Intrinsic value of Qualys - QLYS

Previous Close

$40.85

  Intrinsic Value

$32.20

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-21%

  Value-price divergence*

-10%

Previous close

$40.85

 
Intrinsic value

$32.20

 
Up/down potential

-21%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-10%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of QLYS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  20.73
  15.20
  14.18
  13.26
  12.44
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.88
  9.39
  8.95
  8.56
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
  7.33
  7.10
  6.89
  6.70
  6.53
  6.38
  6.24
  6.12
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
Revenue, $m
  198
  228
  260
  295
  332
  370
  411
  454
  499
  546
  595
  646
  699
  754
  811
  870
  932
  996
  1,063
  1,132
  1,205
  1,280
  1,358
  1,440
  1,525
  1,613
  1,706
  1,802
  1,903
  2,008
  2,119
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  193
  221
  250
  281
  314
  349
  385
  423
  463
  504
  547
  592
  639
  688
  738
  790
  845
  901
  960
  1,022
  1,085
  1,152
  1,221
  1,293
  1,368
  1,447
  1,528
  1,614
  1,703
  1,797
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  168
  193
  221
  250
  281
  314
  349
  385
  423
  463
  504
  547
  592
  639
  688
  738
  790
  845
  901
  960
  1,022
  1,085
  1,152
  1,221
  1,293
  1,368
  1,447
  1,528
  1,614
  1,703
  1,797
Operating income, $m
  30
  35
  40
  45
  50
  56
  63
  69
  76
  83
  90
  98
  106
  115
  123
  132
  142
  151
  162
  172
  183
  195
  206
  219
  232
  245
  259
  274
  289
  305
  322
EBITDA, $m
  47
  39
  44
  50
  56
  63
  70
  77
  85
  93
  101
  110
  119
  128
  138
  148
  159
  170
  181
  193
  205
  218
  231
  245
  260
  275
  290
  307
  324
  342
  361
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  7
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
Earnings before tax, $m
  30
  35
  39
  43
  48
  53
  58
  64
  69
  75
  81
  88
  95
  102
  109
  116
  124
  132
  141
  150
  159
  169
  178
  189
  200
  211
  223
  235
  248
  261
  275
Tax expense, $m
  11
  9
  10
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  34
  36
  38
  40
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  71
  74
Net income, $m
  19
  25
  28
  32
  35
  39
  42
  46
  51
  55
  59
  64
  69
  74
  80
  85
  91
  97
  103
  109
  116
  123
  130
  138
  146
  154
  163
  172
  181
  191
  201

