Intrinsic value of RH - RH

Previous Close

$56.65

  Intrinsic Value

$102.82

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+82%

  Value-price divergence*

-142%

Previous close

$56.65

 
Intrinsic value

$102.82

 
Up/down potential

+82%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

-142%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of RH stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  1.23
  13.00
  12.20
  11.48
  10.83
  10.25
  9.72
  9.25
  8.83
  8.44
  8.10
  7.79
  7.51
  7.26
  7.03
  6.83
  6.65
  6.48
  6.33
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.88
  5.79
  5.71
  5.64
  5.57
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
Revenue, $m
  2,135
  2,383
  2,674
  2,981
  3,304
  3,642
  3,997
  4,366
  4,752
  5,153
  5,570
  6,004
  6,455
  6,924
  7,411
  7,917
  8,443
  8,990
  9,560
  10,153
  10,770
  11,413
  12,084
  12,783
  13,513
  14,275
  15,071
  15,902
  16,771
  17,680
  18,630
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,172
  2,435
  2,713
  3,006
  3,313
  3,634
  3,969
  4,318
  4,682
  5,060
  5,440
  5,849
  6,274
  6,715
  7,174
  7,650
  8,146
  8,662
  9,199
  9,759
  10,342
  10,949
  11,583
  12,244
  12,935
  13,656
  14,409
  15,197
  16,020
  16,881
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,082
  2,172
  2,435
  2,713
  3,006
  3,313
  3,634
  3,969
  4,318
  4,682
  5,060
  5,440
  5,849
  6,274
  6,715
  7,174
  7,650
  8,146
  8,662
  9,199
  9,759
  10,342
  10,949
  11,583
  12,244
  12,935
  13,656
  14,409
  15,197
  16,020
  16,881
Operating income, $m
  53
  211
  239
  267
  298
  330
  363
  398
  434
  471
  511
  564
  606
  650
  696
  743
  793
  844
  897
  953
  1,011
  1,071
  1,134
  1,200
  1,269
  1,340
  1,415
  1,493
  1,574
  1,660
  1,749
EBITDA, $m
  110
  257
  289
  322
  357
  393
  432
  472
  513
  557
  602
  649
  697
  748
  801
  855
  912
  971
  1,033
  1,097
  1,163
  1,233
  1,305
  1,381
  1,460
  1,542
  1,628
  1,718
  1,812
  1,910
  2,013
Interest expense (income), $m
  17
  24
  29
  35
  41
  47
  54
  61
  69
  76
  84
  93
  101
  110
  119
  129
  139
  150
  161
  172
  184
  196
  209
  222
  236
  251
  266
  282
  298
  316
  334
Earnings before tax, $m
  9
  188
  210
  233
  257
  282
  309
  336
  365
  395
  426
  471
  505
  540
  576
  614
  653
  694
  737
  781
  827
  875
  926
  978
  1,032
  1,089
  1,149
  1,211
  1,276
  1,344
  1,415
Tax expense, $m
  4
  51
  57
  63
  69
  76
  83
  91
  99
  107
  115
  127
  136
  146
  156
  166
  176
  187
  199
  211
  223
  236
  250
  264
  279
  294
  310
  327
  345
  363
  382
Net income, $m
  5
  137
  153
  170
  187
  206
  225
  246
  267
  288
  311
  344
  369
  394
  421
  448
  477
  507
  538
  570
  604
  639
  676
  714
  754
  795
  839
  884
  932
  981
  1,033

