Intrinsic value of Raven Industries - RAVN

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$31.00

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$31.00

 
Intrinsic value

$1.79

 
Up/down potential

-94%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of RAVN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.36
  30.20
  27.68
  25.41
  23.37
  21.53
  19.88
  18.39
  17.05
  15.85
  14.76
  13.79
  12.91
  12.12
  11.41
  10.76
  10.19
  9.67
  9.20
  8.78
  8.40
  8.06
  7.76
  7.48
  7.23
  7.01
  6.81
  6.63
  6.47
  6.32
  6.19
Revenue, $m
  277
  361
  460
  578
  712
  866
  1,038
  1,229
  1,439
  1,666
  1,913
  2,176
  2,457
  2,755
  3,069
  3,399
  3,746
  4,108
  4,486
  4,880
  5,290
  5,717
  6,160
  6,621
  7,100
  7,598
  8,115
  8,653
  9,212
  9,794
  10,400
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  356
  454
  569
  702
  854
  1,023
  1,212
  1,418
  1,643
  1,886
  2,146
  2,423
  2,716
  3,026
  3,352
  3,693
  4,050
  4,423
  4,812
  5,216
  5,637
  6,074
  6,528
  7,001
  7,491
  8,001
  8,532
  9,083
  9,657
  10,255
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  249
  356
  454
  569
  702
  854
  1,023
  1,212
  1,418
  1,643
  1,886
  2,146
  2,423
  2,716
  3,026
  3,352
  3,693
  4,050
  4,423
  4,812
  5,216
  5,637
  6,074
  6,528
  7,001
  7,491
  8,001
  8,532
  9,083
  9,657
  10,255
Operating income, $m
  28
  5
  6
  8
  10
  12
  15
  17
  20
  23
  27
  30
  34
  39
  43
  48
  52
  58
  63
  68
  74
  80
  86
  93
  99
  106
  114
  121
  129
  137
  146
EBITDA, $m
  43
  21
  27
  34
  41
  50
  60
  72
  84
  97
  111
  127
  143
  160
  179
  198
  218
  239
  261
  284
  308
  333
  358
  385
  413
  442
  472
  504
  536
  570
  605
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  32
  34
  37
  40
  42
  45
  48
  52
Earnings before tax, $m
  28
  5
  6
  7
  8
  10
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  22
  24
  27
  30
  32
  36
  39
  42
  46
  49
  53
  57
  61
  65
  69
  74
  79
  84
  89
  94
Tax expense, $m
  8
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
Net income, $m
  20
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  10
  11
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  31
  33
  36
  39
  41
  44
  47
  51
  54
  57
  61
  65
  69

