Intrinsic value of Pernix Therapeutics Holdings - PTX

Previous Close

$2.67

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

  Value-price divergence*

-91%

Previous close

$2.67

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-91%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of PTX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -19.89
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  141
  144
  147
  151
  155
  160
  165
  171
  177
  183
  190
  198
  206
  214
  223
  233
  243
  254
  266
  278
  290
  304
  318
  333
  349
  365
  383
  401
  421
  441
  463
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  227
  233
  239
  245
  252
  261
  269
  279
  289
  300
  309
  321
  334
  349
  364
  380
  397
  414
  433
  453
  474
  496
  520
  544
  570
  597
  626
  656
  688
  722
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  281
  227
  233
  239
  245
  252
  261
  269
  279
  289
  300
  309
  321
  334
  349
  364
  380
  397
  414
  433
  453
  474
  496
  520
  544
  570
  597
  626
  656
  688
  722
Operating income, $m
  -140
  -84
  -85
  -88
  -90
  -93
  -96
  -99
  -102
  -106
  -110
  -111
  -115
  -120
  -125
  -131
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -163
  -170
  -178
  -187
  -195
  -205
  -214
  -225
  -236
  -247
  -259
EBITDA, $m
  -53
  -57
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -159
  -167
  -175
  -184
Interest expense (income), $m
  30
  29
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  62
  65
  69
  73
Earnings before tax, $m
  -169
  -113
  -101
  -104
  -107
  -110
  -114
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -133
  -135
  -141
  -148
  -154
  -162
  -169
  -177
  -186
  -195
  -204
  -214
  -225
  -236
  -247
  -260
  -273
  -286
  -301
  -316
  -332
Tax expense, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -170
  -113
  -101
  -104
  -107
  -110
  -114
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -133
  -135
  -141
  -148
  -154
  -162
  -169
  -177
  -186
  -195
  -204
  -214
  -225
  -236
  -247
  -260
  -273
  -286
  -301
  -316
  -332

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  36
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  310
  316
  323
  332
  341
  351
  363
  375
  388
  403
  418
  435
  452
  471
  491
  512
  535
  559
  584
  610
  638
  668
  699
  732
  767
  803
  842
  882
  925
  969
  1,017
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  274
  316
  323
  332
  341
  351
  363
  375
  388
  403
  418
  435
  452
  471
  491
  512
  535
  559
  584
  610
  638
  668
  699
  732
  767
  803
  842
  882
  925
  969
  1,017
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.515
  0.456
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.456
  0.455
  0.456
  0.456
  0.454
  0.455
  0.455
  0.456
  0.454
  0.454
  0.455
  0.454
  0.454
  0.455
  0.456
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
  0.455
Average production assets, $m
  230
  235
  240
  246
  253
  261
  269
  278
  288
  299
  310
  323
  336
  350
  365
  380
  397
  415
  433
  453
  474
  496
  519
  543
  569
  596
  625
  655
  686
  719
  754
Working capital, $m
  -1
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
Total debt, $m
  301
  161
  168
  176
  184
  193
  203
  215
  227
  240
  253
  268
  284
  301
  319
  338
  358
  380
  402
  426
  452
  478
  506
  536
  567
  600
  634
  671
  709
  749
  792
Total liabilities, $m
  425
  284
  291
  299
  307
  316
  326
  338
  350
  363
  376
  391
  407
  424
  442
  461
  481
  503
  525
  549
  575
  601
  629
  659
  690
  723
  757
  794
  832
  872
  915
Total equity, $m
  -114
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  97
  102
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  311
  316
  323
  332
  341
  351
  362
  376
  389
  403
  418
  434
  452
  471
  491
  512
  534
  559
  583
  610
  639
  668
  699
  732
  767
  803
  841
  882
  924
  969
  1,017
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -2.640
  5.110
  5.200
  5.290
  5.390
  5.500
  5.610
  5.720
  5.830
  5.950
  6.060
  6.170
  6.280
  6.390
  6.500
  6.600
  6.700
  6.800
  6.890
  6.980
  7.070
  7.160
  7.240
  7.320
  7.400
  7.470
  7.540
  7.610
  7.670
  7.730
  7.790
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.547
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -170
  -113
  -101
  -104
  -107
  -110
  -114
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -133
  -135
  -141
  -148
  -154
  -162
  -169
  -177
  -186
  -195
  -204
  -214
  -225
  -236
  -247
  -260
  -273
  -286
  -301
  -316
  -332
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  87
  27
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  54
  57
  60
  62
  65
  69
  72
  75
Funds from operations, $m
  6
  -86
  -74
  -76
  -79
  -81
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -129
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -157
  -164
  -173
  -181
  -190
  -200
  -210
  -221
  -232
  -244
  -256
Change in working capital, $m
  23
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Cash from operations, $m
  -17
  -86
  -74
  -76
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -87
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -128
  -135
  -141
  -148
  -155
  -163
  -171
  -180
  -189
  -198
  -208
  -219
  -230
  -242
  -254
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -2
  -28
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -107
Free cash flow, $m
  -19
  -114
  -103
  -106
  -110
  -114
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -134
  -139
  -146
  -152
  -159
  -167
  -175
  -183
  -192
  -201
  -211
  -221
  -232
  -244
  -256
  -269
  -282
  -297
  -311
  -327
  -344
  -361
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -21
  -140
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  20
  258
  102
  105
  108
  111
  115
  120
  124
  129
  134
  137
  143
  150
  156
  164
  171
  179
  188
  197
  207
  217
  228
  239
  251
  263
  276
  290
  305
  320
  336
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -2
  118
  109
  112
  116
  120
  125
  131
  136
  142
  148
  152
  159
  167
  174
  183
  191
  200
  211
  221
  232
  244
  256
  269
  282
  296
  311
  326
  343
  360
  378
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -20
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  147
  -258
  -102
  -105
  -108
  -111
  -115
  -120
  -124
  -129
  -134
  -137
  -143
  -150
  -156
  -164
  -171
  -179
  -188
  -197
  -207
  -217
  -228
  -239
  -251
  -263
  -276
  -290
  -305
  -320
  -336
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -253
  -96
  -99
  -101
  -104
  -108
  -112
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -131
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -163
  -171
  -179
  -187
  -196
  -206
  -216
  -227
  -238
  -250
  -262
  -275
  -289
  -303
  -319
Discount rate, %
 
