Intrinsic value of Arcadia Biosciences - RKDA

Previous Close

$7.43

  Intrinsic Value

$1.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-87%

Previous close

$7.43

 
Intrinsic value

$1.00

 
Up/down potential

-87%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of RKDA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -40.00
  26.30
  24.17
  22.25
  20.53
  18.97
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.25
  12.43
  11.68
  11.02
  10.41
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
  7.33
  7.10
  6.89
  6.70
  6.53
  6.38
  6.24
  6.11
  6.00
Revenue, $m
  3
  5
  6
  8
  9
  11
  13
  15
  17
  20
  22
  25
  28
  31
  34
  38
  41
  45
  49
  53
  57
  62
  66
  71
  76
  81
  86
  91
  97
  103
  109
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  35
  44
  53
  64
  76
  90
  105
  120
  138
  156
  175
  196
  217
  240
  263
  288
  314
  341
  369
  398
  428
  459
  492
  526
  561
  598
  636
  676
  717
  760
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  22
  35
  44
  53
  64
  76
  90
  105
  120
  138
  156
  175
  196
  217
  240
  263
  288
  314
  341
  369
  398
  428
  459
  492
  526
  561
  598
  636
  676
  717
  760
Operating income, $m
  -19
  -30
  -37
  -46
  -55
  -65
  -77
  -90
  -103
  -118
  -133
  -150
  -167
  -186
  -205
  -226
  -247
  -269
  -292
  -316
  -341
  -366
  -393
  -421
  -450
  -480
  -512
  -544
  -578
  -614
  -651
EBITDA, $m
  -19
  -30
  -37
  -46
  -55
  -65
  -77
  -89
  -103
  -118
  -133
  -150
  -167
  -186
  -205
  -225
  -246
  -268
  -291
  -315
  -340
  -366
  -393
  -421
  -450
  -480
  -511
  -544
  -577
  -613
  -650
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
Earnings before tax, $m
  -20
  -30
  -37
  -46
  -55
  -66
  -78
  -90
  -104
  -119
  -135
  -152
  -169
  -188
  -208
  -228
  -250
  -272
  -296
  -320
  -345
  -371
  -399
  -427
  -456
  -487
  -519
  -552
  -586
  -622
  -660
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -20
  -30
  -37
  -46
  -55
  -66
  -78
  -90
  -104
  -119
  -135
  -152
  -169
  -188
  -208
  -228
  -250
  -272
  -296
  -320
  -345
  -371
  -399
  -427
  -456
  -487
  -519
  -552
  -586
  -622
  -660

