Intrinsic value of Repligen - RGEN

Previous Close

$44.32

  Intrinsic Value

$14.39

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-68%

  Value-price divergence*

+34%

Previous close

$44.32

 
Intrinsic value

$14.39

 
Up/down potential

-68%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+34%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of RGEN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  25.00
  10.30
  9.77
  9.29
  8.86
  8.48
  8.13
  7.82
  7.53
  7.28
  7.05
  6.85
  6.66
  6.50
  6.35
  6.21
  6.09
  5.98
  5.88
  5.80
  5.72
  5.64
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
Revenue, $m
  105
  116
  127
  139
  151
  164
  177
  191
  206
  221
  236
  252
  269
  287
  305
  324
  344
  364
  386
  408
  431
  456
  481
  508
  535
  564
  595
  627
  660
  695
  731
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  96
  105
  114
  124
  134
  145
  155
  167
  178
  190
  197
  210
  224
  238
  253
  268
  284
  301
  319
  337
  356
  376
  396
  418
  441
  464
  489
  515
  542
  571
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  89
  96
  105
  114
  124
  134
  145
  155
  167
  178
  190
  197
  210
  224
  238
  253
  268
  284
  301
  319
  337
  356
  376
  396
  418
  441
  464
  489
  515
  542
  571
Operating income, $m
  16
  19
  22
  24
  27
  30
  33
  36
  39
  42
  46
  55
  59
  63
  67
  71
  75
  80
  84
  89
  95
  100
  105
  111
  117
  124
  130
  137
  145
  152
  160
EBITDA, $m
  21
  28
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  50
  54
  57
  61
  65
  70
  74
  79
  83
  88
  93
  99
  105
  110
  117
  123
  130
  137
  144
  152
  160
  168
  177
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
Earnings before tax, $m
  12
  16
  18
  20
  22
  25
  27
  30
  32
  35
  38
  47
  50
  53
  56
  60
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  83
  88
  93
  98
  103
  109
  114
  120
  127
  133
Tax expense, $m
  0
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
Net income, $m
  12
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  34
  36
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
  79
  83
  88
  92
  97

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  142
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  289
  162
  178
  195
  212
  230
  248
  268
  288
  309
  331
  354
  377
  402
  427
  454
  481
  510
  540
  571
  604
  638
  674
  711
  750
  790
  833
  877
  924
  973
  1,024
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  147
  162
  178
  195
  212
  230
  248
  268
  288
  309
  331
  354
  377
  402
  427
  454
  481
  510
  540
  571
  604
  638
  674
  711
  750
  790
  833
  877
  924
  973
  1,024
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.714
  0.716
  0.713
  0.713
  0.712
  0.713
  0.714
  0.713
  0.715
  0.715
  0.713
  0.712
  0.714
  0.714
  0.714
  0.714
  0.715
  0.714
  0.715
  0.715
  0.714
  0.715
  0.714
  0.714
  0.713
  0.714
  0.714
  0.715
  0.714
  0.714
  0.714
Average production assets, $m
  36
  39
  43
  47
  51
  55
  60
  65
  70
  75
  80
  85
  91
  97
  103
  109
  116
  123
  130
  138
  146
  154
  163
  172
  181
  191
  201
  212
  223
  235
  247
Working capital, $m
  163
  23
  25
  28
  30
  33
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  54
  57
  61
  65
  69
  73
  77
  82
  86
  91
  96
  102
  107
  113
  119
  125
  132
  139
  146
Total debt, $m
  95
  107
  120
  134
  148
  163
  178
  194
  210
  227
  245
  263
  283
  303
  324
  345
  368
  391
  416
  441
  468
  496
  525
  555
  587
  620
  655
  691
  729
  769
  810
Total liabilities, $m
  120
  132
  145
  159
  173
  188
  203
  219
  235
  252
  270
  288
  308
  328
  349
  370
  393
  416
  441
  466
  493
  521
  550
  580
  612
  645
  680
  716
  754
  794
  835
Total equity, $m
  169
  30
  33
  36
  39
  42
  46
  49
  53
  57
  61
  65
  69
  74
  79
  83
  89
  94
  99
  105
  111
  117
  124
  131
  138
  145
  153
  161
  170
  179
  188
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  289
  162
  178
  195
  212
  230
  249
  268
  288
  309
  331
  353
  377
  402
  428
  453
  482
  510
  540
  571
  604
  638
  674
  711
  750
  790
  833
  877
  924
  973
  1,023
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.562
  3.600
  3.670
  3.740
  3.790
  3.840
  3.890
  3.930
  3.960
  4.000
  4.020
  4.050
  4.070
  4.100
  4.120
  4.140
  4.150
  4.170
  4.180
  4.200
  4.210
  4.220
  4.230
  4.240
  4.250
  4.260
  4.270
  4.280
  4.290
  4.300
  4.300
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  12
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  34
  36
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
  79
  83
  88
  92
  97
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  5
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
Funds from operations, $m
  -8
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  37
  39
  40
  43
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  61
  64
  68
  72
  75
  80
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
  109
  114
Change in working capital, $m
  -16
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
Cash from operations, $m
  8
  18
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  34
  36
  37
  39
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
  56
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  78
  83
  87
  92
  97
  102
  107
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
New CAPEX, $m
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -49
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
Free cash flow, $m
  -41
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  64
  67
  71
  75
  79
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  111
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  112
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  68
  25
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  43
  44
  47
  50
  52
  55
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  80
  84
  89
  94
  98
  103
  109
  114
  120
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -46
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  142
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  164
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  40
  43
  45
  48
  51
  53
  56
  60
  63
  66
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
  91
  95
  100
  105
  111
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  157
  21
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  21
  21
  19
  18
  17
  16
  15
  14
  12
  11
  10
  8
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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Repligen Corporation is a bioprocessing company. The Company is focused on the development, manufacture and commercialization of products used to improve the interconnected phases of the biological drug manufacturing process. The Company's portfolio includes protein products, chromatography products, and filtration products. It provides Protein A ligands, a component of Protein A chromatography resins (media) used in the purification of virtually all monoclonal antibody (mAb)-based drugs on the market or in development. Its chromatography portfolio includes various products used in the downstream purification and quality control of biological drugs. Its OPUS pre-packed chromatography columns (PPCs) are used in the purification of clinical-stage biologics. Its filtration products include XCell Alternating Tangential Flow (ATF) Systems and Sius tangential flow filtration (TFF) cassettes. Sius TFF cassettes are used to concentrate clinical and commercial-stage biologic drugs.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Repligen (RGEN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 125
Price to Sales 14.3
Price to Book 8.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 187.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 374.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 25%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 33.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -4.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 56.2%
Total Debt to Equity 56.2%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.2%
Return On Total Capital 6.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Return On Equity 8.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 54.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 55.9%
EBITDA Margin 16.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.4%
Operating Margin 15.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 11.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.7%
Net Profit Margin 11.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.5%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

