Intrinsic value of RLJ Entertainment - RLJE

Previous Close

$3.86

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$3.86

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of RLJE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -19.19
  18.80
  17.42
  16.18
  15.06
  14.05
  13.15
  12.33
  11.60
  10.94
  10.35
  9.81
  9.33
  8.90
  8.51
  8.16
  7.84
  7.56
  7.30
  7.07
  6.86
  6.68
  6.51
  6.36
  6.22
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
Revenue, $m
  80
  95
  112
  130
  149
  170
  193
  216
  241
  268
  295
  324
  355
  386
  419
  453
  489
  526
  564
  604
  646
  689
  734
  780
  829
  879
  932
  987
  1,044
  1,104
  1,166
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  134
  157
  182
  210
  239
  270
  303
  338
  375
  414
  453
  495
  539
  585
  633
  682
  734
  787
  843
  901
  961
  1,024
  1,089
  1,156
  1,227
  1,301
  1,377
  1,457
  1,540
  1,627
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  87
  134
  157
  182
  210
  239
  270
  303
  338
  375
  414
  453
  495
  539
  585
  633
  682
  734
  787
  843
  901
  961
  1,024
  1,089
  1,156
  1,227
  1,301
  1,377
  1,457
  1,540
  1,627
Operating income, $m
  -7
  -39
  -46
  -53
  -60
  -69
  -78
  -87
  -97
  -107
  -118
  -128
  -140
  -153
  -166
  -179
  -193
  -208
  -223
  -239
  -255
  -272
  -290
  -309
  -328
  -348
  -369
  -390
  -413
  -437
  -461
EBITDA, $m
  -3
  -36
  -42
  -49
  -56
  -64
  -72
  -81
  -91
  -101
  -111
  -122
  -133
  -145
  -158
  -171
  -184
  -198
  -212
  -227
  -243
  -259
  -276
  -294
  -312
  -331
  -351
  -371
  -393
  -415
  -439
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
Earnings before tax, $m
  -18
  -40
  -47
  -55
  -64
  -73
  -83
  -94
  -105
  -117
  -129
  -140
  -154
  -168
  -182
  -198
  -213
  -230
  -247
  -265
  -283
  -302
  -322
  -343
  -364
  -387
  -410
  -434
  -460
  -486
  -514
Tax expense, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -22
  -40
  -47
  -55
  -64
  -73
  -83
  -94
  -105
  -117
  -129
  -140
  -154
  -168
  -182
  -198
  -213
  -230
  -247
  -265
  -283
  -302
  -322
  -343
  -364
  -387
  -410
  -434
  -460
  -486
  -514

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  136
  152
  179
  207
  239
  272
  308
  346
  386
  428
  473
  519
  568
  618
  671
  725
  782
  841
  903
  967
  1,033
  1,102
  1,174
  1,248
  1,326
  1,407
  1,491
  1,579
  1,671
  1,766
  1,866
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  128
  152
  179
  207
  239
  272
  308
  346
  386
  428
  473
  519
  568
  618
  671
  725
  782
  841
  903
  967
  1,033
  1,102
  1,174
  1,248
  1,326
  1,407
  1,491
  1,579
  1,671
  1,766
  1,866
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.625
  0.625
  0.626
  0.628
  0.623
  0.625
  0.627
  0.624
  0.624
  0.626
  0.624
  0.624
  0.625
  0.625
  0.624
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
Average production assets, $m
  9
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  22
  24
  27
  30
  33
  37
  40
  44
  47
  51
  55
  59
  64
  68
  73
  78
  83
  88
  94
  99
  105
  112
  118
  125
  132
Working capital, $m
  -34
  -50
  -59
  -68
  -78
  -89
  -101
  -114
  -127
  -141
  -155
  -170
  -186
  -203
  -220
  -238
  -257
  -276
  -296
  -317
  -339
  -362
  -385
  -410
  -435
  -462
  -489
  -518
  -548
  -580
  -612
Total debt, $m
  42
  56
  80
  106
  134
  164
  196
  230
  267
  305
  344
  386
  430
  475
  523
  572
  623
  676
  731
  789
  849
  911
  975
  1,042
  1,112
  1,185
  1,261
  1,340
  1,423
  1,509
  1,598
Total liabilities, $m
  123
  137
  161
  187
  215
  245
  277
  311
  348
  386
  425
  467
  511
  556
  604
  653
  704
  757
  812
  870
  930
  992
  1,056
  1,123
  1,193
  1,266
  1,342
  1,421
  1,504
  1,590
  1,679
Total equity, $m
  13
  15
  18
  21
  24
  27
  31
  35
  39
  43
  47
  52
  57
  62
  67
  73
  78
  84
  90
  97
  103
  110
  117
  125
  133
  141
  149
  158
  167
  177
  187
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  136
  152
  179
  208
  239
  272
  308
  346
  387
  429
  472
  519
  568
  618
  671
  726
  782
  841
  902
  967
  1,033
  1,102
  1,173
  1,248
  1,326
  1,407
  1,491
  1,579
  1,671
  1,767
  1,866
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.231
  3.670
  4.460
  5.100
  5.610
  6.020
  6.370
  6.660
  6.900
  7.110
  7.290
  7.440
  7.570
  7.690
  7.790
  7.880
  7.960
  8.040
  8.100
  8.160
  8.220
  8.260
  8.310
  8.350
  8.390
  8.420
  8.460
  8.490
  8.520
  8.540
  8.570
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.039
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -22
  -40
  -47
  -55
  -64
  -73
  -83
  -94
  -105
  -117
  -129
  -140
  -154
  -168
  -182
  -198
  -213
  -230
  -247
  -265
  -283
  -302
  -322
  -343
  -364
  -387
  -410
  -434
  -460
  -486
  -514
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  4
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
Funds from operations, $m
  -36
  -37
  -44
  -52
  -60
  -69
  -78
  -88
  -99
  -110
  -122
  -134
  -147
  -160
  -174
  -189
  -204
  -220
  -236
  -253
  -271
  -289
  -308
  -328
  -348
  -370
  -392
  -416
  -440
  -465
  -492
Change in working capital, $m
  -35
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
Cash from operations, $m
  -1
  -29
  -35
  -42
  -50
  -58
  -66
  -76
  -86
  -96
  -107
  -119
  -131
  -144
  -157
  -171
  -185
  -200
  -216
  -232
  -249
  -266
  -284
  -303
  -323
  -343
  -365
  -387
  -410
  -434
  -459
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
Free cash flow, $m
  -2
  -33
  -39
  -46
  -54
  -63
  -72
  -82
  -93
  -104
  -116
  -128
  -141
  -154
  -168
  -183
  -198
  -214
  -230
  -247
  -265
  -283
  -303
  -323
  -343
  -365
  -387
  -411
  -435
  -461
  -487
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -58
  14
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  90
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  51
  50
  58
  67
  77
  87
  98
  109
  121
  133
  145
  159
  173
  188
  203
  219
  236
  253
  271
  290
  309
  329
  350
  372
  395
  418
  443
  469
  496
  524
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  6
  65
  74
  84
  95
  107
  119
  132
  145
  159
  173
  187
  203
  218
  235
  252
  270
  289
  308
  328
  350
  371
  394
  417
  442
  468
  494
  522
  551
  582
  614
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  3
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  59
  61
  64
  67
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  88
  91
  95
  99
  103
  107
  112
  116
  121
  127
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -13
  -51
  -50
  -58
  -67
  -77
  -87
  -98
  -109
  -121
  -133
  -145
  -159
  -173
  -188
  -203
  -219
  -236
  -253
  -271
  -290
  -309
  -329
  -350
  -372
  -395
  -418
  -443
  -469
  -496
  -524
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -11
  -15
  -20
  -26
  -33
  -40
  -48
  -57
  -66
  -76
  -86
  -97
  -109
  -121
  -134
  -147
  -161
  -175
  -190
  -205
  -221
  -238
  -255
  -273
  -292
  -311
  -332
  -353
  -375
  -397
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -10
  -14
  -18
  -22
  -25
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -41
  -41
  -41
  -39
  -37
  -35
  -32
  -29
  -26
  -23
  -20
  -17
  -14
  -11
  -9
  -7
  -5
  -4
  -3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  28.4
  15.6
  8.6
  4.8
  2.7
  1.5
  0.8
  0.5
  0.3
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

