Intrinsic value of QuinStreet - QNST

Previous Close

$4.64

  Intrinsic Value

$0.40

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-91%

  Value-price divergence*

-45%

Previous close

$4.64

 
Intrinsic value

$0.40

 
Up/down potential

-91%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-45%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of QNST stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  5.67
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  298
  304
  311
  319
  328
  338
  349
  361
  373
  387
  402
  418
  435
  453
  472
  493
  514
  537
  561
  587
  614
  642
  672
  704
  737
  772
  809
  848
  889
  932
  978
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  304
  311
  319
  327
  337
  348
  359
  372
  386
  400
  410
  427
  445
  463
  483
  505
  527
  551
  576
  602
  630
  660
  691
  723
  758
  794
  832
  872
  915
  959
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
Total operating expenses, $m
  317
  323
  331
  339
  348
  358
  370
  382
  395
  410
  424
  435
  453
  471
  490
  511
  533
  556
  581
  606
  633
  662
  693
  725
  757
  793
  830
  869
  910
  954
  999
Operating income, $m
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -22
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -21
  -21
  -21
  -21
  -21
EBITDA, $m
  -4
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -14
  -14
  -14
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
Earnings before tax, $m
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -27
  -28
  -28
  -29
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -27
  -28
  -28
  -29

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  54
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  193
  142
  145
  149
  153
  158
  163
  168
  174
  181
  188
  195
  203
  211
  220
  230
  240
  251
  262
  274
  286
  300
  314
  328
  344
  360
  377
  396
  415
  435
  456
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  139
  142
  145
  149
  153
  158
  163
  168
  174
  181
  188
  195
  203
  211
  220
  230
  240
  251
  262
  274
  286
  300
  314
  328
  344
  360
  377
  396
  415
  435
  456
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.144
  2.141
  2.145
  2.141
  2.144
  2.139
  2.141
  2.149
  2.144
  2.138
  2.138
  2.144
  2.143
  2.147
  2.145
  2.143
  2.142
  2.139
  2.141
  2.142
  2.147
  2.140
  2.140
  2.146
  2.142
  2.144
  2.146
  2.141
  2.142
  2.143
  2.145
Average production assets, $m
  23
  23
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
  75
Working capital, $m
  44
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
Total debt, $m
  15
  1
  2
  4
  5
  7
  9
  11
  13
  16
  18
  21
  24
  28
  31
  35
  38
  42
  47
  51
  56
  61
  66
  72
  78
  84
  91
  98
  105
  113
  121
Total liabilities, $m
  68
  54
  55
  57
  58
  60
  62
  64
  66
  69
  71
  74
  77
  81
  84
  88
  91
  95
  100
  104
  109
  114
  119
  125
  131
  137
  144
  151
  158
  166
  174
Total equity, $m
  125
  88
  90
  92
  95
  98
  101
  104
  108
  112
  116
  121
  126
  131
  136
  142
  148
  155
  162
  169
  177
  185
  194
  203
  213
  223
  234
  245
  257
  269
  282
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  193
  142
  145
  149
  153
  158
  163
  168
  174
  181
  187
  195
  203
  212
  220
  230
  239
  250
  262
  273
  286
  299
  313
  328
  344
  360
  378
  396
  415
  435
  456
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.120
  0.010
  0.030
  0.040
  0.060
  0.070
  0.090
  0.110
  0.120
  0.140
  0.160
  0.180
  0.190
  0.210
  0.230
  0.240
  0.260
  0.270
  0.290
  0.300
  0.320
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.370
  0.380
  0.390
  0.400
  0.410
  0.420
  0.430
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.511
  0.619
  0.619
  0.619
  0.619
  0.619
  0.619
  0.619
  0.619
  0.619
  0.619
  0.619
  0.619
  0.619
  0.619
  0.619
  0.619
  0.619
  0.619
  0.619
  0.619
  0.619
  0.619
  0.619
  0.619
  0.619
  0.619
  0.619
  0.619
  0.619
  0.619

