Intrinsic value of QEP Resources - QEP

Previous Close

$11.05

  Intrinsic Value

$3.54

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-68%

Previous close

$11.05

 
Intrinsic value

$3.54

 
Up/down potential

-68%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of QEP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -31.80
  2.10
  2.39
  2.65
  2.89
  3.10
  3.29
  3.46
  3.61
  3.75
  3.88
  3.99
  4.09
  4.18
  4.26
  4.34
  4.40
  4.46
  4.52
  4.56
  4.61
  4.65
  4.68
  4.71
  4.74
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,377
  1,406
  1,440
  1,478
  1,520
  1,567
  1,619
  1,675
  1,735
  1,801
  1,870
  1,945
  2,025
  2,109
  2,199
  2,294
  2,395
  2,502
  2,615
  2,735
  2,861
  2,994
  3,134
  3,282
  3,437
  3,601
  3,774
  3,955
  4,147
  4,348
  4,559
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,669
  1,709
  1,754
  1,805
  1,861
  1,922
  1,988
  2,060
  2,137
  2,220
  2,309
  2,403
  2,504
  2,610
  2,723
  2,843
  2,970
  3,104
  3,246
  3,396
  3,554
  3,720
  3,895
  4,080
  4,275
  4,479
  4,695
  4,922
  5,161
  5,412
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,980
  1,669
  1,709
  1,754
  1,805
  1,861
  1,922
  1,988
  2,060
  2,137
  2,220
  2,309
  2,403
  2,504
  2,610
  2,723
  2,843
  2,970
  3,104
  3,246
  3,396
  3,554
  3,720
  3,895
  4,080
  4,275
  4,479
  4,695
  4,922
  5,161
  5,412
Operating income, $m
  -1,603
  -263
  -269
  -276
  -284
  -293
  -303
  -313
  -325
  -337
  -350
  -364
  -379
  -394
  -411
  -429
  -448
  -468
  -489
  -511
  -535
  -560
  -586
  -614
  -643
  -673
  -706
  -740
  -775
  -813
  -853
EBITDA, $m
  -732
  -263
  -269
  -276
  -284
  -293
  -303
  -313
  -325
  -337
  -350
  -364
  -379
  -394
  -411
  -429
  -448
  -468
  -489
  -511
  -535
  -560
  -586
  -614
  -643
  -673
  -706
  -740
  -775
  -813
  -853
Interest expense (income), $m
  139
  131
  137
  143
  149
  157
  165
  174
  184
  195
  206
  219
  232
  246
  261
  277
  294
  311
  330
  350
  371
  393
  417
  442
  468
  495
  524
  554
  586
  620
  656
Earnings before tax, $m
  -1,953
  -394
  -406
  -419
  -434
  -450
  -468
  -488
  -509
  -532
  -556
  -582
  -610
  -640
  -672
  -706
  -741
  -779
  -819
  -862
  -906
  -953
  -1,003
  -1,055
  -1,110
  -1,168
  -1,230
  -1,294
  -1,362
  -1,433
  -1,508
Tax expense, $m
  -708
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -1,245
  -394
  -406
  -419
  -434
  -450
  -468
  -488
  -509
  -532
  -556
  -582
  -610
  -640
  -672
  -706
  -741
  -779
  -819
  -862
  -906
  -953
  -1,003
  -1,055
  -1,110
  -1,168
  -1,230
  -1,294
  -1,362
  -1,433
  -1,508

