Intrinsic value of QAD Cl A - QADA

Previous Close

$37.20

  Intrinsic Value

$10.87

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-71%

Previous close

$37.20

 
Intrinsic value

$10.87

 
Up/down potential

-71%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of QADA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  0.00
  8.60
  8.24
  7.92
  7.62
  7.36
  7.13
  6.91
  6.72
  6.55
  6.39
  6.26
  6.13
  6.02
  5.92
  5.82
  5.74
  5.67
  5.60
  5.54
  5.49
  5.44
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
Revenue, $m
  278
  302
  327
  353
  380
  407
  437
  467
  498
  531
  565
  600
  637
  675
  715
  757
  800
  845
  893
  942
  994
  1,048
  1,104
  1,164
  1,225
  1,290
  1,358
  1,429
  1,504
  1,582
  1,663
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  291
  315
  340
  365
  392
  420
  449
  479
  511
  543
  576
  611
  648
  686
  726
  768
  812
  857
  905
  954
  1,006
  1,060
  1,117
  1,176
  1,239
  1,304
  1,372
  1,444
  1,518
  1,597
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  275
  291
  315
  340
  365
  392
  420
  449
  479
  511
  543
  576
  611
  648
  686
  726
  768
  812
  857
  905
  954
  1,006
  1,060
  1,117
  1,176
  1,239
  1,304
  1,372
  1,444
  1,518
  1,597
Operating income, $m
  3
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  21
  24
  25
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
EBITDA, $m
  9
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
  85
  89
  94
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  1
  -1
  -1
  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  5
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  16
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
Earnings before tax, $m
  4
  10
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  29
Tax expense, $m
  19
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
Net income, $m
  -15
  7
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  21

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  145
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  281
  148
  160
  173
  186
  199
  214
  228
  244
  260
  276
  294
  312
  330
  350
  370
  391
  414
  437
  461
  486
  513
  540
  569
  600
  631
  664
  699
  736
  774
  814
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  136
  148
  160
  173
  186
  199
  214
  228
  244
  260
  276
  294
  312
  330
  350
  370
  391
  414
  437
  461
  486
  513
  540
  569
  600
  631
  664
  699
  736
  774
  814
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.044
  2.041
  2.044
  2.040
  2.043
  2.045
  2.042
  2.048
  2.041
  2.042
  2.047
  2.041
  2.042
  2.045
  2.043
  2.046
  2.046
  2.041
  2.043
  2.043
  2.045
  2.043
  2.044
  2.046
  2.042
  2.044
  2.045
  2.044
  2.043
  2.044
  2.043
Average production assets, $m
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  53
  56
  60
  64
  68
  73
  77
  82
  87
  92
  97
  102
  108
  114
  120
  127
  134
  141
  148
  156
  164
  173
  182
  191
  201
Working capital, $m
  80
  -71
  -76
  -83
  -89
  -95
  -102
  -109
  -117
  -124
  -132
  -140
  -149
  -158
  -167
  -177
  -187
  -198
  -209
  -220
  -233
  -245
  -258
  -272
  -287
  -302
  -318
  -334
  -352
  -370
  -389
Total debt, $m
  14
  -21
  -10
  1
  13
  25
  38
  51
  65
  80
  95
  110
  126
  143
  161
  179
  198
  218
  239
  261
  284
  307
  332
  358
  386
  414
  444
  475
  508
  542
  578
Total liabilities, $m
  168
  133
  144
  155
  167
  179
  192
  205
  219
  234
  249
  264
  280
  297
  315
  333
  352
  372
  393
  415
  438
  461
  486
  512
  540
  568
  598
  629
  662
  696
  732
Total equity, $m
  113
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  74
  77
  81
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  281
  148
  160
  172
  186
  199
  213
  228
  243
  260
  277
  293
  311
  330
  350
  370
  391
  413
  437
  461
  487
  512
  540
  569
  600
  631
  664
  699
  736
  773
  813
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.124
  -1.430
  -0.630
  0.070
  0.710
  1.280
  1.790
  2.260
  2.680
  3.070
  3.430
  3.750
  4.060
  4.340
  4.600
  4.840
  5.070
  5.280
  5.470
  5.660
  5.830
  6.000
  6.150
  6.290
  6.430
  6.560
  6.680
  6.800
  6.910
  7.010
  7.110
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.235
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -15
  7
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  21
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
Funds from operations, $m
  25
  13
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  46
  48
Change in working capital, $m
  6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
Cash from operations, $m
  19
  19
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
New CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -3
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
Free cash flow, $m
  16
  11
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  -35
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  39
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -3
  4
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  12
  16
  25
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  40
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  15
  -47
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  145
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  114
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  109
  22
  21
  21
  20
  20
  19
  18
  17
  16
  15
  14
  13
  12
  10
  9
  8
  7
  6
  5
  5
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
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QAD Inc. (QAD) is a provider of vertically oriented enterprise software solutions for global manufacturing companies across the automotive, life sciences, consumer products, food and beverage, high technology and industrial products industries. QAD Enterprise Applications enables measurement and control of business processes and supports operational requirements, including financials, manufacturing, demand and supply chain planning, customer management, business intelligence and business process management. QAD delivers components of its solution for a range of mobile platforms. The Company's mobile suite includes a requisition approval solution, a mobile business intelligence solution, mobile browse capability and mobile application monitoring tools to support system administrators. Its mobile browse capability allows users to view, filter and sort data accessible through QAD Browses within QAD Enterprise Applications using mobile devices.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  QAD Cl A (QADA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -47.2
Price to Sales 2.5
Price to Book 6.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 37.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 44.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -9.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 12.4%
Total Debt to Equity 12.4%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -6.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.7%
Return On Total Capital -11.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.8%
Return On Equity -12.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 52.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 54.1%
EBITDA Margin 4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.1%
Operating Margin 1.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 1.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Net Profit Margin -5.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.7%
Effective Tax Rate 475%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 170.6%
Payout Ratio -33.3%

