Intrinsic value of Richardson Electronics - RELL

Previous Close

$6.56

  Intrinsic Value

$2.46

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-63%

  Value-price divergence*

-53%

Previous close

$6.56

 
Intrinsic value

$2.46

 
Up/down potential

-63%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-53%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of RELL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -3.52
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  137
  140
  143
  147
  151
  155
  160
  166
  172
  178
  185
  192
  200
  208
  217
  227
  236
  247
  258
  270
  282
  295
  309
  324
  339
  355
  372
  390
  409
  429
  449
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  147
  150
  154
  158
  163
  168
  174
  180
  187
  194
  201
  209
  218
  227
  237
  247
  258
  270
  282
  295
  309
  323
  339
  355
  372
  389
  408
  428
  449
  470
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  143
  147
  150
  154
  158
  163
  168
  174
  180
  187
  194
  201
  209
  218
  227
  237
  247
  258
  270
  282
  295
  309
  323
  339
  355
  372
  389
  408
  428
  449
  470
Operating income, $m
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
EBITDA, $m
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
Earnings before tax, $m
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
Tax expense, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  62
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  157
  97
  99
  102
  105
  108
  111
  115
  119
  123
  128
  133
  139
  144
  151
  157
  164
  171
  179
  187
  196
  205
  214
  224
  235
  246
  258
  270
  283
  297
  312
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  95
  97
  99
  102
  105
  108
  111
  115
  119
  123
  128
  133
  139
  144
  151
  157
  164
  171
  179
  187
  196
  205
  214
  224
  235
  246
  258
  270
  283
  297
  312
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.442
  1.443
  1.444
  1.441
  1.438
  1.435
  1.441
  1.443
  1.445
  1.447
  1.445
  1.444
  1.439
  1.444
  1.437
  1.446
  1.439
  1.444
  1.441
  1.444
  1.439
  1.439
  1.444
  1.446
  1.443
  1.443
  1.442
  1.444
  1.445
  1.444
  1.439
Average production assets, $m
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
Working capital, $m
  104
  43
  44
  45
  46
  48
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  120
  125
  132
  138
Total debt, $m
  0
  0
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  9
  10
  11
  13
  15
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  29
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  50
  53
  57
Total liabilities, $m
  25
  25
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
Total equity, $m
  132
  71
  73
  75
  77
  79
  82
  85
  88
  91
  95
  98
  102
  106
  111
  116
  121
  126
  132
  138
  144
  151
  158
  165
  173
  181
  190
  199
  209
  219
  230
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  157
  96
  99
  102
  104
  107
  111
  115
  119
  123
  129
  133
  138
  144
  151
  157
  164
  171
  179
  187
  195
  205
  214
  224
  235
  246
  258
  270
  284
  297
  312
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.010
  0.010
  0.020
  0.030
  0.040
  0.050
  0.060
  0.070
  0.080
  0.090
  0.100
  0.110
  0.120
  0.130
  0.140
  0.150
  0.160
  0.170
  0.180
  0.180
  0.190
  0.200
  0.210
  0.210
  0.220
  0.230
  0.230
  0.240
  0.240
  0.250
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737
  0.737

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
Funds from operations, $m
  7
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
Change in working capital, $m
  5
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
Cash from operations, $m
  2
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
New CAPEX, $m
  -5
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -4
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -10
  -10
Free cash flow, $m
  -2
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  36
  37
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -2
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  10
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  62
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  55
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  53
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  85.2
  72.3
  61.1
  51.5
  43.2
  36.2
  30.3
  25.3
  21.0
  17.5
  14.6
  12.2
  10.1
  8.4
  7.0
  5.8
  4.8
  4.0
  3.3
  2.7
  2.2
  1.9
  1.5
  1.3
  1.0
  0.8
  0.7
  0.6
  0.5
  0.4

Richardson Electronics, Ltd. is a provider of engineered solutions, power grid and microwave tubes, and related consumables; power conversion, and radio frequency (RF) and microwave components; high value displays, flat panel detector solutions and replacement parts for diagnostic imaging equipment, and customized display solutions. The Company's segments include Power and Microwave Technologies Group, which provides engineered solutions and distributes electronic components to customers in alternative energy, aviation, broadcast, communications, industrial, medical, military, scientific and semiconductor markets; Canvys, which provides customized display solutions to corporate enterprise, financial, healthcare, industrial and medical original equipment manufacturers markets, and Healthcare, which manufactures, distributes and services replacement parts for the healthcare market, including hospitals, medical centers, independent service organizations and multi-vendor service providers.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Richardson Electronics (RELL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -12
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 0.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 42.1
Price to Free Cash Flow -28.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -3.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 10.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -4.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.8%
Return On Total Capital -5.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.5%
Return On Equity -5.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.5%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 32.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.2%
EBITDA Margin -2.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.9%
Operating Margin -4.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -5%
Pre-Tax Margin -4.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.6%
Net Profit Margin -5.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.8%
Effective Tax Rate -16.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.3%
Payout Ratio -42.9%

RELL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the RELL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $137 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Richardson Electronics. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Richardson Electronics. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our RELL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for RELL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Richardson Electronics, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Richardson Electronics.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of RELL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 105.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for RELL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Richardson Electronics.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Richardson Electronics. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the RELL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for RELL are equal to 13.1%.

Life of production assets of 8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Richardson Electronics operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for RELL is equal to 30.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $132 million for Richardson Electronics - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 12.826 million for Richardson Electronics is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Richardson Electronics at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Richardson Electronics reports 1Q loss   [Oct-11-17 05:08PM  Associated Press]
▶ Valuable Earnings Insight on 2 Value Names   [Jul-21-17 12:30PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Richardson Electronics reports 4Q loss   [Jul-19-17 11:24PM  Associated Press]
▶ A Noteworthy Thursday for 4 Value Names   [May-26-17 10:00AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ FreightCar America Among Slim Deep-Value Pickings   [Apr-21-17 03:08PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Richardson Electronics reports 3Q loss   [Apr-05-17 05:20PM  Associated Press]
▶ Canvys Announces New True Flat G Series Custom Displays   [Feb-20-17 03:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Richardson Electronics Could Use a Spark   [Jan-30-17 12:00PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ 4 Top-Ranked Net-Net Working Capital Stocks   [Dec-30-16 10:51AM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Buy These 5 Stocks For Less Than Liquidation Value   [12:09PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Richardson Healthcare Announces XR-29 Compliance Solution   [Aug-01-16 11:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ Richardson Electronics Ships Large Federal Government Order   [Apr-22-16 11:12AM  Business Wire]
▶ Richardson Healthcare at RSNA 2015   [Nov-24  11:39AM  Business Wire]
Financial statements of RELL
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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