Intrinsic value of Quanta Services - PWR

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$31.62

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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$31.62

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of PWR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  1.04
  10.70
  10.13
  9.62
  9.16
  8.74
  8.37
  8.03
  7.73
  7.45
  7.21
  6.99
  6.79
  6.61
  6.45
  6.30
  6.17
  6.06
  5.95
  5.86
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.51
  5.45
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
Revenue, $m
  7,651
  8,470
  9,328
  10,225
  11,161
  12,136
  13,151
  14,207
  15,305
  16,446
  17,631
  18,863
  20,144
  21,475
  22,860
  24,302
  25,802
  27,364
  28,993
  30,690
  32,461
  34,309
  36,239
  38,254
  40,360
  42,562
  44,864
  47,272
  49,793
  52,431
  55,193
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  8,190
  9,003
  9,854
  10,741
  11,666
  12,629
  13,630
  14,670
  15,752
  16,876
  17,883
  19,097
  20,360
  21,673
  23,039
  24,461
  25,943
  27,487
  29,096
  30,775
  32,527
  34,356
  36,267
  38,263
  40,350
  42,533
  44,816
  47,206
  49,707
  52,326
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  7,331
  8,190
  9,003
  9,854
  10,741
  11,666
  12,629
  13,630
  14,670
  15,752
  16,876
  17,883
  19,097
  20,360
  21,673
  23,039
  24,461
  25,943
  27,487
  29,096
  30,775
  32,527
  34,356
  36,267
  38,263
  40,350
  42,533
  44,816
  47,206
  49,707
  52,326
Operating income, $m
  321
  280
  324
  371
  420
  470
  523
  578
  635
  694
  756
  980
  1,047
  1,116
  1,188
  1,263
  1,340
  1,422
  1,506
  1,594
  1,686
  1,782
  1,883
  1,987
  2,097
  2,211
  2,331
  2,456
  2,587
  2,724
  2,867
EBITDA, $m
  523
  511
  563
  617
  673
  732
  793
  857
  923
  992
  1,064
  1,138
  1,215
  1,296
  1,379
  1,466
  1,557
  1,651
  1,749
  1,851
  1,958
  2,070
  2,186
  2,308
  2,435
  2,568
  2,707
  2,852
  3,004
  3,163
  3,330
Interest expense (income), $m
  13
  12
  20
  28
  36
  45
  54
  63
  73
  83
  93
  104
  115
  127
  139
  152
  165
  179
  193
  208
  224
  240
  257
  275
  293
  313
  333
  354
  376
  399
  424
Earnings before tax, $m
  308
  267
  304
  343
  384
  426
  469
  515
  562
  611
  663
  876
  931
  989
  1,048
  1,110
  1,175
  1,243
  1,313
  1,386
  1,463
  1,542
  1,626
  1,713
  1,803
  1,898
  1,998
  2,102
  2,211
  2,325
  2,444
Tax expense, $m
  108
  72
  82
  93
  104
  115
  127
  139
  152
  165
  179
  237
  251
  267
  283
  300
  317
  336
  354
  374
  395
  416
  439
  462
  487
  513
  539
  567
  597
  628
  660
Net income, $m
  198
  195
  222
  250
  280
  311
  343
  376
  410
  446
  484
  639
  680
  722
  765
  811
  858
  907
  958
  1,012
  1,068
  1,126
  1,187
  1,250
  1,317
  1,386
  1,458
  1,534
  1,614
  1,697
  1,784

