Intrinsic value of Rambus - RMBS

Previous Close

$12.51

  Intrinsic Value

$12.44

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-1%

Previous close

$12.51

 
Intrinsic value

$12.44

 
Up/down potential

-1%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of RMBS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  13.85
  10.00
  9.50
  9.05
  8.64
  8.28
  7.95
  7.66
  7.39
  7.15
  6.94
  6.74
  6.57
  6.41
  6.27
  6.14
  6.03
  5.93
  5.83
  5.75
  5.68
  5.61
  5.55
  5.49
  5.44
  5.40
  5.36
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.24
Revenue, $m
  337
  371
  406
  443
  481
  521
  562
  605
  650
  696
  745
  795
  847
  901
  958
  1,017
  1,078
  1,142
  1,209
  1,278
  1,351
  1,427
  1,506
  1,588
  1,675
  1,765
  1,860
  1,959
  2,062
  2,171
  2,285
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  280
  304
  330
  357
  385
  414
  444
  475
  507
  541
  556
  592
  630
  670
  711
  754
  799
  845
  894
  944
  997
  1,053
  1,111
  1,171
  1,234
  1,300
  1,370
  1,442
  1,518
  1,597
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  303
  280
  304
  330
  357
  385
  414
  444
  475
  507
  541
  556
  592
  630
  670
  711
  754
  799
  845
  894
  944
  997
  1,053
  1,111
  1,171
  1,234
  1,300
  1,370
  1,442
  1,518
  1,597
Operating income, $m
  34
  91
  102
  113
  124
  136
  149
  162
  175
  189
  204
  239
  255
  271
  288
  306
  324
  344
  364
  385
  406
  429
  453
  478
  504
  531
  559
  589
  620
  653
  687
EBITDA, $m
  84
  136
  149
  162
  176
  191
  206
  222
  238
  255
  273
  291
  310
  330
  351
  372
  395
  418
  442
  468
  494
  522
  551
  581
  613
  646
  681
  717
  755
  795
  836
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
Earnings before tax, $m
  23
  85
  95
  105
  116
  127
  138
  150
  163
  176
  189
  224
  238
  253
  269
  285
  302
  320
  339
  358
  378
  399
  421
  444
  468
  493
  520
  547
  576
  606
  638
Tax expense, $m
  16
  23
  26
  28
  31
  34
  37
  41
  44
  47
  51
  60
  64
  68
  73
  77
  82
  86
  91
  97
  102
  108
  114
  120
  126
  133
  140
  148
  155
  164
  172
Net income, $m
  7
  62
  69
  77
  85
  93
  101
  110
  119
  128
  138
  163
  174
  185
  196
  208
  221
  234
  247
  261
  276
  291
  307
  324
  342
  360
  379
  399
  420
  442
  465

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  172
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  784
  673
  737
  803
  873
  945
  1,020
  1,098
  1,180
  1,264
  1,352
  1,443
  1,538
  1,636
  1,739
  1,846
  1,957
  2,073
  2,194
  2,320
  2,451
  2,589
  2,733
  2,883
  3,040
  3,204
  3,375
  3,555
  3,743
  3,940
  4,146
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  612
  673
  737
  803
  873
  945
  1,020
  1,098
  1,180
  1,264
  1,352
  1,443
  1,538
  1,636
  1,739
  1,846
  1,957
  2,073
  2,194
  2,320
  2,451
  2,589
  2,733
  2,883
  3,040
  3,204
  3,375
  3,555
  3,743
  3,940
  4,146
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.552
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
  0.551
Average production assets, $m
  128
  140
  153
  167
  182
  197
  212
  229
  246
  263
  282
  300
  320
  341
  362
  384
  408
  432
  457
  483
  511
  539
  569
  600
  633
  667
  703
  740
  780
  821
  864
Working capital, $m
  166
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
Total debt, $m
  164
  187
  211
  236
  262
  289
  318
  347
  378
  409
  443
  477
  513
  550
  588
  629
  671
  714
  760
  808
  857
  909
  963
  1,020
  1,079
  1,141
  1,206
  1,273
  1,344
  1,418
  1,496
Total liabilities, $m
  231
  254
  278
  303
  329
  356
  385
  414
  445
  476
  510
  544
  580
  617
  655
  696
  738
  781
  827
  875
  924
  976
  1,030
  1,087
  1,146
  1,208
  1,273
  1,340
  1,411
  1,485
  1,563
Total equity, $m
  553
  419
  459
  500
  544
  589
  636
  684
  735
  787
  842
  899
  958
  1,019
  1,083
  1,150
  1,219
  1,291
  1,367
  1,445
  1,527
  1,613
  1,702
  1,796
  1,894
  1,996
  2,103
  2,215
  2,332
  2,455
  2,583
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  784
  673
  737
  803
  873
  945
  1,021
  1,098
  1,180
  1,263
  1,352
  1,443
  1,538
  1,636
  1,738
  1,846
  1,957
  2,072
  2,194
  2,320
  2,451
  2,589
  2,732
  2,883
  3,040
  3,204
  3,376
  3,555
  3,743
  3,940
  4,146
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.297
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.500
  0.510
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
  0.530
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.570
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623
  0.623

