Intrinsic value of Resolute Energy - REN

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$28.90

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of REN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  5.81
  27.00
  24.80
  22.82
  21.04
  19.43
  17.99
  16.69
  15.52
  14.47
  13.52
  12.67
  11.90
  11.21
  10.59
  10.03
  9.53
  9.08
  8.67
  8.30
  7.97
  7.67
  7.41
  7.17
  6.95
  6.75
  6.58
  6.42
  6.28
  6.15
  6.04
Revenue, $m
  164
  197
  246
  302
  365
  436
  515
  601
  694
  794
  902
  1,016
  1,137
  1,264
  1,398
  1,538
  1,685
  1,838
  1,997
  2,163
  2,335
  2,515
  2,701
  2,895
  3,096
  3,305
  3,522
  3,748
  3,984
  4,229
  4,484
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  264
  330
  405
  490
  585
  691
  806
  931
  1,066
  1,210
  1,363
  1,525
  1,697
  1,876
  2,065
  2,261
  2,466
  2,680
  2,903
  3,134
  3,375
  3,625
  3,885
  4,154
  4,435
  4,727
  5,030
  5,346
  5,675
  6,018
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  256
  264
  330
  405
  490
  585
  691
  806
  931
  1,066
  1,210
  1,363
  1,525
  1,697
  1,876
  2,065
  2,261
  2,466
  2,680
  2,903
  3,134
  3,375
  3,625
  3,885
  4,154
  4,435
  4,727
  5,030
  5,346
  5,675
  6,018
Operating income, $m
  -92
  -67
  -84
  -103
  -125
  -149
  -176
  -205
  -237
  -272
  -308
  -347
  -389
  -432
  -478
  -526
  -576
  -629
  -683
  -740
  -799
  -860
  -924
  -990
  -1,059
  -1,130
  -1,205
  -1,282
  -1,362
  -1,446
  -1,534
EBITDA, $m
  -42
  52
  65
  80
  97
  115
  136
  159
  184
  210
  239
  269
  301
  335
  370
  407
  446
  486
  529
  572
  618
  666
  715
  766
  819
  875
  932
  992
  1,054
  1,119
  1,187
Interest expense (income), $m
  51
  52
  36
  47
  59
  73
  89
  106
  125
  146
  168
  192
  217
  244
  272
  302
  333
  366
  400
  435
  472
  510
  550
  591
  634
  678
  725
  773
  823
  875
  930
Earnings before tax, $m
  -162
  -119
  -120
  -150
  -184
  -222
  -265
  -312
  -363
  -418
  -476
  -539
  -606
  -676
  -750
  -828
  -909
  -994
  -1,083
  -1,175
  -1,270
  -1,370
  -1,473
  -1,581
  -1,692
  -1,809
  -1,929
  -2,055
  -2,186
  -2,322
  -2,463
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -162
  -119
  -120
  -150
  -184
  -222
  -265
  -312
  -363
  -418
  -476
  -539
  -606
  -676
  -750
  -828
  -909
  -994
  -1,083
  -1,175
  -1,270
  -1,370
  -1,473
  -1,581
  -1,692
  -1,809
  -1,929
  -2,055
  -2,186
  -2,322
  -2,463

