Intrinsic value of RCM Technologies - RCMT

Previous Close

$7.32

  Intrinsic Value

$4.45

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-39%

Previous close

$7.32

 
Intrinsic value

$4.45

 
Up/down potential

-39%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of RCMT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -5.38
  2.20
  2.48
  2.73
  2.96
  3.16
  3.35
  3.51
  3.66
  3.79
  3.92
  4.02
  4.12
  4.21
  4.29
  4.36
  4.42
  4.48
  4.53
  4.58
  4.62
  4.66
  4.69
  4.72
  4.75
  4.78
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.85
  4.87
Revenue, $m
  176
  180
  184
  189
  195
  201
  208
  215
  223
  232
  241
  250
  261
  272
  283
  296
  309
  322
  337
  352
  369
  386
  404
  423
  443
  464
  487
  510
  535
  561
  588
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  108
  111
  114
  117
  121
  125
  129
  134
  139
  144
  149
  155
  162
  169
  176
  184
  192
  201
  210
  219
  230
  240
  252
  264
  276
  290
  304
  318
  334
  350
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  70
  71
  73
  75
  77
  79
  81
  83
  85
  87
  89
  91
  94
  96
  98
  101
  103
  106
  109
  111
  114
  117
  120
  123
  126
  129
  132
  136
  139
  143
Total operating expenses, $m
  172
  178
  182
  187
  192
  198
  204
  210
  217
  224
  231
  238
  246
  256
  265
  274
  285
  295
  307
  319
  330
  344
  357
  372
  387
  402
  419
  436
  454
  473
  493
Operating income, $m
  4
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  6
  8
  9
  12
  14
  16
  19
  21
  24
  27
  30
  34
  38
  42
  47
  51
  56
  62
  68
  74
  81
  88
  95
EBITDA, $m
  6
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  22
  25
  28
  31
  35
  39
  43
  48
  53
  58
  63
  69
  76
  82
  89
  97
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
Earnings before tax, $m
  3
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  7
  8
  11
  13
  15
  17
  20
  23
  26
  29
  32
  36
  40
  44
  49
  54
  59
  65
  71
  78
  85
  92
Tax expense, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  25
Net income, $m
  2
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  8
  9
  11
  13
  14
  16
  19
  21
  24
  26
  29
  32
  36
  39
  43
  48
  52
  57
  62
  67

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  70
  72
  73
  75
  78
  80
  83
  86
  89
  92
  96
  100
  104
  108
  113
  118
  123
  128
  134
  140
  147
  154
  161
  168
  176
  185
  194
  203
  213
  223
  234
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  70
  72
  73
  75
  78
  80
  83
  86
  89
  92
  96
  100
  104
  108
  113
  118
  123
  128
  134
  140
  147
  154
  161
  168
  176
  185
  194
  203
  213
  223
  234
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.514
  2.500
  2.521
  2.520
  2.500
  2.513
  2.506
  2.500
  2.506
  2.522
  2.510
  2.500
  2.510
  2.519
  2.504
  2.508
  2.512
  2.516
  2.515
  2.514
  2.510
  2.506
  2.509
  2.518
  2.517
  2.508
  2.510
  2.512
  2.512
  2.516
  2.513
Average production assets, $m
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
Working capital, $m
  29
  30
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
  93
  97
Total debt, $m
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  30
  33
  35
  38
  40
  43
  46
  50
  53
  57
  61
  65
  69
  73
  78
  83
  88
  94
  99
  105
Total liabilities, $m
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  45
  46
  48
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  108
  113
  119
  124
  130
Total equity, $m
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  104
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  70
  72
  73
  75
  77
  80
  83
  86
  88
  92
  95
  99
  104
  108
  113
  117
  122
  128
  134
  140
  147
  154
  161
  169
  176
  185
  194
  203
  213
  223
  234
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.452
  0.470
  0.490
  0.510
  0.530
  0.550
  0.570
  0.600
  0.620
  0.640
  0.670
  0.690
  0.710
  0.730
  0.760
  0.780
  0.800
  0.820
  0.840
  0.850
  0.870
  0.890
  0.910
  0.920
  0.940
  0.950
  0.970
  0.980
  0.990
  1.000
  1.020
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  2
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  8
  9
  11
  13
  14
  16
  19
  21
  24
  26
  29
  32
  36
  39
  43
  48
  52
  57
  62
  67
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
Funds from operations, $m
  18
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  17
  20
  22
  25
  27
  30
  34
  37
  41
  45
  49
  53
  58
  63
  69
Change in working capital, $m
  6
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
Cash from operations, $m
  12
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  17
  20
  22
  25
  28
  31
  34
  37
  41
  45
  50
  54
  59
  64
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
Free cash flow, $m
  11
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  6
  8
  9
  10
  12
  14
  16
  18
  21
  23
  26
  29
  32
  36
  39
  43
  48
  52
  57
  62
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -7
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -12
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  8
  8
  10
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  22
  24
  27
  30
  33
  37
  40
  44
  48
  53
  58
  63
  68
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  24
  27
  30
  33
  37
  40
  44
  49
  53
  58
  63
Discount rate, %
 
