Intrinsic value of Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers - RBA

Previous Close

$28.59

  Intrinsic Value

$17.73

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-38%

Previous close

$28.59

 
Intrinsic value

$17.73

 
Up/down potential

-38%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of RBA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  9.69
  4.40
  4.46
  4.51
  4.56
  4.61
  4.65
  4.68
  4.71
  4.74
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.93
  4.94
  4.95
  4.95
  4.96
  4.96
  4.97
  4.97
  4.97
Revenue, $m
  566
  591
  617
  645
  675
  706
  738
  773
  809
  848
  888
  931
  976
  1,023
  1,072
  1,124
  1,179
  1,237
  1,297
  1,361
  1,428
  1,498
  1,572
  1,650
  1,732
  1,818
  1,908
  2,002
  2,102
  2,206
  2,316
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  390
  407
  425
  444
  464
  485
  507
  531
  556
  582
  599
  628
  658
  690
  724
  759
  796
  835
  876
  919
  965
  1,012
  1,062
  1,115
  1,170
  1,228
  1,289
  1,353
  1,420
  1,491
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  437
  390
  407
  425
  444
  464
  485
  507
  531
  556
  582
  599
  628
  658
  690
  724
  759
  796
  835
  876
  919
  965
  1,012
  1,062
  1,115
  1,170
  1,228
  1,289
  1,353
  1,420
  1,491
Operating income, $m
  129
  201
  210
  220
  231
  242
  253
  266
  279
  292
  307
  332
  348
  364
  382
  401
  420
  441
  462
  485
  509
  534
  560
  588
  617
  648
  680
  713
  749
  786
  825
EBITDA, $m
  170
  247
  258
  270
  282
  295
  309
  324
  339
  355
  372
  390
  408
  428
  449
  471
  494
  518
  543
  570
  598
  627
  658
  691
  725
  761
  798
  838
  880
  923
  969
Interest expense (income), $m
  6
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  76
  80
  85
  90
  95
  100
  105
  111
Earnings before tax, $m
  130
  180
  188
  196
  205
  215
  225
  235
  246
  258
  270
  293
  307
  321
  336
  352
  369
  386
  405
  424
  444
  466
  488
  512
  537
  563
  590
  619
  649
  681
  714
Tax expense, $m
  36
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  104
  109
  114
  120
  126
  132
  138
  145
  152
  159
  167
  175
  184
  193
Net income, $m
  92
  131
  137
  143
  150
  157
  164
  172
  180
  188
  197
  214
  224
  234
  245
  257
  269
  282
  295
  309
  324
  340
  356
  374
  392
  411
  431
  452
  474
  497
  521

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  208
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,600
  1,452
  1,517
  1,585
  1,657
  1,734
  1,814
  1,899
  1,989
  2,083
  2,182
  2,287
  2,397
  2,513
  2,634
  2,763
  2,897
  3,039
  3,188
  3,344
  3,509
  3,682
  3,863
  4,054
  4,255
  4,466
  4,687
  4,920
  5,164
  5,420
  5,690
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,392
  1,452
  1,517
  1,585
  1,657
  1,734
  1,814
  1,899
  1,989
  2,083
  2,182
  2,287
  2,397
  2,513
  2,634
  2,763
  2,897
  3,039
  3,188
  3,344
  3,509
  3,682
  3,863
  4,054
  4,255
  4,466
  4,687
  4,920
  5,164
  5,420
  5,690
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
  0.407
Average production assets, $m
  582
  607
  634
  663
  693
  725
  758
  794
  831
  871
  912
  956
  1,002
  1,050
  1,101
  1,155
  1,211
  1,270
  1,332
  1,398
  1,467
  1,539
  1,615
  1,695
  1,779
  1,867
  1,959
  2,056
  2,158
  2,266
  2,378
Working capital, $m
  125
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -164
  -172
  -180
  -189
  -198
  -208
  -219
  -229
  -241
Total debt, $m
  620
  635
  676
  720
  766
  815
  866
  921
  978
  1,038
  1,102
  1,168
  1,239
  1,313
  1,390
  1,472
  1,558
  1,649
  1,744
  1,844
  1,949
  2,060
  2,176
  2,298
  2,426
  2,561
  2,702
  2,851
  3,007
  3,171
  3,343
Total liabilities, $m
  912
  928
  969
  1,013
  1,059
  1,108
  1,159
  1,214
  1,271
  1,331
  1,395
  1,461
  1,532
  1,606
  1,683
  1,765
  1,851
  1,942
  2,037
  2,137
  2,242
  2,353
  2,469
  2,591
  2,719
  2,854
  2,995
  3,144
  3,300
  3,464
  3,636
Total equity, $m
  687
  524
  547
  572
  598
  626
  655
  686
  718
  752
  788
  826
  865
  907
  951
  997
  1,046
  1,097
  1,151
  1,207
  1,267
  1,329
  1,395
  1,464
  1,536
  1,612
  1,692
  1,776
  1,864
  1,957
  2,054
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,599
  1,452
  1,516
  1,585
  1,657
  1,734
  1,814
  1,900
  1,989
  2,083
  2,183
  2,287
  2,397
  2,513
  2,634
  2,762
  2,897
  3,039
  3,188
  3,344
  3,509
  3,682
  3,864
  4,055
  4,255
  4,466
  4,687
  4,920
  5,164
  5,421
  5,690
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.902
  1.210
  1.230
  1.260
  1.280
  1.300
  1.320
  1.340
  1.360
  1.380
  1.400
  1.420
  1.430
  1.450
  1.460
  1.480
  1.490
  1.500
  1.520
  1.530
  1.540
  1.550
  1.560
  1.570
  1.580
  1.590
  1.600
  1.610
  1.610
  1.620
  1.630
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.344
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361
  0.361