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  230
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,193
  1,814
  2,035
  2,269
  2,514
  2,772
  3,042
  3,323
  3,616
  3,922
  4,239
  4,569
  4,913
  5,269
  5,640
  6,025
  6,425
  6,842
  7,275
  7,726
  8,196
  8,686
  9,196
  9,728
  10,284
  10,864
  11,469
  12,102
  12,763
  13,455
  14,178
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,963
  1,814
  2,035
  2,269
  2,514
  2,772
  3,042
  3,323
  3,616
  3,922
  4,239
  4,569
  4,913
  5,269
  5,640
  6,025
  6,425
  6,842
  7,275
  7,726
  8,196
  8,686
  9,196
  9,728
  10,284
  10,864
  11,469
  12,102
  12,763
  13,455
  14,178
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.088
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
  1.314
Average production assets, $m
  674
  276
  310
  346
  383
  423
  464
  506
  551
  598
  646
  696
  749
  803
  860
  918
  979
  1,043
  1,109
  1,178
  1,249
  1,324
  1,402
  1,483
  1,568
  1,656
  1,748
  1,845
  1,945
  2,051
  2,161
Working capital, $m
  722
  429
  481
  537
  595
  656
  719
  786
  855
  928
  1,003
  1,081
  1,162
  1,246
  1,334
  1,425
  1,520
  1,618
  1,721
  1,827
  1,939
  2,054
  2,175
  2,301
  2,432
  2,569
  2,713
  2,862
  3,019
  3,182
  3,353
Total debt, $m
  759
  829
  994
  1,169
  1,353
  1,545
  1,747
  1,958
  2,177
  2,405
  2,643
  2,890
  3,147
  3,413
  3,691
  3,979
  4,278
  4,590
  4,914
  5,251
  5,603
  5,969
  6,351
  6,749
  7,164
  7,598
  8,051
  8,524
  9,019
  9,536
  10,077
Total liabilities, $m
  1,273
  1,357
  1,522
  1,697
  1,881
  2,073
  2,275
  2,486
  2,705
  2,933
  3,171
  3,418
  3,675
  3,941
  4,219
  4,507
  4,806
  5,118
  5,442
  5,779
  6,131
  6,497
  6,879
  7,277
  7,692
  8,126
  8,579
  9,052
  9,547
  10,064
  10,605
Total equity, $m
  920
  457
  513
  572
  634
  699
  766
  837
  911
  988
  1,068
  1,151
  1,238
  1,328
  1,421
  1,518
  1,619
  1,724
  1,833
  1,947
  2,065
  2,189
  2,317
  2,452
  2,592
  2,738
  2,890
  3,050
  3,216
  3,391
  3,573
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,193
  1,814
  2,035
  2,269
  2,515
  2,772
  3,041
  3,323
  3,616
  3,921
  4,239
  4,569
  4,913
  5,269
  5,640
  6,025
  6,425
  6,842
  7,275
  7,726
  8,196
  8,686
  9,196
  9,729
  10,284
  10,864
  11,469
  12,102
  12,763
  13,455
  14,178
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.825
  1.810
  1.940
  2.040
  2.130
  2.210
  2.280
  2.340
  2.390
  2.430
  2.470
  2.510
  2.540
  2.570
  2.600
  2.620
  2.640
  2.660
  2.680
  2.700
  2.710
  2.730
  2.740
  2.750
  2.760
  2.780
  2.790
  2.800
  2.800
  2.810
  2.820
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.352
  0.252
  0.252
  0.252
  0.252
  0.252
  0.252
  0.252
  0.252
  0.252
  0.252
  0.252
  0.252
  0.252
  0.252
  0.252
  0.252
  0.252
  0.252
  0.252
  0.252
  0.252
  0.252
  0.252
  0.252
  0.252
  0.252
  0.252
  0.252
  0.252
  0.252

