Intrinsic value of Raven Industries - RAVN

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$35.00

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$35.00

 
Intrinsic value

$1.58

 
Up/down potential

-95%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of RAVN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.36
  38.20
  34.88
  31.89
  29.20
  26.78
  24.60
  22.64
  20.88
  19.29
  17.86
  16.58
  15.42
  14.38
  13.44
  12.60
  11.84
  11.15
  10.54
  9.98
  9.48
  9.04
  8.63
  8.27
  7.94
  7.65
  7.38
  7.15
  6.93
  6.74
  6.56
Revenue, $m
  277
  383
  516
  681
  880
  1,116
  1,390
  1,705
  2,061
  2,458
  2,897
  3,378
  3,898
  4,459
  5,058
  5,695
  6,369
  7,080
  7,825
  8,607
  9,423
  10,275
  11,161
  12,084
  13,044
  14,042
  15,079
  16,156
  17,276
  18,440
  19,650
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  376
  506
  665
  859
  1,088
  1,354
  1,660
  2,005
  2,392
  2,818
  3,280
  3,786
  4,330
  4,912
  5,531
  6,186
  6,876
  7,600
  8,359
  9,152
  9,979
  10,840
  11,736
  12,669
  13,638
  14,644
  15,691
  16,778
  17,909
  19,084
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  249
  376
  506
  665
  859
  1,088
  1,354
  1,660
  2,005
  2,392
  2,818
  3,280
  3,786
  4,330
  4,912
  5,531
  6,186
  6,876
  7,600
  8,359
  9,152
  9,979
  10,840
  11,736
  12,669
  13,638
  14,644
  15,691
  16,778
  17,909
  19,084
Operating income, $m
  28
  7
  11
  16
  21
  28
  36
  45
  55
  67
  79
  97
  112
  128
  146
  164
  183
  204
  225
  248
  271
  296
  321
  348
  376
  404
  434
  465
  498
  531
  566
EBITDA, $m
  43
  27
  36
  47
  61
  78
  97
  119
  143
  171
  201
  235
  271
  310
  352
  396
  443
  492
  544
  598
  655
  714
  776
  840
  907
  976
  1,049
  1,123
  1,201
  1,282
  1,366
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  5
  6
  8
  10
  12
  14
  17
  20
  23
  26
  29
  33
  37
  41
  45
  50
  54
  59
  64
  69
  75
  80
  86
  92
  98
Earnings before tax, $m
  28
  7
  10
  14
  19
  25
  31
  39
  48
  57
  68
  83
  95
  109
  123
  138
  154
  171
  189
  207
  226
  246
  267
  289
  312
  335
  360
  385
  411
  439
  467
Tax expense, $m
  8
  2
  3
  4
  5
  7
  8
  11
  13
  15
  18
  22
  26
  29
  33
  37
  42
  46
  51
  56
  61
  67
  72
  78
  84
  91
  97
  104
  111
  119
  126
Net income, $m
  20
  5
  7
  10
  14
  18
  23
  28
  35
  42
  49
  61
  70
  79
  90
  101
  112
  125
  138
  151
  165
  180
  195
  211
  228
  245
  263
  281
  300
  320
  341

