Intrinsic value of Dr. Reddy's Laboratories ADR - RDY

Previous Close

$29.66

  Intrinsic Value

$22.97

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-23%

Previous close

$29.66

 
Intrinsic value

$22.97

 
Up/down potential

-23%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of RDY stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -8.98
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  2,108
  2,211
  2,262
  2,320
  2,386
  2,458
  2,537
  2,624
  2,717
  2,818
  2,926
  3,042
  3,165
  3,297
  3,436
  3,585
  3,742
  3,908
  4,084
  4,270
  4,466
  4,673
  4,891
  5,121
  5,364
  5,619
  5,888
  6,171
  6,469
  6,782
  7,112
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,785
  1,825
  1,870
  1,920
  1,976
  2,037
  2,104
  2,177
  2,254
  2,338
  2,353
  2,448
  2,550
  2,658
  2,772
  2,894
  3,023
  3,159
  3,302
  3,454
  3,614
  3,783
  3,961
  4,148
  4,346
  4,554
  4,773
  5,003
  5,245
  5,500
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,906
  1,785
  1,825
  1,870
  1,920
  1,976
  2,037
  2,104
  2,177
  2,254
  2,338
  2,353
  2,448
  2,550
  2,658
  2,772
  2,894
  3,023
  3,159
  3,302
  3,454
  3,614
  3,783
  3,961
  4,148
  4,346
  4,554
  4,773
  5,003
  5,245
  5,500
Operating income, $m
  202
  426
  438
  451
  466
  482
  500
  520
  541
  564
  588
  689
  717
  747
  779
  812
  848
  886
  925
  968
  1,012
  1,059
  1,108
  1,160
  1,215
  1,273
  1,334
  1,398
  1,466
  1,537
  1,611
EBITDA, $m
  371
  645
  659
  676
  695
  716
  740
  765
  792
  821
  853
  887
  923
  961
  1,002
  1,045
  1,091
  1,139
  1,190
  1,245
  1,302
  1,362
  1,426
  1,493
  1,564
  1,638
  1,716
  1,799
  1,886
  1,977
  2,073
Interest expense (income), $m
  14
  41
  42
  44
  46
  49
  52
  54
  58
  61
  65
  69
  73
  78
  82
  87
  93
  99
  105
  111
  118
  125
  133
  141
  149
  158
  168
  178
  188
  199
  210
Earnings before tax, $m
  219
  385
  395
  406
  419
  433
  448
  465
  483
  503
  523
  621
  644
  670
  696
  725
  755
  787
  821
  856
  894
  934
  975
  1,020
  1,066
  1,115
  1,167
  1,221
  1,278
  1,338
  1,401
Tax expense, $m
  39
  104
  107
  110
  113
  117
  121
  126
  130
  136
  141
  168
  174
  181
  188
  196
  204
  212
  222
  231
  241
  252
  263
  275
  288
  301
  315
  330
  345
  361
  378
Net income, $m
  180
  281
  288
  297
  306
  316
  327
  340
  353
  367
  382
  453
  470
  489
  508
  529
  551
  574
  599
  625
  653
  682
  712
  744
  778
  814
  852
  891
  933
  977
  1,023