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  51
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  57
  9
  11
  13
  16
  19
  23
  26
  30
  35
  39
  44
  49
  55
  61
  67
  73
  79
  86
  93
  101
  108
  116
  124
  133
  142
  151
  161
  171
  181
  192
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  6
  9
  11
  13
  16
  19
  23
  26
  30
  35
  39
  44
  49
  55
  61
  67
  73
  79
  86
  93
  101
  108
  116
  124
  133
  142
  151
  161
  171
  181
  192
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.500
  0.556
  0.545
  0.615
  0.563
  0.579
  0.565
  0.577
  0.567
  0.571
  0.564
  0.568
  0.571
  0.564
  0.557
  0.567
  0.562
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.564
  0.574
  0.569
  0.573
  0.571
  0.570
  0.570
  0.565
  0.567
  0.569
  0.568
Average production assets, $m
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
Working capital, $m
  49
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
Total debt, $m
  25
  -1
  1
  4
  6
  9
  12
  15
  19
  23
  27
  31
  36
  41
  46
  51
  57
  63
  69
  75
  82
  89
  96
  103
  111
  119
  127
  136
  145
  154
  164
Total liabilities, $m
  34
  8
  10
  12
  15
  17
  20
  24
  27
  31
  35
  40
  44
  49
  55
  60
  66
  71
  78
  84
  90
  97
  104
  112
  120
  128
  136
  145
  154
  163
  173
Total equity, $m
  22
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  56
  9
  11
  13
  17
  19
  22
  27
  30
  34
  39
  44
  49
  54
  61
  67
  73
  79
  87
  93
  100
  108
  116
  124
  133
  142
  151
  161
  171
  181
  192
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.136
  -0.650
  1.230
  2.640
  3.720
  4.570
  5.230
  5.760
  6.190
  6.530
  6.820
  7.060
  7.270
  7.440
  7.590
  7.710
  7.820
  7.920
  8.000
  8.080
  8.150
  8.210
  8.260
  8.310
  8.360
  8.400
  8.430
  8.470
  8.500
  8.530
  8.550
Adjusted equity ratio
  -4.833
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -20
  -30
  -37
  -46
  -55
  -66
  -78
  -90
  -104
  -119
  -135
  -152
  -169
  -188
  -208
  -228
  -250
  -272
  -296
  -320
  -345
  -371
  -399
  -427
  -456
  -487
  -519
  -552
  -586
  -622
  -660
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
Funds from operations, $m
  -16
  -30
  -37
  -46
  -55
  -66
  -77
  -90
  -104
  -119
  -135
  -151
  -169
  -188
  -207
  -228
  -249
  -272
  -295
  -319
  -344
  -371
  -398
  -426
  -456
  -486
  -518
  -551
  -585
  -621
  -659
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Cash from operations, $m
  -17
  -30
  -37
  -45
  -55
  -65
  -77
  -90
  -103
  -118
  -134
  -151
  -168
  -187
  -206
  -227
  -248
  -271
  -294
  -318
  -343
  -369
  -397
  -425
  -454
  -485
  -516
  -549
  -584
  -620
  -657
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Free cash flow, $m
  -22
  -30
  -37
  -45
  -55
  -66
  -77
  -90
  -104
  -118
  -134
  -151
  -169
  -187
  -207
  -228
  -249
  -271
  -295
  -319
  -344
  -370
  -398
  -426
  -455
  -486
  -518
  -551
  -585
  -621
  -659
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  -1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  32
  38
  46
  56
  66
  78
  91
  104
  119
  135
  152
  170
  189
  208
  229
  250
  273
  296
  321
  346
  372
  399
  428
  457
  488
  520
  553
  587
  623
  661
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  31
  40
  48
  58
  69
  81
  94
  108
  123
  139
  156
  175
  194
  213
  234
  256
  279
  302
  327
  353
  379
  406
  435
  465
  496
  528
  562
  596
  632
  671
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -22
  3
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  18
  -32
  -38
  -46
  -56
  -66
  -78
  -91
  -104
  -119
  -135
  -152
  -170
  -189
  -208
  -229
  -250
  -273
  -296
  -321
  -346
  -372
  -399
  -428
  -457
  -488
  -520
  -553
  -587
  -623
  -661
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  9
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -21
  -35
  -43
  -52
  -63
  -74
  -87
  -100
  -115
  -130
  -147
  -164
  -183
  -202
  -222
  -243
  -266
  -289
  -313
  -338
  -364
  -391
  -419
  -448
  -478
  -509
  -542
  -576
  -612
  -649
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -20
  -32
  -38
  -43
  -49
  -54
  -58
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -70
  -70
  -69
  -68
  -65
  -62
  -58
  -53
  -48
  -43
  -38
  -32
  -27
  -23
  -19
  -15
  -12
  -9
  -7
  -5
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  2.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Arcadia Biosciences, Inc. is an agricultural biotechnology trait company. The Company develops a portfolio of yield and traits addressing multiple crops that supply the global food and feed markets. It has a pipeline of products in development incorporating its traits, including products that are in advanced stages of development or on the market. Its crop yield traits are utilized by its partners to develop higher yielding seeds for global crops, including wheat, rice, soybean, corn, and sugarcane, as well as for other crops, such as cotton, turf and trees. The Company's portfolio of agricultural productivity traits includes Nitrogen Use Efficiency (NUE), Water Use Efficiency (WUE), Drought Tolerance (DT), Salinity Tolerance (ST) and Herbicide Tolerance. It has presence in the United States, Africa, India, the United Arab Emirates, Belgium, France and Canada.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Arcadia Biosciences (RKDA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -16.5
Price to Sales 110.2
Price to Book 15
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -19.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -19.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -40%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 113.6%
Total Debt to Equity 113.6%
Interest Coverage -19
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -29%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -52.8%
Return On Total Capital -35.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -147.5%
Return On Equity -64.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.1%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 66.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 79.4%
EBITDA Margin -633.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -394%
Operating Margin -633.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -389.2%
Pre-Tax Margin -666.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -423.2%
Net Profit Margin -666.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -427.9%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

RKDA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the RKDA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Arcadia Biosciences. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Arcadia Biosciences. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our RKDA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 26.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for RKDA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Arcadia Biosciences, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Arcadia Biosciences.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of RKDA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 695.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for RKDA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.9% for Arcadia Biosciences.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Arcadia Biosciences. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the RKDA stock is equal to 25%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for RKDA are equal to 10%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Arcadia Biosciences operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for RKDA is equal to -28%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $8 million for Arcadia Biosciences - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 2 million for Arcadia Biosciences is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Arcadia Biosciences at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Arcadia Biosciences launching tomato variety with longer shelf life   [Jul-20-18 09:42AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Arcadia Biosciences signs up network of farmers to grow GoodWheat   [Jun-27-18 06:04PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Benzinga Pro's 5 Stocks To Watch Today   [Jun-19-18 08:44AM  Benzinga]
▶ Conagra, PepsiCo veteran joins Arcadia Biosciences board; stock spikes   [May-15-18 05:53PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Arcadia Biosciences: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-09-18 05:41PM  Associated Press]
▶ Arcadia announces reduced-gluten wheat for breads, pasta   [Apr-17-18 05:52PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Davis-based Arcadia Biosciences crosses the valley of death   [Apr-06-18 08:50AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Arcadia Biosciences reports 4Q loss   [Mar-20-18 04:41PM  Associated Press]
▶ Arcadia raising $10 million in private offering, launching 'GoodWheat' brand products   [Mar-19-18 05:53PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Arcadia Biosciences Stock Erases 2017 Losses in Breakout   [Mar-15-18 12:10PM  Investopedia]
▶ Arcadia Biosciences Inc (NASDAQ:RKDA): Is Breakeven Near?   [Mar-08-18 12:27PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Davis-based Arcadia Biosciences names new chairman, after previous chairman's death   [Nov-22-17 09:30AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Arcadia Biosciences reports 3Q loss   [Nov-09-17 05:13PM  Associated Press]
▶ How Much Money Does Arcadia Biosciences Inc (RKDA) Have Left?   [Oct-04-17 01:26PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Arcadia Biosciences reports 2Q loss   [Aug-10-17 10:17PM  Associated Press]
▶ Amy Yoder Joins Arcadia Biosciences Board Of Directors   [Aug-09-17 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Arcadia Biosciences reports 1Q loss   [May-10-17 05:04PM  Associated Press]
▶ Arcadia Biosciences reports 4Q loss   [Mar-08-17 05:02PM  Associated Press]
Financial statements of RKDA
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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