Intrinsic value of Pzena Investment Management - PZN

Previous Close

$9.13

  Intrinsic Value

$157.22

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+999%

Previous close

$9.13

 
Intrinsic value

$157.22

 
Up/down potential

+999%

 
Rating

str. buy

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as PZN.

We calculate the intrinsic value of PZN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -7.69
  30.40
  27.86
  25.57
  23.52
  21.66
  20.00
  18.50
  17.15
  15.93
  14.84
  13.86
  12.97
  12.17
  11.46
  10.81
  10.23
  9.71
  9.24
  8.81
  8.43
  8.09
  7.78
  7.50
  7.25
  7.03
  6.82
  6.64
  6.48
  6.33
  6.20
Revenue, $m
  108
  184
  235
  295
  365
  444
  532
  631
  739
  857
  984
  1,120
  1,266
  1,420
  1,582
  1,753
  1,933
  2,120
  2,316
  2,520
  2,733
  2,954
  3,183
  3,422
  3,670
  3,928
  4,196
  4,475
  4,765
  5,066
  5,380
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  62
  78
  97
  119
  144
  172
  203
  238
  275
  315
  355
  402
  450
  502
  556
  613
  673
  735
  800
  867
  937
  1,010
  1,086
  1,165
  1,246
  1,332
  1,420
  1,512
  1,608
  1,707
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  26
  26
  27
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  30
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
Total operating expenses, $m
  61
  88
  104
  124
  146
  172
  200
  232
  268
  305
  346
  387
  434
  483
  536
  591
  648
  709
  772
  838
  906
  976
  1,050
  1,127
  1,207
  1,289
  1,376
  1,465
  1,558
  1,655
  1,755
Operating income, $m
  47
  97
  131
  172
  218
  272
  332
  398
  472
  551
  637
  733
  832
  936
  1,046
  1,162
  1,284
  1,411
  1,544
  1,683
  1,827
  1,977
  2,133
  2,295
  2,464
  2,639
  2,821
  3,010
  3,207
  3,412
  3,625
EBITDA, $m
  48
  126
  168
  217
  274
  339
  411
  492
  581
  677
  782
  894
  1,013
  1,139
  1,273
  1,414
  1,561
  1,715
  1,876
  2,044
  2,219
  2,400
  2,589
  2,786
  2,990
  3,202
  3,422
  3,651
  3,890
  4,138
  4,396
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
Earnings before tax, $m
  -1
  96
  130
  170
  217
  271
  331
  397
  470
  550
  636
  732
  830
  935
  1,045
  1,161
  1,283
  1,410
  1,543
  1,682
  1,826
  1,976
  2,132
  2,294
  2,462
  2,638
  2,820
  3,009
  3,206
  3,411
  3,624
Tax expense, $m
  -55
  26
  35
  46
  59
  73
  89
  107
  127
  149
  172
  198
  224
  252
  282
  314
  346
  381
  417
  454
  493
  533
  576
  619
  665
  712
  761
  812
  866
  921
  978
Net income, $m
  16
  70
  95
  124
  159
  198
  241
  290
  343
  402
  464
  534
  606
  682
  763
  848
  936
  1,029
  1,126
  1,228
  1,333
  1,442
  1,556
  1,675
  1,798
  1,925
  2,058
  2,197
  2,340
  2,490
  2,645

