Intrinsic value of Raven Industries - RAVN

Previous Close

$30.85

  Intrinsic Value

$1.64

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-95%

  Value-price divergence*

-44%

Previous close

$30.85

 
Intrinsic value

$1.64

 
Up/down potential

-95%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-44%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of RAVN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.36
  27.90
  25.61
  23.55
  21.69
  20.02
  18.52
  17.17
  15.95
  14.86
  13.87
  12.98
  12.19
  11.47
  10.82
  10.24
  9.71
  9.24
  8.82
  8.44
  8.09
  7.78
  7.51
  7.26
  7.03
  6.83
  6.64
  6.48
  6.33
  6.20
  6.08
Revenue, $m
  277
  354
  445
  550
  669
  803
  952
  1,115
  1,293
  1,485
  1,691
  1,911
  2,144
  2,390
  2,648
  2,919
  3,203
  3,499
  3,808
  4,129
  4,463
  4,811
  5,172
  5,547
  5,937
  6,342
  6,763
  7,202
  7,658
  8,132
  8,627
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  348
  436
  538
  654
  784
  929
  1,087
  1,260
  1,447
  1,647
  1,856
  2,082
  2,321
  2,572
  2,835
  3,111
  3,398
  3,698
  4,010
  4,335
  4,672
  5,023
  5,387
  5,766
  6,159
  6,569
  6,994
  7,437
  7,898
  8,378
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  249
  348
  436
  538
  654
  784
  929
  1,087
  1,260
  1,447
  1,647
  1,856
  2,082
  2,321
  2,572
  2,835
  3,111
  3,398
  3,698
  4,010
  4,335
  4,672
  5,023
  5,387
  5,766
  6,159
  6,569
  6,994
  7,437
  7,898
  8,378
Operating income, $m
  28
  6
  9
  12
  15
  19
  23
  28
  33
  39
  45
  55
  62
  69
  76
  84
  92
  101
  110
  119
  129
  139
  149
  160
  171
  183
  195
  207
  221
  234
  248
EBITDA, $m
  43
  25
  31
  38
  47
  56
  66
  78
  90
  103
  118
  133
  149
  166
  184
  203
  223
  243
  265
  287
  310
  335
  360
  386
  413
  441
  470
  501
  532
  565
  600
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  43
Earnings before tax, $m
  28
  6
  8
  11
  14
  17
  20
  24
  29
  33
  38
  47
  53
  59
  65
  71
  78
  85
  92
  100
  108
  116
  124
  133
  142
  152
  162
  172
  183
  194
  206
Tax expense, $m
  8
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  13
  14
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  34
  36
  38
  41
  44
  47
  49
  52
  56
Net income, $m
  20
  4
  6
  8
  10
  12
  15
  18
  21
  24
  28
  35
  39
  43
  47
  52
  57
  62
  67
  73
  79
  85
  91
  97
  104
  111
  118
  126
  134
  142
  150

