Intrinsic value of Royal Gold - RGLD

Previous Close

$83.97

  Intrinsic Value

$8.55

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-90%

  Value-price divergence*

-99%

Previous close

$83.97

 
Intrinsic value

$8.55

 
Up/down potential

-90%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-99%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of RGLD stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 5.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  29.50
  15.10
  14.09
  13.18
  12.36
  11.63
  10.96
  10.37
  9.83
  9.35
  8.91
  8.52
  8.17
  7.85
  7.57
  7.31
  7.08
  6.87
  6.68
  6.52
  6.36
  6.23
  6.11
  5.99
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.65
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
Revenue, $m
  360
  414
  473
  535
  601
  671
  745
  822
  903
  987
  1,075
  1,167
  1,262
  1,361
  1,464
  1,571
  1,682
  1,798
  1,918
  2,043
  2,173
  2,308
  2,449
  2,596
  2,749
  2,909
  3,075
  3,249
  3,431
  3,620
  3,819
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  284
  324
  367
  412
  460
  511
  564
  619
  677
  737
  800
  866
  934
  1,004
  1,078
  1,154
  1,233
  1,316
  1,402
  1,491
  1,584
  1,680
  1,781
  1,886
  1,995
  2,110
  2,229
  2,354
  2,484
  2,620
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  355
  284
  324
  367
  412
  460
  511
  564
  619
  677
  737
  800
  866
  934
  1,004
  1,078
  1,154
  1,233
  1,316
  1,402
  1,491
  1,584
  1,680
  1,781
  1,886
  1,995
  2,110
  2,229
  2,354
  2,484
  2,620
Operating income, $m
  5
  130
  148
  168
  189
  211
  234
  258
  283
  310
  338
  366
  396
  427
  460
  493
  528
  565
  602
  642
  682
  725
  769
  815
  863
  913
  966
  1,020
  1,077
  1,137
  1,199
EBITDA, $m
  146
  292
  334
  377
  424
  473
  525
  580
  637
  696
  758
  823
  890
  960
  1,033
  1,108
  1,187
  1,268
  1,353
  1,441
  1,533
  1,629
  1,728
  1,832
  1,940
  2,052
  2,170
  2,292
  2,420
  2,554
  2,694
Interest expense (income), $m
  18
  23
  28
  34
  39
  45
  52
  58
  65
  73
  80
  88
  97
  105
  114
  124
  133
  143
  154
  165
  176
  188
  200
  213
  226
  240
  255
  270
  286
  302
  319
Earnings before tax, $m
  -22
  107
  120
  134
  149
  165
  182
  200
  218
  237
  257
  278
  300
  322
  345
  370
  395
  421
  448
  477
  506
  537
  569
  602
  637
  673
  711
  750
  792
  835
  880
Tax expense, $m
  60
  29
  32
  36
  40
  45
  49
  54
  59
  64
  69
  75
  81
  87
  93
  100
  107
  114
  121
  129
  137
  145
  154
  163
  172
  182
  192
  203
  214
  225
  237
Net income, $m
  -77
  78
  88
  98
  109
  121
  133
  146
  159
  173
  188
  203
  219
  235
  252
  270
  288
  307
  327
  348
  369
  392
  415
  440
  465
  491
  519
  548
  578
  609
  642

