Intrinsic value of Papa John's International - PZZA

Previous Close

$72.93

  Intrinsic Value

$31.77

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-56%

  Value-price divergence*

-19%

Previous close

$72.93

 
Intrinsic value

$31.77

 
Up/down potential

-56%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-19%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of PZZA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  4.70
  2.80
  3.02
  3.22
  3.40
  3.56
  3.70
  3.83
  3.95
  4.05
  4.15
  4.23
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.63
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.82
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
  4.88
  4.90
Revenue, $m
  1,714
  1,762
  1,815
  1,874
  1,937
  2,006
  2,080
  2,160
  2,245
  2,336
  2,433
  2,536
  2,646
  2,761
  2,884
  3,014
  3,151
  3,295
  3,448
  3,609
  3,779
  3,958
  4,146
  4,344
  4,553
  4,773
  5,004
  5,247
  5,503
  5,771
  6,054
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  800
  824
  850
  878
  909
  943
  978
  1,017
  1,058
  1,101
  1,139
  1,188
  1,240
  1,295
  1,353
  1,415
  1,480
  1,548
  1,620
  1,697
  1,777
  1,862
  1,951
  2,044
  2,143
  2,247
  2,356
  2,471
  2,591
  2,718
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  808
  828
  849
  870
  892
  914
  937
  960
  984
  1,009
  1,034
  1,060
  1,086
  1,113
  1,141
  1,170
  1,199
  1,229
  1,260
  1,291
  1,324
  1,357
  1,391
  1,425
  1,461
  1,497
  1,535
  1,573
  1,613
  1,653
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,548
  1,608
  1,652
  1,699
  1,748
  1,801
  1,857
  1,915
  1,977
  2,042
  2,110
  2,173
  2,248
  2,326
  2,408
  2,494
  2,585
  2,679
  2,777
  2,880
  2,988
  3,101
  3,219
  3,342
  3,469
  3,604
  3,744
  3,891
  4,044
  4,204
  4,371
Operating income, $m
  165
  155
  164
  175
  189
  205
  224
  245
  269
  295
  323
  364
  398
  435
  476
  519
  566
  617
  671
  729
  791
  857
  928
  1,003
  1,084
  1,169
  1,260
  1,356
  1,459
  1,568
  1,683
EBITDA, $m
  206
  194
  204
  217
  232
  249
  269
  292
  317
  344
  375
  408
  444
  484
  526
  572
  622
  675
  732
  792
  857
  927
  1,001
  1,080
  1,164
  1,253
  1,348
  1,449
  1,555
  1,669
  1,789
Interest expense (income), $m
  7
  11
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  45
Earnings before tax, $m
  159
  144
  155
  166
  179
  195
  213
  233
  256
  281
  309
  349
  382
  418
  458
  500
  546
  595
  648
  705
  765
  830
  899
  973
  1,051
  1,135
  1,224
  1,318
  1,418
  1,525
  1,638
Tax expense, $m
  50
  39
  42
  45
  48
  53
  57
  63
  69
  76
  84
  94
  103
  113
  124
  135
  147
  161
  175
  190
  207
  224
  243
  263
  284
  306
  330
  356
  383
  412
  442
Net income, $m
  103
  105
  113
  121
  131
  142
  155
  170
  187
  205
  226
  255
  279
  305
  334
  365
  399
  435
  473
  515
  559
  606
  656
  710
  767
  828
  893
  962
  1,035
  1,113
  1,195

