Intrinsic value of QAD Cl A - QADA

Previous Close

$31.10

  Intrinsic Value

$11.89

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-62%

  Value-price divergence*

-22%

Previous close

$31.10

 
Intrinsic value

$11.89

 
Up/down potential

-62%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-22%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of QADA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  0.00
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.43
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.15
  5.13
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
  5.04
  5.04
Revenue, $m
  278
  294
  311
  329
  347
  366
  386
  407
  429
  452
  476
  501
  527
  555
  584
  614
  646
  679
  714
  750
  789
  829
  871
  915
  962
  1,010
  1,061
  1,115
  1,171
  1,230
  1,292
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  283
  300
  316
  334
  352
  372
  392
  413
  435
  458
  481
  506
  533
  560
  589
  620
  652
  685
  720
  757
  796
  836
  879
  923
  970
  1,019
  1,070
  1,124
  1,181
  1,241
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  275
  283
  300
  316
  334
  352
  372
  392
  413
  435
  458
  481
  506
  533
  560
  589
  620
  652
  685
  720
  757
  796
  836
  879
  923
  970
  1,019
  1,070
  1,124
  1,181
  1,241
Operating income, $m
  3
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  49
  52
EBITDA, $m
  9
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  37
Earnings before tax, $m
  4
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
  11
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  15
Tax expense, $m
  19
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
Net income, $m
  -15
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  145
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  281
  181
  192
  203
  214
  226
  238
  251
  265
  279
  294
  309
  325
  342
  360
  379
  398
  419
  440
  463
  486
  511
  537
  565
  593
  623
  655
  688
  723
  759
  797
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  136
  181
  192
  203
  214
  226
  238
  251
  265
  279
  294
  309
  325
  342
  360
  379
  398
  419
  440
  463
  486
  511
  537
  565
  593
  623
  655
  688
  723
  759
  797
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.044
  1.624
  1.620
  1.621
  1.621
  1.619
  1.622
  1.622
  1.619
  1.620
  1.619
  1.621
  1.622
  1.623
  1.622
  1.620
  1.623
  1.621
  1.623
  1.620
  1.623
  1.622
  1.622
  1.619
  1.622
  1.621
  1.620
  1.621
  1.620
  1.621
  1.621
Average production assets, $m
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
  74
  78
  82
  86
  91
  95
  100
  105
  111
  116
  122
  128
  135
  142
  149
  156
Working capital, $m
  80
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -129
Total debt, $m
  14
  9
  19
  28
  39
  49
  60
  72
  84
  97
  110
  124
  139
  154
  170
  187
  204
  223
  242
  263
  284
  306
  330
  354
  380
  407
  435
  465
  496
  529
  563
Total liabilities, $m
  168
  163
  173
  182
  193
  203
  214
  226
  238
  251
  264
  278
  293
  308
  324
  341
  358
  377
  396
  417
  438
  460
  484
  508
  534
  561
  589
  619
  650
  683
  717
Total equity, $m
  113
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  80
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  281
  181
  192
  202
  214
  226
  238
  251
  264
  279
  293
  309
  326
  342
  360
  379
  398
  419
  440
  463
  487
  511
  538
  564
  593
  623
  654
  688
  722
  759
  797
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.124
  0.510
  0.970
  1.400
  1.800
  2.180
  2.530
  2.870
  3.180
  3.470
  3.750
  4.020
  4.270
  4.500
  4.720
  4.930
  5.130
  5.320
  5.500
  5.670
  5.830
  5.990
  6.130
  6.270
  6.400
  6.530
  6.650
  6.760
  6.870
  6.970
  7.070
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.235
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -15
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  6
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
Funds from operations, $m
  25
  12
  13
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
Change in working capital, $m
  6
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
Cash from operations, $m
  19
  13
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
New CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -3
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
Free cash flow, $m
  16
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  -5
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -3
  3
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  12
  11
  18
  19
  19
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  15
  -15
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  110
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  106
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  101
  16
  15
  15
  14
  14
  13
  12
  12
  11
  10
  9
  9
  8
  7
  6
  6
  5
  4
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  69.3
  69.3
  69.3
  69.3
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QAD Inc. provides enterprise software solutions for manufacturing companies in the automotive, life sciences, consumer products, food and beverage, high technology, and industrial products industries worldwide. The company offers QAD Enterprise Applications, an integrated suite of software applications, which supports the business processes. Its QAD Enterprise Applications include suites, such as QAD Financials that provides capabilities to manage and control finance and accounting processes; QAD Customer Management for manufacturers to acquire new customers; QAD Manufacturing, which supports manufacturing business processes; QAD Demand and Supply Chain Planning that fulfills materials planning and logistics requirements; QAD Supply Chain Execution that offers tools to support inventory and warehouse management; and QAD Transportation Management to manage and optimize outside carriers for shipments. The company’s QAD Enterprise Applications also comprises suites consisting of QAD Service and Support that handles service calls, manages service queues, and organizes mobile field resources; QAD Enterprise Asset Management to manage, maintain, and install capital equipment; and QAD Analytics that provides data to measure performance. It also offers QAD Enterprise Quality Management that provides quality management and regulatory compliance solutions; QAD Interoperability, which integrates QAD Enterprise Applications with other non-QAD core business applications; and QAD Internationalization, which supports companies that manufacture and distribute their products worldwide. In addition, QAD Inc. provides maintenance, customer support, and professional services. The company markets its products through direct and indirect sales channels; and distributors and sales agents. QAD Inc. was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Santa Barbara, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  QAD Cl A (QADA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -39.4
Price to Sales 2.1
Price to Book 5.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 31.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 37
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -9.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 12.4%
Total Debt to Equity 12.4%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -6.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.7%
Return On Total Capital -11.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.8%
Return On Equity -12.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 52.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 54.1%
EBITDA Margin 4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.1%
Operating Margin 1.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 1.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Net Profit Margin -5.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.7%
Effective Tax Rate 475%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 170.6%
Payout Ratio -33.3%