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  51
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  302
  327
  417
  523
  645
  784
  940
  1,113
  1,303
  1,510
  1,732
  1,971
  2,226
  2,495
  2,780
  3,079
  3,393
  3,721
  4,063
  4,420
  4,792
  5,178
  5,580
  5,997
  6,431
  6,882
  7,351
  7,838
  8,344
  8,872
  9,421
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  251
  327
  417
  523
  645
  784
  940
  1,113
  1,303
  1,510
  1,732
  1,971
  2,226
  2,495
  2,780
  3,079
  3,393
  3,721
  4,063
  4,420
  4,792
  5,178
  5,580
  5,997
  6,431
  6,882
  7,351
  7,838
  8,344
  8,872
  9,421
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.104
  1.104
  1.103
  1.105
  1.104
  1.105
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.103
  1.105
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
Average production assets, $m
  91
  118
  151
  189
  233
  283
  339
  402
  470
  545
  625
  712
  803
  901
  1,004
  1,112
  1,225
  1,343
  1,467
  1,596
  1,730
  1,869
  2,014
  2,165
  2,322
  2,484
  2,654
  2,829
  3,012
  3,203
  3,401
Working capital, $m
  111
  78
  100
  125
  155
  188
  225
  267
  312
  362
  415
  472
  533
  598
  666
  738
  813
  891
  973
  1,059
  1,148
  1,241
  1,337
  1,437
  1,541
  1,649
  1,761
  1,878
  1,999
  2,125
  2,257
Total debt, $m
  0
  13
  28
  46
  67
  91
  118
  147
  180
  215
  253
  294
  338
  384
  432
  484
  537
  593
  652
  713
  776
  842
  911
  983
  1,057
  1,134
  1,214
  1,297
  1,384
  1,474
  1,568
Total liabilities, $m
  42
  56
  71
  89
  110
  134
  161
  190
  223
  258
  296
  337
  381
  427
  475
  527
  580
  636
  695
  756
  819
  885
  954
  1,026
  1,100
  1,177
  1,257
  1,340
  1,427
  1,517
  1,611
Total equity, $m
  259
  271
  346
  434
  535
  650
  779
  923
  1,080
  1,251
  1,436
  1,634
  1,845
  2,069
  2,305
  2,553
  2,813
  3,085
  3,369
  3,664
  3,972
  4,293
  4,626
  4,972
  5,331
  5,705
  6,094
  6,497
  6,918
  7,355
  7,810
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  301
  327
  417
  523
  645
  784
  940
  1,113
  1,303
  1,509
  1,732
  1,971
  2,226
  2,496
  2,780
  3,080
  3,393
  3,721
  4,064
  4,420
  4,791
  5,178
  5,580
  5,998
  6,431
  6,882
  7,351
  7,837
  8,345
  8,872
  9,421
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.050
  0.080
  0.110
  0.130
  0.140
  0.150
  0.160
  0.170
  0.170
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  20
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  10
  11
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  31
  33
  36
  39
  41
  44
  47
  51
  54
  57
  61
  65
  69
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  15
  16
  20
  26
  31
  38
  46
  54
  64
  74
  85
  96
  109
  122
  136
  150
  166
  182
  198
  216
  234
  253
  272
  293
  314
  336
  359
  382
  407
  433
  460
Funds from operations, $m
  62
  20
  25
  31
  38
  45
  54
  64
  75
  86
  99
  112
  126
  141
  157
  174
  191
  210
  229
  249
  270
  291
  314
  337
  361
  386
  413
  440
  468
  498
  528
Change in working capital, $m
  13
  18
  22
  25
  29
  33
  37
  41
  45
  49
  53
  57
  61
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  82
  85
  89
  93
  96
  100
  104
  108
  112
  117
  121
  126
  131
Cash from operations, $m
  49
  -36
  3
  5
  8
  12
  17
  22
  29
  37
  45
  55
  65
  77
  89
  102
  116
  131
  147
  163
  181
  199
  217
  237
  257
  278
  300
  323
  347
  371
  397
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -12
  -16
  -20
  -26
  -31
  -38
  -46
  -54
  -64
  -74
  -85
  -96
  -109
  -122
  -136
  -150
  -166
  -182
  -198
  -216
  -234
  -253
  -272
  -293
  -314
  -336
  -359
  -382
  -407
  -433
New CAPEX, $m
  -5
  -27
  -33
  -38
  -44
  -50
  -56
  -62
  -69
  -75
  -80
  -86
  -92
  -97
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -129
  -134
  -139
  -145
  -151
  -157
  -163
  -169
  -176
  -183
  -190
  -198
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -5
  -39
  -49
  -58
  -70
  -81
  -94
  -108
  -123
  -139
  -154
  -171
  -188
  -206
  -225
  -244
  -263
  -284
  -306
  -327
  -350
  -373
  -398
  -423
  -450
  -477
  -505
  -535
  -565
  -597
  -631
Free cash flow, $m
  44
  -76
  -46
  -53
  -61
  -70
  -78
  -86
  -94
  -102
  -109
  -116
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -141
  -147
  -153
  -158
  -164
  -169
  -175
  -180
  -186
  -192
  -198
  -205
  -211
  -219
  -226
  -234
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  13
  15
  18
  21
  24
  27
  30
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  87
  90
  94
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -8
  75
  105
  123
  142
  161
  180
  200
  219
  237
  256
  273
  290
  307
  323
  338
  354
  369
  384
  399
  414
  429
  445
  461
  477
  495
  513
  532
  552
  573
  595
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -8
  88
  120
  141
  163
  185
  207
  230
  251
  272
  294
  314
  334
  353
  372
  389
  408
  425
  443
  460
  478
  495
  514
  532
  551
  572
  593
  615
  639
  663
  689
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  36
  -63
  -30
  -35
  -40
  -46
  -51
  -56
  -61
  -66
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -90
  -94
  -97
  -100
  -103
  -106
  -109
  -112
  -115
  -118
  -121
  -124
  -128
  -132
  -136
  -140
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  5
  -63
  -75
  -88
  -101
  -115
  -129
  -143
  -157
  -171
  -185
  -198
  -211
  -224
  -236
  -248
  -260
  -272
  -284
  -296
  -308
  -320
  -333
  -346
  -360
  -374
  -388
  -404
  -420
  -437
  -455
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  51
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  92.3
  84.7
  78.3
  72.8
  68.1
  64.0
  60.4
  57.3
  54.5
  52.0
  49.8
  47.9
  46.1
  44.5
  43.0
  41.7
  40.5
  39.3
  38.3
  37.3
  36.4
  35.6
  34.8
  34.0
  33.3
  32.6
  32.0
  31.4
  30.8
  30.2

