Intrinsic value of Repligen - RGEN

Previous Close

$35.78

  Intrinsic Value

$91.37

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+155%

Previous close

$35.78

 
Intrinsic value

$91.37

 
Up/down potential

+155%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of RGEN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  25.00
  48.00
  43.70
  39.83
  36.35
  33.21
  30.39
  27.85
  25.57
  23.51
  21.66
  19.99
  18.49
  17.14
  15.93
  14.84
  13.85
  12.97
  12.17
  11.45
  10.81
  10.23
  9.71
  9.23
  8.81
  8.43
  8.09
  7.78
  7.50
  7.25
  7.03
Revenue, $m
  105
  155
  223
  312
  426
  567
  740
  945
  1,187
  1,466
  1,784
  2,141
  2,536
  2,971
  3,445
  3,956
  4,504
  5,088
  5,707
  6,361
  7,048
  7,769
  8,523
  9,310
  10,130
  10,984
  11,873
  12,796
  13,756
  14,753
  15,790
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  127
  180
  250
  338
  449
  583
  744
  933
  1,151
  1,399
  1,671
  1,981
  2,320
  2,690
  3,089
  3,517
  3,973
  4,456
  4,967
  5,504
  6,067
  6,655
  7,270
  7,910
  8,577
  9,271
  9,992
  10,742
  11,520
  12,330
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  89
  127
  180
  250
  338
  449
  583
  744
  933
  1,151
  1,399
  1,671
  1,981
  2,320
  2,690
  3,089
  3,517
  3,973
  4,456
  4,967
  5,504
  6,067
  6,655
  7,270
  7,910
  8,577
  9,271
  9,992
  10,742
  11,520
  12,330
Operating income, $m
  16
  28
  43
  62
  87
  118
  156
  201
  254
  315
  385
  469
  556
  651
  755
  867
  987
  1,115
  1,251
  1,394
  1,545
  1,703
  1,868
  2,040
  2,220
  2,407
  2,602
  2,804
  3,015
  3,233
  3,460
EBITDA, $m
  21
  38
  54
  76
  103
  138
  179
  229
  288
  356
  433
  519
  615
  720
  835
  959
  1,092
  1,234
  1,384
  1,542
  1,709
  1,884
  2,066
  2,257
  2,456
  2,663
  2,879
  3,102
  3,335
  3,577
  3,828
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  3
  5
  8
  12
  16
  22
  29
  37
  47
  58
  70
  85
  101
  118
  137
  157
  179
  203
  227
  254
  281
  310
  340
  372
  404
  439
  474
  511
  549
  589
Earnings before tax, $m
  12
  25
  38
  54
  76
  102
  134
  172
  217
  269
  327
  399
  471
  551
  637
  730
  830
  936
  1,048
  1,166
  1,291
  1,421
  1,558
  1,700
  1,848
  2,003
  2,163
  2,330
  2,504
  2,684
  2,871
Tax expense, $m
  0
  7
  10
  15
  20
  28
  36
  47
  59
  73
  88
  108
  127
  149
  172
  197
  224
  253
  283
  315
  349
  384
  421
  459
  499
  541
  584
  629
  676
  725
  775
Net income, $m
  12
  18
  27
  40
  55
  75
  98
  126
  159
  196
  239
  291
  344
  402
  465
  533
  606
  683
  765
  852
  942
  1,038
  1,137
  1,241
  1,349
  1,462
  1,579
  1,701
  1,828
  1,959
  2,096

