Intrinsic value of Rexford Industrial Realty - REXR

Previous Close

$30.58

  Intrinsic Value

$3.30

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-89%

Previous close

$30.58

 
Intrinsic value

$3.30

 
Up/down potential

-89%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as REXR.

We calculate the intrinsic value of REXR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  34.04
  19.40
  17.96
  16.66
  15.50
  14.45
  13.50
  12.65
  11.89
  11.20
  10.58
  10.02
  9.52
  9.07
  8.66
  8.29
  7.96
  7.67
  7.40
  7.16
  6.95
  6.75
  6.58
  6.42
  6.28
  6.15
  6.03
  5.93
  5.84
  5.75
  5.68
Revenue, $m
  126
  150
  177
  207
  239
  274
  311
  350
  392
  435
  481
  530
  580
  633
  687
  744
  804
  865
  929
  996
  1,065
  1,137
  1,212
  1,290
  1,371
  1,455
  1,543
  1,634
  1,730
  1,829
  1,933
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  94
  111
  130
  150
  172
  195
  219
  245
  273
  302
  332
  364
  397
  431
  467
  504
  543
  583
  625
  668
  713
  760
  809
  859
  912
  967
  1,025
  1,084
  1,147
  1,212
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  27
  27
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  51
  52
  53
  55
Total operating expenses, $m
  104
  121
  138
  158
  179
  201
  225
  250
  277
  305
  335
  366
  399
  433
  468
  505
  543
  583
  624
  667
  711
  757
  805
  855
  906
  960
  1,016
  1,076
  1,136
  1,200
  1,267
Operating income, $m
  22
  29
  39
  49
  60
  73
  86
  100
  114
  130
  146
  163
  181
  200
  220
  240
  261
  283
  306
  330
  355
  380
  407
  435
  464
  494
  526
  559
  593
  629
  666
EBITDA, $m
  73
  90
  111
  133
  157
  183
  211
  241
  273
  306
  341
  378
  416
  456
  498
  541
  586
  633
  682
  733
  786
  841
  898
  957
  1,019
  1,083
  1,150
  1,220
  1,293
  1,369
  1,449
Interest expense (income), $m
  14
  18
  21
  26
  30
  36
  41
  47
  53
  60
  67
  74
  82
  90
  99
  107
  116
  126
  136
  146
  157
  168
  179
  191
  204
  217
  230
  244
  259
  274
  290
Earnings before tax, $m
  26
  12
  17
  23
  30
  37
  45
  53
  61
  70
  79
  89
  99
  110
  121
  133
  145
  157
  170
  184
  198
  213
  228
  244
  261
  278
  296
  315
  334
  355
  376
Tax expense, $m
  0
  3
  5
  6
  8
  10
  12
  14
  16
  19
  21
  24
  27
  30
  33
  36
  39
  42
  46
  50
  53
  57
  62
  66
  70
  75
  80
  85
  90
  96
  102
Net income, $m
  25
  9
  13
  17
  22
  27
  33
  38
  45
  51
  58
  65
  73
  80
  88
  97
  106
  115
  124
  134
  145
  155
  166
  178
  190
  203
  216
  230
  244
  259
  275

