12
  -10
  -7
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  81.2
  66.6
  55.1
  46.0
  38.7
  32.8
  28.0
  24.0
  20.7
  17.9
  15.6
  13.7
  12.0
  10.6
  9.3
  8.3
  7.3
  6.5
  5.8
  5.2
  4.7
  4.2
  3.7
  3.4
  3.0
  2.7
  2.5
  2.2
  2.0
  1.8

ProPhase Labs, Inc. manufactures, markets and distributes a range of homeopathic and healthcare products. The Company is engaged in the research and development of over-the-counter (OTC) drugs and natural base health products, including supplements, personal care and cosmeceutical products. The Company's products include TK Supplements and ORXx Complete. TK Supplements consists of LEGENDZ XL, a male sexual enhancement; TRIPLE EDGE XL, a daily energy and stamina booster, and SUPER PROSTAFLOW plus, a supplement to support prostate and urinary health. The Company's OTC offerings include the ORXx cough/cold drops. Its consumer health customers include national wholesalers and distributors, as well as independent and chain food, drug and mass merchandise stores and pharmacies.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  ProPhase Labs (PRPH)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -12.8
Price to Sales 1.8
Price to Book 6.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow -38.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 16.7%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -21.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -31.9%
Return On Total Capital -37.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -48.1%
Return On Equity -40%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -48.9%
Asset Turnover 1.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 47.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 56.1%
EBITDA Margin -14.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -23.2%
Operating Margin -14.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -21.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -14.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -23.2%
Net Profit Margin -14.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -23.2%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

PRPH stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PRPH stock intrinsic value calculation we used $21 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by ProPhase Labs. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of ProPhase Labs. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PRPH stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.8%, whose default value for PRPH is calculated based on our internal credit rating of ProPhase Labs, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of ProPhase Labs.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PRPH stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 114.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PRPH stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for ProPhase Labs.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for ProPhase Labs. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PRPH stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PRPH are equal to 7.1%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in ProPhase Labs operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PRPH is equal to 19%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $6 million for ProPhase Labs - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 16.239 million for ProPhase Labs is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of ProPhase Labs at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ProPhase Provides Shareholder Update   [Apr-05-17 04:10PM  Marketwired]
▶ $50M deal done: Cold-Eeze has a new owner   [Mar-30-17 10:50AM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ $50M deal done: Cold-Eeze has a new owner   [10:50AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ $50M deal: Bucks County firm selling Cold-Eeze brand   [09:12AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ 10-Q for ProPhase Labs, Inc.   [Aug-14  08:10PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ ProPhase Establishes 3.2 Million Share Equity Line   [Aug-05  12:55PM  Marketwired]
▶ Seasonal Businesses Sweat Year-Round To Shine On Time   [May-28  01:32PM  at Investor's Business Daily]
▶ 10-Q for ProPhase Labs, Inc.   [May-15  08:09PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ 10-K for ProPhase Labs, Inc.   [Apr-29  08:15PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ 10-Q for ProPhase Labs, Inc.   [Nov-15  07:07PM  Company Spotlight]
Financial statements of PRPH
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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