Intrinsic value of RAIT Financial Trust - RAS

Previous Close

$0.54

  Intrinsic Value

$1.22

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+126%

Previous close

$0.54

 
Intrinsic value

$1.22

 
Up/down potential

+126%

 
Rating

str. buy

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as RAS.

We calculate the intrinsic value of RAS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -13.28
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  209
  213
  218
  224
  230
  237
  245
  253
  262
  272
  282
  293
  305
  318
  331
  346
  361
  377
  394
  412
  431
  450
  472
  494
  517
  542
  568
  595
  624
  654
  686
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  227
  233
  239
  245
  253
  261
  270
  280
  290
  301
  313
  326
  339
  353
  369
  385
  402
  420
  439
  459
  481
  503
  527
  552
  578
  606
  635
  665
  698
  732
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  292
  227
  233
  239
  245
  253
  261
  270
  280
  290
  301
  313
  326
  339
  353
  369
  385
  402
  420
  439
  459
  481
  503
  527
  552
  578
  606
  635
  665
  698
  732
Operating income, $m
  -82
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
EBITDA, $m
  -3
  66
  68
  69
  71
  74
  76
  79
  81
  84
  88
  91
  95
  99
  103
  107
  112
  117
  122
  128
  134
  140
  146
  153
  161
  168
  176
  185
  194
  203
  213
Interest expense (income), $m
  98
  82
  84
  86
  89
  92
  95
  98
  102
  106
  110
  114
  119
  125
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  164
  171
  180
  189
  198
  208
  218
  229
  240
  252
  265
  278
Earnings before tax, $m
  -35
  -97
  -99
  -101
  -104
  -107
  -111
  -115
  -119
  -124
  -129
  -134
  -140
  -146
  -152
  -159
  -167
  -174
  -182
  -191
  -200
  -210
  -220
  -231
  -242
  -254
  -267
  -280
  -294
  -308
  -324
Tax expense, $m
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  25
  -97
  -99
  -101
  -104
  -107
  -111
  -115
  -119
  -124
  -129
  -134
  -140
  -146
  -152
  -159
  -167
  -174
  -182
  -191
  -200
  -210
  -220
  -231
  -242
  -254
  -267
  -280
  -294
  -308
  -324