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  16
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,515
  1,791
  2,113
  2,465
  2,847
  3,258
  3,698
  4,166
  4,661
  5,183
  5,731
  6,306
  6,906
  7,532
  8,184
  8,863
  9,569
  10,303
  11,065
  11,858
  12,681
  13,537
  14,428
  15,354
  16,317
  17,320
  18,366
  19,455
  20,590
  21,775
  23,011
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,499
  1,791
  2,113
  2,465
  2,847
  3,258
  3,698
  4,166
  4,661
  5,183
  5,731
  6,306
  6,906
  7,532
  8,184
  8,863
  9,569
  10,303
  11,065
  11,858
  12,681
  13,537
  14,428
  15,354
  16,317
  17,320
  18,366
  19,455
  20,590
  21,775
  23,011
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
Average production assets, $m
  1,290
  1,540
  1,817
  2,120
  2,448
  2,802
  3,180
  3,583
  4,008
  4,457
  4,929
  5,423
  5,939
  6,477
  7,038
  7,622
  8,229
  8,860
  9,516
  10,198
  10,906
  11,642
  12,408
  13,204
  14,033
  14,895
  15,794
  16,731
  17,708
  18,726
  19,790
Working capital, $m
  0
  -19
  -23
  -26
  -30
  -35
  -39
  -44
  -50
  -55
  -61
  -67
  -74
  -80
  -87
  -95
  -102
  -110
  -118
  -126
  -135
  -144
  -154
  -164
  -174
  -185
  -196
  -208
  -220
  -232
  -245
Total debt, $m
  500
  612
  735
  870
  1,017
  1,175
  1,344
  1,524
  1,714
  1,914
  2,125
  2,345
  2,576
  2,816
  3,067
  3,327
  3,598
  3,880
  4,173
  4,477
  4,794
  5,122
  5,464
  5,820
  6,190
  6,575
  6,976
  7,395
  7,831
  8,286
  8,760
Total liabilities, $m
  576
  688
  811
  946
  1,093
  1,251
  1,420
  1,600
  1,790
  1,990
  2,201
  2,421
  2,652
  2,892
  3,143
  3,403
  3,674
  3,956
  4,249
  4,553
  4,870
  5,198
  5,540
  5,896
  6,266
  6,651
  7,052
  7,471
  7,907
  8,362
  8,836
Total equity, $m
  939
  1,103
  1,301
  1,518
  1,754
  2,007
  2,278
  2,566
  2,871
  3,193
  3,530
  3,884
  4,254
  4,640
  5,042
  5,460
  5,895
  6,347
  6,816
  7,304
  7,812
  8,339
  8,887
  9,458
  10,051
  10,669
  11,313
  11,984
  12,684
  13,413
  14,175
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,515
  1,791
  2,112
  2,464
  2,847
  3,258
  3,698
  4,166
  4,661
  5,183
  5,731
  6,305
  6,906
  7,532
  8,185
  8,863
  9,569
  10,303
  11,065
  11,857
  12,682
  13,537
  14,427
  15,354
  16,317
  17,320
  18,365
  19,455
  20,591
  21,775
  23,011
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.532
  0.550
  0.560
  0.570
  0.580
  0.590
  0.590
  0.590
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.620
  0.620
  0.620
  0.620
  0.620
  0.620
  0.620
  0.620
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  25
  9
  13
  17
  22
  27
  33
  38
  45
  51
  58
  65
  73
  80
  88
  97
  106
  115
  124
  134
  145
  155
  166
  178
  190
  203
  216
  230
  244
  259
  275
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  51
  61
  72
  84
  97
  111
  126
  142
  158
  176
  195
  214
  235
  256
  278
  301
  325
  350
  376
  403
  431
  460
  490
  522
  555
  589
  624
  661
  700
  740
  782
Funds from operations, $m
  48
  70
  85
  101
  119
  138
  158
  180
  203
  227
  253
  279
  307
  336
  367
  398
  431
  465
  500
  537
  576
  615
  657
  700
  745
  792
  840
  891
  944
  999
  1,057
Change in working capital, $m
  -8
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
Cash from operations, $m
  56
  73
  88
  105
  123
  142
  163
  185
  208
  233
  259
  285
  314
  343
  374
  405
  438
  473
  509
  546
  584
  625
  666
  710
  755
  802
  851
  903
  956
  1,012
  1,070
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -51
  -61
  -72
  -84
  -97
  -111
  -126
  -142
  -158
  -176
  -195
  -214
  -235
  -256
  -278
  -301
  -325
  -350
  -376
  -403
  -431
  -460
  -490
  -522
  -555
  -589
  -624
  -661
  -700
  -740
New CAPEX, $m
  -32
  -250
  -277
  -303
  -328
  -354
  -378
  -402
  -426
  -449
  -472
  -494
  -516
  -538
  -561
  -584
  -607
  -631
  -656
  -681
  -708
  -736
  -766
  -796
  -829
  -863
  -899
  -937
  -977
  -1,019
  -1,063
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -361
  -301
  -338
  -375
  -412
  -451
  -489
  -528
  -568
  -607
  -648
  -689
  -730
  -773
  -817
  -862
  -908
  -956
  -1,006
  -1,057
  -1,111
  -1,167
  -1,226
  -1,286
  -1,351
  -1,418
  -1,488
  -1,561
  -1,638
  -1,719
  -1,803
Free cash flow, $m
  -305
  -229
  -250
  -270
  -290
  -308
  -326
  -343
  -359
  -375
  -389
  -403
  -417
  -430
  -443
  -457
  -470
  -483
  -497
  -512
  -527
  -543
  -559
  -577
  -595
  -615
  -636
  -658
  -682
  -707
  -733
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  84
  112
  124
  135
  147
  158
  169
  180
  190
  200
  211
  221
  230
  240
  250
  261
  271
  282
  293
  304
  316
  329
  342
  356
  370
  385
  401
  418
  436
  455
  475
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  269
  172
  185
  200
  213
  226
  238
  250
  260
  270
  280
  289
  297
  305
  313
  321
  329
  337
  345
  354
  363
  372
  382
  392
  403
  415
  428
  441
  455
  471
  487
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  351
  284
  309
  335
  360
  384
  407
  430
  450
  470
  491
  510
  527
  545
  563
  582
  600
  619
  638
  658
  679
  701
  724
  748
  773
  800
  829
  859
  891
  926
  962
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  46
  55
  59
  65
  71
  76
  81
  86
  91
  96
  101
  106
  111
  116
  120
  125
  130
  136
  141
  146
  152
  158
  164
  171
  178
  185
  193
  201
  210
  219
  228
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -267
  -180
  -198
  -217
  -235
  -253
  -271
  -288
  -305
  -322
  -338
  -354
  -370
  -386
  -402
  -418
  -435
  -452
  -470
  -488
  -507
  -527
  -548
  -570
  -594
  -618
  -644
  -671
  -700
  -730
  -762
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  16
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -110
  -139
  -152
  -165
  -177
  -190
  -202
  -214
  -225
  -236
  -248
  -259
  -270
  -281
  -293
  -304
  -317
  -329
  -342
  -355
  -369
  -384
  -399
  -416
  -433
  -451
  -470
  -490
  -511
  -533
Discount rate, %
 