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  269
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,291
  3,450
  3,529
  3,620
  3,722
  3,835
  3,958
  4,093
  4,239
  4,396
  4,565
  4,746
  4,938
  5,143
  5,361
  5,592
  5,837
  6,097
  6,371
  6,661
  6,967
  7,290
  7,631
  7,990
  8,368
  8,766
  9,186
  9,627
  10,092
  10,581
  11,095
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,022
  3,450
  3,529
  3,620
  3,722
  3,835
  3,958
  4,093
  4,239
  4,396
  4,565
  4,746
  4,938
  5,143
  5,361
  5,592
  5,837
  6,097
  6,371
  6,661
  6,967
  7,290
  7,631
  7,990
  8,368
  8,766
  9,186
  9,627
  10,092
  10,581
  11,095
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.698
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
  0.641
Average production assets, $m
  1,324
  1,435
  1,468
  1,506
  1,548
  1,595
  1,647
  1,703
  1,764
  1,829
  1,899
  1,974
  2,054
  2,140
  2,230
  2,326
  2,428
  2,536
  2,650
  2,771
  2,898
  3,033
  3,174
  3,324
  3,481
  3,647
  3,821
  4,005
  4,198
  4,402
  4,615
Working capital, $m
  230
  237
  242
  248
  255
  263
  271
  281
  291
  302
  313
  325
  339
  353
  368
  384
  400
  418
  437
  457
  478
  500
  523
  548
  574
  601
  630
  660
  692
  726
  761
Total debt, $m
  736
  786
  821
  860
  905
  954
  1,008
  1,067
  1,130
  1,199
  1,273
  1,351
  1,435
  1,525
  1,620
  1,720
  1,827
  1,940
  2,060
  2,186
  2,320
  2,461
  2,609
  2,766
  2,931
  3,104
  3,287
  3,480
  3,682
  3,895
  4,119
Total liabilities, $m
  1,434
  1,504
  1,539
  1,578
  1,623
  1,672
  1,726
  1,785
  1,848
  1,917
  1,990
  2,069
  2,153
  2,242
  2,337
  2,438
  2,545
  2,658
  2,778
  2,904
  3,038
  3,178
  3,327
  3,484
  3,648
  3,822
  4,005
  4,197
  4,400
  4,613
  4,837
Total equity, $m
  1,857
  1,946
  1,990
  2,042
  2,099
  2,163
  2,233
  2,309
  2,391
  2,480
  2,575
  2,676
  2,785
  2,901
  3,024
  3,154
  3,292
  3,439
  3,593
  3,757
  3,929
  4,112
  4,304
  4,506
  4,720
  4,944
  5,181
  5,430
  5,692
  5,967
  6,257
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,291
  3,450
  3,529
  3,620
  3,722
  3,835
  3,959
  4,094
  4,239
  4,397
  4,565
  4,745
  4,938
  5,143
  5,361
  5,592
  5,837
  6,097
  6,371
  6,661
  6,967
  7,290
  7,631
  7,990
  8,368
  8,766
  9,186
  9,627
  10,092
  10,580
  11,094
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.396
  0.400
  0.410
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.500
  0.520
  0.530
  0.540
  0.550
  0.560
  0.560
  0.570
  0.580
  0.590
  0.600
  0.610
  0.610
  0.620
  0.630
  0.630
  0.640
  0.650
  0.650
  0.660
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.614
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564
  0.564

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  180
  281
  288
  297
  306
  316
  327
  340
  353
  367
  382
  453
  470
  489
  508
  529
  551
  574
  599
  625
  653
  682
  712
  744
  778
  814
  852
  891
  933
  977
  1,023
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  169
  219
  222
  226
  230
  235
  240
  245
  251
  258
  265
  197
  205
  214
  223
  233
  243
  254
  265
  277
  290
  303
  317
  332
  348
  365
  382
  401
  420
  440
  462
Funds from operations, $m
  156
  500
  510
  522
  536
  551
  567
  585
  604
  625
  647
  650
  676
  703
  731
  762
  794
  828
  864
  902
  942
  985
  1,030
  1,077
  1,126
  1,179
  1,234
  1,292
  1,353
  1,417
  1,484
Change in working capital, $m
  -166
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  35
Cash from operations, $m
  322
  495
  505
  516
  529
  543
  559
  576
  594
  614
  635
  638
  663
  689
  716
  746
  777
  810
  845
  882
  921
  963
  1,006
  1,052
  1,100
  1,151
  1,205
  1,261
  1,321
  1,383
  1,449
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -141
  -144
  -147
  -151
  -155
  -160
  -165
  -170
  -176
  -183
  -190
  -197
  -205
  -214
  -223
  -233
  -243
  -254
  -265
  -277
  -290
  -303
  -317
  -332
  -348
  -365
  -382
  -401
  -420
  -440
New CAPEX, $m
  -184
  -27
  -33
  -38
  -42
  -47
  -52
  -56
  -61
  -65
  -70
  -75
  -80
  -85
  -91
  -96
  -102
  -108
  -114
  -121
  -127
  -134
  -142
  -149
  -157
  -166
  -174
  -184
  -193
  -203
  -214
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -277
  -168
  -177
  -185
  -193
  -202
  -212
  -221
  -231
  -241
  -253
  -265
  -277
  -290
  -305
  -319
  -335
  -351
  -368
  -386
  -404
  -424
  -445
  -466
  -489
  -514
  -539
  -566
  -594
  -623
  -654
Free cash flow, $m
  45
  327
  328
  332
  336
  341
  348
  355
  363
  372
  382
  373
  385
  398
  412
  427
  443
  459
  478
  497
  517
  538
  561
  585
  611
  637
  666
  696
  727
  760
  795
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  244
  29
  35
  40
  44
  49
  54
  59
  64
  69
  74
  79
  84
  89
  95
  101
  107
  113
  120
  126
  133
  141
  148
  157
  165
  174
  183
  192
  203
  213
  224
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -235
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -4
  29
  35
  40
  44
  49
  54
  59
  64
  69
  74
  79
  84
  89
  95
  101
  107
  113
  120
  126
  133
  141
  148
  157
  165
  174
  183
  192
  203
  213
  224
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  34
  356
  363
  371
  380
  390
  401
  414
  427
  441
  456
  452
  469
  487
  507
  527
  549
  573
  597
  623
  650
  679
  710
  742
  776
  811
  849
  888
  930
  973
  1,019
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  64
  -36
  -45
  -51
  -57
  -64
  -70
  -76
  -82
  -89
  -95
  -102
  -109
  -116
  -123
  -130
  -138
  -146
  -155
  -163
  -173
  -182
  -192
  -202
  -213
  -225
  -237
  -249
  -262
  -276
  -290
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  320
  318
  320
  323
  327
  332
  338
  344
  352
  361
  350
  360
  372
  384
  397
  411
  426
  442
  460
  478
  497
  518
  539
  562
  586
  612
  639
  668
  698
  729
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  307
  291
  278
  266
  253
  241
  228
  215
  202
  189
  166
  154
  141
  129
  117
  104
  93
  81
  71
  61
  51
  43
  35
  29
  23
  18
  14
  10
  8
  5
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Limited is a pharmaceutical company that is engaged in providing medicines. The Company operates in three segments: Global Generics, Pharmaceutical Services and Active Ingredients (PSAI), and Proprietary Products. The Global Generics segment includes manufacturing and marketing prescription and over-the-counter finished pharmaceutical products ready for consumption by the patient, marketed under a brand name (branded formulations) or as generic finished dosages with therapeutic equivalence to branded formulations (generics). PSAI segment includes the Company's business of manufacturing and marketing active pharmaceutical ingredients and intermediates (API) or bulk drugs. Proprietary Products segment focuses on the research, development and manufacture of differentiated formulations and new chemical entities. These products fall within the dermatology and neurology therapeutic areas, and are marketed and sold through its subsidiary, Promius Pharma, LLC.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Dr. Reddy's Laboratories ADR (RDY)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 27.3
Price to Sales 2.3
Price to Book 2.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 15.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 35.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 2.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 4.4%
Total Debt to Equity 39.6%
Interest Coverage 17
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Return On Total Capital 7.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.7%
Return On Equity 9.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.1%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 55.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 57.7%
EBITDA Margin 19.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23%
Operating Margin 9.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 10.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.6%
Net Profit Margin 8.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.2%
Effective Tax Rate 17.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.7%
Payout Ratio 28.3%