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  111
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,407
  2,343
  2,397
  2,458
  2,527
  2,604
  2,688
  2,779
  2,879
  2,985
  3,100
  3,222
  3,353
  3,493
  3,640
  3,798
  3,964
  4,140
  4,326
  4,523
  4,731
  4,950
  5,182
  5,425
  5,682
  5,953
  6,238
  6,537
  6,853
  7,185
  7,534
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,296
  2,343
  2,397
  2,458
  2,527
  2,604
  2,688
  2,779
  2,879
  2,985
  3,100
  3,222
  3,353
  3,493
  3,640
  3,798
  3,964
  4,140
  4,326
  4,523
  4,731
  4,950
  5,182
  5,425
  5,682
  5,953
  6,238
  6,537
  6,853
  7,185
  7,534
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.091
  0.091
  0.091
  0.091
  0.091
  0.091
  0.091
  0.091
  0.091
  0.091
  0.091
  0.091
  0.091
  0.091
  0.091
  0.091
  0.091
  0.091
  0.091
  0.091
  0.091
  0.091
  0.091
  0.091
  0.091
  0.091
  0.091
  0.091
  0.091
  0.091
  0.091
Average production assets, $m
  876
  893
  914
  937
  964
  993
  1,025
  1,060
  1,098
  1,139
  1,182
  1,229
  1,279
  1,332
  1,388
  1,448
  1,512
  1,579
  1,650
  1,725
  1,804
  1,888
  1,976
  2,069
  2,167
  2,270
  2,379
  2,493
  2,614
  2,740
  2,873
Working capital, $m
  0
  -113
  -116
  -119
  -122
  -126
  -130
  -134
  -139
  -144
  -150
  -156
  -162
  -169
  -176
  -184
  -192
  -200
  -209
  -219
  -229
  -239
  -250
  -262
  -275
  -288
  -301
  -316
  -331
  -347
  -364
Total debt, $m
  1,751
  1,792
  1,837
  1,890
  1,949
  2,014
  2,085
  2,163
  2,248
  2,339
  2,436
  2,540
  2,652
  2,770
  2,896
  3,030
  3,171
  3,321
  3,480
  3,647
  3,824
  4,011
  4,208
  4,415
  4,634
  4,864
  5,106
  5,361
  5,630
  5,912
  6,209
Total liabilities, $m
  1,953
  1,994
  2,039
  2,092
  2,151
  2,216
  2,287
  2,365
  2,450
  2,541
  2,638
  2,742
  2,854
  2,972
  3,098
  3,232
  3,373
  3,523
  3,682
  3,849
  4,026
  4,213
  4,410
  4,617
  4,836
  5,066
  5,308
  5,563
  5,832
  6,114
  6,411
Total equity, $m
  454
  349
  357
  366
  377
  388
  401
  414
  429
  445
  462
  480
  500
  520
  542
  566
  591
  617
  645
  674
  705
  738
  772
  808
  847
  887
  929
  974
  1,021
  1,071
  1,123
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,407
  2,343
  2,396
  2,458
  2,528
  2,604
  2,688
  2,779
  2,879
  2,986
  3,100
  3,222
  3,354
  3,492
  3,640
  3,798
  3,964
  4,140
  4,327
  4,523
  4,731
  4,951
  5,182
  5,425
  5,683
  5,953
  6,237
  6,537
  6,853
  7,185
  7,534
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.857
  5.130
  5.150
  5.160
  5.170
  5.190
  5.210
  5.220
  5.240
  5.260
  5.270
  5.290
  5.310
  5.320
  5.340
  5.350
  5.370
  5.380
  5.400
  5.410
  5.420
  5.440
  5.450
  5.460
  5.470
  5.480
  5.490
  5.500
  5.510
  5.520
  5.530
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  25
  -97
  -99
  -101
  -104
  -107
  -111
  -115
  -119
  -124
  -129
  -134
  -140
  -146
  -152
  -159
  -167
  -174
  -182
  -191
  -200
  -210
  -220
  -231
  -242
  -254
  -267
  -280
  -294
  -308
  -324
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  79
  80
  82
  84
  87
  89
  92
  95
  99
  103
  107
  111
  115
  120
  125
  130
  136
  142
  149
  155
  163
  170
  178
  186
  195
  205
  214
  225
  235
  247
  259
Funds from operations, $m
  185
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -65
Change in working capital, $m
  37
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
Cash from operations, $m
  148
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -79
  -80
  -82
  -84
  -87
  -89
  -92
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -115
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -155
  -163
  -170
  -178
  -186
  -195
  -205
  -214
  -225
  -235
  -247
New CAPEX, $m
  -30
  -17
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -127
  -133
Cash from investing activities, $m
  609
  -96
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -161
  -168
  -176
  -185
  -193
  -203
  -213
  -224
  -234
  -247
  -258
  -271
  -284
  -298
  -314
  -328
  -345
  -362
  -380
Free cash flow, $m
  757
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -163
  -171
  -179
  -188
  -197
  -206
  -216
  -227
  -238
  -250
  -262
  -275
  -289
  -304
  -319
  -335
  -352
  -369
  -388
  -408
  -428
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -562
  41
  46
  52
  59
  65
  72
  78
  84
  91
  97
  104
  111
  119
  126
  134
  142
  150
  159
  168
  177
  187
  197
  207
  219
  230
  242
  255
  268
  282
  297
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -13
  103
  107
  111
  115
  119
  124
  129
  134
  140
  146
  152
  159
  167
  174
  183
  191
  201
  210
  220
  231
  243
  255
  267
  280
  294
  309
  325
  341
  358
  376
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -676
  144
  153
  163
  174
  184
  196
  207
  218
  231
  243
  256
  270
  286
  300
  317
  333
  351
  369
  388
  408
  430
  452
  474
  499
  524
  551
  580
  609
  640
  673
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  81
  33
  38
  43
  48
  54
  59
  64
  69
  75
  80
  86
  92
  98
  104
  110
  117
  124
  131
  138
  146
  154
  162
  171
  180
  190
  200
  210
  221
  233
  245
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  36
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -115
  -119
  -124
  -129
  -134
  -140
  -146
  -152
  -159
  -167
  -174
  -183
  -191
  -201
  -210
  -220
  -231
  -243
  -255
  -267
  -280
  -294
  -309
  -325
  -341
  -358
  -376
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  111
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  41
  -69
  -67
  -66
  -65
  -65
  -64
  -64
  -65
  -66
  -66
  -68
  -69
  -71
  -73
  -75
  -77
  -80
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -125
  -131
Discount rate, %
 
