Intrinsic value of Phillips 66 Partners - PSXP

Previous Close

$46.22

  Intrinsic Value

$14.56

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-69%

  Value-price divergence*

-75%

Previous close

$46.22

 
Intrinsic value

$14.56

 
Up/down potential

-69%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-75%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of PSXP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  22.82
  12.30
  11.57
  10.91
  10.32
  9.79
  9.31
  8.88
  8.49
  8.14
  7.83
  7.55
  7.29
  7.06
  6.86
  6.67
  6.50
  6.35
  6.22
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
Revenue, $m
  759
  852
  951
  1,055
  1,164
  1,278
  1,396
  1,520
  1,650
  1,784
  1,924
  2,069
  2,220
  2,376
  2,539
  2,709
  2,885
  3,068
  3,259
  3,457
  3,664
  3,880
  4,105
  4,340
  4,585
  4,841
  5,108
  5,388
  5,680
  5,986
  6,305
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  336
  373
  412
  452
  495
  539
  585
  633
  683
  735
  771
  827
  885
  946
  1,009
  1,075
  1,143
  1,214
  1,288
  1,365
  1,446
  1,530
  1,617
  1,708
  1,804
  1,903
  2,008
  2,116
  2,230
  2,350
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  116
  119
  122
  125
  128
  131
  134
  138
  141
  145
  148
  152
  156
  160
  164
  168
  172
  176
  181
  185
  190
  195
  199
  204
  209
  215
  220
  226
  231
  237
Total operating expenses, $m
  411
  452
  492
  534
  577
  623
  670
  719
  771
  824
  880
  919
  979
  1,041
  1,106
  1,173
  1,243
  1,315
  1,390
  1,469
  1,550
  1,636
  1,725
  1,816
  1,912
  2,013
  2,118
  2,228
  2,342
  2,461
  2,587
Operating income, $m
  348
  400
  459
  522
  587
  655
  727
  801
  879
  960
  1,044
  1,150
  1,241
  1,335
  1,433
  1,536
  1,642
  1,753
  1,868
  1,988
  2,114
  2,244
  2,381
  2,523
  2,672
  2,827
  2,990
  3,160
  3,338
  3,524
  3,719
EBITDA, $m
  444
  520
  590
  665
  743
  825
  910
  999
  1,092
  1,189
  1,289
  1,394
  1,503
  1,616
  1,733
  1,856
  1,983
  2,115
  2,253
  2,397
  2,547
  2,703
  2,866
  3,036
  3,214
  3,400
  3,594
  3,797
  4,009
  4,231
  4,464
Interest expense (income), $m
  40
  84
  95
  107
  119
  132
  145
  159
  173
  189
  204
  221
  238
  255
  274
  293
  313
  333
  355
  377
  400
  424
  450
  476
  504
  532
  562
  594
  626
  661
  696
Earnings before tax, $m
  410
  316
  364
  415
  468
  523
  582
  642
  705
  771
  839
  929
  1,003
  1,080
  1,160
  1,243
  1,329
  1,420
  1,514
  1,611
  1,713
  1,820
  1,931
  2,047
  2,168
  2,295
  2,428
  2,566
  2,712
  2,863
  3,023
Tax expense, $m
  2
  85
  98
  112
  126
  141
  157
  173
  190
  208
  227
  251
  271
  292
  313
  336
  359
  383
  409
  435
  463
  491
  521
  553
  585
  620
  655
  693
  732
  773
  816
Net income, $m
  408
  231
  266
  303
  342
  382
  425
  469
  515
  563
  613
  678
  732
  788
  847
  907
  970
  1,036
  1,105
  1,176
  1,251
  1,329
  1,410
  1,494
  1,583
  1,675
  1,772
  1,873
  1,979
  2,090
  2,206

