Intrinsic value of Transocean - RIG

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$10.46

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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$10.46

 
Intrinsic value

$10.02

 
Up/down potential

-4%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of RIG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -43.66
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  4,161
  4,244
  4,342
  4,453
  4,579
  4,718
  4,870
  5,036
  5,215
  5,409
  5,616
  5,838
  6,075
  6,327
  6,596
  6,880
  7,182
  7,501
  7,838
  8,195
  8,571
  8,969
  9,388
  9,829
  10,295
  10,785
  11,301
  11,844
  12,416
  13,017
  13,649
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  3,459
  3,539
  3,630
  3,732
  3,845
  3,969
  4,104
  4,250
  4,408
  4,577
  4,758
  4,951
  5,157
  5,375
  5,607
  5,853
  6,113
  6,388
  6,679
  6,986
  7,310
  7,651
  8,011
  8,390
  8,790
  9,210
  9,653
  10,119
  10,609
  11,124
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,029
  3,459
  3,539
  3,630
  3,732
  3,845
  3,969
  4,104
  4,250
  4,408
  4,577
  4,758
  4,951
  5,157
  5,375
  5,607
  5,853
  6,113
  6,388
  6,679
  6,986
  7,310
  7,651
  8,011
  8,390
  8,790
  9,210
  9,653
  10,119
  10,609
  11,124
Operating income, $m
  1,132
  785
  803
  824
  847
  873
  901
  932
  965
  1,001
  1,039
  1,080
  1,124
  1,171
  1,220
  1,273
  1,329
  1,388
  1,450
  1,516
  1,586
  1,659
  1,737
  1,818
  1,905
  1,995
  2,091
  2,191
  2,297
  2,408
  2,525
EBITDA, $m
  2,025
  1,695
  1,734
  1,778
  1,828
  1,883
  1,944
  2,011
  2,082
  2,159
  2,242
  2,331
  2,426
  2,526
  2,633
  2,747
  2,867
  2,995
  3,129
  3,272
  3,422
  3,581
  3,748
  3,924
  4,110
  4,306
  4,512
  4,729
  4,957
  5,197
  5,450
Interest expense (income), $m
  351
  317
  325
  335
  346
  359
  373
  389
  406
  424
  444
  465
  487
  512
  537
  565
  594
  624
  657
  691
  728
  766
  807
  849
  894
  942
  992
  1,044
  1,100
  1,158
  1,219
Earnings before tax, $m
  934
  468
  478
  489
  501
  514
  528
  543
  559
  577
  595
  615
  636
  659
  683
  708
  735
  763
  793
  825
  858
  893
  930
  969
  1,010
  1,054
  1,099
  1,147
  1,197
  1,250
  1,306
Tax expense, $m
  107
  126
  129
  132
  135
  139
  142
  147
  151
  156
  161
  166
  172
  178
  184
  191
  198
  206
  214
  223
  232
  241
  251
  262
  273
  284
  297
  310
  323
  338
  353
Net income, $m
  778
  342
  349
  357
  366
  375
  385
  396
  408
  421
  435
  449
  465
  481
  498
  517
  537
  557
  579
  602
  626
  652
  679
  708
  738
  769
  802
  837
  874
  913
  953