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  117
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,067
  3,396
  3,875
  4,386
  4,928
  5,501
  6,104
  6,737
  7,399
  8,091
  8,812
  9,563
  10,344
  11,156
  12,000
  12,878
  13,789
  14,737
  15,722
  16,747
  17,812
  18,922
  20,077
  21,280
  22,535
  23,843
  25,208
  26,633
  28,121
  29,676
  31,301
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,950
  3,396
  3,875
  4,386
  4,928
  5,501
  6,104
  6,737
  7,399
  8,091
  8,812
  9,563
  10,344
  11,156
  12,000
  12,878
  13,789
  14,737
  15,722
  16,747
  17,812
  18,922
  20,077
  21,280
  22,535
  23,843
  25,208
  26,633
  28,121
  29,676
  31,301
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
Average production assets, $m
  2,467
  2,839
  3,239
  3,666
  4,119
  4,598
  5,102
  5,631
  6,184
  6,762
  7,365
  7,993
  8,646
  9,325
  10,030
  10,764
  11,526
  12,318
  13,141
  13,997
  14,888
  15,815
  16,781
  17,787
  18,835
  19,929
  21,070
  22,261
  23,504
  24,804
  26,162
Working capital, $m
  142
  29
  33
  37
  41
  46
  51
  57
  62
  68
  74
  80
  87
  94
  101
  108
  116
  124
  132
  141
  150
  159
  169
  179
  190
  201
  212
  224
  237
  250
  263
Total debt, $m
  601
  728
  863
  1,009
  1,163
  1,325
  1,497
  1,676
  1,864
  2,061
  2,266
  2,479
  2,701
  2,931
  3,171
  3,420
  3,679
  3,948
  4,228
  4,519
  4,822
  5,137
  5,465
  5,807
  6,163
  6,534
  6,922
  7,327
  7,749
  8,191
  8,652
Total liabilities, $m
  838
  965
  1,100
  1,246
  1,400
  1,562
  1,734
  1,913
  2,101
  2,298
  2,503
  2,716
  2,938
  3,168
  3,408
  3,657
  3,916
  4,185
  4,465
  4,756
  5,059
  5,374
  5,702
  6,044
  6,400
  6,771
  7,159
  7,564
  7,986
  8,428
  8,889
Total equity, $m
  2,229
  2,432
  2,774
  3,140
  3,528
  3,939
  4,370
  4,824
  5,298
  5,793
  6,309
  6,847
  7,406
  7,988
  8,592
  9,220
  9,873
  10,552
  11,257
  11,991
  12,754
  13,548
  14,375
  15,237
  16,135
  17,072
  18,049
  19,069
  20,135
  21,248
  22,411
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,067
  3,397
  3,874
  4,386
  4,928
  5,501
  6,104
  6,737
  7,399
  8,091
  8,812
  9,563
  10,344
  11,156
  12,000
  12,877
  13,789
  14,737
  15,722
  16,747
  17,813
  18,922
  20,077
  21,281
  22,535
  23,843
  25,208
  26,633
  28,121
  29,676
  31,300
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.270
  0.300
  0.310
  0.320
  0.330
  0.340
  0.340
  0.350
  0.350
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.360
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.370
  0.380
  0.380
  0.380
  0.380
  0.380
  0.380
  0.380
  0.380
  0.380
  0.380
  0.380
  0.390
  0.390
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.716
  0.716
  0.716
  0.716
  0.716
  0.716
  0.716
  0.716
  0.716
  0.716
  0.716
  0.716
  0.716
  0.716
  0.716
  0.716
  0.716
  0.716
  0.716
  0.716
  0.716
  0.716
  0.716
  0.716
  0.716
  0.716
  0.716
  0.716
  0.716
  0.716
  0.716

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -77
  78
  88
  98
  109
  121
  133
  146
  159
  173
  188
  203
  219
  235
  252
  270
  288
  307
  327
  348
  369
  392
  415
  440
  465
  491
  519
  548
  578
  609
  642
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  141
  162
  185
  209
  235
  263
  292
  322
  353
  386
  421
  457
  494
  533
  573
  615
  659
  704
  751
  800
  851
  904
  959
  1,016
  1,076
  1,139
  1,204
  1,272
  1,343
  1,417
  1,495
Funds from operations, $m
  167
  240
  273
  308
  344
  383
  424
  468
  513
  560
  609
  660
  713
  768
  825
  885
  947
  1,011
  1,078
  1,148
  1,220
  1,296
  1,374
  1,456
  1,541
  1,630
  1,723
  1,820
  1,921
  2,027
  2,137
Change in working capital, $m
  -3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
Cash from operations, $m
  170
  236
  269
  303
  340
  379
  419
  462
  507
  554
  603
  653
  706
  761
  818
  878
  939
  1,003
  1,070
  1,139
  1,211
  1,286
  1,364
  1,446
  1,531
  1,619
  1,711
  1,808
  1,908
  2,014
  2,123
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -141
  -162
  -185
  -209
  -235
  -263
  -292
  -322
  -353
  -386
  -421
  -457
  -494
  -533
  -573
  -615
  -659
  -704
  -751
  -800
  -851
  -904
  -959
  -1,016
  -1,076
  -1,139
  -1,204
  -1,272
  -1,343
  -1,417
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  -372
  -400
  -427
  -453
  -479
  -504
  -529
  -554
  -578
  -603
  -628
  -653
  -679
  -706
  -733
  -762
  -792
  -823
  -856
  -891
  -927
  -966
  -1,006
  -1,049
  -1,094
  -1,141
  -1,191
  -1,244
  -1,299
  -1,358
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1,010
  -513
  -562
  -612
  -662
  -714
  -767
  -821
  -876
  -931
  -989
  -1,049
  -1,110
  -1,173
  -1,239
  -1,306
  -1,377
  -1,451
  -1,527
  -1,607
  -1,691
  -1,778
  -1,870
  -1,965
  -2,065
  -2,170
  -2,280
  -2,395
  -2,516
  -2,642
  -2,775
Free cash flow, $m
  -840
  -277
  -294
  -309
  -323
  -336
  -347
  -358
  -368
  -378
  -387
  -395
  -404
  -412
  -420
  -429
  -438
  -447
  -457
  -468
  -479
  -492
  -505
  -519
  -534
  -551
  -568
  -587
  -607
  -629
  -652
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  275
  127
  136
  145
  154
  163
  171
  180
  188
  196
  205
  213
  222
  231
  240
  249
  259
  269
  280
  291
  303
  315
  328
  342
  356
  372
  388
  405
  423
  442
  461
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  242
  255
  268
  279
  289
  299
  307
  315
  322
  329
  335
  341
  346
  352
  358
  365
  371
  378
  386
  394
  402
  412
  422
  433
  445
  458
  473
  488
  504
  521
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  272
  369
  391
  413
  433
  452
  470
  487
  503
  518
  534
  548
  563
  577
  592
  607
  624
  640
  658
  677
  697
  717
  740
  764
  789
  817
  846
  878
  911
  946
  982
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -567
  92
  97
  104
  110
  117
  123
  129
  135
  141
  147
  153
  159
  165
  172
  179
  186
  193
  200
  208
  217
  226
  235
  245
  255
  266
  278
  290
  303
  316
  331
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  124
  -320
  -343
  -366
  -388
  -410
  -432
  -453
  -474
  -495
  -516
  -538
  -559
  -582
  -604
  -628
  -653
  -678
  -705
  -734
  -763
  -794
  -827
  -862
  -898
  -937
  -977
  -1,020
  -1,065
  -1,113
  -1,163
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  117
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -111
  -245
  -262
  -278
  -294
  -309
  -324
  -339
  -354
  -370
  -385
  -400
  -416
  -433
  -450
  -467
  -486
  -505
  -525
  -546
  -569
  -592
  -617
  -643
  -670
  -700
  -730
  -763
  -797
  -833
Discount rate, %
 
