Intrinsic value of QEP Resources - QEP

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$9.11

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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$9.11

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of QEP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -31.80
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
  4.88
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.92
  4.93
  4.94
  4.94
  4.95
  4.95
  4.96
  4.96
  4.97
  4.97
  4.97
  4.98
  4.98
  4.98
  4.98
  4.98
  4.99
Revenue, $m
  1,377
  1,442
  1,510
  1,582
  1,657
  1,737
  1,821
  1,909
  2,002
  2,099
  2,202
  2,309
  2,423
  2,542
  2,667
  2,798
  2,937
  3,082
  3,234
  3,395
  3,563
  3,740
  3,926
  4,121
  4,326
  4,541
  4,767
  5,004
  5,254
  5,516
  5,791
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,711
  1,792
  1,878
  1,967
  2,062
  2,161
  2,266
  2,376
  2,492
  2,613
  2,741
  2,876
  3,017
  3,166
  3,322
  3,486
  3,658
  3,839
  4,029
  4,229
  4,439
  4,660
  4,891
  5,135
  5,390
  5,658
  5,940
  6,236
  6,547
  6,873
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,980
  1,711
  1,792
  1,878
  1,967
  2,062
  2,161
  2,266
  2,376
  2,492
  2,613
  2,741
  2,876
  3,017
  3,166
  3,322
  3,486
  3,658
  3,839
  4,029
  4,229
  4,439
  4,660
  4,891
  5,135
  5,390
  5,658
  5,940
  6,236
  6,547
  6,873
Operating income, $m
  -1,603
  -270
  -282
  -296
  -310
  -325
  -340
  -357
  -374
  -393
  -412
  -432
  -453
  -475
  -499
  -523
  -549
  -576
  -605
  -635
  -666
  -699
  -734
  -771
  -809
  -849
  -891
  -936
  -982
  -1,031
  -1,083
EBITDA, $m
  -732
  -270
  -282
  -296
  -310
  -325
  -340
  -357
  -374
  -393
  -412
  -432
  -453
  -475
  -499
  -523
  -549
  -576
  -605
  -635
  -666
  -699
  -734
  -771
  -809
  -849
  -891
  -936
  -982
  -1,031
  -1,083
Interest expense (income), $m
  139
  131
  143
  155
  168
  181
  195
  210
  226
  242
  259
  277
  296
  316
  337
  359
  382
  407
  432
  459
  488
  517
  548
  581
  616
  652
  690
  730
  771
  815
  862
Earnings before tax, $m
  -1,953
  -401
  -425
  -451
  -478
  -506
  -536
  -567
  -600
  -634
  -671
  -709
  -749
  -791
  -836
  -882
  -932
  -983
  -1,037
  -1,094
  -1,154
  -1,217
  -1,282
  -1,352
  -1,424
  -1,501
  -1,581
  -1,665
  -1,754
  -1,847
  -1,944
Tax expense, $m
  -708
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -1,245
  -401
  -425
  -451
  -478
  -506
  -536
  -567
  -600
  -634
  -671
  -709
  -749
  -791
  -836
  -882
  -932
  -983
  -1,037
  -1,094
  -1,154
  -1,217
  -1,282
  -1,352
  -1,424
  -1,501
  -1,581
  -1,665
  -1,754
  -1,847
  -1,944