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  44
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  179
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  135
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.800
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
Average production assets, $m
  8
  263
  337
  423
  523
  636
  763
  904
  1,059
  1,228
  1,410
  1,605
  1,814
  2,034
  2,267
  2,512
  2,769
  3,038
  3,319
  3,611
  3,916
  4,233
  4,562
  4,904
  5,260
  5,629
  6,013
  6,413
  6,828
  7,260
  7,710
Working capital, $m
  0
  -91
  -116
  -146
  -180
  -219
  -263
  -312
  -365
  -423
  -486
  -553
  -625
  -701
  -782
  -866
  -955
  -1,047
  -1,144
  -1,245
  -1,350
  -1,459
  -1,573
  -1,691
  -1,813
  -1,941
  -2,073
  -2,211
  -2,354
  -2,503
  -2,658
Total debt, $m
  0
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
Total liabilities, $m
  151
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total equity, $m
  28
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  179
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.119
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  16
  70
  95
  124
  159
  198
  241
  290
  343
  402
  464
  534
  606
  682
  763
  848
  936
  1,029
  1,126
  1,228
  1,333
  1,442
  1,556
  1,675
  1,798
  1,925
  2,058
  2,197
  2,340
  2,490
  2,645
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1
  30
  37
  46
  55
  67
  79
  94
  109
  126
  144
  161
  181
  203
  227
  251
  277
  304
  332
  361
  392
  423
  456
  490
  526
  563
  601
  641
  683
  726
  771
Funds from operations, $m
  63
  99
  132
  170
  214
  264
  321
  384
  452
  528
  609
  695
  788
  886
  990
  1,099
  1,213
  1,333
  1,458
  1,589
  1,724
  1,866
  2,012
  2,165
  2,324
  2,488
  2,660
  2,838
  3,023
  3,216
  3,416
Change in working capital, $m
  4
  -21
  -25
  -30
  -34
  -39
  -44
  -49
  -53
  -58
  -63
  -67
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -109
  -114
  -118
  -123
  -127
  -132
  -138
  -143
  -149
  -155
Cash from operations, $m
  59
  121
  157
  200
  248
  303
  365
  432
  506
  586
  671
  762
  859
  962
  1,070
  1,183
  1,302
  1,426
  1,555
  1,689
  1,829
  1,975
  2,126
  2,283
  2,446
  2,616
  2,792
  2,975
  3,166
  3,365
  3,572
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -20
  -26
  -34
  -42
  -52
  -64
  -76
  -90
  -106
  -123
  -141
  -161
  -181
  -203
  -227
  -251
  -277
  -304
  -332
  -361
  -392
  -423
  -456
  -490
  -526
  -563
  -601
  -641
  -683
  -726
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  -61
  -73
  -86
  -99
  -113
  -127
  -141
  -155
  -169
  -182
  -195
  -208
  -221
  -233
  -245
  -257
  -269
  -281
  -292
  -304
  -317
  -329
  -342
  -356
  -370
  -384
  -399
  -415
  -432
  -450
Cash from investing activities, $m
  0
  -81
  -99
  -120
  -141
  -165
  -191
  -217
  -245
  -275
  -305
  -336
  -369
  -402
  -436
  -472
  -508
  -546
  -585
  -624
  -665
  -709
  -752
  -798
  -846
  -896
  -947
  -1,000
  -1,056
  -1,115
  -1,176
Free cash flow, $m
  59
  39
  57
  80
  107
  138
  174
  215
  261
  311
  366
  426
  491
  560
  634
  712
  794
  880
  971
  1,065
  1,164
  1,266
  1,373
  1,485
  1,600
  1,720
  1,845
  1,975
  2,110
  2,250
  2,396
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -44
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  14
  39
  57
  80
  107
  138
  174
  215
  261
  311
  366
  426
  491
  560
  634
  712
  794
  880
  971
  1,065
  1,164
  1,266
  1,373
  1,485
  1,600
  1,720
  1,845
  1,975
  2,110
  2,250
  2,396
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -10
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  11
  14
  18
  22
  27
  33
  40
  47
  55
  64
  74
  84
  95
  106
  119
  131
  145
  159
  174
  189
  205
  222
  239
  257
  275
  295
  315
  336
  357
  380
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  39
  57
  80
  107
  138
  174
  215
  261
  311
  366
  426
  491
  560
  634
  712
  794
  880
  971
  1,065
  1,164
  1,266
  1,373
  1,485
  1,600
  1,720
  1,845
  1,975
  2,110
  2,250
  2,396
Discount rate, %
 