RLJ Entertainment, Inc. (RLJE) is a global entertainment content distribution company. RLJE is a film and television licensee focusing on action, thriller and horror independent feature films. RLJE operates through three segments: Intellectual Property (IP) Licensing; Wholesale, and Direct-to-Consumer. The IP Licensing segment includes IP rights that the Company owns, produces and then exploits in various formats, including digital versatile disc, Blu-ray, digital, broadcast, video on demand, streaming video, downloading and sublicensing. The Wholesale segment exploits the content to third parties, such as Walmart, Best Buy, Target, Amazon and Costco, while the Direct-to-Consumer segment distributes directly to the consumer through different exploitation channels. The Direct-to-Consumer segment distributes film and television content through its subscription-based, digitally streaming channels (Acorn TV and Urban Movie Channel (UMC)), its e-commerce Websites and mail-order catalogs.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  RLJ Entertainment (RLJE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -0.9
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book 1.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -20.2
Price to Free Cash Flow -10.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -19.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -50%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 323.1%
Total Debt to Equity 323.1%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -15.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -18.1%
Return On Total Capital -37.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -38.8%
Return On Equity -338.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -229.6%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 32.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.9%
EBITDA Margin -17.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -22.2%
Operating Margin -8.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -20.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -22.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -29.1%
Net Profit Margin -27.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -32.8%
Effective Tax Rate -5.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

RLJE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the RLJE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $80 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by RLJ Entertainment. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of RLJ Entertainment. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our RLJE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 18.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for RLJE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of RLJ Entertainment, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of RLJ Entertainment.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of RLJE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 141.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for RLJE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for RLJ Entertainment.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for RLJ Entertainment. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the RLJE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for RLJE are equal to 11.3%.

Life of production assets of 5.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in RLJ Entertainment operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for RLJE is equal to -52.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $13 million for RLJ Entertainment - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 13.559 million for RLJ Entertainment is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of RLJ Entertainment at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ What's New on UMC - Urban Movie Channel: November 2017   [Nov-03-17 08:15AM  PR Newswire]
▶ RLJE Films Acquires BRAWL IN CELL BLOCK 99   [Aug-11-17 08:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ RLJ Entertainment To Accelerate Content Investments   [Jun-20-17 04:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ [$$] AMC Networks Sales Top Views   [Feb-23-17 08:52PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] AMC Networks Sales Top Views   [08:52PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] AMC Networks' Sales Top Views   [11:56AM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] AMC Networks Earnings Fall 10%   [Nov-03-16 11:55PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] AMC Networks' Earnings Fall 10%   [10:10AM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ AMC Networks could take over RLJ Entertainment   [Oct-17-16 05:45PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ [$$] RLJ Entertainment, AMC Networks to Team Up   [01:56PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Is AMC Gearing Up a Takeover of RLJ Entertainment?   [Aug-22-16 01:18PM  at 24/7 Wall St.]
▶ CFO Moves: Intrawest Resorts, RLJ Entertainment, Stellwagen Group   [May-18-16 07:50PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
Financial statements of RLJE
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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