Intrinsic value of RLJ Entertainment - RLJE

Previous Close

$3.87

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$3.87

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of RLJE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -19.19
  16.70
  15.53
  14.48
  13.53
  12.68
  11.91
  11.22
  10.60
  10.04
  9.53
  9.08
  8.67
  8.30
  7.97
  7.68
  7.41
  7.17
  6.95
  6.76
  6.58
  6.42
  6.28
  6.15
  6.04
  5.93
  5.84
  5.76
  5.68
  5.61
  5.55
Revenue, $m
  80
  93
  108
  123
  140
  158
  177
  197
  217
  239
  262
  286
  311
  336
  363
  391
  420
  450
  482
  514
  548
  583
  620
  658
  698
  739
  782
  827
  874
  923
  974
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  132
  152
  174
  197
  222
  248
  276
  305
  335
  367
  399
  433
  469
  507
  546
  586
  628
  672
  717
  765
  814
  865
  918
  973
  1,031
  1,091
  1,154
  1,220
  1,288
  1,360
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  87
  132
  152
  174
  197
  222
  248
  276
  305
  335
  367
  399
  433
  469
  507
  546
  586
  628
  672
  717
  765
  814
  865
  918
  973
  1,031
  1,091
  1,154
  1,220
  1,288
  1,360
Operating income, $m
  -7
  -38
  -44
  -50
  -57
  -64
  -71
  -79
  -87
  -96
  -105
  -113
  -123
  -133
  -144
  -155
  -166
  -178
  -190
  -203
  -217
  -231
  -245
  -260
  -276
  -292
  -309
  -327
  -346
  -365
  -385
EBITDA, $m
  -3
  -35
  -41
  -46
  -53
  -59
  -67
  -74
  -82
  -90
  -99
  -108
  -117
  -127
  -137
  -147
  -158
  -169
  -181
  -193
  -206
  -219
  -233
  -248
  -263
  -278
  -294
  -311
  -329
  -347
  -367
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  1
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  37
  39
  41
  44
Earnings before tax, $m
  -18
  -40
  -46
  -53
  -60
  -68
  -76
  -85
  -94
  -104
  -114
  -123
  -134
  -146
  -158
  -170
  -183
  -196
  -210
  -225
  -240
  -255
  -272
  -289
  -306
  -325
  -344
  -364
  -385
  -406
  -429
Tax expense, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -22
  -40
  -46
  -53
  -60
  -68
  -76
  -85
  -94
  -104
  -114
  -123
  -134
  -146
  -158
  -170
  -183
  -196
  -210
  -225
  -240
  -255
  -272
  -289
  -306
  -325
  -344
  -364
  -385
  -406
  -429

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  136
  149
  173
  198
  224
  253
  283
  315
  348
  383
  419
  457
  497
  538
  581
  626
  672
  720
  770
  822
  877
  933
  991
  1,052
  1,116
  1,182
  1,251
  1,323
  1,398
  1,477
  1,559
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  128
  149
  173
  198
  224
  253
  283
  315
  348
  383
  419
  457
  497
  538
  581
  626
  672
  720
  770
  822
  877
  933
  991
  1,052
  1,116
  1,182
  1,251
  1,323
  1,398
  1,477
  1,559
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.625
  0.624
  0.624
  0.621
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.624
  0.624
  0.625
  0.626
  0.626
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.626
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.626
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
  0.625
Average production assets, $m
  9
  11
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  25
  27
  30
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  51
  54
  58
  62
  66
  70
  74
  79
  83
  88
  93
  99
  104
  110
Working capital, $m
  -34
  -49
  -57
  -65
  -74
  -83
  -93
  -103
  -114
  -126
  -138
  -150
  -163
  -177
  -191
  -205
  -221
  -236
  -253
  -270
  -288
  -306
  -325
  -345
  -366
  -388
  -411
  -434
  -459
  -485
  -512
Total debt, $m
  42
  53
  74
  97
  121
  146
  174
  202
  232
  264
  296
  331
  366
  403
  442
  482
  524
  567
  612
  659
  708
  759
  811
  866
  923
  983
  1,045
  1,110
  1,178
  1,248
  1,322
Total liabilities, $m
  123
  134
  155
  178
  202
  227
  255
  283
  313
  345
  377
  412
  447
  484
  523
  563
  605
  648
  693
  740
  789
  840
  892
  947
  1,004
  1,064
  1,126
  1,191
  1,259
  1,329
  1,403
Total equity, $m
  13
  15
  17
  20
  22
  25
  28
  31
  35
  38
  42
  46
  50
  54
  58
  63
  67
  72
  77
  82
  88
  93
  99
  105
  112
  118
  125
  132
  140
  148
  156
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  136
  149
  172
  198
  224
  252
  283
  314
  348
  383
  419
  458
  497
  538
  581
  626
  672
  720
  770
  822
  877
  933
  991
  1,052
  1,116
  1,182
  1,251
  1,323
  1,399
  1,477
  1,559
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.231
  3.580
  4.310
  4.900
  5.390
  5.790
  6.140
  6.420
  6.670
  6.880
  7.070
  7.230
  7.370
  7.500
  7.610
  7.710
  7.790
  7.880
  7.950
  8.020
  8.080
  8.130
  8.180
  8.230
  8.270
  8.310
  8.350
  8.390
  8.420
  8.450
  8.480
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.039
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -22
  -40
  -46
  -53
  -60
  -68
  -76
  -85
  -94
  -104
  -114
  -123
  -134
  -146
  -158
  -170
  -183
  -196
  -210
  -225
  -240
  -255
  -272
  -289
  -306
  -325
  -344
  -364
  -385
  -406
  -429
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  4
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
Funds from operations, $m
  -36
  -37
  -42
  -49
  -56
  -64
  -72
  -80
  -89
  -98
  -108
  -118
  -128
  -139
  -151
  -163
  -175
  -188
  -201
  -215
  -229
  -244
  -260
  -276
  -293
  -310
  -329
  -348
  -368
  -389
  -410
Change in working capital, $m
  -35
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
Cash from operations, $m
  -1
  -30
  -35
  -41
  -47
  -54
  -62
  -70
  -78
  -87
  -96
  -105
  -115
  -126
  -137
  -148
  -160
  -172
  -185
  -198
  -212
  -226
  -241
  -256
  -272
  -289
  -306
  -324
  -343
  -363
  -383
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
Free cash flow, $m
  -2
  -33
  -38
  -45
  -52
  -59
  -67
  -75
  -84
  -93
  -103
  -113
  -124
  -135
  -146
  -158
  -171
  -183
  -197
  -211
  -225
  -240
  -256
  -272
  -289
  -307
  -325
  -344
  -364
  -385
  -407
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -58
  11
  21
  22
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  50
  48
  55
  63
  71
  79
  88
  98
  108
  118
  127
  138
  150
  162
  175
  188
  201
  215
  230
  245
  261
  277
  295
  313
  331
  351
  371
  392
  414
  437
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  6
  61
  69
  77
  87
  97
  106
  117
  128
  139
  151
  161
  174
  187
  201
  215
  230
  244
  260
  277
  294
  312
  330
  350
  370
  391
  413
  436
  460
  485
  511
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  3
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  71
  74
  77
  81
  84
  88
  91
  95
  100
  104
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -13
  -50
  -48
  -55
  -63
  -71
  -79
  -88
  -98
  -108
  -118
  -127
  -138
  -150
  -162
  -175
  -188
  -201
  -215
  -230
  -245
  -261
  -277
  -295
  -313
  -331
  -351
  -371
  -392
  -414
  -437
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -13
  -17
  -22
  -28
  -33
  -40
  -47
  -54
  -62
  -70
  -79
  -88
  -98
  -108
  -118
  -129
  -140
  -152
  -164
  -176
  -190
  -203
  -217
  -232
  -247
  -263
  -279
  -297
  -315
  -333
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -13
  -16
  -19
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -37
  -38
  -37
  -36
  -35
  -33
  -30
  -28
  -25
  -22
  -20
  -17
  -14
  -12
  -10
  -8
  -6
  -5
  -3
  -3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  29.8
  16.9
  9.6
  5.5
  3.1
  1.8
  1.0
  0.6
  0.3
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