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  16
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  513
  511
  526
  543
  562
  582
  603
  626
  651
  677
  706
  735
  767
  801
  836
  874
  914
  955
  1,000
  1,046
  1,096
  1,148
  1,202
  1,260
  1,320
  1,384
  1,451
  1,521
  1,595
  1,673
  1,755
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  497
  511
  526
  543
  562
  582
  603
  626
  651
  677
  706
  735
  767
  801
  836
  874
  914
  955
  1,000
  1,046
  1,096
  1,148
  1,202
  1,260
  1,320
  1,384
  1,451
  1,521
  1,595
  1,673
  1,755
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  3.449
  3.448
  3.451
  3.451
  3.447
  3.447
  3.449
  3.450
  3.449
  3.451
  3.446
  3.450
  3.450
  3.447
  3.450
  3.449
  3.447
  3.450
  3.448
  3.450
  3.448
  3.448
  3.449
  3.448
  3.449
  3.449
  3.449
  3.450
  3.450
  3.449
  3.450
Average production assets, $m
  222
  229
  236
  244
  252
  261
  270
  281
  292
  304
  316
  330
  344
  359
  375
  392
  410
  428
  448
  469
  491
  515
  539
  565
  592
  620
  651
  682
  715
  750
  787
Working capital, $m
  18
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
Total debt, $m
  308
  251
  265
  280
  297
  314
  334
  355
  377
  401
  426
  453
  481
  512
  544
  577
  613
  651
  691
  733
  777
  824
  873
  925
  979
  1,036
  1,097
  1,160
  1,227
  1,297
  1,371
Total liabilities, $m
  516
  460
  474
  489
  506
  523
  543
  564
  586
  610
  635
  662
  690
  721
  753
  786
  822
  860
  900
  942
  986
  1,033
  1,082
  1,134
  1,188
  1,245
  1,306
  1,369
  1,436
  1,506
  1,580
Total equity, $m
  -4
  51
  53
  54
  56
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  84
  87
  91
  96
  100
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  132
  138
  145
  152
  160
  167
  176
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  512
  511
  527
  543
  562
  581
  603
  627
  651
  678
  706
  736
  767
  801
  837
  873
  913
  956
  1,000
  1,047
  1,096
  1,148
  1,202
  1,260
  1,320
  1,383
  1,451
  1,521
  1,596
  1,673
  1,756
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -77.000
  4.910
  5.030
  5.150
  5.280
  5.410
  5.540
  5.660
  5.790
  5.910
  6.040
  6.160
  6.280
  6.390
  6.500
  6.610
  6.710
  6.810
  6.910
  7.000
  7.090
  7.180
  7.260
  7.340
  7.420
  7.490
  7.560
  7.630
  7.690
  7.750
  7.810
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.040
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  103
  105
  113
  121
  131
  142
  155
  170
  187
  205
  226
  255
  279
  305
  334
  365
  399
  435
  473
  515
  559
  606
  656
  710
  767
  828
  893
  962
  1,035
  1,113
  1,195
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  41
  40
  40
  42
  43
  44
  45
  47
  48
  50
  51
  45
  46
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  61
  63
  66
  70
  73
  76
  80
  84
  88
  92
  97
  101
  106
Funds from operations, $m
  123
  145
  154
  163
  173
  186
  201
  217
  235
  255
  277
  299
  325
  354
  385
  418
  454
  493
  534
  578
  625
  675
  729
  786
  847
  912
  981
  1,054
  1,132
  1,214
  1,302
Change in working capital, $m
  -21
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  144
  144
  154
  163
  173
  186
  200
  217
  235
  255
  277
  299
  325
  354
  385
  418
  454
  492
  534
  578
  625
  675
  729
  786
  847
  912
  981
  1,054
  1,132
  1,214
  1,302
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -101
New CAPEX, $m
  -56
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -46
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -103
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -125
  -132
  -138
Free cash flow, $m
  98
  107
  116
  123
  132
  143
  156
  170
  186
  204
  224
  243
  267
  292
  320
  351
  383
  418
  456
  496
  539
  586
  635
  688
  744
  803
  867
  935
  1,006
  1,083
  1,163
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  45
  -57
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -115
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -75
  -57
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  23
  50
  130
  138
  149
  161
  175
  191
  208
  228
  249
  270
  295
  323
  352
  384
  419
  456
  496
  538
  584
  632
  684
  739
  798
  861
  927
  998
  1,073
  1,153
  1,237
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  33
  -71
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  16
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -5
  128
  137
  147
  159
  173
  188
  206
  225
  246
  267
  292
  319
  349
  381
  415
  452
  491
  534
  579
  627
  679
  734
  792
  854
  921
  991
  1,066
  1,145
  1,229
Discount rate, %
 