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  444
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  7,245
  6,960
  7,126
  7,315
  7,526
  7,759
  8,015
  8,292
  8,591
  8,914
  9,259
  9,629
  10,022
  10,441
  10,886
  11,359
  11,859
  12,388
  12,947
  13,538
  14,162
  14,820
  15,514
  16,246
  17,016
  17,828
  18,682
  19,581
  20,527
  21,522
  22,569
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  6,801
  6,960
  7,126
  7,315
  7,526
  7,759
  8,015
  8,292
  8,591
  8,914
  9,259
  9,629
  10,022
  10,441
  10,886
  11,359
  11,859
  12,388
  12,947
  13,538
  14,162
  14,820
  15,514
  16,246
  17,016
  17,828
  18,682
  19,581
  20,527
  21,522
  22,569
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
  0.202
Average production assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  125
  -314
  -321
  -330
  -339
  -350
  -361
  -374
  -387
  -402
  -417
  -434
  -451
  -470
  -490
  -512
  -534
  -558
  -583
  -610
  -638
  -668
  -699
  -732
  -767
  -803
  -842
  -882
  -925
  -970
  -1,017
Total debt, $m
  2,033
  2,105
  2,196
  2,300
  2,415
  2,543
  2,683
  2,835
  2,999
  3,176
  3,365
  3,567
  3,783
  4,013
  4,257
  4,516
  4,790
  5,080
  5,386
  5,710
  6,052
  6,413
  6,793
  7,194
  7,616
  8,061
  8,529
  9,022
  9,540
  10,085
  10,659
Total liabilities, $m
  3,743
  3,814
  3,905
  4,009
  4,124
  4,252
  4,392
  4,544
  4,708
  4,885
  5,074
  5,276
  5,492
  5,722
  5,966
  6,225
  6,499
  6,789
  7,095
  7,419
  7,761
  8,122
  8,502
  8,903
  9,325
  9,770
  10,238
  10,731
  11,249
  11,794
  12,368
Total equity, $m
  3,503
  3,146
  3,221
  3,306
  3,402
  3,507
  3,623
  3,748
  3,883
  4,029
  4,185
  4,352
  4,530
  4,720
  4,921
  5,134
  5,360
  5,599
  5,852
  6,119
  6,401
  6,699
  7,013
  7,343
  7,691
  8,058
  8,444
  8,851
  9,278
  9,728
  10,201
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  7,246
  6,960
  7,126
  7,315
  7,526
  7,759
  8,015
  8,292
  8,591
  8,914
  9,259
  9,628
  10,022
  10,442
  10,887
  11,359
  11,859
  12,388
  12,947
  13,538
  14,162
  14,821
  15,515
  16,246
  17,016
  17,828
  18,682
  19,582
  20,527
  21,522
  22,569
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.580
  0.670
  0.680
  0.700
  0.710
  0.730
  0.740
  0.760
  0.770
  0.790
  0.800
  0.820
  0.840
  0.850
  0.870
  0.880
  0.890
  0.910
  0.920
  0.930
  0.950
  0.960
  0.970
  0.980
  0.990
  1.000
  1.010
  1.020
  1.030
  1.040
  1.040
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -1,245
  -394
  -406
  -419
  -434
  -450
  -468
  -488
  -509
  -532
  -556
  -582
  -610
  -640
  -672
  -706
  -741
  -779
  -819
  -862
  -906
  -953
  -1,003
  -1,055
  -1,110
  -1,168
  -1,230
  -1,294
  -1,362
  -1,433
  -1,508
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  871
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  779
  -394
  -406
  -419
  -434
  -450
  -468
  -488
  -509
  -532
  -556
  -582
  -610
  -640
  -672
  -706
  -741
  -779
  -819
  -862
  -906
  -953
  -1,003
  -1,055
  -1,110
  -1,168
  -1,230
  -1,294
  -1,362
  -1,433
  -1,508
Change in working capital, $m
  115
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
Cash from operations, $m
  664
  -388
  -399
  -411
  -424
  -440
  -457
  -475
  -495
  -517
  -541
  -566
  -593
  -621
  -652
  -684
  -719
  -755
  -794
  -835
  -878
  -924
  -972
  -1,022
  -1,076
  -1,132
  -1,191
  -1,254
  -1,319
  -1,388
  -1,461
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  -1,208
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1,179
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  -515
  -388
  -399
  -411
  -424
  -440
  -457
  -475
  -495
  -517
  -541
  -566
  -593
  -621
  -652
  -684
  -719
  -755
  -794
  -835
  -878
  -924
  -972
  -1,022
  -1,076
  -1,132
  -1,191
  -1,254
  -1,319
  -1,388
  -1,461
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -194
  84
  91
  104
  116
  128
  140
  152
  164
  177
  189
  202
  216
  230
  244
  259
  274
  290
  307
  324
  342
  361
  380
  401
  422
  445
  468
  493
  518
  545
  574
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  777
  469
  481
  504
  529
  555
  583
  613
  644
  677
  712
  749
  788
  830
  873
  919
  968
  1,018
  1,072
  1,129
  1,188
  1,251
  1,317
  1,386
  1,459
  1,535
  1,616
  1,700
  1,789
  1,883
  1,981
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  583
  553
  572
  608
  645
  683
  723
  765
  808
  854
  901
  951
  1,004
  1,060
  1,117
  1,178
  1,242
  1,308
  1,379
  1,453
  1,530
  1,612
  1,697
  1,787
  1,881
  1,980
  2,084
  2,193
  2,307
  2,428
  2,555
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  68
  165
  174
  197
  221
  244
  267
  290
  313
  337
  361
  386
  412
  438
  465
  493
  523
  553
  585
  618
  652
  688
  725
  764
  805
  848
  893
  940
  989
  1,040
  1,094
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  445
  -469
  -481
  -504
  -529
  -555
  -583
  -613
  -644
  -677
  -712
  -749
  -788
  -830
  -873
  -919
  -968
  -1,018
  -1,072
  -1,129
  -1,188
  -1,251
  -1,317
  -1,386
  -1,459
  -1,535
  -1,616
  -1,700
  -1,789
  -1,883
  -1,981
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  432
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  128
  -307
  -307
  -309
  -312
  -317
  -323
  -331
  -340
  -351
  -363
  -377
  -392
  -408
  -426
  -445
  -465
  -487
  -511
  -536
  -563
  -591
  -621
  -653
  -687
  -723
  -761
  -801
  -843
  -887
Discount rate, %
 