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  3,052
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  26,889
  24,253
  24,810
  25,448
  26,164
  26,957
  27,828
  28,775
  29,801
  30,906
  32,092
  33,361
  34,715
  36,157
  37,689
  39,315
  41,038
  42,862
  44,790
  46,828
  48,980
  51,250
  53,644
  56,168
  58,827
  61,628
  64,576
  67,680
  70,946
  74,382
  77,996
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  23,837
  24,253
  24,810
  25,448
  26,164
  26,957
  27,828
  28,775
  29,801
  30,906
  32,092
  33,361
  34,715
  36,157
  37,689
  39,315
  41,038
  42,862
  44,790
  46,828
  48,980
  51,250
  53,644
  56,168
  58,827
  61,628
  64,576
  67,680
  70,946
  74,382
  77,996
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
  0.175
Average production assets, $m
  20,951
  21,370
  21,861
  22,423
  23,054
  23,753
  24,520
  25,355
  26,258
  27,232
  28,277
  29,396
  30,589
  31,859
  33,209
  34,641
  36,159
  37,766
  39,466
  41,261
  43,157
  45,158
  47,267
  49,491
  51,834
  54,302
  56,900
  59,634
  62,512
  65,540
  68,724
Working capital, $m
  3,113
  802
  821
  842
  865
  892
  920
  952
  986
  1,022
  1,061
  1,103
  1,148
  1,196
  1,247
  1,300
  1,357
  1,418
  1,481
  1,549
  1,620
  1,695
  1,774
  1,858
  1,946
  2,038
  2,136
  2,239
  2,347
  2,460
  2,580
Total debt, $m
  8,464
  7,927
  8,170
  8,447
  8,758
  9,103
  9,482
  9,894
  10,340
  10,821
  11,337
  11,889
  12,478
  13,105
  13,772
  14,479
  15,228
  16,022
  16,861
  17,747
  18,683
  19,671
  20,712
  21,810
  22,967
  24,185
  25,468
  26,818
  28,238
  29,733
  31,305
Total liabilities, $m
  11,087
  10,550
  10,793
  11,070
  11,381
  11,726
  12,105
  12,517
  12,963
  13,444
  13,960
  14,512
  15,101
  15,728
  16,395
  17,102
  17,851
  18,645
  19,484
  20,370
  21,306
  22,294
  23,335
  24,433
  25,590
  26,808
  28,091
  29,441
  30,861
  32,356
  33,928
Total equity, $m
  15,802
  13,703
  14,018
  14,378
  14,783
  15,231
  15,723
  16,258
  16,838
  17,462
  18,132
  18,849
  19,614
  20,429
  21,294
  22,213
  23,186
  24,217
  25,306
  26,458
  27,673
  28,956
  30,309
  31,735
  33,237
  34,820
  36,486
  38,239
  40,084
  42,026
  44,068
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  26,889
  24,253
  24,811
  25,448
  26,164
  26,957
  27,828
  28,775
  29,801
  30,906
  32,092
  33,361
  34,715
  36,157
  37,689
  39,315
  41,037
  42,862
  44,790
  46,828
  48,979
  51,250
  53,644
  56,168
  58,827
  61,628
  64,577
  67,680
  70,945
  74,382
  77,996
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.536
  0.580
  0.580
  0.590
  0.590
  0.600
  0.600
  0.610
  0.610
  0.620
  0.630
  0.630
  0.640
  0.640
  0.650
  0.650
  0.660
  0.660
  0.670
  0.670
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.710
  0.710
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.535
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565
  0.565

