Intrinsic value of Qualys - QLYS

Previous Close

$51.30

  Intrinsic Value

$32.77

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-36%

  Value-price divergence*

-86%

Previous close

$51.30

 
Intrinsic value

$32.77

 
Up/down potential

-36%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-86%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of QLYS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  20.73
  14.60
  13.64
  12.78
  12.00
  11.30
  10.67
  10.10
  9.59
  9.13
  8.72
  8.35
  8.01
  7.71
  7.44
  7.20
  6.98
  6.78
  6.60
  6.44
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.95
  5.85
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
Revenue, $m
  198
  227
  258
  291
  326
  362
  401
  442
  484
  528
  574
  622
  672
  724
  778
  834
  892
  952
  1,015
  1,081
  1,149
  1,220
  1,293
  1,370
  1,450
  1,534
  1,621
  1,712
  1,808
  1,907
  2,011
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  192
  219
  247
  276
  307
  340
  375
  410
  448
  487
  528
  570
  614
  660
  707
  756
  808
  861
  916
  974
  1,034
  1,097
  1,162
  1,230
  1,301
  1,375
  1,452
  1,533
  1,617
  1,705
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  168
  192
  219
  247
  276
  307
  340
  375
  410
  448
  487
  528
  570
  614
  660
  707
  756
  808
  861
  916
  974
  1,034
  1,097
  1,162
  1,230
  1,301
  1,375
  1,452
  1,533
  1,617
  1,705
Operating income, $m
  30
  34
  39
  44
  50
  55
  61
  67
  74
  80
  87
  95
  102
  110
  118
  127
  136
  145
  154
  164
  175
  185
  197
  208
  220
  233
  246
  260
  275
  290
  306
EBITDA, $m
  47
  43
  49
  55
  61
  68
  76
  83
  91
  100
  108
  117
  127
  136
  147
  157
  168
  179
  191
  204
  216
  230
  244
  258
  273
  289
  305
  323
  341
  359
  379
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  32
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
Earnings before tax, $m
  30
  34
  39
  43
  47
  52
  57
  62
  67
  73
  79
  85
  91
  98
  105
  112
  119
  127
  135
  143
  152
  161
  170
  180
  190
  201
  212
  223
  236
  248
  261
Tax expense, $m
  11
  9
  10
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  43
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  64
  67
  71
Net income, $m
  19
  25
  28
  31
  34
  38
  41
  45
  49
  53
  58
  62
  67
  71
  76
  82
  87
  93
  98
  105
  111
  117
  124
  131
  139
  147
  155
  163
  172
  181
  191