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  142
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  289
  218
  313
  437
  596
  794
  1,036
  1,324
  1,663
  2,054
  2,498
  2,998
  3,552
  4,162
  4,824
  5,540
  6,308
  7,126
  7,993
  8,909
  9,871
  10,881
  11,937
  13,039
  14,188
  15,384
  16,629
  17,922
  19,266
  20,663
  22,115
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  147
  218
  313
  437
  596
  794
  1,036
  1,324
  1,663
  2,054
  2,498
  2,998
  3,552
  4,162
  4,824
  5,540
  6,308
  7,126
  7,993
  8,909
  9,871
  10,881
  11,937
  13,039
  14,188
  15,384
  16,629
  17,922
  19,266
  20,663
  22,115
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.714
  0.711
  0.712
  0.714
  0.715
  0.714
  0.714
  0.714
  0.714
  0.714
  0.714
  0.714
  0.714
  0.714
  0.714
  0.714
  0.714
  0.714
  0.714
  0.714
  0.714
  0.714
  0.714
  0.714
  0.714
  0.714
  0.714
  0.714
  0.714
  0.714
  0.714
Average production assets, $m
  36
  53
  75
  106
  144
  192
  250
  320
  401
  496
  603
  724
  857
  1,004
  1,164
  1,337
  1,522
  1,720
  1,929
  2,150
  2,382
  2,626
  2,881
  3,147
  3,424
  3,713
  4,013
  4,325
  4,650
  4,987
  5,337
Working capital, $m
  163
  31
  45
  62
  85
  113
  148
  189
  237
  293
  357
  428
  507
  594
  689
  791
  901
  1,018
  1,141
  1,272
  1,410
  1,554
  1,705
  1,862
  2,026
  2,197
  2,375
  2,559
  2,751
  2,951
  3,158
Total debt, $m
  95
  153
  230
  332
  462
  623
  820
  1,056
  1,332
  1,651
  2,014
  2,421
  2,874
  3,371
  3,912
  4,496
  5,122
  5,790
  6,497
  7,244
  8,030
  8,854
  9,716
  10,615
  11,553
  12,529
  13,544
  14,599
  15,696
  16,836
  18,021
Total liabilities, $m
  120
  178
  255
  357
  487
  648
  845
  1,081
  1,357
  1,676
  2,039
  2,446
  2,899
  3,396
  3,937
  4,521
  5,147
  5,815
  6,522
  7,269
  8,055
  8,879
  9,741
  10,640
  11,578
  12,554
  13,569
  14,624
  15,721
  16,861
  18,046
Total equity, $m
  169
  40
  58
  80
  110
  146
  191
  244
  306
  378
  460
  552
  654
  766
  888
  1,019
  1,161
  1,311
  1,471
  1,639
  1,816
  2,002
  2,196
  2,399
  2,611
  2,831
  3,060
  3,298
  3,545
  3,802
  4,069
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  289
  218
  313
  437
  597
  794
  1,036
  1,325
  1,663
  2,054
  2,499
  2,998
  3,553
  4,162
  4,825
  5,540
  6,308
  7,126
  7,993
  8,908
  9,871
  10,881
  11,937
  13,039
  14,189
  15,385
  16,629
  17,922
  19,266
  20,663
  22,115
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.562
  3.810
  4.000
  4.120
  4.210
  4.260
  4.300
  4.330
  4.350
  4.370
  4.380
  4.390
  4.400
  4.400
  4.410
  4.410
  4.410
  4.420
  4.420
  4.420
  4.420
  4.420
  4.420
  4.420
  4.430
  4.430
  4.430
  4.430
  4.430
  4.430
  4.430
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  12
  18
  27
  40
  55
  75
  98
  126
  159
  196
  239
  291
  344
  402
  465
  533
  606
  683
  765
  852
  942
  1,038
  1,137
  1,241
  1,349
  1,462
  1,579
  1,701
  1,828
  1,959
  2,096
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  5
  10
  11
  13
  16
  19
  23
  28
  34
  40
  48
  50
  59
  69
  80
  92
  105
  119
  133
  148
  164
  181
  199
  217
  236
  256
  277
  298
  321
  344
  368
Funds from operations, $m
  -8
  28
  39
  53
  71
  94
  121
  154
  192
  236
  286
  341
  403
  471
  545
  625
  711
  802
  898
  1,000
  1,107
  1,219
  1,336
  1,458
  1,586
  1,718
  1,856
  1,999
  2,148
  2,303
  2,464
Change in working capital, $m
  -16
  10
  14
  18
  23
  28
  34
  41
  48
  56
  64
  71
  79
  87
  95
  102
  110
  117
  124
  131
  138
  144
  151
  157
  164
  171
  178
  185
  192
  199
  207
Cash from operations, $m
  8
  18
  25
  35
  48
  65
  87
  113
  144
  181
  223
  270
  324
  384
  451
  523
  601
  685
  774
  869
  969
  1,075
  1,185
  1,301
  1,421
  1,547
  1,678
  1,815
  1,956
  2,104
  2,257
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -2
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -10
  -13
  -17
  -22
  -28
  -34
  -42
  -50
  -59
  -69
  -80
  -92
  -105
  -119
  -133
  -148
  -164
  -181
  -199
  -217
  -236
  -256
  -277
  -298
  -321
  -344
New CAPEX, $m
  -4
  -17
  -23
  -30
  -38
  -48
  -58
  -70
  -82
  -94
  -107
  -121
  -134
  -147
  -160
  -173
  -185
  -197
  -209
  -221
  -232
  -244
  -255
  -266
  -277
  -289
  -300
  -312
  -324
  -337
  -350
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -49
  -19
  -27
  -35
  -45
  -58
  -71
  -87
  -104
  -122
  -141
  -163
  -184
  -206
  -229
  -253
  -277
  -302
  -328
  -354
  -380
  -408
  -436
  -465
  -494
  -525
  -556
  -589
  -622
  -658
  -694
Free cash flow, $m
  -41
  -2
  -2
  0
  3
  8
  15
  26
  40
  59
  81
  107
  140
  178
  221
  270
  324
  382
  446
  515
  589
  667
  749
  836
  927
  1,023
  1,122
  1,226
  1,334
  1,446
  1,562
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  111
  58
  78
  102
  130
  162
  197
  235
  276
  319
  363
  408
  452
  497
  541
  584
  626
  667
  708
  747
  786
  824
  862
  900
  938
  976
  1,015
  1,055
  1,097
  1,140
  1,185
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  112
  58
  78
  102
  130
  162
  197
  235
  276
  319
  363
  408
  452
  497
  541
  584
  626
  667
  708
  747
  786
  824
  862
  900
  938
  976
  1,015
  1,055
  1,097
  1,140
  1,185
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  68
  56
  76
  102
  133
  169
  212
  261
  316
  377
  444
  515
  593
  675
  762
  854
  950
  1,050
  1,154
  1,262
  1,374
  1,491
  1,611
  1,736
  1,865
  1,999
  2,137
  2,281
  2,431
  2,586
  2,747
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -46
  -13
  -18
  -23
  -29
  -36
  -44
  -53
  -62
  -72
  -82
  -92
  -102
  -112
  -122
  -132
  -141
  -151
  -160
  -168
  -177
  -186
  -194
  -203
  -211
  -220
  -229
  -238
  -247
  -257
  -267
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  142
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  185
  59
  79
  103
  133
  168
  208
  254
  306
  362
  423
  491
  563
  640
  722
  809
  899
  994
  1,094
  1,197
  1,305
  1,417
  1,533
  1,653
  1,778
  1,908
  2,043
  2,183
  2,329
  2,480
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  177
  54
  68
  85
  103
  122
  141
  159
  176
  190
  201
  209
  214
  215
  212
  205
  196
  183
  168
  152
  135
  118
  100
  84
  69
  56
  44
  34
  25
  19
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Repligen Corporation is a bioprocessing company. The Company is focused on the development, manufacture and commercialization of products used to improve the interconnected phases of the biological drug manufacturing process. The Company's portfolio includes protein products, chromatography products, and filtration products. It provides Protein A ligands, a component of Protein A chromatography resins (media) used in the purification of virtually all monoclonal antibody (mAb)-based drugs on the market or in development. Its chromatography portfolio includes various products used in the downstream purification and quality control of biological drugs. Its OPUS pre-packed chromatography columns (PPCs) are used in the purification of clinical-stage biologics. Its filtration products include XCell Alternating Tangential Flow (ATF) Systems and Sius tangential flow filtration (TFF) cassettes. Sius TFF cassettes are used to concentrate clinical and commercial-stage biologic drugs.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Repligen (RGEN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 100.9
Price to Sales 11.5
Price to Book 7.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 151.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 302.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 25%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 33.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -4.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 56.2%
Total Debt to Equity 56.2%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.2%
Return On Total Capital 6.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Return On Equity 8.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 54.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 55.9%
EBITDA Margin 16.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.4%
Operating Margin 15.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 11.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.7%
Net Profit Margin 11.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.5%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

