Intrinsic value of Sturm Ruger - RGR

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$62.95

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$62.95

 
Intrinsic value

$110.19

 
Up/down potential

+75%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of RGR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  20.51
  6.60
  6.44
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.94
  5.85
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.19
  5.18
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.08
Revenue, $m
  664
  708
  753
  801
  850
  902
  955
  1,011
  1,069
  1,130
  1,194
  1,260
  1,329
  1,402
  1,478
  1,557
  1,640
  1,727
  1,818
  1,913
  2,013
  2,117
  2,227
  2,342
  2,462
  2,589
  2,721
  2,860
  3,006
  3,158
  3,319
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  457
  487
  517
  549
  582
  617
  653
  691
  730
  771
  814
  859
  906
  955
  1,006
  1,059
  1,116
  1,174
  1,236
  1,300
  1,368
  1,439
  1,513
  1,591
  1,672
  1,758
  1,847
  1,942
  2,040
  2,144
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  107
  109
  112
  115
  118
  121
  124
  127
  130
  133
  136
  140
  143
  147
  151
  154
  158
  162
  166
  170
  175
  179
  184
  188
  193
  198
  203
  208
  213
  218
Total operating expenses, $m
  530
  564
  596
  629
  664
  700
  738
  777
  818
  860
  904
  950
  999
  1,049
  1,102
  1,157
  1,213
  1,274
  1,336
  1,402
  1,470
  1,543
  1,618
  1,697
  1,779
  1,865
  1,956
  2,050
  2,150
  2,253
  2,362
Operating income, $m
  134
  144
  157
  172
  186
  202
  218
  234
  252
  270
  289
  310
  331
  353
  376
  401
  426
  453
  481
  511
  542
  575
  609
  646
  684
  724
  766
  810
  856
  905
  957
EBITDA, $m
  169
  167
  182
  197
  214
  231
  249
  267
  287
  307
  328
  350
  374
  398
  424
  451
  479
  509
  540
  573
  607
  644
  681
  721
  763
  807
  854
  902
  954
  1,008
  1,064
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
Earnings before tax, $m
  136
  144
  157
  171
  186
  201
  216
  233
  250
  268
  287
  307
  328
  350
  373
  397
  422
  449
  476
  506
  536
  569
  603
  638
  676
  715
  757
  800
  846
  894
  945
Tax expense, $m
  49
  39
  42
  46
  50
  54
  58
  63
  68
  72
  78
  83
  89
  94
  101
  107
  114
  121
  129
  137
  145
  154
  163
  172
  182
  193
  204
  216
  228
  241
  255
Net income, $m
  87
  105
  115
  125
  135
  146
  158
  170
  183
  196
  210
  224
  239
  255
  272
  290
  308
  327
  348
  369
  392
  415
  440
  466
  493
  522
  552
  584
  618
  653
  690