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  51
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  302
  347
  468
  617
  797
  1,010
  1,259
  1,544
  1,867
  2,227
  2,624
  3,059
  3,531
  4,039
  4,582
  5,159
  5,769
  6,413
  7,088
  7,796
  8,535
  9,307
  10,110
  10,946
  11,815
  12,719
  13,658
  14,634
  15,648
  16,703
  17,799
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  251
  347
  468
  617
  797
  1,010
  1,259
  1,544
  1,867
  2,227
  2,624
  3,059
  3,531
  4,039
  4,582
  5,159
  5,769
  6,413
  7,088
  7,796
  8,535
  9,307
  10,110
  10,946
  11,815
  12,719
  13,658
  14,634
  15,648
  16,703
  17,799
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.104
  1.104
  1.103
  1.104
  1.104
  1.105
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
Average production assets, $m
  123
  170
  229
  302
  391
  495
  617
  757
  915
  1,091
  1,286
  1,500
  1,731
  1,980
  2,246
  2,529
  2,828
  3,143
  3,475
  3,821
  4,184
  4,562
  4,956
  5,366
  5,792
  6,235
  6,695
  7,173
  7,670
  8,187
  8,725
Working capital, $m
  111
  83
  112
  148
  191
  242
  302
  370
  447
  533
  629
  733
  846
  968
  1,098
  1,236
  1,382
  1,536
  1,698
  1,868
  2,045
  2,230
  2,422
  2,622
  2,831
  3,047
  3,272
  3,506
  3,749
  4,001
  4,264
Total debt, $m
  0
  16
  37
  62
  93
  130
  172
  221
  276
  338
  406
  480
  561
  648
  740
  839
  944
  1,054
  1,169
  1,290
  1,417
  1,548
  1,686
  1,829
  1,977
  2,132
  2,293
  2,459
  2,633
  2,813
  3,001
Total liabilities, $m
  42
  59
  80
  105
  136
  173
  215
  264
  319
  381
  449
  523
  604
  691
  783
  882
  987
  1,097
  1,212
  1,333
  1,460
  1,591
  1,729
  1,872
  2,020
  2,175
  2,336
  2,502
  2,676
  2,856
  3,044
Total equity, $m
  259
  287
  388
  511
  661
  838
  1,044
  1,280
  1,547
  1,846
  2,176
  2,536
  2,927
  3,348
  3,798
  4,277
  4,783
  5,316
  5,876
  6,463
  7,076
  7,715
  8,381
  9,074
  9,795
  10,544
  11,323
  12,132
  12,973
  13,847
  14,755
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  301
  346
  468
  616
  797
  1,011
  1,259
  1,544
  1,866
  2,227
  2,625
  3,059
  3,531
  4,039
  4,581
  5,159
  5,770
  6,413
  7,088
  7,796
  8,536
  9,306
  10,110
  10,946
  11,815
  12,719
  13,659
  14,634
  15,649
  16,703
  17,799
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.060
  0.100
  0.120
  0.140
  0.150
  0.170
  0.170
  0.180
  0.180
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  20
  5
  7
  10
  14
  18
  23
  28
  35
  42
  49
  61
  70
  79
  90
  101
  112
  125
  138
  151
  165
  180
  195
  211
  228
  245
  263
  281
  300
  320
  341
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  15
  20
  25
  32
  40
  50
  61
  74
  88
  104
  122
  138
  159
  182
  206
  232
  259
  288
  319
  351
  384
  419
  455
  492
  531
  572
  614
  658
  704
  751
  800
Funds from operations, $m
  58
  25
  33
  42
  54
  68
  84
  102
  123
  146
  171
  198
  228
  261
  296
  333
  372
  413
  456
  502
  549
  598
  650
  703
  759
  817
  877
  939
  1,004
  1,072
  1,142
Change in working capital, $m
  9
  23
  29
  36
  43
  51
  60
  68
  77
  86
  95
  104
  113
  122
  130
  138
  146
  154
  162
  170
  177
  185
  192
  200
  208
  216
  225
  234
  243
  253
  263
Cash from operations, $m
  49
  -3
  4
  6
  11
  16
  24
  34
  45
  60
  76
  94
  115
  139
  166
  195
  226
  259
  295
  332
  372
  414
  457
  503
  551
  600
  652
  705
  761
  819
  879
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -11
  -16
  -21
  -28
  -36
  -45
  -57
  -69
  -84
  -100
  -118
  -138
  -159
  -182
  -206
  -232
  -259
  -288
  -319
  -351
  -384
  -419
  -455
  -492
  -531
  -572
  -614
  -658
  -704
  -751
New CAPEX, $m
  -5
  -47
  -59
  -73
  -88
  -105
  -122
  -140
  -158
  -177
  -195
  -213
  -231
  -249
  -266
  -283
  -299
  -315
  -331
  -347
  -362
  -378
  -394
  -410
  -426
  -443
  -460
  -478
  -497
  -517
  -537
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -5
  -58
  -75
  -94
  -116
  -141
  -167
  -197
  -227
  -261
  -295
  -331
  -369
  -408
  -448
  -489
  -531
  -574
  -619
  -666
  -713
  -762
  -813
  -865
  -918
  -974
  -1,032
  -1,092
  -1,155
  -1,221
  -1,288
Free cash flow, $m
  44
  -61
  -71
  -88
  -105
  -124
  -143
  -163
  -182
  -201
  -219
  -237
  -253
  -268
  -282
  -294
  -306
  -316
  -325
  -333
  -341
  -348
  -355
  -361
  -368
  -374
  -381
  -387
  -394
  -402
  -409
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  16
  21
  26
  31
  37
  43
  49
  55
  62
  68
  74
  81
  87
  93
  99
  104
  110
  116
  121
  126
  132
  137
  143
  149
  155
  161
  167
  173
  180
  187
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -8
  74
  151
  186
  224
  264
  307
  350
  394
  438
  481
  523
  564
  602
  639
  674
  707
  739
  770
  799
  828
  856
  884
  912
  940
  969
  998
  1,029
  1,061
  1,095
  1,131
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -8
  90
  172
  212
  255
  301
  350
  399
  449
  500
  549
  597
  645
  689
  732
  773
  811
  849
  886
  920
  954
  988
  1,021
  1,055
  1,089
  1,124
  1,159
  1,196
  1,234
  1,275
  1,318
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  36
  -45
  -51
  -62
  -75
  -87
  -101
  -114
  -127
  -139
  -151
  -163
  -173
  -181
  -189
  -196
  -201
  -206
  -210
  -212
  -215
  -216
  -218
  -219
  -219
  -220
  -220
  -220
  -221
  -221
  -222
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  5
  -79
  -100
  -124
  -149
  -177
  -206
  -236
  -267
  -299
  -330
  -361
  -391
  -421
  -450
  -478
  -506
  -533
  -560
  -587
  -613
  -639
  -666
  -693
  -721
  -749
  -779
  -809
  -841
  -874
  -909
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  51
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  93.0
  83.6
  75.8
  69.3
  63.8
  59.2
  55.2
  51.8
  48.9
  46.3
  44.0
  42.0
  40.2
  38.7
  37.2
  36.0
  34.8
  33.8
  32.8
  31.9
  31.1
  30.4
  29.7
  29.1
  28.4
  27.9
  27.4
  26.8
  26.4
  25.9

