Intrinsic value of Quotient Technology - QUOT

Previous Close

$11.65

  Intrinsic Value

$15.05

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+29%

Previous close

$11.65

 
Intrinsic value

$15.05

 
Up/down potential

+29%

 
Rating

buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of QUOT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  16.03
  24.20
  22.28
  20.55
  19.00
  17.60
  16.34
  15.20
  14.18
  13.26
  12.44
  11.69
  11.03
  10.42
  9.88
  9.39
  8.95
  8.56
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
  7.33
  7.10
  6.89
  6.70
  6.53
  6.38
  6.24
  6.12
  6.00
  5.90
Revenue, $m
  275
  342
  418
  503
  599
  705
  820
  944
  1,078
  1,221
  1,373
  1,534
  1,703
  1,880
  2,066
  2,260
  2,462
  2,673
  2,892
  3,120
  3,357
  3,604
  3,860
  4,125
  4,402
  4,689
  4,989
  5,300
  5,624
  5,962
  6,314
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  233
  283
  341
  405
  475
  552
  635
  725
  820
  922
  1,025
  1,137
  1,256
  1,380
  1,510
  1,645
  1,786
  1,932
  2,084
  2,243
  2,407
  2,578
  2,756
  2,941
  3,133
  3,332
  3,540
  3,757
  3,982
  4,218
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  113
  116
  118
  121
  124
  128
  131
  134
  137
  141
  144
  148
  152
  155
  159
  163
  167
  172
  176
  180
  185
  189
  194
  199
  204
  209
  214
  220
  225
  231
Total operating expenses, $m
  295
  346
  399
  459
  526
  599
  680
  766
  859
  957
  1,063
  1,169
  1,285
  1,408
  1,535
  1,669
  1,808
  1,953
  2,104
  2,260
  2,423
  2,592
  2,767
  2,950
  3,140
  3,337
  3,541
  3,754
  3,977
  4,207
  4,449
Operating income, $m
  -20
  -4
  19
  44
  73
  105
  140
  178
  220
  264
  311
  365
  417
  473
  531
  591
  654
  720
  789
  860
  934
  1,012
  1,092
  1,176
  1,262
  1,353
  1,447
  1,545
  1,648
  1,754
  1,865
EBITDA, $m
  3
  14
  39
  68
  100
  136
  176
  219
  265
  315
  368
  423
  482
  544
  609
  677
  748
  822
  899
  979
  1,063
  1,149
  1,239
  1,333
  1,431
  1,532
  1,638
  1,748
  1,862
  1,982
  2,107
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
Earnings before tax, $m
  -19
  -4
  18
  43
  72
  103
  137
  175
  215
  258
  305
  358
  409
  463
  520
  579
  641
  706
  773
  843
  916
  992
  1,070
  1,152
  1,238
  1,326
  1,419
  1,515
  1,615
  1,720
  1,829
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  5
  12
  19
  28
  37
  47
  58
  70
  82
  97
  110
  125
  140
  156
  173
  191
  209
  228
  247
  268
  289
  311
  334
  358
  383
  409
  436
  464
  494
Net income, $m
  -19
  -4
  13
  32
  52
  75
  100
  128
  157
  189
  222
  261
  299
  338
  380
  423
  468
  515
  564
  616
  669
  724
  781
  841
  903
  968
  1,036
  1,106
  1,179
  1,255
  1,335