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  778
  342
  349
  357
  366
  375
  385
  396
  408
  421
  435
  449
  465
  481
  498
  517
  537
  557
  579
  602
  626
  652
  679
  708
  738
  769
  802
  837
  874
  913
  953
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  893
  909
  930
  954
  981
  1,011
  1,043
  1,079
  1,117
  1,159
  1,203
  1,251
  1,302
  1,356
  1,413
  1,474
  1,539
  1,607
  1,679
  1,756
  1,836
  1,922
  2,011
  2,106
  2,206
  2,311
  2,421
  2,538
  2,660
  2,789
  2,924
Funds from operations, $m
  1,889
  1,251
  1,279
  1,311
  1,347
  1,386
  1,429
  1,475
  1,526
  1,580
  1,638
  1,700
  1,766
  1,837
  1,912
  1,991
  2,075
  2,164
  2,258
  2,358
  2,463
  2,574
  2,690
  2,814
  2,943
  3,080
  3,224
  3,375
  3,534
  3,702
  3,878
Change in working capital, $m
  -22
  16
  18
  21
  24
  26
  29
  31
  34
  37
  39
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  64
  67
  71
  75
  79
  83
  88
  93
  98
  103
  108
  114
  120
Cash from operations, $m
  1,911
  1,377
  1,261
  1,290
  1,323
  1,359
  1,400
  1,444
  1,492
  1,543
  1,599
  1,658
  1,721
  1,789
  1,861
  1,937
  2,018
  2,104
  2,195
  2,290
  2,392
  2,499
  2,611
  2,730
  2,855
  2,987
  3,126
  3,272
  3,426
  3,588
  3,758
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -892
  -909
  -930
  -954
  -981
  -1,011
  -1,043
  -1,079
  -1,117
  -1,159
  -1,203
  -1,251
  -1,302
  -1,356
  -1,413
  -1,474
  -1,539
  -1,607
  -1,679
  -1,756
  -1,836
  -1,922
  -2,011
  -2,106
  -2,206
  -2,311
  -2,421
  -2,538
  -2,660
  -2,789
New CAPEX, $m
  -1,344
  -419
  -492
  -562
  -631
  -699
  -767
  -835
  -904
  -974
  -1,045
  -1,118
  -1,193
  -1,270
  -1,350
  -1,433
  -1,518
  -1,607
  -1,699
  -1,796
  -1,896
  -2,000
  -2,110
  -2,224
  -2,343
  -2,468
  -2,598
  -2,735
  -2,878
  -3,027
  -3,184
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1,313
  -1,311
  -1,401
  -1,492
  -1,585
  -1,680
  -1,778
  -1,878
  -1,983
  -2,091
  -2,204
  -2,321
  -2,444
  -2,572
  -2,706
  -2,846
  -2,992
  -3,146
  -3,306
  -3,475
  -3,652
  -3,836
  -4,032
  -4,235
  -4,449
  -4,674
  -4,909
  -5,156
  -5,416
  -5,687
  -5,973
Free cash flow, $m
  598
  67
  -140
  -202
  -262
  -320
  -378
  -435
  -491
  -548
  -605
  -663
  -722
  -783
  -845
  -908
  -974
  -1,042
  -1,112
  -1,184
  -1,260
  -1,338
  -1,420
  -1,505
  -1,594
  -1,686
  -1,783
  -1,884
  -1,989
  -2,100
  -2,215
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  145
  187
  243
  277
  311
  345
  379
  412
  446
  481
  516
  552
  589
  627
  666
  707
  749
  793
  839
  886
  936
  988
  1,042
  1,098
  1,157
  1,218
  1,283
  1,350
  1,421
  1,495
  1,572
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  212
  285
  355
  424
  491
  558
  625
  692
  759
  828
  898
  970
  1,044
  1,120
  1,198
  1,279
  1,363
  1,449
  1,540
  1,634
  1,731
  1,833
  1,939
  2,050
  2,166
  2,287
  2,414
  2,546
  2,685
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  115
  187
  455
  562
  666
  769
  870
  970
  1,071
  1,173
  1,275
  1,380
  1,487
  1,597
  1,710
  1,827
  1,947
  2,072
  2,202
  2,335
  2,476
  2,622
  2,773
  2,931
  3,096
  3,268
  3,449
  3,637
  3,835
  4,041
  4,257
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  713
  254
  103
  75
  49
  25
  1
  -22
  -45
  -67
  -89
  -111
  -133
  -156
  -178
  -201
  -224
  -248
  -273
  -298
  -324
  -351
  -378
  -407
  -437
  -468
  -500
  -534
  -569
  -605
  -643
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -1,112
  -229
  -315
  -360
  -404
  -448
  -492
  -535
  -580
  -624
  -670
  -717
  -765
  -815
  -866
  -919
  -973
  -1,030
  -1,090
  -1,151
  -1,216
  -1,283
  -1,353
  -1,426
  -1,502
  -1,582
  -1,666
  -1,754
  -1,845
  -1,941
  -2,042
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  2,328
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  2,353
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  5.20
  5.46
  5.73
  6.02
  6.32
  6.64
  6.97
  7.32
  7.68
  8.07
  8.47
  8.89
  9.34
  9.81
  10.30
  10.81
  11.35
  11.92
  12.51
  13.14
  13.80
  14.49
  15.21
  15.97
  16.77
  17.61
  18.49
  19.41
  20.38
  21.40
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  2,237
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  97.8
  95.1
  91.8
  88.2
  84.3
  80.3
  76.1
  71.9
  67.7
  63.5
  59.5
  55.5
  51.8
  48.2
  44.7
  41.4
  38.4
  35.5
  32.7
  30.2
  27.8
  25.6
  23.5
  21.6
  19.9
  18.2
  16.7
  15.3
  14.1

Transocean Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides offshore contract drilling services for oil and gas wells worldwide. The company primarily offers deepwater and harsh environment drilling services. As of February 11, 2016, it owned or had partial ownership interests in, and operated 61 mobile offshore drilling units that consist of 28 ultra-deepwater floaters, 7 harsh environment floaters, 5 deepwater floaters, 11 midwater floaters, and 10 high-specification jackups. The company serves government-controlled oil companies and independent oil companies. Transocean Ltd. was founded in 1953 and is based in Vernier, Switzerland.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Transocean (RIG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 5.2
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book 0.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 2.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 7.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -43.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -32.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -9.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 4
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity 49%
Total Debt to Equity 53.6%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.4%
Return On Total Capital 3.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.1%
Return On Equity 5.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.3%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 54.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 53.1%
EBITDA Margin 52.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.7%
Operating Margin 27.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 22.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.6%
Net Profit Margin 18.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Effective Tax Rate 11.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Payout Ratio 0%

RIG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the RIG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4161 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Transocean. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Transocean. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our RIG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.2%, whose default value for RIG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Transocean, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Transocean.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of RIG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 81.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for RIG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.1% for Transocean.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Transocean. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the RIG stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for RIG are equal to 503.5%.

Life of production assets of 23.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Transocean operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for RIG is equal to 18.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $15802 million for Transocean - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 394.378 million for Transocean is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Transocean at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.1 billion.


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Stock chart of RIG Financial statements of RIG Annual reports of RIG
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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