Intrinsic value of Phillips 66 Partners - PSXP

Previous Close

$50.96

  Intrinsic Value

$12.50

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-75%

Previous close

$50.96

 
Intrinsic value

$12.50

 
Up/down potential

-75%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of PSXP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 5.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  22.82
  4.20
  4.28
  4.35
  4.42
  4.48
  4.53
  4.57
  4.62
  4.66
  4.69
  4.72
  4.75
  4.77
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.85
  4.87
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.94
  4.94
  4.95
  4.95
  4.96
  4.96
Revenue, $m
  759
  791
  825
  861
  899
  939
  981
  1,026
  1,074
  1,124
  1,176
  1,232
  1,290
  1,352
  1,417
  1,485
  1,557
  1,632
  1,712
  1,795
  1,883
  1,976
  2,073
  2,175
  2,282
  2,394
  2,513
  2,637
  2,768
  2,905
  3,049
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  313
  326
  339
  353
  368
  384
  401
  419
  437
  457
  459
  481
  504
  528
  553
  580
  608
  638
  669
  702
  736
  772
  810
  850
  892
  936
  983
  1,031
  1,082
  1,136
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  116
  119
  122
  125
  128
  131
  134
  138
  141
  145
  148
  152
  156
  160
  164
  168
  172
  176
  181
  185
  190
  195
  199
  204
  209
  215
  220
  226
  231
  237
Total operating expenses, $m
  411
  429
  445
  461
  478
  496
  515
  535
  557
  578
  602
  607
  633
  660
  688
  717
  748
  780
  814
  850
  887
  926
  967
  1,009
  1,054
  1,101
  1,151
  1,203
  1,257
  1,313
  1,373
Operating income, $m
  348
  362
  380
  400
  421
  443
  466
  491
  517
  545
  575
  625
  658
  692
  729
  768
  809
  852
  898
  946
  996
  1,050
  1,106
  1,165
  1,227
  1,293
  1,362
  1,434
  1,511
  1,591
  1,676
EBITDA, $m
  444
  474
  496
  520
  545
  572
  601
  631
  663
  697
  732
  770
  810
  852
  897
  944
  993
  1,045
  1,100
  1,158
  1,219
  1,283
  1,351
  1,422
  1,497
  1,576
  1,659
  1,746
  1,838
  1,935
  2,036
Interest expense (income), $m
  40
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  105
  110
  116
  121
  127
  133
  140
  146
  154
  161
  169
  178
  187
  196
  206
  216
  227
  238
  250
  263
  276
  290
  304
  319
  336
Earnings before tax, $m
  410
  278
  292
  308
  324
  342
  361
  381
  402
  424
  448
  491
  518
  546
  575
  607
  640
  674
  711
  750
  791
  834
  879
  927
  977
  1,030
  1,086
  1,145
  1,207
  1,272
  1,340
Tax expense, $m
  2
  75
  79
  83
  88
  92
  97
  103
  108
  115
  121
  133
  140
  147
  155
  164
  173
  182
  192
  202
  213
  225
  237
  250
  264
  278
  293
  309
  326
  343
  362
Net income, $m
  408
  203
  213
  225
  237
  250
  263
  278
  293
  310
  327
  359
  378
  399
  420
  443
  467
  492
  519
  547
  577
  609
  642
  677
  713
  752
  793
  836
  881
  928
  978