  8.80
  9.24
  9.70
  10.19
  10.70
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.21
  20.17
  21.18
  22.24
  23.35
  24.52
  25.74
  27.03
  28.38
  29.80
  31.29
  32.85
  34.50
  36.22
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -4
  107
  104
  100
  96
  91
  86
  81
  75
  68
  61
  54
  47
  41
  34
  28
  23
  18
  14
  10
  8
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Papa John's International, Inc. (Papa John's) operates and franchises pizza delivery and carryout restaurants and, in certain international markets, dine-in and delivery restaurants under the trademark Papa John's. The Company operates through five segments: domestic Company-owned restaurants, North America commissaries, North America franchising, international operations and all other business units. North America is defined as the United States and Canada. Domestic is defined as the contiguous United States. International franchisees are defined as all franchise operations outside of the United States and Canada. As of December 25, 2016, there were 5,097 Papa John's restaurants in operation, consisting of 744 Company-owned and 4,353 franchised restaurants operating domestically in all 50 states and in 45 countries and territories. It offers pizza along with side items, including breadsticks, cheesesticks, chicken poppers and wings, dessert items and canned or bottled beverages.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Papa John's International (PZZA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 26
Price to Sales 1.6
Price to Book -668.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 18.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 30.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 43.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 1.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity -7700%
Total Debt to Equity -7700%
Interest Coverage 24
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 21.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.6%
Return On Total Capital 34.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.3%
Return On Equity 824%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 340.5%
Asset Turnover 3.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 20.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.6%
EBITDA Margin 12.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.7%
Operating Margin 9.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Net Profit Margin 6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.1%
Effective Tax Rate 31.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.4%
Payout Ratio 27.2%

PZZA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PZZA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1714 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Papa John's International. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Papa John's International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PZZA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.8%, whose default value for PZZA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Papa John's International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Papa John's International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PZZA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 45.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $788 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PZZA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Papa John's International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Papa John's International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PZZA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PZZA are equal to 13%.

Life of production assets of 7.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Papa John's International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PZZA is equal to 0.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-4 million for Papa John's International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 36.444 million for Papa John's International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Papa John's International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ Red Sox reportedly used Apple Watch to cheat   [Sep-06-17 01:19PM  Yahoo Finance Video]
▶ Atlanta NAACP plans major protest against the NFL   [01:14PM  Yahoo Finance Video]
▶ [$$] Better Pizza, Not-So-Hot Stock   [Sep-02-17 12:11AM  Barrons.com]
▶ NFL to launch six-second ads   [Aug-31-17 10:50AM  Yahoo Finance Video]
▶ Here's How Yum! Brands Plans to Fix Pizza Hut   [Aug-08-17 09:37AM  Motley Fool]
▶ What Drove Papa Johns Earnings in 2Q17   [10:36AM  Market Realist]
▶ How Papa Johns Is Expanding Its Business   [07:37AM  Market Realist]
▶ What Investors Missed in the Market This Week   [Aug-06-17 06:17AM  Motley Fool]
▶ A Look at Papa Johns Same-Store Sales Growth in 2Q17   [Aug-04-17 10:37AM  Market Realist]
▶ Wall Street Can't Stopping Eating Up Papa John's   [Aug-02-17 05:10PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Papa John's posts 2Q profit   [Aug-01-17 07:28PM  Associated Press]
▶ Papa Johns Announces 12.5% Increase in Quarterly Dividend   [Jul-27-17 04:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ What Are Analysts Recommending for Papa Johns?   [Jun-22-17 07:37AM  Market Realist]
▶ Papa Johns Valuation Multiple Compared to Its Peers   [Jun-21-17 03:35PM  Market Realist]
▶ Why Papa Johns Stock Is Struggling in 2017   [12:19PM  Market Realist]
▶ The exec behind #NuggsforCarter is now leading marketing at Papa John's   [Jun-01-17 09:58AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Why Analysts Favor a Hold for Papa Johns Stock   [May-10-17 09:06AM  Market Realist]
Financial statements of PZZA
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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