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  133
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  588
  485
  605
  743
  900
  1,074
  1,268
  1,479
  1,709
  1,956
  2,221
  2,502
  2,800
  3,114
  3,444
  3,789
  4,150
  4,527
  4,919
  5,328
  5,752
  6,194
  6,653
  7,129
  7,625
  8,140
  8,676
  9,233
  9,812
  10,416
  11,045
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  455
  485
  605
  743
  900
  1,074
  1,268
  1,479
  1,709
  1,956
  2,221
  2,502
  2,800
  3,114
  3,444
  3,789
  4,150
  4,527
  4,919
  5,328
  5,752
  6,194
  6,653
  7,129
  7,625
  8,140
  8,676
  9,233
  9,812
  10,416
  11,045
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.360
  0.406
  0.407
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
  0.406
Average production assets, $m
  299
  931
  1,163
  1,428
  1,728
  2,064
  2,435
  2,842
  3,283
  3,758
  4,266
  4,807
  5,379
  5,982
  6,616
  7,280
  7,973
  8,697
  9,451
  10,236
  11,052
  11,900
  12,781
  13,697
  14,649
  15,639
  16,668
  17,738
  18,852
  20,011
  21,219
Working capital, $m
  -38
  92
  114
  140
  170
  203
  239
  279
  323
  369
  419
  472
  529
  588
  650
  715
  784
  855
  929
  1,006
  1,086
  1,169
  1,256
  1,346
  1,440
  1,537
  1,638
  1,743
  1,852
  1,966
  2,085
Total debt, $m
  406
  357
  466
  590
  731
  888
  1,062
  1,252
  1,459
  1,681
  1,920
  2,173
  2,441
  2,723
  3,020
  3,331
  3,656
  3,995
  4,348
  4,716
  5,098
  5,496
  5,908
  6,338
  6,783
  7,247
  7,729
  8,230
  8,752
  9,295
  9,861
Total liabilities, $m
  664
  436
  545
  669
  810
  967
  1,141
  1,331
  1,538
  1,760
  1,999
  2,252
  2,520
  2,802
  3,099
  3,410
  3,735
  4,074
  4,427
  4,795
  5,177
  5,575
  5,987
  6,417
  6,862
  7,326
  7,808
  8,309
  8,831
  9,374
  9,940
Total equity, $m
  -76
  48
  61
  74
  90
  107
  127
  148
  171
  196
  222
  250
  280
  311
  344
  379
  415
  453
  492
  533
  575
  619
  665
  713
  762
  814
  868
  923
  981
  1,042
  1,104
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  588
  484
  606
  743
  900
  1,074
  1,268
  1,479
  1,709
  1,956
  2,221
  2,502
  2,800
  3,113
  3,443
  3,789
  4,150
  4,527
  4,919
  5,328
  5,752
  6,194
  6,652
  7,130
  7,624
  8,140
  8,676
  9,232
  9,812
  10,416
  11,044
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -5.342
  7.370
  7.690
  7.940
  8.120
  8.260
  8.380
  8.470
  8.540
  8.600
  8.640
  8.680
  8.720
  8.750
  8.770
  8.790
  8.810
  8.830
  8.840
  8.850
  8.860
  8.870
  8.880
  8.890
  8.900
  8.900
  8.910
  8.910
  8.920
  8.920
  8.930
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.459
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -162
  -119
  -120
  -150
  -184
  -222
  -265
  -312
  -363
  -418
  -476
  -539
  -606
  -676
  -750
  -828
  -909
  -994
  -1,083
  -1,175
  -1,270
  -1,370
  -1,473
  -1,581
  -1,692
  -1,809
  -1,929
  -2,055
  -2,186
  -2,322
  -2,463
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  50
  119
  149
  183
  222
  265
  312
  364
  421
  482
  547
  616
  690
  767
  848
  933
  1,022
  1,115
  1,212
  1,312
  1,417
  1,526
  1,639
  1,756
  1,878
  2,005
  2,137
  2,274
  2,417
  2,566
  2,720
Funds from operations, $m
  102
  1
  29
  33
  38
  42
  47
  53
  58
  64
  70
  77
  84
  91
  98
  105
  113
  121
  129
  138
  147
  156
  165
  175
  186
  196
  208
  219
  231
  244
  257
Change in working capital, $m
  18
  19
  23
  26
  30
  33
  36
  40
  43
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  87
  90
  94
  97
  101
  105
  109
  114
  119
Cash from operations, $m
  84
  -528
  7
  7
  8
  9
  11
  13
  15
  18
  21
  24
  27
  31
  35
  40
  45
  50
  55
  61
  66
  72
  79
  85
  92
  99
  106
  114
  122
  130
  139
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -94
  -119
  -149
  -183
  -222
  -265
  -312
  -364
  -421
  -482
  -547
  -616
  -690
  -767
  -848
  -933
  -1,022
  -1,115
  -1,212
  -1,312
  -1,417
  -1,526
  -1,639
  -1,756
  -1,878
  -2,005
  -2,137
  -2,274
  -2,417
  -2,566
New CAPEX, $m
  -224
  -198
  -231
  -265
  -300
  -336
  -371
  -407
  -441
  -475
  -508
  -541
  -572
  -603
  -634
  -664
  -694
  -724
  -754
  -785
  -816
  -848
  -881
  -916
  -952
  -990
  -1,029
  -1,070
  -1,114
  -1,160
  -1,208
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -190
  -292
  -350
  -414
  -483
  -558
  -636
  -719
  -805
  -896
  -990
  -1,088
  -1,188
  -1,293
  -1,401
  -1,512
  -1,627
  -1,746
  -1,869
  -1,997
  -2,128
  -2,265
  -2,407
  -2,555
  -2,708
  -2,868
  -3,034
  -3,207
  -3,388
  -3,577
  -3,774
Free cash flow, $m
  -106
  -820
  -344
  -407
  -475
  -548
  -625
  -706
  -790
  -878
  -969
  -1,064
  -1,161
  -1,262
  -1,365
  -1,472
  -1,582
  -1,696
  -1,814
  -1,936
  -2,062
  -2,193
  -2,328
  -2,469
  -2,616
  -2,769
  -2,927
  -3,093
  -3,266
  -3,446
  -3,635
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  10
  -158
  108
  124
  141
  157
  174
  190
  207
  223
  238
  253
  268
  283
  297
  311
  325
  339
  353
  368
  382
  397
  413
  429
  446
  464
  482
  501
  522
  543
  566
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  221
  1,230
  248
  297
  350
  408
  470
  537
  607
  681
  758
  839
  923
  1,010
  1,101
  1,196
  1,293
  1,395
