Intrinsic value of Rexford Industrial Realty - REXR

Previous Close

$28.36

  Intrinsic Value

$3.56

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-87%

  Value-price divergence*

+43%

Previous close

$28.36

 
Intrinsic value

$3.56

 
Up/down potential

-87%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+43%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as REXR.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of REXR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  34.04
  25.00
  23.00
  21.20
  19.58
  18.12
  16.81
  15.63
  14.57
  13.61
  12.75
  11.97
  11.28
  10.65
  10.08
  9.58
  9.12
  8.71
  8.34
  8.00
  7.70
  7.43
  7.19
  6.97
  6.77
  6.60
  6.44
  6.29
  6.16
  6.05
  5.94
Revenue, $m
  126
  158
  194
  235
  281
  332
  387
  448
  513
  583
  657
  736
  819
  906
  998
  1,093
  1,193
  1,297
  1,405
  1,517
  1,634
  1,756
  1,882
  2,013
  2,149
  2,291
  2,438
  2,592
  2,752
  2,918
  3,091
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  99
  121
  147
  176
  208
  243
  281
  322
  366
  412
  462
  514
  568
  626
  685
  748
  813
  881
  951
  1,025
  1,101
  1,180
  1,262
  1,348
  1,436
  1,529
  1,625
  1,725
  1,830
  1,938
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  27
  27
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  51
  52
  53
  55
Total operating expenses, $m
  104
  126
  148
  175
  205
  237
  273
  312
  354
  398
  445
  496
  549
  604
  663
  723
  787
  853
  922
  993
  1,068
  1,145
  1,225
  1,308
  1,395
  1,484
  1,578
  1,676
  1,777
  1,883
  1,993
Operating income, $m
  22
  32
  45
  60
  76
  94
  114
  136
  160
  185
  212
  240
  271
  302
  335
  370
  406
  444
  483
  524
  567
  611
  657
  705
  755
  806
  860
  916
  974
  1,035
  1,099
EBITDA, $m
  73
  96
  123
  155
  190
  228
  271
  317
  367
  421
  478
  538
  602
  669
  739
  812
  889
  969
  1,052
  1,138
  1,228
  1,322
  1,419
  1,519
  1,624
  1,733
  1,847
  1,965
  2,088
  2,216
  2,349
Interest expense (income), $m
  14
  18
  23
  28
  35
  42
  50
  59
  69
  79
  91
  103
  115
  128
  142
  157
  172
  188
  205
  222
  240
  259
  278
  298
  319
  341
  364
  387
  412
  438
  464
Earnings before tax, $m
  26
  15
  22
  31
  41
  52
  64
  77
  91
  106
  121
  138
  155
  174
  193
  213
  234
  256
  279
  302
  327
  352
  379
  407
  435
  465
  496
  529
  562
  598
  634
Tax expense, $m
  0
  4
  6
  8
  11
  14
  17
  21
  24
  28
  33
  37
  42
  47
  52
  58
  63
  69
  75
  82
  88
  95
  102
  110
  118
  126
  134
  143
  152
  161
  171
Net income, $m
  25
  11
  16
  23
  30
  38
  47
  56
  66
  77
  89
  101
  113
  127
  141
  156
  171
  187
  203
  221
  239
  257
  277
  297
  318
  340
  362
  386
  411
  436
  463

