Intrinsic value of RiceBran Technologies - RIBT

Previous Close

$1.01

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

  Value-price divergence*

0%

Previous close

$1.01

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

0%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of RIBT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -2.50
  10.00
  9.50
  9.05
  8.64
  8.28
  7.95
  7.66
  7.39
  7.15
  6.94
  6.74
  6.57
  6.41
  6.27
  6.14
  6.03
  5.93
  5.83
  5.75
  5.68
  5.61
  5.55
  5.49
  5.44
  5.40
  5.36
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.24
Revenue, $m
  39
  43
  47
  51
  56
  60
  65
  70
  75
  81
  86
  92
  98
  104
  111
  118
  125
  132
  140
  148
  156
  165
  174
  184
  194
  204
  215
  227
  239
  251
  264
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  52
  57
  62
  67
  73
  78
  84
  91
  97
  104
  111
  118
  125
  133
  142
  150
  159
  168
  178
  188
  199
  210
  221
  233
  246
  259
  273
  287
  302
  318
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  49
  52
  57
  62
  67
  73
  78
  84
  91
  97
  104
  111
  118
  125
  133
  142
  150
  159
  168
  178
  188
  199
  210
  221
  233
  246
  259
  273
  287
  302
  318
Operating income, $m
  -10
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
EBITDA, $m
  -7
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
Earnings before tax, $m
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  29
  32
  35
  38
  41
  45
  48
  52
  56
  60
  64
  68
  73
  78
  82
  87
  93
  98
  104
  110
  116
  123
  130
  137
  144
  152
  160
  169
  177
  187
  197
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  29
  32
  35
  38
  41
  45
  48
  52
  56
  60
  64
  68
  73
  78
  82
  87
  93
  98
  104
  110
  116
  123
  130
  137
  144
  152
  160
  169
  177
  187
  197
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.345
  1.344
  1.343
  1.342
  1.366
  1.333
  1.354
  1.346
  1.339
  1.350
  1.344
  1.353
  1.342
  1.333
  1.354
  1.356
  1.344
  1.347
  1.346
  1.345
  1.345
  1.341
  1.338
  1.343
  1.347
  1.342
  1.344
  1.343
  1.350
  1.342
  1.340
Average production assets, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
Working capital, $m
  -13
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
Total debt, $m
  16
  16
  18
  21
  24
  27
  31
  34
  37
  41
  45
  49
  53
  57
  61
  66
  70
  75
  81
  86
  92
  97
  104
  110
  117
  124
  131
  139
  147
  155
  164
Total liabilities, $m
  29
  29
  31
  34
  37
  40
  44
  47
  50
  54
  58
  62
  66
  70
  74
  79
  83
  88
  94
  99
  105
  110
  117
  123
  130
  137
  144
  152
  160
  168
  177
Total equity, $m
  0
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  29
  32
  34
  38
  41
  44
  49
  52
  56
  60
  64
  69
  73
  78
  82
  88
  92
  98
  104
  110
  117
  122
  130
  137
  144
  152
  160
  169
  178
  187
  197
Debt-to-equity ratio
  
Warning: Division by zero in /home3/webhub/public_html/x-fin.com/stocks/a-inc/tbl-cashflow.php on line 175
0.000
  4.920
  5.280
  5.590
  5.860
  6.100
  6.310
  6.500
  6.680
  6.830
  6.970
  7.100
  7.220
  7.320
  7.420
  7.510
  7.600
  7.680
  7.750
  7.820
  7.880
  7.940
  8.000
  8.050
  8.100
  8.140
  8.190
  8.230
  8.270
  8.300
  8.340
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.000
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  -2
  -11
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -73
Change in working capital, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from operations, $m
  -4
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -72
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  -3
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -3
  0
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  3
  14
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  2
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  49
  52
  54
  57
  61
  64
  67
  71
  75
  78
  83
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -1
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  7
  -14
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -11
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
Discount rate, %
 