  5.00
  5.25
  5.51
  5.79
  6.08
  6.38
  6.70
  7.04
  7.39
  7.76
  8.14
  8.55
  8.98
  9.43
  9.90
  10.39
  10.91
  11.46
  12.03
  12.63
  13.27
  13.93
  14.63
  15.36
  16.13
  16.93
  17.78
  18.67
  19.60
  20.58
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -106
  -221
  -223
  -222
  -219
  -213
  -206
  -197
  -187
  -175
  -163
  -150
  -136
  -123
  -109
  -96
  -83
  -72
  -61
  -51
  -42
  -34
  -27
  -21
  -16
  -12
  -9
  -6
  -4
  -3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  95.5
  91.6
  88.2
  85.1
  82.3
  79.9
  77.6
  75.6
  73.8
  72.1
  70.6
  69.2
  67.9
  66.7
  65.6
  64.6
  63.6
  62.7
  61.8
  61.0
  60.2
  59.5
  58.8
  58.1
  57.5
  56.8
  56.2
  55.7
  55.1
  54.6

Royal Gold, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, acquires and manages precious metals royalties, metal streams, and similar interests. It focuses on acquiring stream and royalty interests or to finance projects that are in production or in development stage in exchange for stream or royalty interests. As of June 30, 2016, the company owned stream interests in 4 producing property and 3 development stage properties; and owned royalty interests in 34 producing properties, 21 development stage properties, and 131 exploration stage properties. Its principal producing stream and royalty interests on properties are located in the United States, Canada, Chile, Mexico, the Dominican Republic, and Ghana. The company also holds stream and royalty interests in mines and projects in other countries, including Argentina, Australia, Bolivia, Brazil, Burkina Faso, Finland, Guatemala, Honduras, Macedonia, Nicaragua, Peru, Russia, Spain, and Tunisia. Royal Gold, Inc. was founded in 1981 and is based in Denver, Colorado.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Royal Gold (RGLD)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -71
Price to Sales 15.2
Price to Book 2.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 32.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 32.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 29.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 27%
Total Debt to Equity 27%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -0.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.4%
Return On Total Capital -2.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Return On Equity -3.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 79.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 86.1%
EBITDA Margin 38.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 58.6%
Operating Margin 1.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.2%
Pre-Tax Margin -6.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.1%
Net Profit Margin -21.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Effective Tax Rate -272.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -78%
Payout Ratio -76.6%

RGLD stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the RGLD stock intrinsic value calculation we used $360 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Royal Gold. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Royal Gold. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our RGLD stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 15.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5%, whose default value for RGLD is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Royal Gold, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Royal Gold.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of RGLD stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 68.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for RGLD stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.9% for Royal Gold.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Royal Gold. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the RGLD stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for RGLD are equal to 685.1%.

Life of production assets of 17.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Royal Gold operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for RGLD is equal to 6.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2229 million for Royal Gold - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 65.182 million for Royal Gold is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Royal Gold at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.5 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
ABX Barrick Gold 16.19 1.45  str.sell
HL Hecla Mining 5.38 4.75  hold
NGD New Gold 3.09 1.02  str.sell
IAG IAMGOLD 5.18 1.22  str.sell

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Stock chart of RGLD Financial statements of RGLD Annual reports of RGLD
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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