  11.80
  12.39
  13.01
  13.66
  14.34
  15.06
  15.81
  16.60
  17.43
  18.31
  19.22
  20.18
  21.19
  22.25
  23.36
  24.53
  25.76
  27.05
  28.40
  29.82
  31.31
  32.87
  34.52
  36.24
  38.06
  39.96
  41.96
  44.05
  46.26
  48.57
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  37
  -55
  -47
  -40
  -33
  -28
  -23
  -19
  -15
  -12
  -10
  -7
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  70.1
  48.7
  33.8
  23.4
  16.1
  11.1
  7.6
  5.2
  3.5
  2.4
  1.6
  1.1
  0.8
  0.5
  0.3
  0.2
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

RAIT Financial Trust (RAIT) is a real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company focuses on providing commercial real estate (CRE) financing throughout the United States. The core of its business is a full service CRE lending platform focused on first lien loans. It offers customized lending solutions to meet borrower needs and internal credit goals. It offers personalized middle-market financing solutions and a complement of lending products for CRE. The Company may also offer mezzanine loans and preferred equity interests in limited circumstances to support first lien loans. It is engaged in floating rate securitization programs and has access to multiple sources of funding, including senior debt, convertible securities, preferred securities and common securities. The Company also owns and manages a portfolio of CRE properties, and manages real estate assets for third parties. The Company is engaged in lending, owning and managing CRE assets throughout the United States.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  RAIT Financial Trust (RAS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 2
Price to Sales 0.2
Price to Book 0.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 0.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -13.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -42.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -16.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 385.7%
Total Debt to Equity 385.7%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -0%
Return On Total Capital 1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.6%
Return On Equity 5.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -12.9%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 51.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 57.5%
EBITDA Margin 67.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.3%
Operating Margin -39.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -36%
Pre-Tax Margin -16.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -37.8%
Net Profit Margin 12%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -26.4%
Effective Tax Rate -8.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.5%
Payout Ratio 232%

RAS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the RAS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $209 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by RAIT Financial Trust. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of RAIT Financial Trust. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our RAS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 11.8%, whose default value for RAS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of RAIT Financial Trust, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of RAIT Financial Trust.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of RAS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 106.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for RAS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.7% for RAIT Financial Trust.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for RAIT Financial Trust. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the RAS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for RAS are equal to 419.1%.

Life of production assets of 11.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in RAIT Financial Trust operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for RAS is equal to -53.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $454 million for RAIT Financial Trust - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 93.112 million for RAIT Financial Trust is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of RAIT Financial Trust at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ RAIT Financial reports 2Q loss   [Aug-08-17 06:05PM  Associated Press]
▶ LD Micro Index Reconstitution as of August 1, 2017   [Aug-01-17 09:40AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ RAIT Financial reports 1Q loss   [May-03-17 08:12AM  Associated Press]
▶ RAIT Financial posts 4Q profit   [09:51AM  Associated Press]
▶ How RAIT Financial Trust (RAS) Stacks Up Against Its Peers   [Dec-12-16 11:54PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ RAIT Comments On 13D Filing By Highland Capital Management   [Nov-11-16 04:15PM  Business Wire]
Financial statements of RAS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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