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,109
  4,607
  5,140
  5,701
  6,290
  6,906
  7,549
  8,219
  8,917
  9,643
  10,398
  11,182
  11,997
  12,845
  13,725
  14,641
  15,593
  16,583
  17,614
  18,688
  19,807
  20,973
  22,189
  23,458
  24,783
  26,166
  27,612
  29,122
  30,702
  32,355
  34,084
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,107
  4,607
  5,140
  5,701
  6,290
  6,906
  7,549
  8,219
  8,917
  9,643
  10,398
  11,182
  11,997
  12,845
  13,725
  14,641
  15,593
  16,583
  17,614
  18,688
  19,807
  20,973
  22,189
  23,458
  24,783
  26,166
  27,612
  29,122
  30,702
  32,355
  34,084
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
Average production assets, $m
  2,556
  2,871
  3,203
  3,552
  3,919
  4,303
  4,703
  5,121
  5,556
  6,008
  6,479
  6,967
  7,475
  8,003
  8,552
  9,122
  9,716
  10,333
  10,975
  11,644
  12,341
  13,068
  13,826
  14,616
  15,442
  16,304
  17,204
  18,146
  19,130
  20,160
  21,237
Working capital, $m
  -11
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
Total debt, $m
  2,411
  2,720
  3,050
  3,397
  3,761
  4,143
  4,541
  4,955
  5,387
  5,837
  6,304
  6,790
  7,294
  7,819
  8,364
  8,931
  9,520
  10,133
  10,771
  11,436
  12,128
  12,850
  13,603
  14,389
  15,209
  16,065
  16,960
  17,895
  18,873
  19,896
  20,966
Total liabilities, $m
  2,543
  2,852
  3,182
  3,529
  3,893
  4,275
  4,673
  5,087
  5,519
  5,969
  6,436
  6,922
  7,426
  7,951
  8,496
  9,063
  9,652
  10,265
  10,903
  11,568
  12,260
  12,982
  13,735
  14,521
  15,341
  16,197
  17,092
  18,027
  19,005
  20,028
  21,098
Total equity, $m
  1,566
  1,755
  1,958
  2,172
  2,396
  2,631
  2,876
  3,131
  3,397
  3,674
  3,961
  4,260
  4,571
  4,894
  5,229
  5,578
  5,941
  6,318
  6,711
  7,120
  7,546
  7,991
  8,454
  8,938
  9,442
  9,969
  10,520
  11,096
  11,698
  12,327
  12,986
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,109
  4,607
  5,140
  5,701
  6,289
  6,906
  7,549
  8,218
  8,916
  9,643
  10,397
  11,182
  11,997
  12,845
  13,725
  14,641
  15,593
  16,583
  17,614
  18,688
  19,806
  20,973
  22,189
  23,459
  24,783
  26,166
  27,612
  29,123
  30,703
  32,355
  34,084
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.540
  1.550
  1.560
  1.560
  1.570
  1.570
  1.580
  1.580
  1.590
  1.590
  1.590
  1.590
  1.600
  1.600
  1.600
  1.600
  1.600
  1.600
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  408
  231
  266
  303
  342
  382
  425
  469
  515
  563
  613
  678
  732
  788
  847
  907
  970
  1,036
  1,105
  1,176
  1,251
  1,329
  1,410
  1,494
  1,583
  1,675
  1,772
  1,873
  1,979
  2,090
  2,206
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  96
  119
  131
  143
  156
  169
  184
  198
  213
  229
  246
  244
  262
  281
  300
  320
  341
  363
  385
  409
  433
  459
  485
  513
  542
  572
  604
  637
  671
  707
  745
Funds from operations, $m
  475
  350
  397
  446
  498
  552
  608
  667
  728
  792
  859
  923
  994
  1,069
  1,147
  1,227
  1,311
  1,399
  1,490
  1,585
  1,684
  1,787
  1,895
  2,007
  2,125
  2,248
  2,376
  2,510
  2,651
  2,798
  2,952
Change in working capital, $m
  -17
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
Cash from operations, $m
  492
  350
  396
  446
  497
  551
  608
  667
  728
  792
  858
  922
  994
  1,069
  1,146
  1,227
  1,311
  1,398
  1,489
  1,584
  1,683
  1,786
  1,894
  2,007
  2,124
  2,247
  2,375
  2,509
  2,650
  2,797
  2,951
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -90
  -101
  -112
  -125
  -138
  -151
  -165
  -180
  -195
  -211
  -227
  -244
  -262
  -281
  -300
  -320
  -341
  -363
  -385
  -409
  -433
  -459
  -485
  -513
  -542
  -572
  -604
  -637
  -671
  -707
New CAPEX, $m
  -584
  -315
  -332
  -350
  -367
  -384
  -401
  -418
  -435
  -452
  -470
  -489
  -508
  -528
  -549
  -570
  -593
  -617
  -642
  -669
  -697
  -727
  -758
  -791
  -825
  -862
  -901
  -941
  -984
  -1,030
  -1,077
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1,558
  -405
  -433
  -462
  -492
  -522
  -552
  -583
  -615
  -647
  -681
  -716
  -752
  -790
  -830
  -870
  -913
  -958
  -1,005
  -1,054
  -1,106
  -1,160
  -1,217
  -1,276
  -1,338
  -1,404
  -1,473
  -1,545
  -1,621
  -1,701
  -1,784
Free cash flow, $m
  -1,066
  -55
  -36
  -16
  6
  30
  56
  84
  113
  144
  177
  206
  241
  278
  317
  356
  398
  440
  484
  530
  578
  627
  678
  731
  786
  843
  902
  964
  1,029
  1,096
  1,166
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  1,022
  311
  330
  347
  364
  381
  398
  415
  432
  449
  467
  486
  505
  524
  545
  567
  589
  613
  638
  665
  692
  722
  753
  785
  820
  856
  895
  935
  978
  1,023
  1,070
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  983
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  1,396
  311
  330
  347
  364
  381
  398
  415
  432
  449
  467
  486
  505
  524
  545
  567
  589
  613
  638
  665
  692
  722
  753
  785
  820
  856
  895
  935
  978
  1,023
  1,070
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  330
  256
  294
  331
  370
  411
  454
  499
  545
  594
  644
  692
  746
  803
  862
  923
  987
  1,053
  1,123
  1,195
  1,270
  1,349
  1,431
  1,516
  1,606
  1,699
  1,797
  1,899
  2,007
  2,119
  2,236
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -122
  -189
  -203
  -214
  -224
  -235
  -245
  -255
  -266
  -277
  -288
  -299
  -311
  -323
  -335
  -349
  -363
  -377
  -393
  -409
  -426
  -444
  -463
  -483
  -505
  -527
  -551
  -576
  -602
  -630
  -659
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  67
  90
  117
  146
  177
  209
  243
  279
  317
  357
  393
  436
  480
  526
  574
  624
  676
  730
  786
  844
  904
  967
  1,033
  1,101
  1,172
  1,246
  1,324
  1,405
  1,489
  1,577
Discount rate, %
 