RLJ Entertainment, Inc. (RLJE) is a global entertainment content distribution company. RLJE is a film and television licensee focusing on action, thriller and horror independent feature films. RLJE operates through three segments: Intellectual Property (IP) Licensing; Wholesale, and Direct-to-Consumer. The IP Licensing segment includes IP rights that the Company owns, produces and then exploits in various formats, including digital versatile disc, Blu-ray, digital, broadcast, video on demand, streaming video, downloading and sublicensing. The Wholesale segment exploits the content to third parties, such as Walmart, Best Buy, Target, Amazon and Costco, while the Direct-to-Consumer segment distributes directly to the consumer through different exploitation channels. The Direct-to-Consumer segment distributes film and television content through its subscription-based, digitally streaming channels (Acorn TV and Urban Movie Channel (UMC)), its e-commerce Websites and mail-order catalogs.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  RLJ Entertainment (RLJE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -0.9
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book 1.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -20.3
Price to Free Cash Flow -10.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -19.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -50%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 323.1%
Total Debt to Equity 323.1%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -15.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -18.1%
Return On Total Capital -37.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -38.8%
Return On Equity -338.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -229.6%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 32.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.9%
EBITDA Margin -17.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -22.2%
Operating Margin -8.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -20.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -22.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -29.1%
Net Profit Margin -27.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -32.8%
Effective Tax Rate -5.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

RLJE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the RLJE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $80 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by RLJ Entertainment. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of RLJ Entertainment. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our RLJE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 16.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for RLJE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of RLJ Entertainment, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of RLJ Entertainment.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of RLJE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 141.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for RLJE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for RLJ Entertainment.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for RLJ Entertainment. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the RLJE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for RLJE are equal to 11.3%.

Life of production assets of 5.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in RLJ Entertainment operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for RLJE is equal to -52.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $13 million for RLJ Entertainment - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 14.208 million for RLJ Entertainment is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of RLJ Entertainment at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ What's New on UMC - Urban Movie Channel: November 2017   [Nov-03-17 08:15AM  PR Newswire]
▶ RLJE Films Acquires BRAWL IN CELL BLOCK 99   [Aug-11-17 08:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ RLJ Entertainment To Accelerate Content Investments   [Jun-20-17 04:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ [$$] AMC Networks Sales Top Views   [Feb-23-17 08:52PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] AMC Networks Sales Top Views   [08:52PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] AMC Networks' Sales Top Views   [11:56AM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] AMC Networks Earnings Fall 10%   [Nov-03-16 11:55PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] AMC Networks' Earnings Fall 10%   [10:10AM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ AMC Networks could take over RLJ Entertainment   [Oct-17-16 05:45PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ [$$] RLJ Entertainment, AMC Networks to Team Up   [01:56PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Is AMC Gearing Up a Takeover of RLJ Entertainment?   [Aug-22-16 01:18PM  at 24/7 Wall St.]
▶ CFO Moves: Intrawest Resorts, RLJ Entertainment, Stellwagen Group   [May-18-16 07:50PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
Financial statements of RLJE
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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