  16.10
  16.91
  17.75
  18.64
  19.57
  20.55
  21.58
  22.65
  23.79
  24.98
  26.23
  27.54
  28.91
  30.36
  31.88
  33.47
  35.14
  36.90
  38.75
  40.68
  42.72
  44.85
  47.10
  49.45
  51.92
  54.52
  57.25
  60.11
  63.11
  66.27
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -218
  -70
  -60
  -51
  -43
  -35
  -28
  -23
  -18
  -14
  -10
  -7
  -5
  -4
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  11.8
  2.8
  0.7
  0.2
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Pernix Therapeutics Holdings, Inc., a specialty pharmaceutical company, develops, manufactures, markets, and sells pharmaceutical products. The company’s products comprise Treximet, a medication indicated for the acute treatment of migraine attacks in adults; Zohydro ER with BeadTek, an opioid agonist indicated for the management of pain; Silenor, a medication indicated for the treatment of insomnia characterized by difficulty with sleep maintenance; and Khedezla, a prescription medication for major depressive disorder. Its products also include CEDAX, an oral cephalosporin used for the treatment of mild to moderate acute bacterial exacerbations of chronic bronchitis, middle ear infection due to haemophilus influenza, or streptococcus pyogene; Zutripro and Rezira for the relief of cough and nasal congestion; Vituz, a hydrocodone bitartrate and chlorpheniramine maleate combination oral solution for the treatment of cough and allergies associated with the common cold; and OMECLAMOX-PAK, a gastroenterology product. The company sells its products through its sales force and third-party sales organizations, as well as through its subsidiaries. It serves drug wholesalers, retail drug stores, mass merchandisers, and grocery store pharmacies in the United States. Pernix Therapeutics Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Morristown, New Jersey.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Pernix Therapeutics Holdings (PTX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -0.2
Price to Sales 0.2
Price to Book -0.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -1.6
Price to Free Cash Flow -1.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -19.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -254.4%
Total Debt to Equity -264%
Interest Coverage -5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -34.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -22.4%
Return On Total Capital -63.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -39.3%
Return On Equity 419.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 43.6%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 69.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 67.7%
EBITDA Margin -36.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -18.2%
Operating Margin -99.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -60.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -119.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -80%
Net Profit Margin -120.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -77.8%
Effective Tax Rate -0.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

PTX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PTX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $141 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Pernix Therapeutics Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Pernix Therapeutics Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PTX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 16.1%, whose default value for PTX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Pernix Therapeutics Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Pernix Therapeutics Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PTX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 158.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PTX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 9.7% for Pernix Therapeutics Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Pernix Therapeutics Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PTX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PTX are equal to 163.1%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Pernix Therapeutics Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PTX is equal to -10%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-114 million for Pernix Therapeutics Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 9.269 million for Pernix Therapeutics Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Pernix Therapeutics Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Pernix Therapeutics Added to Russell Microcap® Index   [Jun-28-17 04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Platinex Inc.-Proposed Private Placement   [Apr-18-17 04:00PM  Marketwired]
▶ Pernix: An Investor's Rationale to Staying Long   [Mar-23-17 04:44PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Webcast-Q4 Earnings Call for Pernix Therapeutics Holdings, Inc.   [Mar-16-17 12:14AM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ Pernix Therapeutics Provides Update on Arbitration   [Feb-03-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Drugmakers Turn Cheap Generics Into Expensive Pills   [12:31AM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Drugmakers Turn Cheap Generics Into Expensive Pills   [Oct-30-16 01:42PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Todays Hot Stocks: Buckle, Boeing, Ford, and More   [09:21AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Pernix Therapeutics Announces CEO Transition   [08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Is Pernix Therapeutics in a Race to Zero?   [May-05-16 01:40PM  at 24/7 Wall St.]
Stock chart of PTX Financial statements of PTX
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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