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -27
  -28
  -28
  -29
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  15
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
Funds from operations, $m
  -5
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -21
  -22
Change in working capital, $m
  -6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
Cash from operations, $m
  1
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -22
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
New CAPEX, $m
  -5
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -5
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
Free cash flow, $m
  -4
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -31
  -32
  -33
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  28
  23
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  40
  41
  42
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -3
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  31
  26
  27
  28
  28
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  37
  38
  40
  41
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  50
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  11
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -42
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  39
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  26
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -24
  -25
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  25
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -11
  -11
  -10
  -10
  -9
  -9
  -8
  -7
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -5
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  86.8
  75.2
  65.1
  56.3
  48.7
  42.1
  36.4
  31.5
  27.3
  23.7
  21.1
  18.8
  16.8
  15.0
  13.4
  12.0
  10.7
  9.6
  8.6
  7.8
  7.0
  6.3
  5.7
  5.1
  4.6
  4.2
  3.8
  3.5
  3.2
  2.9

QuinStreet, Inc., a digital performance marketing product and media company, provides customer acquisition services for its clients in the United States and internationally. The company offers online marketing services to its clients in the form of qualified leads, inquiries, clicks, calls, applications, customers, display advertisements, or impressions through its Websites or third-party publishers. It provides its services in various verticals, such as financial services, education, business-to-business technology, and home services. QuinStreet, Inc. was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Foster City, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  QuinStreet (QNST)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -11.1
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 1.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 211.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -52.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 5.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -16.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -3.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 4
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 12%
Interest Coverage -18
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -18.6%
Return On Total Capital -13.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -24.3%
Return On Equity -14.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -32.6%
Asset Turnover 1.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 9.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.4%
EBITDA Margin -1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.5%
Operating Margin -6.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -17.1%
Pre-Tax Margin -6.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -17.4%
Net Profit Margin -6.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -21.7%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

QNST stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the QNST stock intrinsic value calculation we used $298 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by QuinStreet. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of QuinStreet. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our QNST stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for QNST is calculated based on our internal credit rating of QuinStreet, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of QuinStreet.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of QNST stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 100%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $19 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for QNST stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.7% for QuinStreet.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for QuinStreet. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the QNST stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for QNST are equal to 7.7%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in QuinStreet operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for QNST is equal to 1.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $125 million for QuinStreet - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 43.534 million for QuinStreet is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of QuinStreet at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ QuinStreet reports 4Q loss   [Aug-08-17 05:26PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to QuinStreet, Inc. : June 14, 2017   [Jun-14-17 01:45PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to QuinStreet, Inc. : May 16, 2017   [May-16-17 12:59PM  Capital Cube]
▶ QuinStreet To Participate in Upcoming Investor Conferences   [May-11-17 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ QuinStreet posts 3Q profit   [May-09-17 04:56PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to QuinStreet, Inc. : April 19, 2017   [Apr-19-17 02:32PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to QuinStreet, Inc. : April 7, 2017   [Apr-07-17 05:20PM  Capital Cube]
▶ eWEEK Introduces Comprehensive Website Redesign   [Mar-21-17 08:00AM  Marketwired]
▶ QuinStreet reports 2Q loss   [05:08PM  Associated Press]
▶ QuinStreet Enhances Senior Leadership Team and Capabilities   [Jan-17-17 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Is Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc (MDGL) A Good Stock to Buy?   [Dec-15-16 06:49PM  Insider Monkey]
▶ How QuinStreet Inc (QNST) Holds Up Among Its Peers   [Dec-14-16 01:39AM  Insider Monkey]
▶ How QuinStreet Inc (QNST) Holds Up Among Its Peers   [01:39AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Fixed Mortgage Rates Creep Toward Record Lows   [Jul-12-16 09:13PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Dad's 'salary' drops for the first time in six years   [Jun-16-16 08:35AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Is BioTime, Inc. (BTX) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-13  06:30PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Santa's 'salary' up 4% to $143,000   [Dec-08  08:04AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Should You Avoid Malibu Boats Inc (MBUU)?   [Nov-30  10:33AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Should You Buy Easterly Acquisition Corp (EACQ)?   [Nov-26  06:14AM  at Insider Monkey]
Stock chart of QNST Financial statements of QNST
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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