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  51
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  302
  321
  403
  498
  606
  727
  862
  1,010
  1,171
  1,345
  1,532
  1,731
  1,942
  2,165
  2,399
  2,644
  2,901
  3,169
  3,449
  3,740
  4,043
  4,357
  4,684
  5,024
  5,377
  5,745
  6,126
  6,523
  6,936
  7,366
  7,814
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  251
  321
  403
  498
  606
  727
  862
  1,010
  1,171
  1,345
  1,532
  1,731
  1,942
  2,165
  2,399
  2,644
  2,901
  3,169
  3,449
  3,740
  4,043
  4,357
  4,684
  5,024
  5,377
  5,745
  6,126
  6,523
  6,936
  7,366
  7,814
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.104
  1.103
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.105
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
  1.104
Average production assets, $m
  123
  157
  198
  244
  297
  357
  423
  495
  574
  659
  751
  848
  952
  1,061
  1,176
  1,296
  1,422
  1,554
  1,691
  1,833
  1,982
  2,136
  2,296
  2,463
  2,636
  2,816
  3,003
  3,197
  3,400
  3,611
  3,830
Working capital, $m
  111
  77
  97
  119
  145
  174
  207
  242
  281
  322
  367
  415
  465
  519
  575
  634
  695
  759
  826
  896
  968
  1,044
  1,122
  1,204
  1,288
  1,376
  1,468
  1,563
  1,662
  1,765
  1,872
Total debt, $m
  0
  12
  26
  42
  61
  81
  104
  130
  157
  187
  219
  253
  289
  327
  367
  409
  453
  499
  547
  597
  648
  702
  758
  816
  877
  939
  1,005
  1,072
  1,143
  1,217
  1,293
Total liabilities, $m
  42
  55
  69
  85
  104
  124
  147
  173
  200
  230
  262
  296
  332
  370
  410
  452
  496
  542
  590
  640
  691
  745
  801
  859
  920
  982
  1,048
  1,115
  1,186
  1,260
  1,336
Total equity, $m
  259
  266
  334
  413
  502
  603
  715
  837
  971
  1,115
  1,270
  1,435
  1,610
  1,794
  1,989
  2,192
  2,405
  2,627
  2,859
  3,100
  3,351
  3,612
  3,883
  4,165
  4,458
  4,762
  5,079
  5,408
  5,750
  6,107
  6,478
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  301
  321
  403
  498
  606
  727
  862
  1,010
  1,171
  1,345
  1,532
  1,731
  1,942
  2,164
  2,399
  2,644
  2,901
  3,169
  3,449
  3,740
  4,042
  4,357
  4,684
  5,024
  5,378
  5,744
  6,127
  6,523
  6,936
  7,367
  7,814
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.040
  0.080
  0.100
  0.120
  0.130
  0.150
  0.150
  0.160
  0.170
  0.170
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829
  0.829

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  20
  4
  6
  8
  10
  12
  15
  18
  21
  24
  28
  35
  39
  43
  47
  52
  57
  62
  67
  73
  79
  85
  91
  97
  104
  111
  118
  126
  134
  142
  150
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  15
  19
  22
  26
  31
  37
  43
  50
  57
  65
  73
  78
  87
  97
  108
  119
  130
  143
  155
  168
  182
  196
  211
  226
  242
  258
  275
  293
  312
  331
  351
Funds from operations, $m
  58
  23
  28
  34
  41
  49
  58
  67
  78
  89
  101
  112
  126
  140
  155
  171
  187
  205
  222
  241
  260
  281
  301
  323
  346
  369
  394
  419
  446
  473
  502
Change in working capital, $m
  9
  17
  20
  23
  26
  29
  32
  35
  39
  42
  45
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  75
  78
  81
  85
  88
  91
  95
  99
  103
  107
Cash from operations, $m
  49
  6
  9
  12
  15
  20
  26
  32
  39
  47
  56
  65
  75
  87
  99
  112
  126
  140
  155
  171
  188
  205
  223
  242
  261
  281
  302
  324
  347
  370
  394
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -11
  -14
  -18
  -22
  -27
  -33
  -39
  -45
  -53
  -61
  -69
  -78
  -87
  -97
  -108
  -119
  -130
  -143
  -155
  -168
  -182
  -196
  -211
  -226
  -242
  -258
  -275
  -293
  -312
  -331
New CAPEX, $m
  -5
  -34
  -40
  -47
  -53
  -59
  -66
  -73
  -79
  -85
  -91
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -131
  -137
  -143
  -148
  -154
  -160
  -167
  -173
  -180
  -187
  -195
  -202
  -211
  -219
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -5
  -45
  -54
  -65
  -75
  -86
  -99
  -112
  -124
  -138
  -152
  -167
  -181
  -196
  -212
  -228
  -245
  -261
  -280
  -298
  -316
  -336
  -356
  -378
  -399
  -422
  -445
  -470
  -495
  -523
  -550
Free cash flow, $m
  44
  -39
  -46
  -53
  -60
  -67
  -73
  -79
  -85
  -91
  -96
  -102
  -106
  -110
  -113
  -116
  -119
  -122
  -124
  -126
  -129
  -131
  -133
  -135
  -138
  -140
  -143
  -146
  -149
  -153
  -156
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  12
  14
  16
  18
  21
  23
  25
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -8
  54
  62
  71
  80
  88
  97
  105
  113
  120
  127
  130
  136
  142
  147
  152
  156
  160
  164
  168
  172
  176
  180
  184
  189
  193
  198
  203
  209
  215
  221
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -8
  66
  76
  87
  98
  109
  120
  130
  141
  150
  159
  164
  172
  180
  187
  194
  200
  206
  212
  218
  224
  230
  236
  242
  249
  256
  263
  271
  280
  289
  298
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  36
  26
  30
  34
  38
  42
  47
  51
  55
  59
  63
  63
  66
  70
  74
  77
  81
  85
  88
  92
  95
  99
  103
  107
  111
  116
  120
  125
  130
  136
  141
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  5
  -58
  -68
  -79
  -90
  -101
  -112
  -123
  -134
  -144
  -155
  -165
  -175
  -185
  -194
  -204
  -213
  -222
  -232
  -241
  -251
  -261
  -271
  -282
  -293
  -304
  -316
  -329
  -342
  -356
  -371
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  51
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  19
  -38
  -45
  -51
  -58
  -65
  -72
  -79
  -85
  -92
  -102
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -144
  -150
  -156
  -162
  -168
  -175
  -181
  -189
  -196
  -204
  -212
  -221
  -230
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  18
  -35
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -49
  -49
  -48
  -49
  -46
  -44
  -40
  -37
  -34
  -30
  -26
  -23
  -20
  -17
  -14
  -11
  -9
  -7
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  93.9
  88.6
  84.1
  80.2
  76.8
  73.8
  71.2
  68.8
  66.7
  64.9
  63.2
  61.7
  60.4
  59.2
  58.1
  57.0
  56.1
  55.2
  54.4
  53.6
  52.9
  52.3
  51.7
  51.1
  50.5
  50.0
  49.5
  49.0
  48.5
  48.1

