Intrinsic value of Quantum - QTM

Previous Close

$4.49

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$4.49

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of QTM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  6.09
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  505
  515
  527
  540
  556
  573
  591
  611
  633
  656
  682
  709
  737
  768
  800
  835
  872
  910
  951
  995
  1,040
  1,088
  1,139
  1,193
  1,249
  1,309
  1,372
  1,437
  1,507
  1,580
  1,657
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  589
  602
  618
  635
  654
  676
  699
  723
  750
  779
  810
  843
  878
  915
  954
  996
  1,041
  1,087
  1,137
  1,189
  1,244
  1,302
  1,364
  1,428
  1,496
  1,568
  1,643
  1,722
  1,806
  1,893
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  493
  589
  602
  618
  635
  654
  676
  699
  723
  750
  779
  810
  843
  878
  915
  954
  996
  1,041
  1,087
  1,137
  1,189
  1,244
  1,302
  1,364
  1,428
  1,496
  1,568
  1,643
  1,722
  1,806
  1,893
Operating income, $m
  12
  -74
  -75
  -77
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -87
  -91
  -94
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -163
  -171
  -179
  -187
  -196
  -206
  -215
  -226
  -237
EBITDA, $m
  17
  -71
  -73
  -75
  -77
  -79
  -82
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -131
  -137
  -144
  -150
  -157
  -165
  -173
  -181
  -190
  -199
  -208
  -218
  -229
Interest expense (income), $m
  6
  5
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
Earnings before tax, $m
  5
  -79
  -75
  -77
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -88
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -129
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -164
  -172
  -181
  -190
  -199
  -209
  -220
  -231
  -242
  -255
Tax expense, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  4
  -79
  -75
  -77
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -88
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -129
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -164
  -172
  -181
  -190
  -199
  -209
  -220
  -231
  -242
  -255

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  13
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  225
  216
  221
  227
  233
  240
  248
  257
  266
  276
  286
  297
  310
  322
  336
  351
  366
  382
  399
  418
  437
  457
  478
  501
  525
  549
  576
  603
  633
  663
  695
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  212
  216
  221
  227
  233
  240
  248
  257
  266
  276
  286
  297
  310
  322
  336
  351
  366
  382
  399
  418
  437
  457
  478
  501
  525
  549
  576
  603
  633
  663
  695
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.382
  2.384
  2.385
  2.379
  2.386
  2.388
  2.383
  2.377
  2.380
  2.377
  2.385
  2.387
  2.377
  2.385
  2.381
  2.379
  2.383
  2.382
  2.383
  2.380
  2.380
  2.381
  2.383
  2.381
  2.379
  2.384
  2.382
  2.383
  2.381
  2.383
  2.384
Average production assets, $m
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
Working capital, $m
  -42
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
Total debt, $m
  128
  -18
  -14
  -9
  -3
  3
  10
  18
  26
  35
  45
  55
  66
  77
  89
  102
  116
  131
  146
  163
  180
  198
  217
  238
  259
  282
  305
  330
  356
  384
  413
Total liabilities, $m
  341
  195
  199
  204
  210
  216
  223
  231
  239
  248
  258
  268
  279
  290
  302
  315
  329
  344
  359
  376
  393
  411
  430
  451
  472
  495
  518
  543
  569
  597
  626
Total equity, $m
  -116
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  70
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  225
  217
  221
  227
  233
  240
  248
  257
  266
  276
  287
  298
  310
  322
  336
  350
  366
  382
  399
  418
  437
  457
  478
  501
  524
  550
  576
  603
  632
  663
  696
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -1.103
  -0.850
  -0.630
  -0.390
  -0.130
  0.140
  0.420
  0.700
  0.980
  1.270
  1.560
  1.840
  2.120
  2.390
  2.660
  2.920
  3.180
  3.430
  3.670
  3.900
  4.120
  4.340
  4.550
  4.750
  4.940
  5.120
  5.300
  5.470
  5.630
  5.790
  5.940
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.608
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  4
  -79
  -75
  -77
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -88
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -129
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -164
  -172
  -181
  -190
  -199
  -209
  -220
  -231
  -242
  -255
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  5
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
Funds from operations, $m
  -4
  -76
  -72
  -74
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -159
  -167
  -175
  -184
  -193
  -202
  -213
  -223
  -235
  -247
Change in working capital, $m
  -13
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
Cash from operations, $m
  9
  -77
  -72
  -74
  -77
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -159
  -167
  -176
  -185
  -194
  -203
  -214
  -225
  -236
  -248
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -22
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
Free cash flow, $m
  -13
  -79
  -75
  -77
  -80
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -144
  -150
  -158
  -166
  -174
  -182
  -192
  -201
  -211
  -222
  -233
  -245
  -257
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -8
  -133
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  217
  75
  77
  80
  82
  85
  89
  92
  96
  100
  105
  109
  114
  119
  125
  131
  137
  144
  151
  158
  166
  174
  183
  192
  202
  212
  222
  234
  245
  258
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -8
  84
  79
  82
  86
  88
  92
  97
  100
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  131
  138
  145
  152
  159
  167
  175
  184
  193
  203
  213
  224
  236
  247
  260
  273
  287
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -21
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -10
  -217
  -75
  -77
  -80
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -166
  -174
  -183
  -192
  -202
  -212
  -222
  -234
  -245
  -258
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -213
  -70
  -72
  -74
  -76
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -87
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -141
  -147
  -155
  -162
  -170
  -179
  -188
  -197
  -207
  -217
  -228
Discount rate, %
 