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  7
  62
  69
  77
  85
  93
  101
  110
  119
  128
  138
  163
  174
  185
  196
  208
  221
  234
  247
  261
  276
  291
  307
  324
  342
  360
  379
  399
  420
  442
  465
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  50
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  52
  55
  59
  62
  66
  70
  74
  79
  83
  88
  93
  98
  104
  109
  115
  121
  128
  134
  141
  149
Funds from operations, $m
  99
  107
  116
  126
  136
  147
  158
  170
  182
  194
  207
  215
  229
  244
  259
  275
  291
  308
  326
  345
  364
  384
  406
  428
  451
  475
  500
  527
  555
  584
  614
Change in working capital, $m
  6
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Cash from operations, $m
  93
  108
  117
  127
  137
  148
  159
  171
  183
  195
  208
  216
  230
  245
  260
  276
  292
  309
  327
  346
  365
  386
  407
  429
  452
  477
  502
  529
  557
  586
  616
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -104
  -109
  -115
  -121
  -128
  -134
  -141
New CAPEX, $m
  -9
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -105
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -105
  -110
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -137
  -143
  -151
  -158
  -167
  -175
  -184
Free cash flow, $m
  -12
  73
  80
  87
  94
  101
  109
  118
  126
  135
  144
  148
  158
  169
  180
  191
  203
  215
  228
  241
  255
  269
  284
  300
  316
  333
  351
  370
  390
  410
  432
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -1
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  15
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  6
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -8
  96
  104
  112
  120
  129
  138
  147
  157
  167
  177
  183
  194
  206
  218
  231
  245
  259
  273
  288
  304
  321
  338
  356
  375
  395
  416
  438
  461
  485
  510
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -26
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -89
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -129
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  172
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  229
  64
  70
  77
  84
  91
  98
  106
  114
  123
  126
  135
  145
  154
  165
  175
  186
  198
  210
  222
  235
  249
  263
  278
  293
  309
  326
  344
  362
  381
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  220
  58
  61
  63
  65
  66
  66
  66
  66
  64
  60
  58
  55
  52
  48
  45
  41
  36
  32
  28
  24
  21
  17
  14
  11
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Rambus Inc. (Rambus) produces hardware and software technologies. The Company's segments include Memory and Interface Division (MID), which focuses the design, development, manufacturing through partnerships and licensing of technology and solutions that is related to memory and interfaces; Rambus Security Division (RSD), which focuses on the design, development and licensing of technologies for chip and system security, anti-counterfeiting, smart ticketing and mobile payments; Emerging Solutions Division (ESD), which encompasses its long-term research and development efforts in the area of emerging technologies, and Rambus Lighting Division (RLD), which focuses on the design, development and licensing of technologies for lighting. The Company collaborates with application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) and System-on-Chip (SoC) designers, foundries, Internet protocol (IP) developers, processor companies, electronic design automation (EDA) companies and validation laboratories.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Rambus (RMBS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 198.5
Price to Sales 4.1
Price to Book 2.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 14.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 16.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 13.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 50%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -2.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 29.7%
Total Debt to Equity 29.7%
Interest Coverage 13
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 13%
Return On Total Capital 1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.2%
Return On Equity 1.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.1%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 80.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 83.6%
EBITDA Margin 22.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.5%
Operating Margin 10.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.6%
Net Profit Margin 2.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.4%
Effective Tax Rate 69.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -44.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

RMBS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the RMBS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $337 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Rambus. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Rambus. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our RMBS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for RMBS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Rambus, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Rambus.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of RMBS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 76%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for RMBS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Rambus.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Rambus. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the RMBS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for RMBS are equal to 37.8%.

Life of production assets of 5.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Rambus operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for RMBS is equal to -1.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $553 million for Rambus - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 110.408 million for Rambus is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Rambus at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Rambus, Inc. Books a Ton of Accounting Changes   [Jan-30-18 06:21PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Rambus reports 4Q loss   [Jan-29-18 04:49PM  Associated Press]
▶ Rambus tumbles on weak Q1 guidance   [04:38PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ A Preview Of Rambus' Q4 Earnings   [12:22PM  Benzinga]
▶ Rambus and Marvell Sign Patent License Agreement   [Jan-25-18 09:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Rambus, Inc. : December 27, 2017   [Dec-27-17 11:44AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Rambus Renews Patent License Agreement with Panasonic   [Dec-20-17 08:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ Rambus Teams with eftpos for Android Pay in Australia   [Nov-13-17 06:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ Rambus shares wobble after hours following earnings beat   [Oct-23-17 04:39PM  MarketWatch]
▶ Rambus beats Street 3Q forecasts   [04:15PM  Associated Press]
▶ Rambus, eftpos Team Up in Australia to Support Apple Pay   [Oct-17-17 07:42PM  Business Wire]
▶ Rambus to Announce Third Quarter 2017 Results   [Oct-09-17 04:06PM  Business Wire]
▶ Rambus to Host Financial Analyst Day   [Sep-07-17 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ Rambus to Present at Two Investor Conferences in September   [Aug-23-17 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Rambus, Inc. : August 15, 2017   [Aug-15-17 04:58PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Rambus beats Street 2Q forecasts   [Jul-24-17 09:30PM  Associated Press]
▶ Rambus Rising on Q2 Beat, Higher Q3 View   [05:27PM  Barrons.com]
▶ Rambus to Announce Second Quarter 2017 Results   [Jul-11-17 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ Rambus Appoints Emiko Higashi to Its Board of Directors   [Jun-05-17 04:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ Rambus to Present at Two Investor Conferences in June   [Jun-01-17 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ Rambus and Cybertrust Partner to Secure Connected Devices   [May-18-17 04:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ Rambus Joins Microsemis SoC Partner Program   [May-10-17 04:30PM  Business Wire]
Financial statements of RMBS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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