Intrinsic value of Renewable Energy Group - REGI

Previous Close

$10.90

  Intrinsic Value

$9.80

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  Rating & Target

hold

-10%

Previous close

$10.90

 
Intrinsic value

$9.80

 
Up/down potential

-10%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of REGI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  47.15
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  2,041
  2,082
  2,130
  2,184
  2,246
  2,314
  2,389
  2,470
  2,558
  2,653
  2,755
  2,864
  2,980
  3,104
  3,235
  3,375
  3,523
  3,679
  3,845
  4,020
  4,204
  4,399
  4,605
  4,821
  5,050
  5,290
  5,543
  5,810
  6,090
  6,385
  6,695
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,401
  1,433
  1,470
  1,511
  1,557
  1,607
  1,662
  1,721
  1,785
  1,853
  1,925
  2,003
  2,086
  2,175
  2,269
  2,368
  2,473
  2,584
  2,702
  2,826
  2,957
  3,095
  3,241
  3,394
  3,556
  3,726
  3,905
  4,094
  4,292
  4,501
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  640
  656
  672
  689
  706
  724
  742
  760
  779
  799
  819
  839
  860
  882
  904
  926
  949
  973
  998
  1,022
  1,048
  1,074
  1,101
  1,129
  1,157
  1,186
  1,215
  1,246
  1,277
  1,309
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,982
  2,041
  2,089
  2,142
  2,200
  2,263
  2,331
  2,404
  2,481
  2,564
  2,652
  2,744
  2,842
  2,946
  3,057
  3,173
  3,294
  3,422
  3,557
  3,700
  3,848
  4,005
  4,169
  4,342
  4,523
  4,713
  4,912
  5,120
  5,340
  5,569
  5,810
Operating income, $m
  59
  41
  41
  42
  46
  51
  58
  66
  77
  89
  103
  120
  138
  157
  179
  202
  228
  256
  287
  320
  356
  394
  435
  479
  527
  577
  631
  689
  750
  816
  886
EBITDA, $m
  92
  76
  76
  79
  83
  89
  97
  107
  119
  132
  148
  165
  185
  206
  230
  256
  284
  315
  348
  383
  422
  463
  508
  555
  606
  661
  719
  781
  846
  917
  991
Interest expense (income), $m
  10
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  43
Earnings before tax, $m
  49
  33
  32
  33
  36
  41
  47
  55
  65
  76
  89
  106
  123
  141
  162
  185
  209
  236
  266
  297
  332
  368
  408
  451
  496
  545
  597
  653
  712
  775
  843
Tax expense, $m
  4
  9
  9
  9
  10
  11
  13
  15
  17
  21
  24
  29
  33
  38
  44
  50
  57
  64
  72
  80
  90
  99
  110
  122
  134
  147
  161
  176
  192
  209
  228
Net income, $m
  44
  24
  23
  24
  26
  30
  34
  40
  47
  56
  65
  77
  90
  103
  118
  135
  153
  173
  194
  217
  242
  269
  298
  329
  362
  398
  436
  477
  520
  566
  615