  5.60
  5.88
  6.17
  6.48
  6.81
  7.15
  7.50
  7.88
  8.27
  8.69
  9.12
  9.58
  10.06
  10.56
  11.09
  11.64
  12.22
  12.84
  13.48
  14.15
  14.86
  15.60
  16.38
  17.20
  18.06
  18.96
  19.91
  20.91
  21.95
  23.05
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  37
  51
  67
  83
  99
  115
  129
  142
  152
  159
  163
  164
  161
  155
  147
  136
  124
  110
  96
  82
  69
  57
  45
  35
  27
  20
  15
  10
  7
  5
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Pzena Investment Management, Inc. is a holding company. The Company is the sole managing member of Pzena Investment Management, LLC. Pzena Investment Management, LLC is an investment management company. The Company also serves as the general partner of Pzena Investment Management, LP. The Company offers institutional investment products to public and corporate pension funds, endowments, foundations and certain commingled vehicles geared toward institutional investors. The Company also offers access to certain of its global and non-United States strategies through private placement vehicles and collective investment trusts. Pzena Investment Management, LLC is its operating company. Pzena Investment Management, LLC consists of Class A and Class B membership units.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Pzena Investment Management (PZN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 38.7
Price to Sales 5.7
Price to Book 22.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 10.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -7.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -100%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 10.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.8%
Return On Total Capital 69.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 53.7%
Return On Equity 69.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 53.7%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.9%
Operating Margin 43.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 48.5%
Pre-Tax Margin -0.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.3%
Net Profit Margin 14.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Effective Tax Rate 5500%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 1837.7%
Payout Ratio 37.5%

PZN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PZN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $141 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Pzena Investment Management. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Pzena Investment Management. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PZN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 30.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.6%, whose default value for PZN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Pzena Investment Management, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Pzena Investment Management.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PZN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 34%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $25 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PZN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Pzena Investment Management.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Pzena Investment Management. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PZN stock is equal to 7.5%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PZN are equal to 143.3%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Pzena Investment Management operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PZN is equal to -49.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $0 million for Pzena Investment Management - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 17 million for Pzena Investment Management is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Pzena Investment Management at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Pzena: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [Apr-19-18 04:38PM  Associated Press]
▶ Top Stocks To Invest In   [Mar-29-18 07:02AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ 9 Stocks Richard Pzena Continues to Buy   [Feb-21-18 03:34PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Pzena Investment Buys Hewlett Packard, Wells Fargo, Oracle   [Feb-12-18 12:58PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Pzena reports 4Q loss   [Feb-06-18 07:59PM  Associated Press]
▶ Is Pzena Investment Management Inc (NYSE:PZN) Undervalued?   [Feb-02-18 11:29AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Richard Pzena: Deep-Value Investing   [Jan-02-18 03:28PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Top Rated NYSE Financial Dividend Stocks   [Dec-14-17 12:02PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Pzena Investments Buys Mylan, Hewlett Packard, Wells Fargo   [Dec-05-17 12:01PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ November Top Stock Picks   [Nov-02-17 07:02AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Pzena posts 3Q profit   [Oct-17-17 04:23PM  Associated Press]
▶ Should You Buy Pzena Investment Management Inc (PZN)?   [Sep-28-17 05:25PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Pzena posts 2Q profit   [Jul-18-17 04:49PM  Associated Press]
▶ Pzena posts 1Q profit   [Apr-18-17 04:54PM  Associated Press]
▶ Pzena posts 4Q profit   [Feb-07-17 06:57PM  Associated Press]
▶ Is Pzena Investment Management, Inc. (PZN) A Good Stock to Buy?   [Dec-16-16 07:42PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Pzenas Biggest Q3 Moves: Hilton, Exxon, Seagate, More   [Dec-01-16 08:31AM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of PZN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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