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  175
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  363
  233
  285
  344
  410
  482
  560
  645
  737
  835
  939
  1,048
  1,164
  1,285
  1,412
  1,545
  1,683
  1,827
  1,977
  2,133
  2,295
  2,463
  2,638
  2,820
  3,009
  3,205
  3,410
  3,623
  3,844
  4,075
  4,316
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  188
  233
  285
  344
  410
  482
  560
  645
  737
  835
  939
  1,048
  1,164
  1,285
  1,412
  1,545
  1,683
  1,827
  1,977
  2,133
  2,295
  2,463
  2,638
  2,820
  3,009
  3,205
  3,410
  3,623
  3,844
  4,075
  4,316
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.463
  1.468
  1.467
  1.462
  1.461
  1.463
  1.464
  1.464
  1.463
  1.462
  1.462
  1.464
  1.463
  1.463
  1.463
  1.463
  1.463
  1.463
  1.463
  1.463
  1.463
  1.463
  1.463
  1.463
  1.463
  1.463
  1.463
  1.463
  1.463
  1.463
  1.463
Average production assets, $m
  53
  65
  80
  96
  114
  135
  157
  180
  206
  233
  262
  293
  325
  359
  395
  432
  470
  511
  552
  596
  641
  688
  737
  788
  841
  896
  953
  1,012
  1,074
  1,139
  1,206
Working capital, $m
  208
  41
  50
  60
  72
  85
  98
  113
  129
  147
  165
  184
  204
  226
  248
  271
  295
  321
  347
  374
  403
  432
  463
  495
  528
  563
  599
  636
  675
  715
  758
Total debt, $m
  0
  12
  26
  42
  60
  80
  101
  124
  149
  175
  203
  233
  264
  297
  332
  368
  405
  444
  485
  527
  571
  617
  664
  713
  764
  818
  873
  931
  991
  1,053
  1,119
Total liabilities, $m
  51
  63
  77
  93
  111
  131
  152
  175
  200
  226
  254
  284
  315
  348
  383
  419
  456
  495
  536
  578
  622
  668
  715
  764
  815
  869
  924
  982
  1,042
  1,104
  1,170
Total equity, $m
  312
  170
  208
  251
  299
  351
  408
  471
  537
  609
  684
  764
  848
  937
  1,030
  1,126
  1,227
  1,332
  1,441
  1,555
  1,673
  1,796
  1,923
  2,056
  2,193
  2,337
  2,486
  2,641
  2,802
  2,971
  3,146
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  363
  233
  285
  344
  410
  482
  560
  646
  737
  835
  938
  1,048
  1,163
  1,285
  1,413
  1,545
  1,683
  1,827
  1,977
  2,133
  2,295
  2,464
  2,638
  2,820
  3,008
  3,206
  3,410
  3,623
  3,844
  4,075
  4,316
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.070
  0.130
  0.170
  0.200
  0.230
  0.250
  0.260
  0.280
  0.290
  0.300
  0.310
  0.310
  0.320
  0.320
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.360
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729
  0.729

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -19
  -4
  13
  32
  52
  75
  100
  128
  157
  189
  222
  261
  299
  338
  380
  423
  468
  515
  564
  616
  669
  724
  781
  841
  903
  968
  1,036
  1,106
  1,179
  1,255
  1,335
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  23
  17
  20
  24
  27
  31
  36
  40
  46
  51
  57
  59
  65
  72
  79
  86
  94
  102
  110
  119
  128
  138
  147
  158
  168
  179
  191
  202
  215
  228
  241
Funds from operations, $m
  10
  14
  34
  55
  80
  106
  136
  168
  203
  240
  279
  320
  364
  410
  459
  509
  562
  617
  675
  735
  797
  862
  929
  999
  1,072
  1,147
  1,226
  1,308
  1,394
  1,483
  1,576
Change in working capital, $m
  -12
  8
  9
  10
  11
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  37
  39
  41
  42
Cash from operations, $m
  22
  6
  25
  45
  68
  94
  122
  153
  187
  223
  261
  300
  344
  389
  436
  486
  538
  592
  649
  707
  768
  832
  898
  967
  1,038
  1,113
  1,190
  1,271
  1,355
  1,442
  1,534
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -11
  -13
  -16
  -19
  -23
  -27
  -31
  -36
  -41
  -47
  -52
  -59
  -65
  -72
  -79
  -86
  -94
  -102
  -110
  -119
  -128
  -138
  -147
  -158
  -168
  -179
  -191
  -202
  -215
  -228
New CAPEX, $m
  -6
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -67
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -51
  -24
  -28
  -32
  -37
  -43
  -49
  -55
  -62
  -68
  -76
  -83
  -91
  -99
  -107
  -116
  -125
  -134
  -144
  -154
  -164
  -175
  -187
  -198
  -211
  -223
  -236
  -250
  -264
  -280
  -295
Free cash flow, $m
  -29
  -18
  -3
  13
  31
  51
  73
  98
  125
  154
  185
  217
  253
  290
  329
  370
  413
  458
  505
  553
  604
  657
  712
  769
  828
  890
  954
  1,021
  1,091
  1,163
  1,239
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  65
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  37
  25
  11
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  49
  39
  27
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  65
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -29
  32
  36
  40
  48
  70
  95
  121
  150
  181
  213
  247
  284
  323
  363
  406
  450
  497
  545
  596
  648
  702
  759
  818
  879
  943
  1,009
  1,079
  1,151
  1,226
  1,304
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -47
  -37
  -38
  -43
  -48
  -53
  -57
  -62
  -67
  -71
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -109
  -114
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -133
  -138
  -143
  -149
  -155
  -162
  -168
  -175
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  175
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  170
  -2
  -3
  1
  18
  37
  59
  83
  109
  138
  167
  200
  234
  271
  309
  350
  392
  436
  482
  530
  580
  631
  685
  741
  800
  860
  923
  989
  1,057
  1,129
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  163
  -2
  -3
  1
  14
  27
  40
  52
  63
  72
  79
  85
  89
  91
  91
  89
  85
  80
  74
  67
  60
  52
  45
  38
  31
  25
  20
  15
  12
  8
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  92.8
  89.1
  87.7
  87.7
  87.7
  87.7
  87.7
  87.7
  87.7
  87.7
  87.7
  87.7
  87.7
  87.7
  87.7
  87.7
  87.7
  87.7
  87.7
  87.7
  87.7
  87.7
  87.7
  87.7
  87.7
  87.7
  87.7
  87.7
  87.7
  87.7

