Intrinsic value of Sturm Ruger - RGR

Previous Close

$49.25

  Intrinsic Value

$77.71

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+58%

  Value-price divergence*

-76%

Previous close

$49.25

 
Intrinsic value

$77.71

 
Up/down potential

+58%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

-76%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of RGR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  20.51
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  664
  677
  693
  711
  731
  753
  777
  804
  832
  863
  896
  932
  969
  1,010
  1,053
  1,098
  1,146
  1,197
  1,251
  1,308
  1,368
  1,431
  1,498
  1,569
  1,643
  1,721
  1,803
  1,890
  1,981
  2,077
  2,178
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  438
  448
  459
  472
  486
  502
  519
  538
  558
  579
  602
  626
  652
  680
  709
  740
  773
  808
  845
  884
  925
  968
  1,013
  1,061
  1,112
  1,165
  1,221
  1,280
  1,342
  1,407
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  107
  109
  112
  115
  118
  121
  124
  127
  130
  133
  136
  140
  143
  147
  151
  154
  158
  162
  166
  170
  175
  179
  184
  188
  193
  198
  203
  208
  213
  218
Total operating expenses, $m
  530
  545
  557
  571
  587
  604
  623
  643
  665
  688
  712
  738
  766
  795
  827
  860
  894
  931
  970
  1,011
  1,054
  1,100
  1,147
  1,197
  1,249
  1,305
  1,363
  1,424
  1,488
  1,555
  1,625
Operating income, $m
  134
  133
  136
  140
  144
  149
  154
  161
  168
  176
  184
  193
  203
  214
  226
  238
  251
  265
  281
  297
  314
  332
  351
  372
  393
  416
  441
  466
  494
  522
  553
EBITDA, $m
  169
  144
  147
  151
  156
  161
  167
  174
  181
  189
  198
  208
  219
  230
  242
  256
  270
  285
  301
  318
  336
  355
  375
  397
  420
  444
  470
  497
  525
  556
  588
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
Earnings before tax, $m
  136
  133
  136
  139
  144
  149
  154
  160
  167
  175
  183
  192
  202
  213
  224
  236
  249
  263
  278
  294
  311
  329
  348
  368
  390
  412
  436
  462
  488
  517
  547
Tax expense, $m
  49
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  55
  57
  61
  64
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
  89
  94
  99
  105
  111
  118
  125
  132
  140
  148
Net income, $m
  87
  97
  99
  102
  105
  108
  112
  117
  122
  128
  134
  140
  148
  155
  164
  173
  182
  192
  203
  215
  227
  240
  254
  269
  284
  301
  318
  337
  357
  377
  399

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  87
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  347
  265
  271
  278
  286
  295
  304
  315
  326
  338
  351
  365
  380
  395
  412
  430
  449
  469
  490
  512
  536
  560
  587
  614
  643
  674
  706
  740
  776
  813
  853
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  260
  265
  271
  278
  286
  295
  304
  315
  326
  338
  351
  365
  380
  395
  412
  430
  449
  469
  490
  512
  536
  560
  587
  614
  643
  674
  706
  740
  776
  813
  853
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.554
  2.555
  2.557
  2.558
  2.556
  2.553
  2.556
  2.552
  2.552
  2.553
  2.553
  2.553
  2.550
  2.557
  2.556
  2.553
  2.552
  2.552
  2.553
  2.555
  2.552
  2.555
  2.552
  2.555
  2.555
  2.553
  2.554
  2.554
  2.553
  2.555
  2.553
Average production assets, $m
  106
  108
  111
  114
  117
  120
  124
  129
  133
  138
  143
  149
  155
  162
  168
  176
  183
  192
  200
  209
  219
  229
  240
  251
  263
  275
  289
  302
  317
  332
  348
Working capital, $m
  134
  48
  49
  50
  52
  53
  55
  57
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
  102
  106
  111
  117
  122
  128
  134
  141
  147
  155
Total debt, $m
  0
  2
  4
  6
  8
  11
  14
  17
  21
  24
  28
  33
  37
  42
  48
  53
  59
  65
  72
  79
  86
  94
  102
  111
  120
  129
  139
  150
  161
  173
  185
Total liabilities, $m
  81
  83
  85
  87
  89
  92
  95
  98
  102
  105
  109
  114
  118
  123
  129
  134
  140
  146
  153
  160
  167
  175
  183
  192
  201
  210
  220
  231
  242
  254
  266
Total equity, $m
  266
  182
  187
  191
  197
  203
  209
  216
  224
  233
  241
  251
  261
  272
  284
  296
  309
  322
  337
  352
  368
  386
  404
  423
  443
  464
  486
  509
  534
  560
  587
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  347
  265
  272
  278
  286
  295
  304
  314
  326
  338
  350
  365
  379
  395
  413
  430
  449
  468
  490
  512
  535
  561
  587
  615
  644
  674
  706
  740
  776
  814
  853
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.010
  0.020
  0.030
  0.040
  0.050
  0.070
  0.080
  0.090
  0.110
  0.120
  0.130
  0.140
  0.160
  0.170
  0.180
  0.190
  0.200
  0.210
  0.220
  0.230
  0.240
  0.250
  0.260
  0.270
  0.280
  0.290
  0.290
  0.300
  0.310
  0.320
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.688
  0.688
  0.688
  0.688
  0.688
  0.688
  0.688
  0.688
  0.688
  0.688
  0.688
  0.688
  0.688
  0.688
  0.688
  0.688
  0.688
  0.688
  0.688
  0.688
  0.688
  0.688
  0.688
  0.688
  0.688
  0.688
  0.688
  0.688
  0.688
  0.688
  0.688