QADA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the QADA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $278 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by QAD Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of QAD Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our QADA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 8.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for QADA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of QAD Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of QAD Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of QADA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 96.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for QADA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.9% for QAD Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for QAD Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the QADA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for QADA are equal to 12.1%.

Life of production assets of 7.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in QAD Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for QADA is equal to -23.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $113 million for QAD Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 18.603 million for QAD Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of QAD Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ JJA Selects DynaSys DSCP Ready To Plan   [08:05AM  PR Newswire]
▶ PROCEPT BioRobotics Selects QAD Cloud ERP   [Oct-04-17 08:05AM  PR Newswire]
▶ RFPIO to Support QAD's Global RFP Management Efforts   [Sep-26-17 07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Opening Bell, September 18, 2107   [Sep-18-17 09:29AM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Today's Bell Ringer, September 18, 2017   [09:15AM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Sinbad Foods Goes Live with QAD Cloud ERP   [Aug-30-17 08:05AM  PR Newswire]
▶ QAD Inc. reports 2Q loss   [Aug-24-17 09:52PM  Associated Press]
▶ QAD reports 2Q loss   [09:51PM  Associated Press]
▶ QAD, Inc. Value Analysis (NASDAQ:QADA) : August 21, 2017   [Aug-21-17 07:07PM  Capital Cube]
▶ DynaSys Announces the Release of DSCP 2017   [Aug-01-17 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ QAD Announces the Release of QAD TMS 2017   [Jul-19-17 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ QAD Announces the Release of QAD DSCP 2017   [Jul-13-17 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ QAD Inc. reports 1Q loss   [May-25-17 04:45PM  Associated Press]
▶ QAD reports 1Q loss   [04:42PM  Associated Press]
▶ QAD Awards Partner Excellence at Explore 2017   [May-11-17 08:54AM  Business Wire]
▶ QAD Announces Customer Award Winners at QAD Explore 2017   [May-10-17 09:09AM  Business Wire]
▶ QAD Inc. reports 4Q loss   [Mar-09-17 05:31PM  Associated Press]
▶ QAD reports 4Q loss   [05:19PM  Associated Press]
▶ QAD Automation Solutions is Honda Approved   [Feb-07-17 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ QAD Named 2017 Global Excellence Awards® Finalist   [Feb-01-17 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Registration Opens for QAD Explore 2017 Customer Conference   [Jan-19-17 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Amtico International Goes Live With QAD Cloud ERP   [Jan-11-17 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ QAD Shortlisted for 2016-17 Cloud Awards Program   [Jan-10-17 03:45PM  Business Wire]
▶ Should You Buy QAD Inc. (QADA)?   [Dec-12-16 12:27PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ QAD Adds Four Partners to the QAD Global Partner Network   [Dec-06-16 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ QAD Blog Named Best Vendor Blog by ERP Focus   [Dec-01-16 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ QAD Inc. posts 3Q profit   [04:32PM  AP]
▶ QAD Expands Channel Islands and Enhances Solutions   [Oct-05-16 08:00AM  Business Wire]
Financial statements of QADA
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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