Raven Industries, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides various products to customers in the industrial, agricultural, energy, construction, and defense/aerospace markets worldwide. It operates in three segments: Applied Technology, Engineered Films, and Aerostar. The Applied Technology segment designs, manufactures, sells, and services precision agriculture products and information management tools that enable growers to enhance farm yields. Its products include field computers, application controls, GPS-guidance and assisted-steering systems, automatic boom controls, yield monitoring planter controls, seeder and harvest controls, and motor controls, as well as Slingshot, an integrated RTK and information platform. This segment sells its products to original equipment manufacturers and through aftermarket distribution. The Engineered Films segment produces plastic films and sheeting for energy, agricultural, construction, geomembrane, and industrial applications. This segment sells plastic sheeting to independent third-party distributors. The Aerostar segment designs and manufactures high-altitude balloons, tethered aerostats, and radar processing systems to provide research, communications, and situational awareness to government and commercial customers. The company was founded in 1956 and is headquartered in Sioux Falls, South Dakota.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Raven Industries (RAVN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 63.1
Price to Sales 4.6
Price to Book 4.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 25.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 28.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -61.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -30.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Return On Total Capital 7.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Return On Equity 7.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 28.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.1%
EBITDA Margin 15.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.4%
Operating Margin 10.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 10.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Net Profit Margin 7.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Effective Tax Rate 28.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.3%
Payout Ratio 95%

RAVN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the RAVN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $277 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Raven Industries. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Raven Industries. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our RAVN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 38.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for RAVN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Raven Industries, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Raven Industries.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of RAVN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 98.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for RAVN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Raven Industries.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Raven Industries. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the RAVN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for RAVN are equal to 44.4%.

Life of production assets of 10.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Raven Industries operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for RAVN is equal to 21.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $259 million for Raven Industries - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 34.571 million for Raven Industries is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Raven Industries at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.2 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Raven Industries Starts Its New Fiscal Year With a Win   [May-22-17 10:25PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Raven Industries posts 1Q profit   [06:06PM  Associated Press]
▶ Raven Industries Manufactures Another Solid Quarter   [Mar-27-17 08:34PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Raven Industries posts 4Q profit   [06:24PM  Associated Press]
▶ Raven Industries Executive Named University President   [Feb-22-17 06:25PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Raven Industries Gets Back on Track   [Feb-21-17 10:00PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Raven Industries Provides Update on Filing Timeline   [Feb-02-17 05:44PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ What Hedge Funds Think about Raven Industries, Inc. (RAVN)?   [Dec-08-16 04:00PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ [$$] Don't Bet the Farm on Raven Industries Stock   [Sep-08-16 07:10AM  at Barrons.com]
▶ Raven Industries Inc. Keeps Improving   [Aug-23-16 04:25PM  at Motley Fool]
Stock chart of RAVN Financial statements of RAVN Annual reports of RAVN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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