Raven Industries, Inc. is a diversified technology company providing a range of products to customers within the industrial, agricultural, energy, construction and defense markets. The Company operates through three segments: Applied Technology Division (Applied Technology), Engineered Films Division (Engineered Films) and Aerostar Division (Aerostar). The Applied Technology segment designs, manufactures, sells and services precision agriculture products and information management tools for growers. The Engineered Films segment produces plastic films and sheeting for energy, agricultural, construction, geomembrane and industrial applications. The Aerostar segment designs and manufactures products, including balloons, tethered aerostats and radar processing systems. It conducts business through its subsidiaries, including Aerostar International, Inc. (Aerostar), Vista Research, Inc. (Vista), Raven International Holding Company BV (Raven Holdings) and Raven Industries Canada, Inc.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Raven Industries (RAVN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 55.7
Price to Sales 4
Price to Book 4.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 22.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 25.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -61.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -30.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Return On Total Capital 7.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Return On Equity 7.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 28.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.1%
EBITDA Margin 15.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.4%
Operating Margin 10.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 10.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Net Profit Margin 7.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Effective Tax Rate 28.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.3%
Payout Ratio 95%

RAVN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the RAVN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $277 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Raven Industries. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Raven Industries. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our RAVN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 27.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for RAVN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Raven Industries, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Raven Industries.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of RAVN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 98.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for RAVN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Raven Industries.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Raven Industries. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the RAVN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for RAVN are equal to 44.4%.

Life of production assets of 10.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Raven Industries operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for RAVN is equal to 21.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $259 million for Raven Industries - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 33.179 million for Raven Industries is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Raven Industries at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Raven Industries beats 2Q profit forecasts   [Aug-23-17 09:41PM  Associated Press]
▶ Raven Releases Two New Innovations   [12:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Which Companies Are Now Outperforming 95% Of All Stocks?   [Jun-17-17 06:28PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Farming Stock And Deere Rival With 140% Growth Plows Ahead   [Jun-13-17 04:32PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Raven Industries Starts Its New Fiscal Year With a Win   [May-22-17 10:25PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Raven Industries posts 1Q profit   [06:06PM  Associated Press]
▶ Raven Industries Manufactures Another Solid Quarter   [Mar-27-17 08:34PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Raven Industries posts 4Q profit   [06:24PM  Associated Press]
▶ Raven Industries Executive Named University President   [Feb-22-17 06:25PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Raven Industries Gets Back on Track   [Feb-21-17 10:00PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Raven Industries Provides Update on Filing Timeline   [Feb-02-17 05:44PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ What Hedge Funds Think about Raven Industries, Inc. (RAVN)?   [Dec-08-16 04:00PM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of RAVN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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