  13.40
  14.07
  14.77
  15.51
  16.29
  17.10
  17.96
  18.86
  19.80
  20.79
  21.83
  22.92
  24.06
  25.27
  26.53
  27.86
  29.25
  30.71
  32.25
  33.86
  35.55
  37.33
  39.20
  41.16
  43.22
  45.38
  47.65
  50.03
  52.53
  55.16
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -188
  -54
  -48
  -41
  -36
  -30
  -25
  -21
  -17
  -14
  -11
  -8
  -6
  -5
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  11.2
  2.5
  0.6
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Quantum Corporation focuses on scale-out storage, archive and data protection, providing solutions for capturing, sharing, managing and preserving digital assets over the entire data lifecycle. The Company's end-to-end tiered storage solutions enable users to maximize the value of their data by making it accessible whenever and wherever needed, retaining it indefinitely and reducing total cost and complexity. It works with a network of distributors, value-added resellers (VARs), direct marketing resellers (DMRs), original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and other suppliers to meet customers' evolving needs. Its scale-out storage portfolio includes StorNext software, appliances and full systems called StorNext Pro Solutions, as well as Xcellis workflow storage, QXS disk storage, Lattus extended online storage and Q-Cloud Archive and Vault services. Its StorNext offerings enable customers to manage large unstructured data sets in an information workflow.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Quantum (QTM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 38.2
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book -1.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 17
Price to Free Cash Flow 21.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 6.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -33.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -19.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity -56%
Total Debt to Equity -110.3%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.2%
Return On Total Capital 38.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -32%
Return On Equity -3.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.4%
Asset Turnover 2.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 42.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 43%
EBITDA Margin 3.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.9%
Operating Margin 2.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.8%
Net Profit Margin 0.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -4%
Effective Tax Rate 20%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

QTM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the QTM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $505 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Quantum. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Quantum. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our QTM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 13.4%, whose default value for QTM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Quantum, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Quantum.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of QTM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 114.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for QTM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.6% for Quantum.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Quantum. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the QTM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for QTM are equal to 2.4%.

Life of production assets of 2.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Quantum operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for QTM is equal to 1.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-116 million for Quantum - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 34.472 million for Quantum is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Quantum at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ What Is Quantum Corporations (QTM) Share Price Doing?   [Nov-10-17 05:15PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Quantum Corp. reports 2Q loss   [07:01PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Quantum Corp. : October 30, 2017   [Oct-30-17 12:12PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Quantum Corp. : September 28, 2017   [Sep-28-17 10:18AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Quantum Corp. : September 6, 2017   [Sep-05-17 09:53PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Quantum Corp. reports 1Q loss   [12:33AM  Associated Press]
▶ 3 Tech Stocks Under $10 to Buy Now   [Jul-05-17 01:44PM  Zacks]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Quantum Corp. : June 30, 2017   [Jun-30-17 03:18PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Quantum Corp. : June 8, 2017   [Jun-08-17 01:53PM  Capital Cube]
▶ 5 of the Best Stocks Under $10 for 2017   [Jun-01-17 02:38PM  Zacks]
▶ Quantum Corp. reports 4Q loss   [May-10-17 06:08PM  Associated Press]
▶ Why Seagate Is Still Producing HDDs When Preferences Are Shifting   [Mar-17-17 03:56PM  at Market Realist]
▶ Five Penny Stocks to Buy Now   [Mar-07-17 12:19PM  Insider Monkey]
▶ Five Penny Stocks to Buy Now   [12:19PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Quantum to Present at the 29th Annual ROTH Conference   [Mar-06-17 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Top 5 Technology Penny Stocks to Watch for 2017   [Mar-02-17 06:00AM  Investopedia]
▶ Quantum Corp. posts 3Q profit   [Jan-25-17 06:44PM  AP]
Financial statements of QTM
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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