QADA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the QADA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $278 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by QAD Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of QAD Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our QADA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 5.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for QADA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of QAD Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of QAD Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of QADA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 96.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for QADA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.9% for QAD Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for QAD Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the QADA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for QADA are equal to 12.1%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in QAD Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for QADA is equal to -10%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $113 million for QAD Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 17.744 million for QAD Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of QAD Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ DynaSys Announces the Release of DSCP 2017   [Aug-01-17 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ QAD Announces the Release of QAD TMS 2017   [Jul-19-17 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ QAD Announces the Release of QAD DSCP 2017   [Jul-13-17 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ QAD Inc. reports 1Q loss   [May-25-17 04:45PM  Associated Press]
▶ QAD reports 1Q loss   [04:42PM  Associated Press]
▶ QAD Awards Partner Excellence at Explore 2017   [May-11-17 08:54AM  Business Wire]
▶ QAD Announces Customer Award Winners at QAD Explore 2017   [May-10-17 09:09AM  Business Wire]
▶ QAD Inc. reports 4Q loss   [Mar-09-17 05:31PM  Associated Press]
▶ QAD reports 4Q loss   [05:19PM  Associated Press]
▶ QAD Automation Solutions is Honda Approved   [Feb-07-17 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ QAD Named 2017 Global Excellence Awards® Finalist   [Feb-01-17 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Registration Opens for QAD Explore 2017 Customer Conference   [Jan-19-17 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Amtico International Goes Live With QAD Cloud ERP   [Jan-11-17 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ QAD Shortlisted for 2016-17 Cloud Awards Program   [Jan-10-17 03:45PM  Business Wire]
▶ Should You Buy QAD Inc. (QADA)?   [Dec-12-16 12:27PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ QAD Adds Four Partners to the QAD Global Partner Network   [Dec-06-16 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ QAD Blog Named Best Vendor Blog by ERP Focus   [Dec-01-16 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ QAD Inc. posts 3Q profit   [04:32PM  AP]
▶ QAD Expands Channel Islands and Enhances Solutions   [Oct-05-16 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ QAD Inc. posts 2Q profit   [04:25PM  AP]
▶ QAD posts 2Q profit   [04:21PM  AP]
▶ Snell Advanced Media Consolidates ERP with QAD   [Jul-12-16 08:00AM  Business Wire]
Stock chart of QADA Financial statements of QADA
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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