Raven Industries, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides various products to customers in the industrial, agricultural, energy, construction, and defense/aerospace markets worldwide. It operates in three segments: Applied Technology, Engineered Films, and Aerostar. The Applied Technology segment designs, manufactures, sells, and services precision agriculture products and information management tools that enable growers to enhance farm yields. Its products include field computers, application controls, GPS-guidance and assisted-steering systems, automatic boom controls, yield monitoring planter controls, seeder and harvest controls, and motor controls, as well as Slingshot, an integrated RTK and information platform. This segment sells its products to original equipment manufacturers and through aftermarket distribution. The Engineered Films segment produces plastic films and sheeting for energy, agricultural, construction, geomembrane, and industrial applications. This segment sells plastic sheeting to independent third-party distributors. The Aerostar segment designs and manufactures high-altitude balloons, tethered aerostats, and radar processing systems to provide research, communications, and situational awareness to government and commercial customers. The company was founded in 1956 and is headquartered in Sioux Falls, South Dakota.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Raven Industries (RAVN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 55.9
Price to Sales 4
Price to Book 4.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 22.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 25.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -61.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -30.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Return On Total Capital 7.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Return On Equity 7.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 28.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.1%
EBITDA Margin 15.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.4%
Operating Margin 10.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 10.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Net Profit Margin 7.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Effective Tax Rate 28.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.3%
Payout Ratio 95%

RAVN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the RAVN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $277 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Raven Industries. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Raven Industries. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our RAVN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 30.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for RAVN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Raven Industries, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Raven Industries.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of RAVN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 98.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for RAVN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Raven Industries.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Raven Industries. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the RAVN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for RAVN are equal to 32.7%.

Life of production assets of 7.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Raven Industries operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for RAVN is equal to 21.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $259 million for Raven Industries - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 36.145 million for Raven Industries is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Raven Industries at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.1 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Raven Industries Manufactures Another Solid Quarter   [Mar-27-17 08:34PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Raven Industries posts 4Q profit   [06:24PM  Associated Press]
▶ Raven Industries Executive Named University President   [Feb-22-17 06:25PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Raven Industries Gets Back on Track   [Feb-21-17 10:00PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Raven Industries Provides Update on Filing Timeline   [Feb-02-17 05:44PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ What Hedge Funds Think about Raven Industries, Inc. (RAVN)?   [Dec-08-16 04:00PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ [$$] Don't Bet the Farm on Raven Industries Stock   [Sep-08-16 07:10AM  at Barrons.com]
▶ Raven Industries Inc. Keeps Improving   [Aug-23-16 04:25PM  at Motley Fool]
Stock chart of RAVN Financial statements of RAVN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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