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  116
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,137
  1,041
  1,065
  1,093
  1,124
  1,158
  1,195
  1,236
  1,280
  1,327
  1,378
  1,433
  1,491
  1,553
  1,618
  1,688
  1,762
  1,841
  1,923
  2,011
  2,103
  2,201
  2,304
  2,412
  2,526
  2,646
  2,773
  2,906
  3,046
  3,194
  3,349
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,021
  1,041
  1,065
  1,093
  1,124
  1,158
  1,195
  1,236
  1,280
  1,327
  1,378
  1,433
  1,491
  1,553
  1,618
  1,688
  1,762
  1,841
  1,923
  2,011
  2,103
  2,201
  2,304
  2,412
  2,526
  2,646
  2,773
  2,906
  3,046
  3,194
  3,349
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.999
  2.000
  2.000
  1.998
  1.998
  1.998
  1.999
  1.998
  1.998
  1.999
  1.999
  1.999
  1.999
  1.999
  1.999
  1.999
  1.999
  1.998
  1.999
  1.999
  1.999
  1.999
  1.999
  1.999
  1.999
  1.999
  1.999
  1.999
  1.999
  1.999
  1.999
Average production assets, $m
  618
  631
  645
  662
  681
  701
  724
  748
  775
  804
  835
  868
  903
  940
  980
  1,023
  1,067
  1,115
  1,165
  1,218
  1,274
  1,333
  1,395
  1,461
  1,530
  1,603
  1,680
  1,760
  1,845
  1,935
  2,029
Working capital, $m
  229
  187
  192
  197
  202
  208
  215
  222
  230
  239
  248
  258
  268
  279
  291
  304
  317
  331
  346
  362
  378
  396
  414
  434
  454
  476
  499
  523
  548
  575
  603
Total debt, $m
  311
  251
  261
  274
  288
  303
  320
  338
  358
  380
  403
  427
  453
  481
  511
  542
  576
  611
  648
  688
  730
  774
  820
  869
  920
  974
  1,032
  1,092
  1,155
  1,221
  1,291
Total liabilities, $m
  529
  470
  480
  493
  507
  522
  539
  557
  577
  599
  622
  646
  672
  700
  730
  761
  795
  830
  867
  907
  949
  993
  1,039
  1,088
  1,139
  1,193
  1,251
  1,311
  1,374
  1,440
  1,510
Total equity, $m
  607
  572
  585
  600
  617
  636
  656
  678
  703
  729
  757
  786
  818
  852
  889
  927
  967
  1,010
  1,056
  1,104
  1,155
  1,208
  1,265
  1,324
  1,387
  1,453
  1,522
  1,596
  1,673
  1,754
  1,839
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,136
  1,042
  1,065
  1,093
  1,124
  1,158
  1,195
  1,235
  1,280
  1,328
  1,379
  1,432
  1,490
  1,552
  1,619
  1,688
  1,762
  1,840
  1,923
  2,011
  2,104
  2,201
  2,304
  2,412
  2,526
  2,646
  2,773
  2,907
  3,047
  3,194
  3,349
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.512
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
  0.540
  0.550
  0.560
  0.580
  0.590
  0.600
  0.600
  0.610
  0.620
  0.630
  0.640
  0.650
  0.660
  0.660
  0.670
  0.680
  0.680
  0.690
  0.700
  0.700
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.533
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549
  0.549

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  44
  24
  23
  24
  26
  30
  34
  40
  47
  56
  65
  77
  90
  103
  118
  135
  153
  173
  194
  217
  242
  269
  298
  329
  362
  398
  436
  477
  520
  566
  615
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  41
  42
  43
  45
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
  83
  87
  92
  96
  101
  106
Funds from operations, $m
  57
  58
  59
  60
  63
  68
  74
  81
  89
  99
  110
  122
  137
  152
  169
  188
  208
  231
  255
  280
  308
  338
  371
  405
  442
  481
  523
  568
  616
  667
  721
Change in working capital, $m
  -18
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
Cash from operations, $m
  75
  55
  54
  55
  58
  62
  67
  73
  81
  91
  101
  113
  126
  141
  157
  175
  195
  216
  240
  265
  292
  321
  352
  385
  421
  460
  501
  544
  591
  640
  693
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -96
  -101
New CAPEX, $m
  -61
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -64
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -139
  -145
  -153
  -160
  -168
  -177
  -185
  -195
Free cash flow, $m
  11
  9
  7
  5
  5
  6
  8
  11
  16
  21
  28
  36
  46
  56
  69
  82
  97
  113
  131
  151
  172
  195
  220
  247
  276
  307
  340
  376
  414
  455
  498
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  123
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -51
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  58
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  69
  19
  18
  18
  19
  21
  25
  29
  36
  43
  51
  61
  72
  84
  98
  114
  130
  149
  169
  191
  214
  239
  267
  296
  328
  361
  397
  436
  477
  521
  568
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  4
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  46
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  54
  5
  3
  2
  2
  4
  7
  11
  17
  23
  31
  40
  50
  62
  75
  90
  106
  123
  142
  163
  186
  210
  237
  265
  295
  328
  363
  400
  440
  483
Discount rate, %
 