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,109
  4,275
  4,458
  4,652
  4,857
  5,075
  5,305
  5,547
  5,803
  6,074
  6,358
  6,659
  6,975
  7,308
  7,658
  8,027
  8,415
  8,824
  9,253
  9,705
  10,179
  10,679
  11,203
  11,754
  12,334
  12,943
  13,582
  14,254
  14,961
  15,702
  16,481
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,107
  4,275
  4,458
  4,652
  4,857
  5,075
  5,305
  5,547
  5,803
  6,074
  6,358
  6,659
  6,975
  7,308
  7,658
  8,027
  8,415
  8,824
  9,253
  9,705
  10,179
  10,679
  11,203
  11,754
  12,334
  12,943
  13,582
  14,254
  14,961
  15,702
  16,481
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
Average production assets, $m
  2,556
  2,664
  2,778
  2,899
  3,027
  3,162
  3,305
  3,456
  3,616
  3,784
  3,962
  4,149
  4,346
  4,553
  4,772
  5,002
  5,243
  5,498
  5,765
  6,047
  6,343
  6,654
  6,980
  7,324
  7,685
  8,064
  8,463
  8,882
  9,322
  9,784
  10,269
Working capital, $m
  -11
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
Total debt, $m
  2,411
  2,514
  2,627
  2,748
  2,875
  3,009
  3,152
  3,302
  3,460
  3,628
  3,804
  3,990
  4,185
  4,392
  4,609
  4,837
  5,077
  5,330
  5,596
  5,875
  6,169
  6,478
  6,803
  7,144
  7,503
  7,879
  8,275
  8,691
  9,129
  9,588
  10,070
Total liabilities, $m
  2,543
  2,646
  2,759
  2,880
  3,007
  3,141
  3,284
  3,434
  3,592
  3,760
  3,936
  4,122
  4,317
  4,524
  4,741
  4,969
  5,209
  5,462
  5,728
  6,007
  6,301
  6,610
  6,935
  7,276
  7,635
  8,011
  8,407
  8,823
  9,261
  9,720
  10,202
Total equity, $m
  1,566
  1,629
  1,698
  1,772
  1,851
  1,934
  2,021
  2,114
  2,211
  2,314
  2,423
  2,537
  2,657
  2,784
  2,918
  3,058
  3,206
  3,362
  3,525
  3,697
  3,878
  4,069
  4,268
  4,478
  4,699
  4,931
  5,175
  5,431
  5,700
  5,983
  6,279
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,109
  4,275
  4,457
  4,652
  4,858
  5,075
  5,305
  5,548
  5,803
  6,074
  6,359
  6,659
  6,974
  7,308
  7,659
  8,027
  8,415
  8,824
  9,253
  9,704
  10,179
  10,679
  11,203
  11,754
  12,334
  12,942
  13,582
  14,254
  14,961
  15,703
  16,481
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.540
  1.540
  1.550
  1.550
  1.550
  1.560
  1.560
  1.560
  1.560
  1.570
  1.570
  1.570
  1.570
  1.580
  1.580
  1.580
  1.580
  1.590
  1.590
  1.590
  1.590
  1.590
  1.590
  1.600
  1.600
  1.600
  1.600
  1.600
  1.600
  1.600
  1.600
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  408
  203
  213
  225
  237
  250
  263
  278
  293
  310
  327
  359
  378
  399
  420
  443
  467
  492
  519
  547
  577
  609
  642
  677
  713
  752
  793
  836
  881
  928
  978
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  96
  112
  116
  120
  125
  129
  134
  140
  145
  151
  158
  146
  152
  160
  167
  175
  184
  193
  202
  212
  223
  233
  245
  257
  270
  283
  297
  312
  327
  343
  360
Funds from operations, $m
  475
  315
  329
  345
  361
  379
  398
  418
  439
  461
  484
  504
  531
  558
  588
  618
  651
  685
  721
  760
  800
  842
  887
  934
  983
  1,035
  1,090
  1,147
  1,208
  1,272
  1,339
Change in working capital, $m
  -17
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  492
  314
  329
  345
  361
  379
  398
  418
  439
  461
  484
  504
  530
  558
  587
  618
  651
  685
  721
  759
  799
  842
  886
  933
  983
  1,035
  1,089
  1,147
  1,207
  1,271
  1,338
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -90
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -139
  -146
  -152
  -160
  -167
  -175
  -184
  -193
  -202
  -212
  -223
  -233
  -245
  -257
  -270
  -283
  -297
  -312
  -327
  -343
New CAPEX, $m
  -584
  -108
  -114
  -121
  -128
  -135
  -143
  -151
  -160
  -168
  -177
  -187
  -197
  -207
  -218
  -230
  -242
  -254
  -268
  -281
  -296
  -311
  -327
  -344
  -361
  -379
  -399
  -419
  -440
  -462
  -486
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1,558
  -198
  -207
  -218
  -230
  -241
  -254
  -267
  -281
  -295
  -310
  -326
  -343
  -359
  -378
  -397
  -417
  -438
  -461
  -483
  -508
  -534
  -560
  -589
  -618
  -649
  -682
  -716
  -752
  -789
  -829
Free cash flow, $m
  -1,066
  117
  122
  126
  132
  137
  144
  150
  158
  166
  174
  178
  188
  198
  209
  221
  233
  247
  261
  276
  292
  308
  326
  345
  365
  386
  408
  431
  456
  482
  510
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  1,022
  105
  113
  120
  127
  135
  142
  150
  159
  167
  176
  186
  196
  206
  217
  228
  240
  253
  266
  280
  294
  309
  325
  341
  359
  377
  396
  416
  437
  459
  482
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  983
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  1,396
  105
  113
  120
  127
  135
  142
  150
  159
  167
  176
  186
  196
  206
  217
  228
  240
  253
  266
  280
  294
  309
  325
  341
  359
  377
  396
  416
  437
  459
  482
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  330
  222
  235
  247
  259
  272
  286
  301
  316
  333
  350
  364
  384
  404
  426
  449
  474
  499
  527
  555
  585
  617
  651
  686
  723
  762
  804
  847
  893
  941
  992
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -122
  -63
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -88
  -92
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -127
  -134
  -141
  -148
  -156
  -164
  -172
  -181
  -190
  -200
  -210
  -221
  -232
  -244
  -256
  -269
  -283
  -297
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  160
  165
  173
  181
  189
  198
  208
  219
  230
  242
  250
  263
  277
  293
  309
  326
  344
  363
  383
  404
  427
  451
  476
  503
  530
  560
  591
  624
  659
  695
Discount rate, %
 