  16.10
  16.91
  17.75
  18.64
  19.57
  20.55
  21.58
  22.65
  23.79
  24.98
  26.23
  27.54
  28.91
  30.36
  31.88
  33.47
  35.14
  36.90
  38.75
  40.68
  42.72
  44.85
  47.10
  49.45
  51.92
  54.52
  57.25
  60.11
  63.11
  66.27
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -9
  -6
  -6
  -5
  -5
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  10.6
  2.2
  0.5
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

RiceBran Technologies processes and markets healthy, natural, and nutrient dense products derived from raw rice bran. The company manufactures and distributes stabilized rice bran (SRB) in various granulations together with other products and derivatives; and extracts crude rice bran oil and defatted rice bran from rice bran, animal nutrition products, human food and animal nutrition product derivatives and co-products. It also offers RiBalance, a rice bran nutritional package derived from further processing of SRB; RiSolubles, a nutritious carbohydrate and lipid rich fraction of RiBalance; RiFiber, a protein and fiber rich derivative of RiBalance; and protein and protein/fiber blends under the ProRyza brand. In addition, the company provides distilled fatty acids, a raw material for the detergent industry; and rice lecithin for human nutrition, animal nutrition, and industry applications. It serves manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers of organic and natural food, functional food, nutria-cosmetic, and animal nutrition products in the United States, Brazil, and internationally. The company was formerly known as NutraCea and changed its name to RiceBran Technologies in October 2012. RiceBran Technologies was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona.


Warning: Division by zero in /home3/webhub/public_html/x-fin.com/stocks/a-inc/ratios.php on line 6

Warning: Division by zero in /home3/webhub/public_html/x-fin.com/stocks/a-inc/ratios.php on line 22

Warning: Division by zero in /home3/webhub/public_html/x-fin.com/stocks/a-inc/ratios.php on line 23

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  RiceBran Technologies (RIBT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -1.2
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book 0
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -2.7
Price to Free Cash Flow -2.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -2.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -19.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage -5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -22.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -27.1%
Return On Total Capital -46.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -52%
Return On Equity -257.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -178.6%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 20.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.8%
EBITDA Margin -15.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -23.5%
Operating Margin -25.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -26.9%
Pre-Tax Margin -28.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -41.9%
Net Profit Margin -23.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -33.5%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

RIBT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the RIBT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $39 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by RiceBran Technologies. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of RiceBran Technologies. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our RIBT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 16.1%, whose default value for RIBT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of RiceBran Technologies, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of RiceBran Technologies.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of RIBT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 120.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for RIBT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 12.5% for RiceBran Technologies.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for RiceBran Technologies. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the RIBT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for RIBT are equal to 1.3%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in RiceBran Technologies operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for RIBT is equal to -7.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $0 million for RiceBran Technologies - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 11.28 million for RiceBran Technologies is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of RiceBran Technologies at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
SEB Seaboard 4,176.69 891.79  str.sell
BG Bunge 79.63 1,429.43  str.buy
ADM Archer Daniels 41.26 7.26  str.sell
GIS General Mills 54.35 33.04  sell
PF Pinnacle Foods 61.15 33.86  sell
INGR Ingredion 122.01 88.62  sell
BGS B&G Foods 37.25 27.64  hold

COMPANY NEWS

▶ [$$] Rosewood Acquires RiceBran Subsidiary   [Jul-14-17 06:56PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ RiceBran Technologies Reports Q1 2017 Financial Results   [May-11-17 04:05PM  PR Newswire]
Stock chart of RIBT Financial statements of RIBT Annual reports of RIBT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

FREE DOWNLOAD
Follow us on:   twitter   twitter   twitter   twitter

VALUATION THEORY       ASSET ALLOCATION

About X-FIN       Site news       Privacy policy       Terms of use       FAQ

Copyright © X-FIN.com 2005-2017. All rigths reserved.