RGEN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the RGEN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $105 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Repligen. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Repligen. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our RGEN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for RGEN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Repligen, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Repligen.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of RGEN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 83.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for RGEN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Repligen.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Repligen. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the RGEN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for RGEN are equal to 33.8%.

Life of production assets of 14.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Repligen operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for RGEN is equal to 20%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $169 million for Repligen - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 36.786 million for Repligen is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Repligen at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.6 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
GE General Electr 23.93 17.24  sell
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BMRN BioMarin Pharm 91.91 3.69  str.sell
TMO Thermo Fisher 190.63 72.91  str.sell

COMPANY NEWS

▶ Repligen Announces Analyst Day and Webcast   [Sep-15-17 07:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Repligen beats Street 2Q forecasts   [Aug-03-17 06:26PM  Associated Press]
▶ Repligen beats Street 2Q forecasts   [10:43AM  Associated Press]
▶ Repligen to Report Second Quarter 2017 Financial Results   [Jul-27-17 07:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Top Ranked Momentum Stocks to Buy for July 3rd   [Jul-03-17 11:30AM  Zacks]
▶ Top 3 Healthcare Penny Stocks for 2017   [Jun-20-17 11:38AM  Investopedia]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Repligen Corp. : June 19, 2017   [Jun-19-17 04:03PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Repligen tops Street 1Q forecasts   [May-04-17 07:53AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Repligen Corp. : May 1, 2017   [May-01-17 04:21PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Repligen Corp. : April 21, 2017   [Apr-21-17 03:04PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Repligen Corp. : April 7, 2017   [Apr-07-17 05:23PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Stocks Flat But Alphabet, Lockheed Martin Hit New Highs   [Mar-17-17 03:06PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Top 3 Healthcare Penny Stocks for 2017   [08:00AM  at Investopedia]
▶ Repligen beats 4Q profit forecasts   [07:55AM  Associated Press]
▶ Is Repligen Corporation (RGEN) a Good Stock to Buy?   [Dec-10-16 06:46PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ 3 Top Stocks for Risk-Averse Investors   [Nov-01-16 10:26AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Repligen to Report Third Quarter 2016 Financial Results   [Oct-20-16 07:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ These 3 Stocks Are Up Over 700% in the Last 5 Years   [Aug-23-16 05:07PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Repligen to Report Second Quarter 2016 Financial Results   [Jul-27-16 07:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Repligen to Present at Jefferies 2016 Healthcare Conference   [Jun-02-16 07:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ How to Invest in the Life Cycle of a Drug   [May-31-16 08:32AM  at Motley Fool]
Financial statements of RGEN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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