  5.30
  5.57
  5.84
  6.14
  6.44
  6.76
  7.10
  7.46
  7.83
  8.22
  8.63
  9.06
  9.52
  9.99
  10.49
  11.02
  11.57
  12.15
  12.76
  13.39
  14.06
  14.77
  15.50
  16.28
  17.09
  17.95
  18.85
  19.79
  20.78
  21.82
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  2
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

RCM Technologies, Inc. is a provider of business and technology solutions. The Company is also a provider of specialty healthcare services to healthcare institutions and educational facilities. The Company operates through three segments: Engineering, Information Technology (IT) and Specialty Health Care Services. Its Engineering segment provides engineering and design, engineering analysis, technical writing and technical support services, engineer, procure and construction management (EPC), as well as demand side management and energy conservation services. Its IT segment provides enterprise business solutions, application services, infrastructure solutions, competitive advantage and productivity solutions, life sciences solutions and other selected vertical market specific offerings. The Specialty Health Care Services segment provides the staffing of healthcare professionals, primarily therapists, nurses and care givers. It services various national and international companies.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  RCM Technologies (RCMT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 43.7
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 2.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -5.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -66.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 45.2%
Total Debt to Equity 45.2%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Return On Total Capital 4.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Return On Equity 6.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.9%
Asset Turnover 2.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 26.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.2%
EBITDA Margin 2.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Operating Margin 2.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 1.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.7%
Net Profit Margin 1.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Effective Tax Rate 33.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 28%
Payout Ratio 0%

RCMT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the RCMT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $176 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by RCM Technologies. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of RCM Technologies. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our RCMT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.3%, whose default value for RCMT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of RCM Technologies, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of RCM Technologies.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of RCMT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 60.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $68 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for RCMT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for RCM Technologies.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for RCM Technologies. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the RCMT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for RCMT are equal to 2.3%.

Life of production assets of 8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in RCM Technologies operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for RCMT is equal to 16.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $31 million for RCM Technologies - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 12.01 million for RCM Technologies is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of RCM Technologies at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ RCM Technologies, Inc. Announces Third Quarter Results   [Nov-01-17 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ RCM Technologies, Inc. Announces Conference Call   [Oct-26-17 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ RCM Technologies, Inc. Announces Second Quarter Results   [Aug-09-17 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ RCM Technologies, Inc. Announces Conference Call   [Aug-03-17 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ RCM Technologies, Inc. Announces First Quarter Results   [May-03-17 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ RCM Technologies, Inc. Announces Conference Call   [Apr-28-17 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ RCM Technologies, Inc. Announces Conference Call   [Feb-23-17 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ RCM Technologies, Inc. Announces Conference Call   [Nov-03-16 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ RCM Technologies, Inc. Announces Conference Call   [Aug-04-16 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ RCM Technologies, Inc. Announces Conference Call   [May-04-16 04:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ RCM Technologies, Inc. Announces Conference Call   [Feb-26-16 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ RCM Technologies, Inc. Announces Conference Call   [Oct-30  04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ 5 Stocks Insiders Love Right Now   [Aug-26  03:03PM  at TheStreet]
▶ 5 Stocks Ready for Breakouts   [Aug-21  09:13AM  at TheStreet]
▶ 10-Q for RCM Technologies, Inc.   [Aug-15  08:10PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ RCM Technologies, Inc. Announces Conference Call   [Aug-04  04:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ 10-Q for RCM Technologies, Inc.   [May-16  08:09PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ RCM Technologies, Inc. Announces Conference Call   [May-07  04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ 10-K for RCM Technologies, Inc.   [Mar-07  07:08PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ RCM Technologies, Inc. Announces Conference Call   [Feb-27  04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
Financial statements of RCMT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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