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  112
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5,354
  5,801
  6,389
  7,003
  7,644
  8,312
  9,008
  9,731
  10,483
  11,264
  12,076
  12,920
  13,797
  14,709
  15,658
  16,645
  17,672
  18,743
  19,858
  21,021
  22,234
  23,500
  24,821
  26,201
  27,644
  29,152
  30,729
  32,378
  34,104
  35,911
  37,803
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,242
  5,801
  6,389
  7,003
  7,644
  8,312
  9,008
  9,731
  10,483
  11,264
  12,076
  12,920
  13,797
  14,709
  15,658
  16,645
  17,672
  18,743
  19,858
  21,021
  22,234
  23,500
  24,821
  26,201
  27,644
  29,152
  30,729
  32,378
  34,104
  35,911
  37,803
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.460
  1.460
  1.460
  1.460
  1.460
  1.460
  1.460
  1.460
  1.460
  1.460
  1.460
  1.460
  1.460
  1.460
  1.460
  1.460
  1.460
  1.460
  1.460
  1.460
  1.460
  1.460
  1.460
  1.460
  1.460
  1.460
  1.460
  1.460
  1.460
  1.460
  1.460
Average production assets, $m
  1,334
  830
  914
  1,002
  1,094
  1,189
  1,289
  1,392
  1,500
  1,612
  1,728
  1,849
  1,974
  2,105
  2,240
  2,382
  2,529
  2,682
  2,841
  3,008
  3,181
  3,362
  3,551
  3,749
  3,955
  4,171
  4,397
  4,633
  4,880
  5,138
  5,409
Working capital, $m
  1,084
  1,084
  1,194
  1,309
  1,429
  1,553
  1,683
  1,819
  1,959
  2,105
  2,257
  2,415
  2,578
  2,749
  2,926
  3,111
  3,303
  3,503
  3,711
  3,928
  4,155
  4,392
  4,639
  4,897
  5,166
  5,448
  5,743
  6,051
  6,373
  6,711
  7,065
Total debt, $m
  361
  568
  793
  1,028
  1,274
  1,530
  1,796
  2,073
  2,361
  2,660
  2,971
  3,294
  3,630
  3,980
  4,343
  4,721
  5,115
  5,524
  5,952
  6,397
  6,862
  7,346
  7,852
  8,381
  8,934
  9,511
  10,115
  10,747
  11,408
  12,100
  12,825
Total liabilities, $m
  2,015
  2,222
  2,447
  2,682
  2,928
  3,184
  3,450
  3,727
  4,015
  4,314
  4,625
  4,948
  5,284
  5,634
  5,997
  6,375
  6,769
  7,178
  7,606
  8,051
  8,516
  9,000
  9,506
  10,035
  10,588
  11,165
  11,769
  12,401
  13,062
  13,754
  14,479
Total equity, $m
  3,339
  3,579
  3,942
  4,321
  4,717
  5,129
  5,558
  6,004
  6,468
  6,950
  7,451
  7,972
  8,513
  9,076
  9,661
  10,270
  10,904
  11,564
  12,252
  12,970
  13,718
  14,499
  15,315
  16,166
  17,056
  17,987
  18,960
  19,977
  21,042
  22,157
  23,325
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5,354
  5,801
  6,389
  7,003
  7,645
  8,313
  9,008
  9,731
  10,483
  11,264
  12,076
  12,920
  13,797
  14,710
  15,658
  16,645
  17,673
  18,742
  19,858
  21,021
  22,234
  23,499
  24,821
  26,201
  27,644
  29,152
  30,729
  32,378
  34,104
  35,911
  37,804
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.108
  0.160
  0.200
  0.240
  0.270
  0.300
  0.320
  0.350
  0.370
  0.380
  0.400
  0.410
  0.430
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.490
  0.500
  0.510
  0.510
  0.520
  0.520
  0.530
  0.530
  0.540
  0.540
  0.550
  0.550
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.616
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617
  0.617