  5.60
  5.88
  6.17
  6.48
  6.81
  7.15
  7.50
  7.88
  8.27
  8.69
  9.12
  9.58
  10.06
  10.56
  11.09
  11.64
  12.22
  12.84
  13.48
  14.15
  14.86
  15.60
  16.38
  17.20
  18.06
  18.96
  19.91
  20.91
  21.95
  23.05
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  121
  -274
  -257
  -240
  -224
  -209
  -195
  -181
  -166
  -153
  -139
  -126
  -113
  -100
  -88
  -76
  -66
  -55
  -46
  -38
  -31
  -24
  -19
  -14
  -11
  -8
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  83.6
  69.9
  58.3
  48.4
  40.0
  33.0
  27.1
  22.2
  18.2
  14.8
  12.0
  9.8
  7.9
  6.4
  5.2
  4.2
  3.3
  2.7
  2.2
  1.7
  1.4
  1.1
  0.9
  0.7
  0.6
  0.4
  0.4
  0.3
  0.2
  0.2

QEP Resources, Inc. is an independent crude oil and natural gas exploration and production company. The Company focuses on two regions of the United States: the Northern Region (primarily in North Dakota, Wyoming and Utah) and the Southern Region (primarily in Texas and Louisiana). The Company conducts exploration and production activities in North America's hydrocarbon resource plays. The Company has an inventory of developed and undeveloped drilling locations in the Permian Basin in western Texas, the Williston Basin in North Dakota, Haynesville/Cotton Valley in northwestern Louisiana, the Uinta Basin in eastern Utah and other properties in Wyoming, Utah and Colorado. It sells gas volumes to wholesale marketers, industrial users, local distribution companies and utilities. It sells oil and natural gas liquid (NGL) volumes to refiners, marketers and other companies.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  QEP Resources (QEP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -2.1
Price to Sales 1.9
Price to Book 0.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 4
Price to Free Cash Flow -4.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -31.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -2.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -5.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 37
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 57.7%
Total Debt to Equity 58%
Interest Coverage -13
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -14.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -2%
Return On Total Capital -21.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.8%
Return On Equity -33.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.4%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin -68.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.5%
Operating Margin -116.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -53.3%
Pre-Tax Margin -141.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -57.6%
Net Profit Margin -90.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -24.9%
Effective Tax Rate 36.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37%
Payout Ratio 0%

QEP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the QEP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1377 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by QEP Resources. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of QEP Resources. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our QEP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.6%, whose default value for QEP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of QEP Resources, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of QEP Resources.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of QEP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 118.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for QEP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.5% for QEP Resources.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for QEP Resources. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the QEP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for QEP are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of 0 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in QEP Resources operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for QEP is equal to -22.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3503 million for QEP Resources - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 247.649 million for QEP Resources is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of QEP Resources at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.7 billion.

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Financial statements of QEP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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