  7.20
  7.56
  7.94
  8.33
  8.75
  9.19
  9.65
  10.13
  10.64
  11.17
  11.73
  12.31
  12.93
  13.58
  14.26
  14.97
  15.72
  16.50
  17.33
  18.19
  19.10
  20.06
  21.06
  22.11
  23.22
  24.38
  25.60
  26.88
  28.22
  29.64
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -102
  -120
  -121
  -120
  -117
  -112
  -106
  -99
  -91
  -82
  -73
  -64
  -56
  -47
  -40
  -33
  -26
  -21
  -16
  -13
  -9
  -7
  -5
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  92.6
  86.3
  81.0
  76.3
  72.3
  68.8
  65.7
  62.9
  60.5
  58.3
  56.3
  54.5
  52.9
  51.4
  50.0
  48.7
  47.5
  46.5
  45.4
  44.5
  43.6
  42.7
  41.9
  41.2
  40.5
  39.8
  39.1
  38.5
  37.9
  37.3

Rexford Industrial Realty, Inc. is a self-administered and self-managed full-service real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company is focused on owning, operating and acquiring industrial properties in Southern California infill markets. Rexford Industrial Realty, L.P. is the operating partnership of the Company. Through its controlling interest in Operating Partnership and its subsidiaries, the Company owns, manages, leases, acquires and develops industrial real estate located in Southern California infill markets, and from time to time, acquires or provides mortgage debt secured by industrial property. As of July 19, 2017, the Company's consolidated portfolio consisted of 142 properties with approximately 17.7 million rentable square feet. In addition, the Company managed an additional 19 properties with approximately 1.2 million rentable square feet.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Rexford Industrial Realty (REXR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 81.3
Price to Sales 16.1
Price to Book 2.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 36.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 84.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 34%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 45.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 60.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 53.2%
Total Debt to Equity 53.2%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.5%
Return On Total Capital 2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.8%
Return On Equity 3.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.2%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 73.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 73%
EBITDA Margin 72.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 58.7%
Operating Margin 17.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 20.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Net Profit Margin 19.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 144%

REXR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the REXR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $126 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Rexford Industrial Realty. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Rexford Industrial Realty. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our REXR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 19.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.2%, whose default value for REXR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Rexford Industrial Realty, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Rexford Industrial Realty.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of REXR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 62.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $26 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for REXR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Rexford Industrial Realty.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Rexford Industrial Realty. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the REXR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for REXR are equal to 1023.8%.

Life of production assets of 25.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Rexford Industrial Realty operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for REXR is equal to -12.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $939 million for Rexford Industrial Realty - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 71.214 million for Rexford Industrial Realty is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Rexford Industrial Realty at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Rexford Industrial Realty, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [Nov-01-17 09:00AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Rexford Industrial reports 3Q results   [Oct-31-17 04:45PM  Associated Press]
▶ Rexford Industrial reports 2Q results   [Aug-01-17 11:04PM  Associated Press]
▶ Rexford Industrial To Present At NAREIT's REITWeek 2017   [May-31-17 04:05PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Rexford Industrial reports 1Q results   [May-03-17 06:21PM  Associated Press]
▶ Rexford Industrial reports 4Q results   [Feb-16-17 04:29PM  Associated Press]
▶ Is Simmons First National Corporation (SFNC) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-18-16 10:03AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Is New York REIT Inc (NYRT) a Good Stock To Invest In?   [Dec-09-16 12:21PM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of REXR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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