Intrinsic value of Reis - REIS

Previous Close

$17.00

  Intrinsic Value

$15.61

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-8%

  Value-price divergence*

+25%

Previous close

$17.00

 
Intrinsic value

$15.61

 
Up/down potential

-8%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence*

+25%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as REIS.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of REIS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -5.88
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  48
  49
  50
  51
  53
  54
  56
  58
  60
  62
  65
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  87
  90
  95
  99
  103
  108
  113
  119
  124
  130
  137
  143
  150
  157
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  38
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  44
  45
  46
  48
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  103
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  43
  38
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  44
  45
  46
  48
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  103
Operating income, $m
  5
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
EBITDA, $m
  12
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
Earnings before tax, $m
  5
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
Tax expense, $m
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
Net income, $m
  3
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  21
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  128
  109
  112
  114
  118
  121
  125
  129
  134
  139
  144
  150
  156
  163
  169
  177
  185
  193
  201
  211
  220
  230
  241
  253
  264
  277
  290
  304
  319
  334
  351
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  107
  109
  112
  114
  118
  121
  125
  129
  134
  139
  144
  150
  156
  163
  169
  177
  185
  193
  201
  211
  220
  230
  241
  253
  264
  277
  290
  304
  319
  334
  351
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.449
  0.450
  0.446
  0.447
  0.449
  0.446
  0.448
  0.450
  0.448
  0.446
  0.451
  0.447
  0.449
  0.448
  0.450
  0.446
  0.449
  0.451
  0.448
  0.450
  0.450
  0.448
  0.448
  0.447
  0.451
  0.448
  0.448
  0.451
  0.448
  0.449
  0.447
Average production assets, $m
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
Working capital, $m
  4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
Total debt, $m
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
  23
  25
  27
  30
  33
  36
  39
  42
  46
  49
  53
  57
  62
  66
  71
Total liabilities, $m
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
  93
  97
  102
Total equity, $m
  97
  77
  79
  81
  84
  86
  89
  92
  95
  99
  102
  106
  111
  115
  120
  126
  131
  137
  143
  149
  156
  164
  171
  179
  188
  197
  206
  216
  226
  237
  249
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  128
  109
  111
  114
  118
  121
  125
  130
  134
  139
  144
  149
  156
  162
  169
  177
  185
  193
  201
  210
  220
  231
  241
  252
  265
  277
  290
  304
  319
  334
  351
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.010
  0.020
  0.030
  0.040
  0.050
  0.060
  0.070
  0.080
  0.090
  0.110
  0.120
  0.130
  0.140
  0.150
  0.160
  0.170
  0.180
  0.190
  0.200
  0.210
  0.220
  0.230
  0.240
  0.240
  0.250
  0.260
  0.260
  0.270
  0.280
  0.280
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  3
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
Funds from operations, $m
  19
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
Change in working capital, $m
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from operations, $m
  16
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  20
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
New CAPEX, $m
  -13
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -13
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
Free cash flow, $m
  3
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  40
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  5
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  21
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  34
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  32
  12
  11
  11
  10
  10
  9
  9
  8
  8
  6
  6
  5
  5
  5
  4
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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Reis, Inc., through its subsidiary, Reis Services, provides commercial real estate market information and analytical tools to real estate professionals in the United States. It maintains a proprietary database containing information on commercial properties, including apartment, office, retail, warehouse/distribution, flex/research and development, self-storage, and seniors and student housing properties in the metropolitan markets and neighborhoods. The company’s data is used by real estate investors, lenders, and other professionals to make informed buying, selling, and financing decisions; and debt and equity investors to assess, quantify, and manage the risks of default and loss associated with individual mortgages, properties, portfolios, and real estate backed securities. Its products portfolio include features: Reis SE, a flagship delivery platform aimed at larger and mid-sized enterprises; ReisReports, aimed at prosumers and smaller enterprises; and Mobiuss Portfolio CRE, aimed primarily at risk managers and credit administrators at banks and non-bank lending institutions. The company’s products offer online access to a proprietary database of commercial real estate information and analytical tools designed to facilitate debt and equity transactions, and ongoing asset and portfolio evaluations; and access to market trends and forecasts at metropolitan and neighborhood levels, as well as building-specific information, such as rents, vacancy rates, lease terms, property sales, new construction listings, and property valuation estimates. It serves various lending institutions, equity investors, brokers, and appraisers. The company was formerly known as Wellsford Real Properties, Inc. and changed its name to Reis, Inc. in May 2007. Reis, Inc. was founded in 1980 and is based in New York, New York.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Reis (REIS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 63.9
Price to Sales 4
Price to Book 2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12
Price to Free Cash Flow 63.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -5.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 116.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 21.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Return On Total Capital 3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.8%
Return On Equity 3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.8%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 77.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 80%
EBITDA Margin 25%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.2%
Operating Margin 10.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17%
Pre-Tax Margin 10.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17%
Net Profit Margin 6.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.9%
Effective Tax Rate 40%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 34%
Payout Ratio 266.7%

REIS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the REIS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $48 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Reis. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Reis. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our REIS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for REIS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Reis, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Reis.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of REIS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 77.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for REIS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Reis.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Reis. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the REIS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for REIS are equal to 41.7%.

Life of production assets of 10.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Reis operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for REIS is equal to -10%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $97 million for Reis - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 11.045 million for Reis is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Reis at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ [$$] New York Apartment Vacancies Projected to Soar   [12:07AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Reis posts 2Q profit   [Aug-01-17 09:33PM  Associated Press]
▶ Like this downtown Boston view? That'll be $9,000 a month.   [Jul-14-17 11:15AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ [$$] Office Market Growth Slows   [Jul-04-17 08:00AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Reis, Inc. : May 16, 2017   [May-16-17 12:59PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Investor Network: Reis, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [May-09-17 09:30AM  Accesswire]
▶ Reis posts 1Q profit   [09:01AM  Associated Press]
▶ Apartment Market Slumps as Supply Surges   [Mar-30-17 08:00AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Apartment Market Slumps as Supply Surges   [08:00AM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Reis reports 4Q loss   [08:58AM  Associated Press]
▶ Reis, Inc. to Present at the 29th Annual Roth Conference   [Mar-07-17 08:45AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Reis, Inc. Authorizes Stock Repurchase Program   [Aug-30-16 08:45AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Small-Cap, Growth & Dividends: Do They Go Together?   [Jul-08-16 12:29PM  at Barrons.com]
▶ Boston clearly among the strongest office markets in U.S.   [Jul-05-16 02:05PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ U.S. office vacancy rate falls to seven-year low   [Jul-04-16 11:35PM  Reuters]
▶ Reis, Inc. Launches New Office Rent Comparables Report   [Jun-08-16 10:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Reis posts 1Q profit   [08:48AM  AP]
Stock chart of REIS Financial statements of REIS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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