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  5
  137
  153
  170
  187
  206
  225
  246
  267
  288
  311
  344
  369
  394
  421
  448
  477
  507
  538
  570
  604
  639
  676
  714
  754
  795
  839
  884
  932
  981
  1,033
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  57
  46
  50
  55
  59
  64
  69
  74
  80
  85
  91
  85
  91
  98
  105
  112
  119
  127
  135
  144
  152
  161
  171
  181
  191
  202
  213
  225
  237
  250
  264
Funds from operations, $m
  5
  183
  203
  224
  247
  270
  294
  320
  346
  374
  402
  429
  460
  492
  525
  560
  596
  634
  673
  714
  756
  800
  847
  895
  945
  997
  1,052
  1,109
  1,169
  1,231
  1,297
Change in working capital, $m
  -74
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  88
  91
  95
  99
  103
  107
  111
  116
  121
  126
  131
  137
  143
  150
  156
  164
  171
Cash from operations, $m
  79
  -62
  151
  169
  189
  209
  231
  253
  277
  302
  327
  351
  379
  408
  438
  469
  502
  535
  571
  607
  645
  685
  726
  769
  813
  860
  909
  959
  1,012
  1,068
  1,126
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -30
  -34
  -38
  -42
  -47
  -52
  -57
  -62
  -67
  -73
  -79
  -85
  -91
  -98
  -105
  -112
  -119
  -127
  -135
  -144
  -152
  -161
  -171
  -181
  -191
  -202
  -213
  -225
  -237
  -250
New CAPEX, $m
  -158
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -105
  -110
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -322
  -62
  -68
  -74
  -79
  -86
  -93
  -100
  -107
  -114
  -121
  -129
  -137
  -145
  -154
  -164
  -173
  -182
  -193
  -204
  -216
  -227
  -239
  -252
  -266
  -279
  -294
  -309
  -326
  -342
  -360
Free cash flow, $m
  -243
  -123
  83
  96
  109
  123
  138
  154
  170
  188
  206
  222
  241
  262
  283
  306
  329
  353
  377
  403
  430
  458
  487
  517
  548
  580
  614
  650
  687
  725
  765
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -1
  157
  166
  175
  184
  193
  202
  210
  219
  228
  238
  247
  257
  267
  277
  288
  300
  312
  324
  337
  351
  366
  382
  398
  415
  434
  453
  473
  495
  517
  541
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -2
  157
  166
  175
  184
  193
  202
  210
  219
  228
  238
  247
  257
  267
  277
  288
  300
  312
  324
  337
  351
  366
  382
  398
  415
  434
  453
  473
  495
  517
  541
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -244
  33
  249
  270
  293
  316
  340
  364
  390
  416
  444
  469
  498
  529
  561
  594
  628
  664
  702
  741
  781
  824
  868
  915
  963
  1,014
  1,067
  1,123
  1,181
  1,242
  1,306
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -34
  -52
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -109
  -114
  -118
  -123
  -129
  -134
  -140
  -146
  -153
  -159
  -167
  -174
  -182
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  481
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  462
  193
  212
  231
  251
  272
  293
  316
  339
  364
  385
  412
  439
  467
  497
  527
  559
  592
  627
  663
  701
  740
  781
  823
  868
  915
  964
  1,015
  1,068
  1,124
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  443
  177
  184
  190
  194
  197
  198
  197
  195
  191
  183
  176
  167
  157
  146
  134
  122
  109
  97
  84
  72
  61
  51
  42
  34
  27
  21
  16
  12
  8
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

RH, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the retail of home furnishings. It offers products in various categories, such as furniture, lighting, textiles, bathware, d├ęcor, outdoor and garden, tableware, and child and teen furnishings. The company sells products through its stores and catalogs, as well as through its Websites, such as restorationhardware.com, rh.com, rhbabyandchild.com, rhteen.com, and rhmodern.com. As of October 29, 2016, it operated 85 retail galleries that include 51 legacy galleries, 6 larger format design galleries, 7 next generation design galleries, 1 RH modern gallery, and 5 RH baby & child galleries throughout the United States and Canada; 15 Waterworks showrooms in the United States and the United Kingdom; and 28 outlet stores. The company was formerly known as Restoration Hardware Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to RH in January 2017. RH was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Corte Madera, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  RH (RH)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 462.6
Price to Sales 1.1
Price to Book 2.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 29.3
Price to Free Cash Flow -29.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 1.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 17.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 10.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 82.5%
Total Debt to Equity 82.5%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Return On Total Capital 0.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.8%
Return On Equity 0.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.9%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 31.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.9%
EBITDA Margin 3.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Operating Margin 2.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 0.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.2%
Net Profit Margin 0.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.1%
Effective Tax Rate 44.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

RH stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the RH stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2109 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by RH. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of RH. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our RH stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 13% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for RH is calculated based on our internal credit rating of RH, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of RH.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of RH stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for RH stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for RH.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for RH. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the RH stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for RH are equal to 11.6%.

Life of production assets of 8.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in RH operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for RH is equal to 18%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $886 million for RH - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 37.949 million for RH is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of RH at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.1 billion.

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▶ Why The Stock Formerly Known As Restoration Hardware Sold Off   [May-11-17 04:03PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Earnings Calendar, Analyst Estimates And Stocks To Watch   [12:55PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ RH revises guidance; shares slide   [09:17AM  MarketWatch]
▶ RH shares spike after share buyback program announced   [May-05-17 03:26PM  MarketWatch]
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▶ Company News for March 30, 2017   [10:10AM  at Investopedia]
Stock chart of RH Financial statements of RH Annual reports of RH
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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