  1,500
  1,609
  1,722
  1,839
  1,961
  2,088
  2,220
  2,356
  2,499
  2,647
  2,802
  2,964
  3,132
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  231
  1,072
  356
  421
  491
  565
  644
  727
  814
  904
  996
  1,092
  1,191
  1,293
  1,398
  1,507
  1,618
  1,734
  1,853
  1,977
  2,104
  2,236
  2,374
  2,517
  2,666
  2,820
  2,981
  3,148
  3,324
  3,507
  3,698
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  124
  -978
  -236
  -283
  -335
  -391
  -451
  -515
  -584
  -656
  -731
  -811
  -893
  -979
  -1,068
  -1,161
  -1,257
  -1,357
  -1,461
  -1,568
  -1,680
  -1,795
  -1,915
  -2,040
  -2,170
  -2,305
  -2,445
  -2,592
  -2,744
  -2,903
  -3,069
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -127
  -260
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -63
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  9
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  14.00
  14.70
  15.44
  16.21
  17.02
  17.87
  18.76
  19.70
  20.68
  21.72
  22.80
  23.94
  25.14
  26.40
  27.72
  29.10
  30.56
  32.09
  33.69
  35.38
  37.15
  39.00
  40.95
  43.00
  45.15
  47.41
  49.78
  52.27
  54.88
  57.63
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  8.2
  1.4
  0.2
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Resolute Energy Corporation, an independent oil and gas company, engages in the acquisition, exploitation, exploration for, and development of oil and gas properties in the United States. The company holds interests in the Aneth Field covering approximately 43,000 gross acres located in the Paradox Basin in southeast Utah; and covering 27,750 gross acres in the Permian Basin in west Texas and southeast New Mexico. As of December 31, 2015, its estimated net proved reserves were approximately 33.1 million barrels of oil equivalent. Resolute Energy Corporation was founded in 2004 and is based in Denver, Colorado.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Resolute Energy (REN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -3.9
Price to Sales 3.9
Price to Book -8.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.5
Price to Free Cash Flow -4.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 5.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 229.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -15.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -534.2%
Total Debt to Equity -534.2%
Interest Coverage -2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -22.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -32.2%
Return On Total Capital -50.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -48.3%
Return On Equity 116.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -115.3%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 51.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 47.2%
EBITDA Margin -37.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -129%
Operating Margin -56.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -197%
Pre-Tax Margin -98.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -200.1%
Net Profit Margin -98.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -194.7%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

REN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the REN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $155 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Resolute Energy. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Resolute Energy. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our REN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 27% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 14%, whose default value for REN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Resolute Energy, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Resolute Energy.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of REN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 134.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for REN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 10% for Resolute Energy.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Resolute Energy. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the REN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for REN are equal to 473.2%.

Life of production assets of 7.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Resolute Energy operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for REN is equal to 46.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-203 million for Resolute Energy - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 21.294 million for Resolute Energy is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Resolute Energy at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Resolute Energy Corporation Announces Exchange Offer   [Jun-05-17 04:34PM  GlobeNewswire]
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▶ Conference-OGIS New York for Resolute Energy Corp.   [Mar-08-17 05:56PM  at Company Spotlight]
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▶ 2 Signs You Should Sell Resolute Energy Corp.   [Nov-29-16 08:47AM  at Motley Fool]
Stock chart of REN Financial statements of REN Annual reports of REN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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