  8.80
  9.24
  9.70
  10.19
  10.70
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.21
  20.17
  21.18
  22.24
  23.35
  24.52
  25.74
  27.03
  28.38
  29.80
  31.29
  32.85
  34.50
  36.22
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  61
  76
  89
  99
  106
  110
  112
  110
  106
  99
  90
  81
  71
  61
  52
  42
  34
  27
  20
  15
  11
  8
  5
  4
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Phillips 66 Partners LP owns, operates, develops, and acquires crude oil, refined petroleum products, and natural gas liquids pipelines and terminals, as well as other transportation midstream assets. It operates pipeline assets in Lake Charles, Sweeny, Wood River, Borger/Ponca City, Billings, and Borger; terminal, rail rack, and storage assets in Louisiana, Texas, Illinois, Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma, New Jersey, Washington, and Montana; marine assets in Lake Charles and Wood River; and natural gas liquids assets in Texas and Louisiana. Phillips 66 Partners GP LLC operates as the general partner of Phillips 66 Partners LP. The company was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Phillips 66 Partners (PSXP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 12.4
Price to Sales 6.7
Price to Book 3.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.3
Price to Free Cash Flow -54.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 22.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -38.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 46%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 153%
Total Debt to Equity 154%
Interest Coverage 11
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 11.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.6%
Return On Total Capital 10.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.8%
Return On Equity 27.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 42.5%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 71.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 62.5%
Operating Margin 45.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 44.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 54%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 49.3%
Net Profit Margin 53.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 49.1%
Effective Tax Rate 0.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.3%
Payout Ratio 92.6%

PSXP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PSXP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $759 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Phillips 66 Partners. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Phillips 66 Partners. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PSXP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 12.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.8%, whose default value for PSXP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Phillips 66 Partners, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Phillips 66 Partners.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PSXP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 39.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $113 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PSXP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Phillips 66 Partners.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Phillips 66 Partners. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PSXP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PSXP are equal to 336.8%.

Life of production assets of 28.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Phillips 66 Partners operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PSXP is equal to 0.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1566 million for Phillips 66 Partners - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 102.72 million for Phillips 66 Partners is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Phillips 66 Partners at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.7 billion.

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PSX Phillips 66 82.23 889.09  str.buy
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Financial statements of PSXP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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