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  87
  97
  99
  102
  105
  108
  112
  117
  122
  128
  134
  140
  148
  155
  164
  173
  182
  192
  203
  215
  227
  240
  254
  269
  284
  301
  318
  337
  357
  377
  399
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  35
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
Funds from operations, $m
  81
  108
  110
  113
  117
  120
  125
  130
  135
  142
  148
  155
  163
  171
  180
  190
  200
  211
  223
  236
  249
  263
  278
  294
  311
  328
  347
  367
  388
  411
  434
Change in working capital, $m
  -24
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
Cash from operations, $m
  105
  107
  109
  112
  115
  119
  123
  128
  133
  139
  146
  153
  160
  169
  177
  187
  197
  208
  219
  232
  245
  259
  273
  289
  305
  323
  341
  361
  382
  404
  427
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
New CAPEX, $m
  -35
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -35
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -16
  -16
  -16
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
Free cash flow, $m
  70
  94
  96
  98
  101
  104
  107
  111
  116
  121
  127
  133
  139
  147
  154
  163
  172
  181
  192
  203
  214
  227
  240
  254
  268
  284
  301
  318
  337
  357
  378
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -14
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -19
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  51
  96
  98
  100
  103
  106
  110
  115
  119
  125
  131
  137
  144
  152
  160
  168
  178
  188
  198
  209
  221
  234
  248
  262
  277
  294
  311
  329
  348
  368
  390
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -38
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  87
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  179
  94
  95
  98
  100
  104
  107
  112
  117
  122
  128
  134
  141
  148
  156
  165
  174
  184
  194
  205
  217
  230
  243
  257
  273
  289
  306
  324
  343
  363
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  172
  86
  83
  80
  78
  75
  73
  70
  67
  64
  61
  57
  54
  50
  46
  42
  38
  34
  30
  26
  22
  19
  16
  13
  11
  8
  7
  5
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells firearms under the Ruger trademark in the United States. It operates in two segments, Firearms and Castings. The company offers single-shot, autoloading, bolt-action, and sporting rifles; rimfire and centerfire autoloading pistols; single-action and double-action revolvers; and firearms accessories and replacement parts, as well as manufactures and sells steel investment castings and metal injection molding (MIM) parts. It sells its firearm products through independent wholesale distributors to commercial sporting market; and castings and MIM parts directly or through manufacturers’ representatives. The company also exports its firearm products through a network of commercial distributors and directly to foreign customers comprising primarily of law enforcement agencies and foreign governments. Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc. was founded in 1949 and is headquartered in Southport, Connecticut.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Sturm Ruger (RGR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 10.6
Price to Sales 1.4
Price to Book 3.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 13.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 20.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 20.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -8.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 26.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.9%
Return On Total Capital 35.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.9%
Return On Equity 35.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.9%
Asset Turnover 2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 33.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.8%
EBITDA Margin 25.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.3%
Operating Margin 20.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 20.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.1%
Net Profit Margin 13.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.5%
Effective Tax Rate 36%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.3%
Payout Ratio 37.9%

RGR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the RGR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $664 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Sturm Ruger. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Sturm Ruger. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our RGR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for RGR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Sturm Ruger, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Sturm Ruger.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of RGR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 64.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $104 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for RGR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Sturm Ruger.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Sturm Ruger. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the RGR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for RGR are equal to 16%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Sturm Ruger operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for RGR is equal to 7.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $266 million for Sturm Ruger - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 17.979 million for Sturm Ruger is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Sturm Ruger at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Sturm, Ruger Shoots Itself in the Foot   [Aug-17-17 08:18AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Better Buy: Sturm, Ruger & Company vs. Altria   [Aug-14-17 09:30PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Sturm Ruger posts 2Q profit   [Aug-03-17 06:26PM  Associated Press]
▶ Gun Companies Missing Effects of Trump Bump   [03:23PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Sturm Ruger shares fall after big earnings miss   [Aug-02-17 05:41PM  MarketWatch]
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▶ 3 Reasons American Outdoor Brands Stock Could Rise   [Jun-28-17 09:13AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Will Sturm, Ruger Miss Out on a Gun Sale Boom?   [Jun-26-17 01:03PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Argan and Sturm Ruger Show High Profit and Low Debt   [Jun-20-17 06:06PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Relax With These Leisure Stocks   [Jun-17-17 05:38AM  Zacks]
▶ Relax With These Leisure Stocks   [Jun-16-17 05:07PM  Zacks]
▶ Markets Unmoved After GOP Baseball Shooting   [09:39AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Top Ranked Income Stocks to Buy for June 13th   [Jun-13-17 10:05AM  Zacks]
▶ A Foolish Take: What's Next for America's Top Gunmakers?   [May-22-17 12:00PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why Sturm, Ruger Stock Surged 10%   [01:10PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Sturm Ruger posts 1Q profit   [May-08-17 06:32PM  Associated Press]
▶ Defense ETF outperforms S&P 500 this month   [Apr-28-17 01:26PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Growing Earnings for 7 Undervalued Stocks   [Apr-17-17 04:07PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ 3 Top Gun Companies to Buy in 2017   [Mar-27-17 02:00PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why Is Sturm, Ruger & Company Stock Surging?   [Mar-23-17 08:00PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Sturm Ruger: Strong Brand, Weak Industry   [Mar-14-17 08:41AM  Benzinga]
▶ Trump's Presidency Has Driven Gun Sales Down   [Mar-06-17 02:38PM  Investopedia]
▶ Can You Guess the Biggest Gunmaker in the U.S.?   [Mar-04-17 08:00AM  at Motley Fool]
Stock chart of RGR Financial statements of RGR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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