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  444
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  7,245
  7,137
  7,475
  7,830
  8,205
  8,599
  9,014
  9,450
  9,909
  10,391
  10,899
  11,433
  11,993
  12,583
  13,202
  13,853
  14,538
  15,256
  16,012
  16,805
  17,638
  18,514
  19,434
  20,399
  21,414
  22,480
  23,599
  24,774
  26,008
  27,305
  28,666
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  6,801
  7,137
  7,475
  7,830
  8,205
  8,599
  9,014
  9,450
  9,909
  10,391
  10,899
  11,433
  11,993
  12,583
  13,202
  13,853
  14,538
  15,256
  16,012
  16,805
  17,638
  18,514
  19,434
  20,399
  21,414
  22,480
  23,599
  24,774
  26,008
  27,305
  28,666
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
Average production assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  125
  -322
  -337
  -353
  -370
  -387
  -406
  -426
  -446
  -468
  -491
  -515
  -540
  -567
  -595
  -624
  -655
  -687
  -721
  -757
  -795
  -834
  -875
  -919
  -965
  -1,013
  -1,063
  -1,116
  -1,172
  -1,230
  -1,291
Total debt, $m
  2,033
  2,202
  2,387
  2,582
  2,787
  3,003
  3,230
  3,470
  3,721
  3,986
  4,264
  4,556
  4,863
  5,186
  5,526
  5,883
  6,258
  6,652
  7,065
  7,500
  7,957
  8,437
  8,941
  9,470
  10,026
  10,610
  11,223
  11,867
  12,544
  13,254
  14,000
Total liabilities, $m
  3,743
  3,911
  4,096
  4,291
  4,496
  4,712
  4,939
  5,179
  5,430
  5,695
  5,973
  6,265
  6,572
  6,895
  7,235
  7,592
  7,967
  8,361
  8,774
  9,209
  9,666
  10,146
  10,650
  11,179
  11,735
  12,319
  12,932
  13,576
  14,253
  14,963
  15,709
Total equity, $m
  3,503
  3,226
  3,379
  3,539
  3,709
  3,887
  4,074
  4,271
  4,479
  4,697
  4,926
  5,167
  5,421
  5,687
  5,968
  6,262
  6,571
  6,896
  7,237
  7,596
  7,973
  8,368
  8,784
  9,221
  9,679
  10,161
  10,667
  11,198
  11,756
  12,342
  12,957
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  7,246
  7,137
  7,475
  7,830
  8,205
  8,599
  9,013
  9,450
  9,909
  10,392
  10,899
  11,432
  11,993
  12,582
  13,203
  13,854
  14,538
  15,257
  16,011
  16,805
  17,639
  18,514
  19,434
  20,400
  21,414
  22,480
  23,599
  24,774
  26,009
  27,305
  28,666
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.580
  0.680
  0.710
  0.730
  0.750
  0.770
  0.790
  0.810
  0.830
  0.850
  0.870
  0.880
  0.900
  0.910
  0.930
  0.940
  0.950
  0.960
  0.980
  0.990
  1.000
  1.010
  1.020
  1.030
  1.040
  1.040
  1.050
  1.060
  1.070
  1.070
  1.080
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -1,245
  -401
  -425
  -451
  -478
  -506
  -536
  -567
  -600
  -634
  -671
  -709
  -749
  -791
  -836
  -882
  -932
  -983
  -1,037
  -1,094
  -1,154
  -1,217
  -1,282
  -1,352
  -1,424
  -1,501
  -1,581
  -1,665
  -1,754
  -1,847
  -1,944
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  871
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  779
  -401
  -425
  -451
  -478
  -506
  -536
  -567
  -600
  -634
  -671
  -709
  -749
  -791
  -836
  -882
  -932
  -983
  -1,037
  -1,094
  -1,154
  -1,217
  -1,282
  -1,352
  -1,424
  -1,501
  -1,581
  -1,665
  -1,754
  -1,847
  -1,944
Change in working capital, $m
  115
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
Cash from operations, $m
  664
  -387
  -410
  -435
  -461
  -488
  -517
  -547
  -579
  -613
  -648
  -685
  -724
  -765
  -808
  -853
  -901
  -951
  -1,003
  -1,058
  -1,116
  -1,177
  -1,241
  -1,308
  -1,379
  -1,453
  -1,531
  -1,612
  -1,698
  -1,788
  -1,883
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  -1,208
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1,179
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  -515
  -387
  -410
  -435
  -461
  -488
  -517
  -547
  -579
  -613
  -648
  -685
  -724
  -765
  -808
  -853
  -901
  -951
  -1,003
  -1,058
  -1,116
  -1,177
  -1,241
  -1,308
  -1,379
  -1,453
  -1,531
  -1,612
  -1,698
  -1,788
  -1,883
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -194
  181
  185
  195
  205
  216
  227
  239
  251
  264
  278
  292
  307
  323
  340
  357
  375
  394
  414
  435
  457
  480
  504
  529
  556
  584
  613
  644
  676
  710
  746
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  777
  0
  378
  401
  425
  450
  477
  505
  535
  566
  599
  634
  670
  708
  748
  791
  835
  882
  931
  982
  1,036
  1,093
  1,153
  1,215
  1,281
  1,351
  1,423
  1,500
  1,580
  1,664
  1,752
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  583
  181
  563
  596
  630
  666
  704
  744
  786
  830
  877
  926
  977
  1,031
  1,088
  1,148
  1,210
  1,276
  1,345
  1,417
  1,493
  1,573
  1,657
  1,744
  1,837
  1,935
  2,036
  2,144
  2,256
  2,374
  2,498
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  68
  -205
  -225
  -240
  -256
  -272
  -290
  -308
  -328
  -348
  -370
  -393
  -417
  -442
  -468
  -496
  -526
  -557
  -589
  -624
  -660
  -697
  -737
  -779
  -823
  -869
  -917
  -968
  -1,022
  -1,078
  -1,137
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  445
  -155
  -153
  -161
  -169
  -178
  -187
  -197
  -207
  -218
  -229
  -241
  -254
  -266
  -280
  -294
  -309
  -325
  -341
  -359
  -377
  -396
  -416
  -437
  -459
  -482
  -506
  -531
  -558
  -586
  -615
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  432
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  72
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  5.60
  5.88
  6.17
  6.48
  6.81
  7.15
  7.50
  7.88
  8.27
  8.69
  9.12
  9.58
  10.06
  10.56
  11.09
  11.64
  12.22
  12.84
  13.48
  14.15
  14.86
  15.60
  16.38
  17.20
  18.06
  18.96
  19.91
  20.91
  21.95
  23.05
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  68
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  85.7
  73.3
  62.5
  53.3
  45.3
  38.5
  32.7
  27.7
  23.4
  19.8
  16.7
  14.1
  11.8
  9.9
  8.4
  7.0
  5.9
  4.9
  4.1
  3.4
  2.9
  2.4
  2.0
  1.7
  1.4
  1.2
  1.0
  0.8
  0.7