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  16
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,515
  1,875
  2,306
  2,795
  3,342
  3,948
  4,612
  5,333
  6,109
  6,941
  7,826
  8,763
  9,751
  10,789
  11,877
  13,014
  14,201
  15,437
  16,724
  18,062
  19,453
  20,899
  22,401
  23,963
  25,586
  27,273
  29,028
  30,855
  32,756
  34,737
  36,801
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,499
  1,875
  2,306
  2,795
  3,342
  3,948
  4,612
  5,333
  6,109
  6,941
  7,826
  8,763
  9,751
  10,789
  11,877
  13,014
  14,201
  15,437
  16,724
  18,062
  19,453
  20,899
  22,401
  23,963
  25,586
  27,273
  29,028
  30,855
  32,756
  34,737
  36,801
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
Average production assets, $m
  1,290
  1,612
  1,983
  2,404
  2,874
  3,395
  3,966
  4,586
  5,254
  5,969
  6,730
  7,536
  8,386
  9,279
  10,214
  11,192
  12,213
  13,276
  14,383
  15,533
  16,730
  17,973
  19,265
  20,608
  22,003
  23,455
  24,964
  26,535
  28,170
  29,874
  31,649
Working capital, $m
  0
  -16
  -19
  -23
  -28
  -33
  -39
  -45
  -51
  -58
  -66
  -74
  -82
  -91
  -100
  -109
  -119
  -130
  -140
  -152
  -163
  -176
  -188
  -201
  -215
  -229
  -244
  -259
  -275
  -292
  -309
Total debt, $m
  500
  644
  810
  997
  1,208
  1,440
  1,695
  1,972
  2,270
  2,589
  2,929
  3,289
  3,668
  4,067
  4,485
  4,922
  5,377
  5,852
  6,346
  6,860
  7,394
  7,949
  8,526
  9,126
  9,749
  10,397
  11,071
  11,772
  12,502
  13,263
  14,056
Total liabilities, $m
  576
  720
  886
  1,073
  1,284
  1,516
  1,771
  2,048
  2,346
  2,665
  3,005
  3,365
  3,744
  4,143
  4,561
  4,998
  5,453
  5,928
  6,422
  6,936
  7,470
  8,025
  8,602
  9,202
  9,825
  10,473
  11,147
  11,848
  12,578
  13,339
  14,132
Total equity, $m
  939
  1,155
  1,421
  1,722
  2,059
  2,432
  2,841
  3,285
  3,763
  4,276
  4,821
  5,398
  6,007
  6,646
  7,316
  8,017
  8,748
  9,509
  10,302
  11,126
  11,983
  12,874
  13,799
  14,761
  15,761
  16,800
  17,881
  19,007
  20,178
  21,398
  22,670
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,515
  1,875
  2,307
  2,795
  3,343
  3,948
  4,612
  5,333
  6,109
  6,941
  7,826
  8,763
  9,751
  10,789
  11,877
  13,015
  14,201
  15,437
  16,724
  18,062
  19,453
  20,899
  22,401
  23,963
  25,586
  27,273
  29,028
  30,855
  32,756
  34,737
  36,802
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.532
  0.560
  0.570
  0.580
  0.590
  0.590
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.620
  0.620
  0.620
  0.620
  0.620
  0.620
  0.620
  0.620
  0.620
  0.620
  0.620
  0.620
  0.620
  0.620
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  25
  11
  16
  23
  30
  38
  47
  56
  66
  77
  89
  101
  113
  127
  141
  156
  171
  187
  203
  221
  239
  257
  277
  297
  318
  340
  362
  386
  411
  436
  463
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  51
  64
  78
  95
  114
  134
  157
  181
  208
  236
  266
  298
  331
  367
  404
  442
  483
  525
  568
  614
  661
  710
  761
  815
  870
  927
  987
  1,049
  1,113
  1,181
  1,251
Funds from operations, $m
  48
  74
  95
  118
  144
  172
  203
  237
  274
  313
  355
  399
  445
  494
  545
  598
  654
  712
  772
  835
  900
  968
  1,038
  1,111
  1,187
  1,267
  1,349
  1,435
  1,524
  1,617
  1,714
Change in working capital, $m
  -8
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
Cash from operations, $m
  56
  78
  98
  122
  148
  177
  209
  243
  280
  320
  362
  406
  453
  502
  554
  608
  664
  722
  783
  846
  912
  980
  1,051
  1,124
  1,201
  1,281
  1,364
  1,450
  1,540
  1,634
  1,731
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -51
  -64
  -78
  -95
  -114
  -134
  -157
  -181
  -208
  -236
  -266
  -298
  -331
  -367
  -404
  -442
  -483
  -525
  -568
  -614
  -661
  -710
  -761
  -815
  -870
  -927
  -987
  -1,049
  -1,113
  -1,181
New CAPEX, $m
  -32
  -322
  -371
  -420
  -471
  -521
  -571
  -620
  -668
  -715
  -761
  -806
  -850
  -893
  -936
  -978
  -1,020
  -1,063
  -1,107
  -1,151
  -1,196
  -1,243
  -1,292
  -1,343
  -1,396
  -1,451
  -1,509
  -1,571
  -1,635
  -1,703
  -1,775
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -361
  -373
  -435
  -498
  -566
  -635
  -705
  -777
  -849
  -923
  -997
  -1,072
  -1,148
  -1,224
  -1,303
  -1,382
  -1,462
  -1,546
  -1,632
  -1,719
  -1,810
  -1,904
  -2,002
  -2,104
  -2,211
  -2,321
  -2,436
  -2,558
  -2,684
  -2,816
  -2,956
Free cash flow, $m
  -305
  -296
  -336
  -377
  -417
  -457
  -496
  -533
  -569
  -603
  -635
  -665
  -694
  -722
  -749
  -774
  -799
  -824
  -849
  -874
  -899
  -925
  -952
  -980
  -1,009
  -1,040
  -1,073
  -1,107
  -1,144
  -1,183
  -1,225
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  84
  144
  166
  188
  210
  233
  255
  277
  298
  319
  340
  360
  379
  399
  418
  437
  456
  475
  494
  514
  534
  555
  577
  600
  623
  648
  674
  701
  730
  761
  793
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  269
  221
  249
  278
  307
  335
  362
  388
  412
  435
  457
  477
  495
  513
  529
  545
  560
  575
  589
  604
  618
  633
  649
  665
  682
  700
  719
  739
  761
  784
  808
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  351
  365
  415
  466
  517
  568
  617
  665
  710
  754
  797
  837
  874
  912
  947
  982
  1,016
  1,050
  1,083
  1,118
  1,152
  1,188
  1,226
  1,265
  1,305
  1,348
  1,393
  1,440
  1,491
  1,545
  1,601
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  46
  69
  79
  89
  100
  110
  121
  131
  142
  152
  161
  171
  180
  189
  198
  207
  216
  226
  235
  244
  254
  264
  274
  285
  296
  308
  320
  333
  347
  361
  376
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -267
  -232
  -266
  -301
  -337
  -373
  -409
  -444
  -478
  -512
  -545
  -577
  -609
  -640
  -670
  -701
  -731
  -762
  -793
  -824
  -857
  -891
  -925
  -962
  -1,000
  -1,039
  -1,081
  -1,125
  -1,171
  -1,220
  -1,271
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  16
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -147
  -187
  -212
  -237
  -263
  -288
  -313
  -337
  -361
  -384
  -406
  -428
  -450
  -472
  -493
  -515
  -536
  -558
  -580
  -603
  -627
  -651
  -677
  -704
  -732
  -761
  -792
  -825
  -859
  -895
Discount rate, %
 