  4.60
  4.83
  5.07
  5.33
  5.59
  5.87
  6.16
  6.47
  6.80
  7.14
  7.49
  7.87
  8.26
  8.67
  9.11
  9.56
  10.04
  10.54
  11.07
  11.62
  12.21
  12.82
  13.46
  14.13
  14.84
  15.58
  16.36
  17.17
  18.03
  18.93
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  52
  4
  2
  1
  2
  3
  5
  7
  9
  12
  14
  16
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  20
  19
  18
  17
  15
  13
  11
  9
  8
  6
  5
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Renewable Energy Group, Inc. is focused on providing cleaner, lower carbon intensity products and services. The Company is a producer of biomass-based diesel in North America. Its segments include Biomass-based diesel, Services, Renewable Chemicals and Corporate and other activities. It is involved in various activities related to biomass-based diesel production, from acquiring feedstock, managing construction and operating biomass-based diesel production facilities to marketing, selling and distributing biomass-based diesel and its co-products. As of December 31, 2016, it owned and operated a network of 14 biorefineries. As of December 31, 2016, 12 biorefineries were located in the United States and two in Germany, and 13 of which produce biodiesel or renewable hydrocarbon diesel and had an aggregate nameplate production capacity of 502 million gallons per year (mmgy). As of December 31, 2016, it also operated one microbial fermentation facility and one feedstock processing facility.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Renewable Energy Group (REGI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 9.5
Price to Sales 0.2
Price to Book 0.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 30
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 47.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -4.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 9.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 39.7%
Total Debt to Equity 51.2%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Return On Total Capital 4.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.3%
Return On Equity 7.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.8%
Asset Turnover 1.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 8.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.7%
EBITDA Margin 4.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.2%
Operating Margin 2.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 2.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.8%
Net Profit Margin 2.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.7%
Effective Tax Rate 8.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

REGI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the REGI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2041 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Renewable Energy Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Renewable Energy Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our REGI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.6%, whose default value for REGI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Renewable Energy Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Renewable Energy Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of REGI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 67.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $624 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for REGI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Renewable Energy Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Renewable Energy Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the REGI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for REGI are equal to 30.3%.

Life of production assets of 19.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Renewable Energy Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for REGI is equal to 9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $607 million for Renewable Energy Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 38.69 million for Renewable Energy Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Renewable Energy Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Renewable Energy Group reports 3Q loss   [Nov-07-17 05:31PM  Associated Press]
▶ 3 Incredibly Cheap Energy Stocks Right Now   [Aug-27-17 07:33AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Renewable Energy Group reports 2Q loss   [Aug-05-17 01:12AM  Associated Press]
▶ Renewable Energy Group reports 2Q loss   [Aug-04-17 05:08AM  Associated Press]
▶ Renewable Energy Group reports 1Q loss   [05:02AM  Associated Press]
▶ REG to Purchase Geismar Land   [11:12AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Renewable Energy Group posts 4Q profit   [Mar-07-17 06:18PM  Associated Press]
▶ REG Announces Several Milestones   [08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ How Supreme Industries, Inc. (STS) Stacks Up Against Its Peers?   [Dec-13-16 08:36AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Is Renewable Energy Group Inc (REGI) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-06-16 06:27AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ REG Supports EPA Final Rule Increasing Advanced Biofuel RVO   [Nov-23-16 12:53PM  Business Wire]
▶ REG Breaks Ground for Ralston Biorefinery Expansion   [Nov-11-16 10:26AM  Business Wire]
Financial statements of REGI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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