RGEN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the RGEN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $105 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Repligen. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Repligen. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our RGEN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 48% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for RGEN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Repligen, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Repligen.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of RGEN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 83.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for RGEN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Repligen.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Repligen. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the RGEN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for RGEN are equal to 33.8%.

Life of production assets of 14.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Repligen operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for RGEN is equal to 20%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $169 million for Repligen - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 43.275 million for Repligen is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Repligen at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ Repligen tops Street 3Q forecasts   [07:43AM  Associated Press]
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▶ ETFs with exposure to Repligen Corp. : November 1, 2017   [Nov-01-17 12:36PM  Capital Cube]
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▶ ETFs with exposure to Repligen Corp. : September 28, 2017   [Sep-28-17 10:19AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Repligen Announces Analyst Day and Webcast   [Sep-15-17 07:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Repligen beats Street 2Q forecasts   [Aug-03-17 06:26PM  Associated Press]
▶ Repligen beats Street 2Q forecasts   [10:43AM  Associated Press]
▶ Repligen to Report Second Quarter 2017 Financial Results   [Jul-27-17 07:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Top Ranked Momentum Stocks to Buy for July 3rd   [Jul-03-17 11:30AM  Zacks]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Repligen Corp. : June 19, 2017   [Jun-19-17 04:03PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Repligen tops Street 1Q forecasts   [May-04-17 07:53AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Repligen Corp. : May 1, 2017   [May-01-17 04:21PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Repligen Corp. : April 21, 2017   [Apr-21-17 03:04PM  Capital Cube]
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▶ Top 3 Healthcare Penny Stocks for 2017   [08:00AM  at Investopedia]
▶ Repligen beats 4Q profit forecasts   [07:55AM  Associated Press]
▶ Is Repligen Corporation (RGEN) a Good Stock to Buy?   [Dec-10-16 06:46PM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of RGEN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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