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  244
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  407
  188
  214
  243
  273
  305
  338
  374
  411
  449
  489
  531
  575
  620
  667
  716
  767
  820
  875
  932
  992
  1,053
  1,118
  1,185
  1,255
  1,328
  1,404
  1,483
  1,566
  1,653
  1,744
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  163
  188
  214
  243
  273
  305
  338
  374
  411
  449
  489
  531
  575
  620
  667
  716
  767
  820
  875
  932
  992
  1,053
  1,118
  1,185
  1,255
  1,328
  1,404
  1,483
  1,566
  1,653
  1,744
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.215
  1.213
  1.215
  1.214
  1.216
  1.213
  1.216
  1.214
  1.214
  1.216
  1.217
  1.217
  1.216
  1.216
  1.216
  1.215
  1.215
  1.215
  1.215
  1.215
  1.215
  1.216
  1.215
  1.215
  1.215
  1.215
  1.215
  1.215
  1.215
  1.215
  1.215
Average production assets, $m
  36
  42
  47
  54
  60
  67
  75
  83
  91
  99
  108
  118
  127
  137
  148
  158
  170
  181
  193
  206
  219
  233
  247
  262
  277
  294
  310
  328
  346
  366
  386
Working capital, $m
  171
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -33
  -37
  -41
  -45
  -50
  -55
  -59
  -65
  -70
  -75
  -81
  -87
  -93
  -100
  -106
  -113
  -120
  -128
  -136
  -144
  -152
  -161
  -171
  -180
  -190
  -201
  -212
Total debt, $m
  0
  20
  44
  70
  97
  125
  156
  187
  221
  255
  292
  329
  368
  409
  452
  496
  541
  589
  638
  690
  743
  799
  857
  917
  980
  1,046
  1,115
  1,186
  1,261
  1,339
  1,420
Total liabilities, $m
  149
  169
  193
  219
  246
  274
  305
  336
  370
  404
  441
  478
  517
  558
  601
  645
  690
  738
  787
  839
  892
  948
  1,006
  1,066
  1,129
  1,195
  1,264
  1,335
  1,410
  1,488
  1,569
Total equity, $m
  258
  19
  21
  24
  27
  30
  34
  37
  41
  45
  49
  53
  57
  62
  67
  72
  77
  82
  87
  93
  99
  105
  112
  118
  125
  133
  140
  148
  157
  165
  174
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  407
  188
  214
  243
  273
  304
  339
  373
  411
  449
  490
  531
  574
  620
  668
  717
  767
  820
  874
  932
  991
  1,053
  1,118
  1,184
  1,254
  1,328
  1,404
  1,483
  1,567
  1,653
  1,743
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  1.060
  2.050
  2.860
  3.540
  4.110
  4.600
  5.010
  5.370
  5.680
  5.960
  6.200
  6.410
  6.600
  6.770
  6.920
  7.060
  7.180
  7.300
  7.400
  7.500
  7.590
  7.670
  7.740
  7.810
  7.880
  7.940
  8.000
  8.050
  8.100
  8.150
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.086
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  19
  25
  28
  32
  35
  39
  42
  46
  51
  55
  59
  64
  69
  74
  80
  85
  91
  97
  103
  109
  116
  123
  130
  138
  146
  154
  163
  172
  181
  191
  201
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  17
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
Funds from operations, $m
  88
  29
  33
  37
  41
  45
  50
  55
  60
  65
  70
  76
  82
  88
  94
  101
  108
  115
  122
  130
  138
  146
  155
  164
  173
  183
  194
  204
  216
  227
  239
Change in working capital, $m
  20
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
Cash from operations, $m
  68
  32
  36
  40
  45
  49
  54
  59
  64
  70
  75
  81
  87
  93
  100
  107
  114
  121
  129
  137
  145
  154
  163
  172
  182
  192
  203
  214
  226
  238
  250
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
New CAPEX, $m
  -23
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -96
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -40
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
Free cash flow, $m
  -28
  23
  26
  29
  33
  36
  40
  44
  48
  52
  56
  61
  66
  71
  76
  81
  87
  93
  99
  105
  111
  118
  125
  133
  140
  148
  157
  165
  174
  184
  194
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  20
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  49
  51
  54
  56
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  15
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  23
  20
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  49
  51
  54
  56
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -5
  43
  50
  55
  60
  65
  70
  75
  81
  87
  93
  99
  105
  111
  118
  125
  133
  140
  148
  156
  165
  174
  183
  193
  203
  214
  225
  237
  249
  262
  275
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -62
  -5
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  244
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  283
  48
  52
  57
  62
  67
  72
  77
  83
  89
  94
  101
  107
  114
  120
  128
  135
  143
  151
  159
  168
  177
  186
  196
  207
  218
  229
  241
  253
  266
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  271
  44
  45
  47
  48
  48
  49
  48
  48
  46
  45
  43
  41
  38
  35
  32
  29
  26
  23
  20
  17
  15
  12
  10
  8
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Qualys, Inc. provides cloud-based security and compliance solutions in the United States and internationally. The company offers Qualys Cloud Suite, which includes Vulnerability Management, Continuous Monitoring, Cloud Agent, AssetView, ThreatPROTECT, Policy Compliance, PCI Compliance, Security Assessment Questionnaire, Web Application Scanning, and Web Application Firewall. Its integrated suite of security and compliance solutions delivered on its Qualys Cloud Platform enables customers to identify their IT assets, collect and analyze IT security data, discover and prioritize vulnerabilities, recommend remediation actions, and verify the implementation of such actions. The company also provides core services, including asset tagging and management, reporting and dashboards, questionnaires and collaboration, remediation and workflow, big data correlation and analytics engine, and alerts and notifications, which enable integrated workflows, management and real-time analysis, and reporting across IT security and compliance solutions. In addition, it offers cloud infrastructure services that include the data, data processing capabilities, software and hardware infrastructure, and infrastructure management capabilities. The company markets and sells its IT security and compliance solutions to customers directly through its sales teams, as well as indirectly through its network of channel partners, such as security consulting organizations, managed service providers, value added resellers, and consulting firms. It serves enterprises, government entities, and small and medium-sized businesses in various industries, including education, financial services, government, healthcare, insurance, manufacturing, media, retail, technology, and utilities. The company was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Redwood City, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Qualys (QLYS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 77.1
Price to Sales 7.4
Price to Book 5.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 21.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 32.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 20.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 15%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 10.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Return On Total Capital 8.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.7%
Return On Equity 8.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.7%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 78.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 78.6%
EBITDA Margin 23.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.1%
Operating Margin 15.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 15.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.4%
Net Profit Margin 9.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.9%
Effective Tax Rate 36.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -53.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

QLYS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the QLYS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $198 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Qualys. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Qualys. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our QLYS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 15.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for QLYS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Qualys, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Qualys.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of QLYS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 84.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for QLYS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Qualys.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Qualys. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the QLYS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for QLYS are equal to 18.2%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Qualys operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for QLYS is equal to -10%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $258 million for Qualys - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 34.571 million for Qualys is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Qualys at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to Qualys, Inc. : July 21, 2017   [Jul-21-17 01:58PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Qualys, Inc. : July 10, 2017   [Jul-10-17 03:05PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Qualys, Inc. : June 27, 2017   [Jun-27-17 03:35PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Patching WannaCrypt: Dispatches from the frontline   [May-17-17 03:28PM  TechRepublic]
▶ Qualys tops Street 1Q forecasts   [May-02-17 07:33PM  Associated Press]
▶ Dow Futures Lower: Keep These 5 Cybersecurity Plays Under Surveillance   [Mar-31-17 12:52AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Columbia Wanger Buys LCI Industries, Nasdaq   [Mar-09-17 02:28PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Qualys tops 4Q profit forecasts   [Feb-08-17 06:18PM  AP]
▶ Qualys to Speak at Upcoming Investor Conferences   [Feb-02-17 09:00AM  Marketwired]
▶ Baron Funds Comments on Qualys   [Jan-20-17 04:18PM  Gurufocus]
▶ Baron Funds Comments on Qualys   [Jan-18-17 04:07PM  Gurufocus]
▶ Is Qualys Inc (QLYS) a Good Stock to Buy?   [Dec-10-16 05:01PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Qualys to Participate in Upcoming Investor Conferences   [Nov-16-16 09:00AM  Marketwired]
▶ Qualys to Host Analysts & Investors Day and Live Webcast   [Nov-09-16 09:00AM  Marketwired]
▶ Qualys and NTT Security Announce Strategic Partnership   [Oct-11-16 09:00AM  Marketwired]
Stock chart of QLYS Financial statements of QLYS Annual reports of QLYS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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