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  92
  131
  137
  143
  150
  157
  164
  172
  180
  188
  197
  214
  224
  234
  245
  257
  269
  282
  295
  309
  324
  340
  356
  374
  392
  411
  431
  452
  474
  497
  521
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  41
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  63
  65
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  103
  108
  113
  119
  125
  131
  137
  144
Funds from operations, $m
  189
  178
  185
  193
  202
  211
  220
  230
  240
  251
  262
  272
  285
  298
  312
  327
  343
  359
  376
  394
  413
  433
  454
  476
  500
  524
  549
  576
  605
  634
  665
Change in working capital, $m
  11
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
Cash from operations, $m
  178
  180
  188
  196
  205
  214
  223
  233
  244
  255
  267
  276
  289
  303
  317
  332
  348
  365
  382
  401
  420
  441
  462
  484
  508
  533
  559
  586
  615
  645
  677
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -137
New CAPEX, $m
  -19
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -113
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -117
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -115
  -121
  -126
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -154
  -161
  -169
  -178
  -187
  -196
  -206
  -216
  -227
  -238
  -250
Free cash flow, $m
  61
  120
  124
  129
  134
  140
  146
  152
  158
  165
  172
  177
  185
  194
  203
  212
  222
  232
  243
  255
  267
  279
  293
  307
  321
  337
  353
  370
  388
  407
  427
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  507
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
  91
  95
  100
  105
  110
  116
  122
  128
  135
  141
  149
  156
  164
  172
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -12
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  474
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
  91
  95
  100
  105
  110
  116
  122
  128
  135
  141
  149
  156
  164
  172
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  535
  159
  166
  173
  181
  189
  197
  206
  215
  225
  236
  244
  256
  268
  281
  294
  308
  323
  338
  355
  372
  390
  409
  429
  450
  472
  495
  519
  544
  571
  599
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  16
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -97
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  184
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  322
  142
  148
  154
  161
  168
  175
  183
  191
  200
  206
  216
  226
  237
  248
  259
  272
  285
  298
  312
  327
  343
  360
  377
  396
  415
  435
  456
  478
  502
Discount rate, %
 
  5.40
  5.67
  5.95
  6.25
  6.56
  6.89
  7.24
  7.60
  7.98
  8.38
  8.80
  9.24
  9.70
  10.18
  10.69
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.04
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.20
  20.16
  21.17
  22.23
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  305
  127
  125
  121
  117
  113
  108
  102
  96
  89
  82
  75
  68
  61
  54
  47
  41
  35
  29
  24
  20
  16
  12
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Ritchie Bros Auctioneers Inc is a Canada-based holding company. The Company is an industrial auctioneer and used equipment distributor, selling used equipment and other assets. Its segments include Core Auction, which is a network of auction locations that conduct live, unreserved auctions with both on-site and online bidding, and Other, which includes its EquipmentOne and Mascus International Holding B.V. (Mascus) online services. EquipmentOne is an online marketplace that equipment sellers can navigate independently. EquipmentOne facilitates the completion of sales through a settlement process managed by EquipmentOne that protects both the seller and the buyer. Mascus is an online equipment listing service for used heavy machinery and trucks. It offers subscriptions to equipment dealers, brokers, exporters and equipment manufacturers to list equipment available for sale at a listed price. The Company, through Mascus, provides online advertising services, business tools and solutions.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers (RBA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 33.2
Price to Sales 5.4
Price to Book 4.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 17.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 19.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 9.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -13.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -12%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 9
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 86.8%
Total Debt to Equity 90.2%
Interest Coverage 23
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.3%
Return On Total Capital 8.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.1%
Return On Equity 13.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.3%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 88.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 88.5%
EBITDA Margin 31.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.2%
Operating Margin 22.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 23%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 28%
Net Profit Margin 16.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.5%
Effective Tax Rate 27.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.5%
Payout Ratio 76.1%

RBA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the RBA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $566 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our RBA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 4.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.4%, whose default value for RBA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of RBA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 66.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for RBA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the RBA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for RBA are equal to 102.7%.

Life of production assets of 16.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for RBA is equal to -10.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $687 million for Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 107.13 million for Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Ritchie Bros. beats 2Q profit forecasts   [Aug-08-17 05:22PM  Associated Press]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for July 13th   [Jul-13-17 11:39AM  Zacks]
▶ 3 Stocks That Feel Like Wal-Mart in 1970   [Jun-10-17 08:10PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Ritchie Bros. crane sales ready to reach new heights   [Jun-05-17 03:05PM  PR Newswire]
▶ 2 Top Dividend Stocks That Could Double   [May-15-17 03:28PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Ritchie Bros. misses Street 1Q forecasts   [May-05-17 05:03AM  Associated Press]
▶ Ritchie Bros. reports first quarter 2017 results   [May-04-17 05:05PM  CNW Group]
▶ 3 Top Industrial Stocks' Earnings to Watch This Week   [Apr-30-17 08:07AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Caterpillar: Fixing a Hole   [Apr-25-17 11:12AM  Barrons.com]
▶ 3 Stocks We Can't Wait to Buy on Sale   [Feb-28-17 09:33AM  Motley Fool]
▶ 3 Stocks We Can't Wait to Buy on Sale   [09:33AM  at Motley Fool]
Financial statements of RBA
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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