Intrinsic value of Payment Data Systems - PYDS

Previous Close

$1.49

  Intrinsic Value

$1.99

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+33%

  Value-price divergence*

-51%

Previous close

$1.49

 
Intrinsic value

$1.99

 
Up/down potential

+33%

 
Rating

buy

 
Value-price divergence*

-51%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of PYDS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -14.29
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  39
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
Total operating expenses, $m
  13
  12
  13
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  26
  28
Operating income, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
EBITDA, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
Earnings before tax, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
Net income, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  70
  67
  69
  71
  73
  75
  77
  80
  83
  86
  89
  93
  96
  100
  105
  109
  114
  119
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  163
  171
  179
  188
  197
  206
  216
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  66
  67
  69
  71
  73
  75
  77
  80
  83
  86
  89
  93
  96
  100
  105
  109
  114
  119
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  163
  171
  179
  188
  197
  206
  216
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.182
  0.179
  0.188
  0.183
  0.178
  0.187
  0.182
  0.188
  0.181
  0.186
  0.180
  0.183
  0.188
  0.180
  0.181
  0.183
  0.184
  0.185
  0.185
  0.185
  0.184
  0.183
  0.181
  0.179
  0.184
  0.181
  0.184
  0.181
  0.183
  0.184
  0.181
Average production assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total debt, $m
  0
  0
  1
  3
  4
  6
  8
  11
  13
  16
  19
  22
  26
  29
  33
  37
  41
  46
  51
  56
  61
  67
  73
  79
  86
  93
  100
  108
  116
  125
  134
Total liabilities, $m
  61
  61
  62
  64
  65
  67
  69
  72
  74
  77
  80
  83
  87
  90
  94
  98
  102
  107
  112
  117
  122
  128
  134
  140
  147
  154
  161
  169
  177
  186
  195
Total equity, $m
  9
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  70
  68
  69
  71
  72
  74
  77
  80
  82
  86
  89
  92
  97
  100
  104
  109
  113
  119
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  163
  171
  179
  188
  197
  207
  217
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  -0.070
  0.130
  0.360
  0.590
  0.840
  1.090
  1.360
  1.620
  1.880
  2.150
  2.410
  2.660
  2.920
  3.160
  3.400
  3.640
  3.870
  4.090
  4.300
  4.510
  4.710
  4.900
  5.080
  5.260
  5.430
  5.590
  5.750
  5.900
  6.040
  6.180
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.076
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  0
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  2
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  0
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  0
  -2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  3
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  3
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  84.8
  83.4
  81.7
  79.9
  78.0
  76.1
  74.4
  73.0
  71.7
  70.7
  70.0
  69.6
  69.5
  69.5
  69.5
  69.5
  69.5
  69.5
  69.5
  69.5
  69.5
  69.5
  69.5
  69.5
  69.5
  69.5
  69.5
  69.5
  69.5
  69.5

Payment Data Systems, Inc. is engaged in the business of processing electronic payments for other companies, including a range of automated clearing house (ACH) processing, credit, prepaid card and debit card-based processing. The Company is an integrated payment solutions provider offering a range of services to merchants, billers, banks, service bureaus, and card issuers. It operates through two operating entities: Payment Data Systems, Inc. and FiCentive, Inc. Payment Data Systems, Inc. provides integrated electronic payment processing services to merchants and businesses, including credit and debit card-based processing services and transaction processing through the ACH network. Its ACH processing services enable merchants or businesses to both disburse and collect funds electronically using e-checks to transfer funds instead of traditional paper checks. The Company provides prepaid card processing services for merchants and consumers through its subsidiary, FiCentive, Inc.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Payment Data Systems (PYDS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -17.6
Price to Sales 1.5
Price to Book 2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 17.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 17.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -14.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -100%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -1.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Return On Total Capital -11.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.8%
Return On Equity -11.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.8%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 33.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.3%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.5%
Operating Margin -8.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Pre-Tax Margin -8.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Net Profit Margin -8.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.9%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -33.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

PYDS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PYDS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $12 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Payment Data Systems. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Payment Data Systems. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PYDS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for PYDS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Payment Data Systems, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Payment Data Systems.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PYDS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 16.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $10 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PYDS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Payment Data Systems.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Payment Data Systems. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PYDS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PYDS are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of 0 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Payment Data Systems operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PYDS is equal to 0%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $9 million for Payment Data Systems - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 11.952 million for Payment Data Systems is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Payment Data Systems at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Payment Data Systems Acquires Singular Payments, LLC   [Sep-06-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Payment Data Systems Announces 2017 Second Quarter Results   [Aug-14-17 04:08PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Payment Data Systems to Report Second Quarter 2017 Results   [Aug-10-17 04:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Payment Data Systems Announces First Quarter Results   [May-15-17 04:53PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Local finance company to acquire Florida tech startup   [Mar-15-17 12:05PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Local finance company to acquire Florida tech startup   [12:05PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Payment Data Systems Targeting Growth in 2017   [Jan-30-17 02:53PM  Accesswire]
▶ Payment Data Systems' CFO resigns, board member steps into role   [Jan-11-17 06:18PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Payment Data Systems' CFO resigns, board member steps into role   [06:18PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Payment Data Systems Announces New Corporate Partner   [Dec-20-16 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Payment Data Systems Announces Share Repurchase Program   [Nov-02-16 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Heres Why These Five Stocks Are Surging   [12:58PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Payment Data Systems Names Louis Hoch President and CEO   [Aug-08-16 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Payment Data Systems to Report First Quarter 2016 Results   [May-02-16 08:15AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Payment Data Systems (PYDS) Offers Significant Upside   [Apr-13-16 09:20AM  Accesswire]
▶ Payment Data Systems reports Q4 results   [Mar-24-16 08:55PM  at noodls]
Financial statements of PYDS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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