Quotient Technology Inc. is a provider of digital platform that enables consumer packaged goods (CPG) brands and retailers to engage shoppers through personalized and targeted promotions and media. Through the Company's platform, CPGs and retailers are able to use online and in-store point-of-sale (POS) shopper data and analytics. The Company's network includes its Website and mobile properties of its consumer brand, Coupons.com, as well as its other owned and operated properties, and thousands of its publisher partners. In addition, the Company operates its platform, Retailer iQ, on a co-branded or white label basis with its retailer partners, providing them a digital platform to directly engage their shoppers across their Websites, mobile, e-commerce, and social channels. Retailer iQ integrates with retailers' POS technology and leverages a set of shopper insights, including online behaviors, purchase, and purchase intent data to drive personalized and targeted promotions and media.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Quotient Technology (QUOT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -54.3
Price to Sales 3.8
Price to Book 3.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 46.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 64.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 16%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -57.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -15.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -5.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.7%
Return On Total Capital -6.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.5%
Return On Equity -6.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -10%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 58.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 60.2%
EBITDA Margin 1.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.8%
Operating Margin -7.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.9%
Pre-Tax Margin -6.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.4%
Net Profit Margin -6.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.6%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

QUOT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the QUOT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $275 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Quotient Technology. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Quotient Technology. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our QUOT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 24.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for QUOT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Quotient Technology, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Quotient Technology.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of QUOT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 68.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $110 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for QUOT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Quotient Technology.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Quotient Technology. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the QUOT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for QUOT are equal to 19.1%.

Life of production assets of 4.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Quotient Technology operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for QUOT is equal to 12%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $312 million for Quotient Technology - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 92.766 million for Quotient Technology is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Quotient Technology at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Barclays Expecting A Q3 Beat From Coupa Software   [Nov-27-17 03:49PM  Benzinga]
▶ Quotient Wins Best Place to Work Award   [Nov-15-17 02:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ Quotient Tech reports 3Q loss   [Nov-01-17 06:15PM  Associated Press]
▶ Quotient Tech reports 2Q loss   [Aug-01-17 11:13PM  Associated Press]
▶ Coupa Narrows Q1 Loss As Revenue Tops Estimates; Shares Rise   [Jun-05-17 04:46PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Quotient Completes Acquisition of Crisp Media   [Jun-01-17 07:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Quotient Helps Obtain Patent Win for Retailers   [May-25-17 07:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Coupons.Com App Wins MediaPost Appy Award   [May-18-17 07:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Quotient Tech reports 1Q loss   [May-02-17 06:45PM  Associated Press]
▶ Vetr Crowd Downgrades Coupa Following Offering   [Apr-13-17 12:08PM  Benzinga]
▶ Coupa Software Gears Up for Secondary Offering   [Apr-11-17 11:25AM  24/7 Wall St.]
▶ Coupons.com Unveils America's 25 Most Frugal Cities   [Mar-30-17 09:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Why Coupa Software Stock Dropped 11% on Tuesday   [Mar-14-17 09:30PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Quotient Tech tops Street 4Q forecasts   [Feb-09-17 06:27PM  Associated Press]
▶ Is Quotient Technology Inc (QUOT) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-14-16 01:42AM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of QUOT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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