QEP Resources, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a natural gas and crude oil exploration and production company in the United States. The company conducts exploration and production activities in the Williston Basin in North Dakota, Permian Basin in western Texas; Pinedale Anticline in western Wyoming; Uinta Basin in eastern Utah; Haynesville/Cotton Valley in northwestern Louisiana; and other proven properties in Wyoming, Utah, and Colorado. As of December 31, 2016, it had estimated proved reserves of 731.4 MMboe. The company sells its gas, oil, and natural gas liquids (NGL) to various customers, including wholesale marketers, industrial users, local distribution companies, utilities, and other companies. In addition, it operates an underground gas storage facility. QEP Resources, Inc. is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  QEP Resources (QEP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -1.8
Price to Sales 1.6
Price to Book 0.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 3.3
Price to Free Cash Flow -4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -31.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -2.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -5.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 37
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 57.7%
Total Debt to Equity 58%
Interest Coverage -13
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -14.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -2%
Return On Total Capital -21.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.8%
Return On Equity -33.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.4%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin -68.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.5%
Operating Margin -116.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -53.3%
Pre-Tax Margin -141.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -57.6%
Net Profit Margin -90.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -24.9%
Effective Tax Rate 36.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37%
Payout Ratio 0%

QEP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the QEP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1377 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by QEP Resources. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of QEP Resources. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our QEP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 4.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.6%, whose default value for QEP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of QEP Resources, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of QEP Resources.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of QEP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 118.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for QEP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.5% for QEP Resources.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for QEP Resources. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the QEP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for QEP are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of 0 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in QEP Resources operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for QEP is equal to -22.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3503 million for QEP Resources - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 236.16 million for QEP Resources is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of QEP Resources at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.2 billion.


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Stock chart of QEP Financial statements of QEP Annual reports of QEP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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