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  244
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  407
  187
  212
  239
  268
  298
  330
  364
  398
  435
  473
  512
  553
  596
  640
  686
  734
  784
  836
  889
  945
  1,004
  1,065
  1,128
  1,194
  1,263
  1,334
  1,409
  1,488
  1,570
  1,655
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  163
  187
  212
  239
  268
  298
  330
  364
  398
  435
  473
  512
  553
  596
  640
  686
  734
  784
  836
  889
  945
  1,004
  1,065
  1,128
  1,194
  1,263
  1,334
  1,409
  1,488
  1,570
  1,655
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.215
  1.214
  1.217
  1.218
  1.216
  1.215
  1.215
  1.214
  1.216
  1.214
  1.214
  1.215
  1.215
  1.215
  1.216
  1.216
  1.215
  1.214
  1.214
  1.216
  1.216
  1.215
  1.214
  1.215
  1.214
  1.215
  1.215
  1.215
  1.215
  1.215
  1.215
Average production assets, $m
  36
  41
  47
  53
  59
  66
  73
  80
  88
  96
  105
  113
  122
  132
  142
  152
  162
  173
  185
  197
  209
  222
  235
  249
  264
  279
  295
  312
  329
  347
  366
Working capital, $m
  171
  -84
  -95
  -107
  -120
  -134
  -148
  -163
  -179
  -195
  -212
  -230
  -248
  -267
  -287
  -308
  -329
  -351
  -375
  -399
  -424
  -450
  -477
  -506
  -535
  -566
  -598
  -632
  -667
  -704
  -742
Total debt, $m
  0
  19
  42
  66
  92
  120
  148
  178
  210
  242
  276
  312
  349
  387
  427
  469
  512
  556
  603
  652
  702
  754
  809
  866
  925
  987
  1,052
  1,119
  1,190
  1,264
  1,341
Total liabilities, $m
  149
  168
  191
  215
  241
  269
  297
  327
  359
  391
  425
  461
  498
  536
  576
  618
  661
  705
  752
  801
  851
  903
  958
  1,015
  1,074
  1,136
  1,201
  1,268
  1,339
  1,413
  1,490
Total equity, $m
  258
  19
  21
  24
  27
  30
  33
  36
  40
  43
  47
  51
  55
  60
  64
  69
  73
  78
  84
  89
  95
  100
  106
  113
  119
  126
  133
  141
  149
  157
  166
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  407
  187
  212
  239
  268
  299
  330
  363
  399
  434
  472
  512
  553
  596
  640
  687
  734
  783
  836
  890
  946
  1,003
  1,064
  1,128
  1,193
  1,262
  1,334
  1,409
  1,488
  1,570
  1,656
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  1.020
  1.980
  2.770
  3.440
  4.010
  4.490
  4.900
  5.260
  5.570
  5.850
  6.090
  6.310
  6.500
  6.670
  6.830
  6.970
  7.100
  7.220
  7.320
  7.420
  7.520
  7.600
  7.680
  7.750
  7.820
  7.880
  7.940
  8.000
  8.050
  8.100
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.086
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  19
  25
  28
  31
  34
  38
  41
  45
  49
  53
  58
  62
  67
  71
  76
  82
  87
  93
  98
  105
  111
  117
  124
  131
  139
  147
  155
  163
  172
  181
  191
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  17
  8
  9
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  66
  69
  73
Funds from operations, $m
  88
  33
  38
  42
  46
  51
  56
  61
  67
  72
  78
  85
  91
  98
  105
  112
  119
  127
  135
  144
  153
  162
  171
  181
  192
  202
  214
  225
  238
  251
  264
Change in working capital, $m
  20
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
Cash from operations, $m
  68
  44
  49
  54
  59
  65
  70
  76
  82
  89
  95
  102
  109
  117
  125
  133
  141
  150
  159
  168
  178
  188
  199
  210
  221
  233
  246
  259
  273
  287
  302
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
New CAPEX, $m
  -23
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -96
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -55
  -57
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -84
  -88
Free cash flow, $m
  -28
  32
  35
  39
  42
  46
  50
  54
  59
  63
  68
  73
  78
  83
  88
  94
  100
  106
  112
  119
  126
  133
  141
  149
  157
  165
  174
  183
  193
  203
  214
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  19
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  59
  62
  65
  67
  71
  74
  77
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  15
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  23
  19
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  59
  62
  65
  67
  71
  74
  77
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -5
  51
  58
  63
  68
  73
  79
  84
  90
  96
  102
  108
  115
  121
  128
  136
  143
  151
  159
  168
  176
  186
  195
  206
  216
  227
  239
  251
  264
  277
  291
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -62
  -5
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  244
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  290
  55
  60
  65
  70
  76
  81
  87
  92
  98
  104
  111
  117
  124
  131
  138
  146
  154
  162
  171
  180
  189
  199
  210
  220
  232
  243
  256
  269
  283
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  278
  51
  52
  54
  55
  55
  55
  54
  53
  51
  50
  47
  45
  42
  38
  35
  32
  28
  25
  22
  19
  16
  13
  11
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Qualys, Inc. is a provider of cloud-based security and compliance solutions. The Company's solutions enable organizations to identify security risks to their information technology (IT) infrastructures, help protect their IT systems and applications from cyber-attacks. Its suite of security and compliance solutions delivered on its Qualys Cloud Platform enables its customers to identify their IT assets, collect and analyze IT security data, discover and prioritize vulnerabilities, recommend remediation actions and verify the implementation of such actions. Its Qualys Cloud Platform consists of a suite of IT security and compliance solutions. The Qualys Cloud Suite includes solutions, such as Vulnerability Management, Continuous Monitoring, Cloud Agent, AssetView, ThreatPROTECT, Policy Compliance, Payment Card Industry Compliance, Security Assessment Questionnaire, Web Application Scanning and Web Application Firewall. It provides its solutions through a software-as-a-service model.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Qualys (QLYS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 96.8
Price to Sales 9.3
Price to Book 7.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 27
Price to Free Cash Flow 40.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 20.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 15%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 10.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Return On Total Capital 8.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.7%
Return On Equity 8.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.7%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 78.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 78.6%
EBITDA Margin 23.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.1%
Operating Margin 15.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 15.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.4%
Net Profit Margin 9.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.9%
Effective Tax Rate 36.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -53.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

QLYS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the QLYS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $198 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Qualys. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Qualys. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our QLYS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 14.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for QLYS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Qualys, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Qualys.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of QLYS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 84.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for QLYS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Qualys.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Qualys. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the QLYS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for QLYS are equal to 18.2%.

Life of production assets of 2.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Qualys operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for QLYS is equal to -36.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $258 million for Qualys - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 37.004 million for Qualys is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Qualys at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Qualys Completes Asset Purchase of Nevis Networks   [Aug-30-17 09:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Qualys tops Street 2Q forecasts   [Aug-02-17 11:06PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Qualys, Inc. : July 21, 2017   [Jul-21-17 01:58PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Qualys, Inc. : July 10, 2017   [Jul-10-17 03:05PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Qualys, Inc. : June 27, 2017   [Jun-27-17 03:35PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Patching WannaCrypt: Dispatches from the frontline   [May-17-17 03:28PM  TechRepublic]
▶ Qualys tops Street 1Q forecasts   [May-02-17 07:33PM  Associated Press]
▶ Dow Futures Lower: Keep These 5 Cybersecurity Plays Under Surveillance   [Mar-31-17 12:52AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Columbia Wanger Buys LCI Industries, Nasdaq   [Mar-09-17 02:28PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Qualys tops 4Q profit forecasts   [Feb-08-17 06:18PM  AP]
▶ Qualys to Speak at Upcoming Investor Conferences   [Feb-02-17 09:00AM  Marketwired]
▶ Baron Funds Comments on Qualys   [Jan-20-17 04:18PM  Gurufocus]
▶ Baron Funds Comments on Qualys   [Jan-18-17 04:07PM  Gurufocus]
▶ Is Qualys Inc (QLYS) a Good Stock to Buy?   [Dec-10-16 05:01PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Qualys to Participate in Upcoming Investor Conferences   [Nov-16-16 09:00AM  Marketwired]
▶ Qualys to Host Analysts & Investors Day and Live Webcast   [Nov-09-16 09:00AM  Marketwired]
Financial statements of QLYS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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