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  87
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  355
  286
  304
  323
  343
  364
  385
  408
  432
  456
  482
  509
  537
  566
  596
  628
  662
  697
  734
  772
  812
  855
  899
  945
  994
  1,045
  1,098
  1,154
  1,213
  1,275
  1,339
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  268
  286
  304
  323
  343
  364
  385
  408
  432
  456
  482
  509
  537
  566
  596
  628
  662
  697
  734
  772
  812
  855
  899
  945
  994
  1,045
  1,098
  1,154
  1,213
  1,275
  1,339
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.478
  2.476
  2.477
  2.480
  2.478
  2.478
  2.481
  2.478
  2.475
  2.478
  2.477
  2.475
  2.475
  2.477
  2.480
  2.479
  2.477
  2.478
  2.477
  2.478
  2.479
  2.476
  2.477
  2.478
  2.477
  2.478
  2.478
  2.478
  2.478
  2.477
  2.479
Average production assets, $m
  108
  115
  122
  130
  138
  146
  155
  164
  173
  183
  193
  204
  215
  227
  239
  252
  266
  280
  294
  310
  326
  343
  361
  379
  399
  419
  441
  463
  487
  512
  538
Working capital, $m
  143
  59
  63
  67
  71
  76
  80
  85
  90
  95
  100
  106
  112
  118
  124
  131
  138
  145
  153
  161
  169
  178
  187
  197
  207
  217
  229
  240
  252
  265
  279
Total debt, $m
  0
  6
  12
  18
  25
  32
  39
  46
  54
  62
  71
  80
  89
  99
  109
  120
  131
  142
  155
  167
  181
  195
  209
  225
  241
  258
  276
  294
  314
  334
  356
Total liabilities, $m
  90
  95
  101
  107
  114
  121
  128
  135
  143
  151
  160
  169
  178
  188
  198
  209
  220
  231
  244
  256
  270
  284
  298
  314
  330
  347
  365
  383
  403
  423
  445
Total equity, $m
  266
  191
  203
  216
  229
  243
  258
  273
  288
  305
  322
  340
  358
  378
  398
  420
  442
  466
  490
  516
  543
  571
  600
  631
  664
  698
  734
  771
  810
  851
  895
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  356
  286
  304
  323
  343
  364
  386
  408
  431
  456
  482
  509
  536
  566
  596
  629
  662
  697
  734
  772
  813
  855
  898
  945
  994
  1,045
  1,099
  1,154
  1,213
  1,274
  1,340
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.030
  0.060
  0.080
  0.110
  0.130
  0.150
  0.170
  0.190
  0.200
  0.220
  0.240
  0.250
  0.260
  0.270
  0.280
  0.300
  0.310
  0.320
  0.320
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.360
  0.360
  0.370
  0.380
  0.380
  0.390
  0.390
  0.400
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  87
  105
  115
  125
  135
  146
  158
  170
  183
  196
  210
  224
  239
  255
  272
  290
  308
  327
  348
  369
  392
  415
  440
  466
  493
  522
  552
  584
  618
  653
  690
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  35
  23
  24
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  93
  97
  102
  108
Funds from operations, $m
  81
  128
  139
  151
  163
  176
  189
  203
  217
  233
  248
  265
  282
  301
  320
  340
  361
  383
  407
  431
  457
  484
  512
  542
  573
  606
  640
  677
  715
  755
  797
Change in working capital, $m
  -24
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
Cash from operations, $m
  105
  125
  135
  147
  159
  171
  184
  198
  212
  227
  243
  259
  277
  295
  314
  333
  354
  376
  399
  423
  448
  475
  503
  532
  563
  595
  629
  665
  703
  742
  784
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -97
  -102
New CAPEX, $m
  -35
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -35
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -61
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -117
  -122
  -128
Free cash flow, $m
  70
  96
  105
  115
  125
  135
  147
  158
  170
  183
  196
  210
  225
  240
  256
  273
  290
  309
  328
  349
  370
  393
  416
  441
  468
  495
  524
  554
  586
  620
  656
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -14
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -19
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  51
  102
  111
  121
  132
  142
  154
  166
  178
  191
  205
  219
  234
  250
  266
  283
  301
  320
  340
  361
  384
  407
  431
  457
  484
  512
  542
  573
  606
  641
  677
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -38
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  87
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  177
  99
  108
  118
  129
  139
  151
  162
  175
  188
  201
  215
  230
  246
  262
  279
  297
  316
  336
  357
  379
  402
  426
  451
  478
  506
  536
  567
  599
  634
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  170
  91
  94
  97
  100
  101
  102
  101
  100
  98
  95
  92
  87
  82
  77
  71
  65
  58
  52
  45
  39
  33
  28
  23
  19
  15
  11
  9
  7
  5
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells firearms under the Ruger trademark in the United States. It operates in two segments, Firearms and Castings. The company offers single-shot, autoloading, bolt-action, and sporting rifles; rimfire and centerfire autoloading pistols; single-action and double-action revolvers; and firearms accessories and replacement parts, as well as manufactures and sells steel investment castings and metal injection molding (MIM) parts. It sells its firearm products through independent wholesale distributors to commercial sporting market; and castings and MIM parts directly or through manufacturers’ representatives. The company also exports its firearm products through a network of commercial distributors and directly to foreign customers comprising primarily of law enforcement agencies and foreign governments. Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc. was founded in 1949 and is headquartered in Southport, Connecticut.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Sturm Ruger (RGR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 13.5
Price to Sales 1.8
Price to Book 4.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 16.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 20.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 20.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -8.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 25.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.8%
Return On Total Capital 35.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.9%
Return On Equity 35.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.9%
Asset Turnover 2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 33.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.8%
EBITDA Margin 25.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.3%
Operating Margin 20.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 20.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.1%
Net Profit Margin 13.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.5%
Effective Tax Rate 36%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.3%
Payout Ratio 37.9%

RGR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the RGR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $664 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Sturm Ruger. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Sturm Ruger. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our RGR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for RGR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Sturm Ruger, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Sturm Ruger.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of RGR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 64.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $104 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for RGR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Sturm Ruger.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Sturm Ruger. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the RGR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for RGR are equal to 16.2%.

Life of production assets of 3.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Sturm Ruger operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for RGR is equal to 8.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $266 million for Sturm Ruger - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 17.949 million for Sturm Ruger is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Sturm Ruger at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.1 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

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Stock chart of RGR Financial statements of RGR Annual reports of RGR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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