  7.20
  7.56
  7.94
  8.33
  8.75
  9.19
  9.65
  10.13
  10.64
  11.17
  11.73
  12.31
  12.93
  13.58
  14.26
  14.97
  15.72
  16.50
  17.33
  18.19
  19.10
  20.06
  21.06
  22.11
  23.22
  24.38
  25.60
  26.88
  28.22
  29.64
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -137
  -162
  -169
  -172
  -173
  -170
  -164
  -156
  -145
  -133
  -120
  -106
  -93
  -79
  -67
  -55
  -45
  -36
  -28
  -21
  -16
  -12
  -8
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  89.3
  80.5
  73.3
  67.3
  62.2
  57.9
  54.2
  51.0
  48.2
  45.7
  43.6
  41.6
  39.9
  38.4
  37.0
  35.8
  34.6
  33.6
  32.6
  31.7
  30.9
  30.1
  29.4
  28.8
  28.1
  27.5
  27.0
  26.5
  26.0
  25.5

Rexford Industrial Realty, Inc. is an equity real estate investment trust. The firm invests in the real estate markets of Southern California, United States. It engages in owning, operating and acquiring industrial properties. Rexford Industrial Realty, Inc. was formed in January 18, 2013 and is based in Los Angeles, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Rexford Industrial Realty (REXR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 75.4
Price to Sales 15
Price to Book 2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 33.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 78.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 34%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 45.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 60.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 53.2%
Total Debt to Equity 53.2%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.5%
Return On Total Capital 2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.8%
Return On Equity 3.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.2%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 73.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 73%
EBITDA Margin 72.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 58.7%
Operating Margin 17.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 20.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Net Profit Margin 19.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 144%

REXR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the REXR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $126 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Rexford Industrial Realty. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Rexford Industrial Realty. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our REXR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 25% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.2%, whose default value for REXR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Rexford Industrial Realty, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Rexford Industrial Realty.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of REXR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 62.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $26 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for REXR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Rexford Industrial Realty.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Rexford Industrial Realty. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the REXR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for REXR are equal to 1023.8%.

Life of production assets of 25.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Rexford Industrial Realty operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for REXR is equal to -10%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $939 million for Rexford Industrial Realty - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 65.972 million for Rexford Industrial Realty is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Rexford Industrial Realty at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Rexford Industrial reports 2Q results   [Aug-01-17 11:04PM  Associated Press]
▶ Rexford Industrial To Present At NAREIT's REITWeek 2017   [May-31-17 04:05PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Rexford Industrial reports 1Q results   [May-03-17 06:21PM  Associated Press]
▶ Rexford Industrial reports 4Q results   [Feb-16-17 04:29PM  Associated Press]
▶ Is Simmons First National Corporation (SFNC) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-18-16 10:03AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Is New York REIT Inc (NYRT) a Good Stock To Invest In?   [Dec-09-16 12:21PM  at Insider Monkey]
Stock chart of REXR Financial statements of REXR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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