  8.80
  9.24
  9.70
  10.19
  10.70
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.21
  20.17
  21.18
  22.24
  23.35
  24.52
  25.74
  27.03
  28.38
  29.80
  31.29
  32.85
  34.50
  36.22
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  147
  138
  131
  122
  114
  105
  95
  86
  77
  67
  57
  49
  41
  34
  28
  22
  17
  13
  10
  7
  5
  4
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Phillips 66 Partners LP (Phillips 66) owns, operates, develops and acquires fee-based crude oil, refined petroleum product and natural gas liquids (NGL) pipelines, terminals and other transportation and midstream assets. The Company's assets consist of systems, such as Clifton Ridge Crude System, Eagle Ford Gathering System, Ponca Crude System, Billings Crude System, Borger Crude System, Sweeny to Pasadena Products System, Hartford Connector Products System, Gold Line Products System, Cross-Channel Connector Products System, Ponca Products System, Billings Products System, Bayway Products System, Standish Pipeline, Borger Products System, River Parish NGL System, Medford Spheres, Bayway Rail Rack, Ferndale Rail Rack, Sand Hills/Southern Hills Joint Ventures, Explorer Pipeline Joint Venture, Bakken Joint Ventures, Bayou Bridge Pipeline Joint Venture, STACK Pipeline Joint Venture, and Sweeny Fractionator and Clemens Caverns.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Phillips 66 Partners (PSXP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 13.7
Price to Sales 7.3
Price to Book 3.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.3
Price to Free Cash Flow -60.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 22.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -38.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 46%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 153%
Total Debt to Equity 154%
Interest Coverage 11
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 11.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.6%
Return On Total Capital 10.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.8%
Return On Equity 27.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 42.5%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 71.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 62.5%
Operating Margin 45.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 44.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 54%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 49.3%
Net Profit Margin 53.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 49.1%
Effective Tax Rate 0.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.3%
Payout Ratio 92.6%

PSXP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PSXP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $759 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Phillips 66 Partners. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Phillips 66 Partners. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PSXP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 4.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.8%, whose default value for PSXP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Phillips 66 Partners, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Phillips 66 Partners.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PSXP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 39.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $113 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PSXP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Phillips 66 Partners.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Phillips 66 Partners. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PSXP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PSXP are equal to 336.8%.

Life of production assets of 28.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Phillips 66 Partners operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PSXP is equal to 0.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1566 million for Phillips 66 Partners - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 110.086 million for Phillips 66 Partners is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Phillips 66 Partners at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ Phillips 66 Sees Relative Strength Rating Rise To 72   [Oct-04-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
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▶ Behind Phillips 66s Segmental Earnings Trends   [Sep-18-17 10:37AM  Market Realist]
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▶ Why Has Short Interest in Phillips 66 Fallen?   [09:08AM  Market Realist]
▶ Institutional Ownership in Phillips 66: Whos Buying PSX   [Sep-14-17 10:38AM  Market Realist]
▶ Where Phillips 66s Analysts Are Leaning Now   [08:07AM  Market Realist]
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Financial statements of PSXP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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