RDY stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the RDY stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2168 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Dr. Reddy's Laboratories ADR. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Dr. Reddy's Laboratories ADR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our RDY stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for RDY is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Dr. Reddy's Laboratories ADR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Dr. Reddy's Laboratories ADR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of RDY stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 80.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for RDY stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Dr. Reddy's Laboratories ADR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Dr. Reddy's Laboratories ADR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the RDY stock is equal to 0.3%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for RDY are equal to 64.9%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Dr. Reddy's Laboratories ADR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for RDY is equal to 10.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1910 million for Dr. Reddy's Laboratories ADR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 167 million for Dr. Reddy's Laboratories ADR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Dr. Reddy's Laboratories ADR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Dr.Reddys Laboratories (RDY) Dives Following Court Order   [Jul-16-18 03:15PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Dr. Reddy's to Release Q1 FY19 Results on July 26, 2018   [Jul-05-18 09:38AM  Business Wire]
▶ Company News For Jun 18, 2018   [Jun-18-18 10:09AM  Zacks]
▶ Dr. Reddys Q4 and FY18 Financial Results   [May-22-18 09:12AM  Business Wire]
▶ Doctor Reddy's: Fiscal 4Q Earnings Snapshot   [08:29AM  Associated Press]
▶ Celgene Rises On Potential It Could Settle Over Generic Revlimid   [Mar-26-18 04:17PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Doctor Reddy's posts 3Q profit   [06:09AM  Associated Press]
▶ Dr. Reddys Q3 and 9M FY18 Financial Results   [05:51AM  Business Wire]
▶ Dr. Reddy's to release Q3 FY18 results on January 25, 2018   [Jan-16-18 03:57AM  Business Wire]
▶ Top 10 Generic Pharmaceutical Companies In 2017   [Dec-13-17 11:37AM  Insider Monkey]
▶ Doctor Reddy's posts 2Q profit   [05:04AM  Associated Press]
▶ Dr. Reddys Q2 and H1 FY18 Financial Results   [04:32AM  Business Wire]
Financial statements of RDY
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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