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  198
  195
  222
  250
  280
  311
  343
  376
  410
  446
  484
  639
  680
  722
  765
  811
  858
  907
  958
  1,012
  1,068
  1,126
  1,187
  1,250
  1,317
  1,386
  1,458
  1,534
  1,614
  1,697
  1,784
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  202
  231
  238
  246
  254
  262
  270
  279
  288
  298
  308
  158
  169
  180
  191
  204
  216
  229
  243
  257
  272
  287
  304
  320
  338
  356
  376
  396
  417
  439
  462
Funds from operations, $m
  322
  426
  461
  496
  534
  573
  613
  655
  699
  744
  792
  797
  849
  902
  957
  1,014
  1,074
  1,136
  1,201
  1,269
  1,340
  1,413
  1,490
  1,571
  1,655
  1,742
  1,834
  1,930
  2,031
  2,136
  2,246
Change in working capital, $m
  -58
  105
  110
  115
  120
  125
  130
  135
  141
  146
  152
  158
  164
  170
  177
  184
  192
  200
  208
  217
  227
  237
  247
  258
  270
  282
  295
  308
  323
  338
  354
Cash from operations, $m
  380
  -238
  351
  382
  414
  448
  483
  520
  558
  598
  640
  640
  685
  731
  780
  830
  882
  936
  993
  1,052
  1,113
  1,177
  1,243
  1,313
  1,385
  1,461
  1,540
  1,622
  1,708
  1,798
  1,893
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -64
  -71
  -78
  -86
  -93
  -102
  -110
  -119
  -128
  -138
  -148
  -158
  -169
  -180
  -191
  -204
  -216
  -229
  -243
  -257
  -272
  -287
  -304
  -320
  -338
  -356
  -376
  -396
  -417
  -439
New CAPEX, $m
  -213
  -83
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -112
  -116
  -121
  -125
  -130
  -136
  -141
  -147
  -153
  -160
  -166
  -174
  -181
  -189
  -198
  -206
  -216
  -226
  -236
  -247
  -259
  -271
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -272
  -147
  -155
  -166
  -178
  -189
  -201
  -213
  -227
  -240
  -254
  -269
  -283
  -299
  -316
  -332
  -351
  -369
  -389
  -409
  -431
  -453
  -476
  -502
  -526
  -554
  -582
  -612
  -643
  -676
  -710
Free cash flow, $m
  108
  -385
  196
  216
  237
  259
  282
  306
  332
  358
  386
  371
  401
  432
  464
  497
  531
  567
  604
  642
  682
  724
  767
  812
  858
  907
  957
  1,010
  1,065
  1,123
  1,183
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -125
  215
  225
  235
  246
  256
  266
  277
  288
  299
  311
  323
  336
  349
  363
  378
  394
  410
  427
  445
  465
  485
  506
  529
  552
  578
  604
  632
  661
  692
  725
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  411
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -125
  626
  225
  235
  246
  256
  266
  277
  288
  299
  311
  323
  336
  349
  363
  378
  394
  410
  427
  445
  465
  485
  506
  529
  552
  578
  604
  632
  661
  692
  725
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -17
  -170
  421
  451
  482
  515
  548
  583
  620
  658
  697
  695
  737
  781
  827
  875
  925
  977
  1,031
  1,088
  1,147
  1,208
  1,273
  1,340
  1,411
  1,484
  1,561
  1,642
  1,726
  1,815
  1,908
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -254
  -344
  -363
  -379
  -396
  -412
  -429
  -446
  -464
  -482
  -501
  -521
  -541
  -563
  -585
  -609
  -634
  -660
  -688
  -717
  -748
  -781
  -815
  -852
  -890
  -930
  -973
  -1,018
  -1,065
  -1,115
  -1,167
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  104
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  58
  72
  87
  102
  119
  137
  156
  176
  196
  174
  196
  219
  242
  266
  291
  317
  343
  370
  398
  427
  458
  489
  521
  554
  588
  624
  661
  700
  740
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  53
  62
  71
  79
  87
  93
  97
  101
  103
  83
  84
  83
  81
  78
  74
  69
  63
  57
  51
  44
  38
  32
  27
  22
  17
  13
  10
  8
  6
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  91.7
  91.7
  91.7
  91.7
  91.7
  91.7
  91.7
  91.7
  91.7
  91.7
  91.7
  91.7
  91.7
  91.7
  91.7
  91.7
  91.7
  91.7
  91.7
  91.7
  91.7
  91.7
  91.7
  91.7
  91.7
  91.7
  91.7
  91.7
  91.7
  91.7

Quanta Services, Inc. provides specialty contracting services to the electric power, and oil and gas industries in North America and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Electric Power Infrastructure Services and Oil and Gas Infrastructure Services. The company’s Electric Power Infrastructure Services segment provides network solutions comprising design, installation, upgrade, repair, and maintenance of electric power transmission and distribution infrastructure, and substation facilities. It also provides emergency restoration services, including the repair of infrastructure. In addition, this segment designs, installs, and maintains renewable energy generation facilities comprising solar, wind, and various types of natural gas generation facilities, as well as related switchyards and transmission infrastructure to transport power; and commercial and industrial wiring. Further, it installs traffic networks; cable and control systems for light rail lines; and ancillary telecommunication infrastructure services. The company’s Oil and Gas Infrastructure Services segment provides network solutions to customers involved in the development and transportation of natural gas, oil, and other pipeline products. Its services include the design, installation, repair, and maintenance of pipeline transmission and distribution systems, gathering systems, production systems, and compressor and pump stations, as well as related trenching, directional boring, and automatic welding services. This segment also provides pipeline protection; integrity testing; rehabilitation and replacement; fabrication of pipeline support systems, and related structures and facilities; and infrastructure services for the offshore and inland water energy markets. In addition, it designs, installs, and maintains fueling systems, as well as water and sewer infrastructure. The company was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Quanta Services (PWR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 24.2
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 1.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 28.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 1.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -0.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 14
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 10.6%
Total Debt to Equity 10.8%
Interest Coverage 25
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.8%
Return On Total Capital 5.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.6%
Return On Equity 6.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Asset Turnover 1.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 13.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.5%
EBITDA Margin 6.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Operating Margin 4.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Net Profit Margin 2.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Effective Tax Rate 35.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

PWR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PWR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $7651 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Quanta Services. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Quanta Services. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PWR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for PWR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Quanta Services, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Quanta Services.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PWR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 96.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PWR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Quanta Services.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Quanta Services. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PWR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PWR are equal to 9.8%.

Life of production assets of 11.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Quanta Services operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PWR is equal to 12.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3339 million for Quanta Services - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 147.974 million for Quanta Services is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Quanta Services at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.7 billion.


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Stock chart of PWR Financial statements of PWR Annual reports of PWR
Valuation of Stocks

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