Intrinsic value of RingCentral Cl A - RNG

Previous Close

$42.75

  Intrinsic Value

$7.89

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-82%

  Value-price divergence*

-138%

Previous close

$42.75

 
Intrinsic value

$7.89

 
Up/down potential

-82%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-138%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of RNG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  28.38
  29.30
  26.87
  24.68
  22.71
  20.94
  19.35
  17.91
  16.62
  15.46
  14.41
  13.47
  12.63
  11.86
  11.18
  10.56
  10.00
  9.50
  9.05
  8.65
  8.28
  7.95
  7.66
  7.39
  7.15
  6.94
  6.74
  6.57
  6.41
  6.27
  6.14
Revenue, $m
  380
  491
  623
  777
  954
  1,154
  1,377
  1,623
  1,893
  2,186
  2,501
  2,838
  3,196
  3,575
  3,975
  4,395
  4,834
  5,294
  5,773
  6,272
  6,792
  7,332
  7,893
  8,477
  9,083
  9,714
  10,369
  11,050
  11,759
  12,496
  13,264
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  461
  585
  729
  894
  1,081
  1,290
  1,521
  1,774
  2,048
  2,343
  2,658
  2,994
  3,349
  3,723
  4,116
  4,528
  4,958
  5,407
  5,875
  6,361
  6,867
  7,393
  7,940
  8,508
  9,098
  9,712
  10,350
  11,013
  11,704
  12,423
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  51
  53
  54
  55
  57
  58
  59
  61
  62
  64
  66
  67
  69
  71
  72
  74
  76
  78
  80
  82
  84
  86
  88
  90
  93
  95
  97
  100
  102
  105
Total operating expenses, $m
  406
  512
  638
  783
  949
  1,138
  1,348
  1,580
  1,835
  2,110
  2,407
  2,724
  3,061
  3,418
  3,794
  4,188
  4,602
  5,034
  5,485
  5,955
  6,443
  6,951
  7,479
  8,028
  8,598
  9,191
  9,807
  10,447
  11,113
  11,806
  12,528
Operating income, $m
  -26
  -21
  -14
  -5
  4
  16
  28
  43
  58
  75
  94
  114
  135
  158
  181
  206
  232
  259
  288
  318
  348
  381
  414
  449
  485
  523
  562
  603
  645
  690
  736
EBITDA, $m
  -11
  -12
  -2
  9
  22
  36
  53
  71
  92
  114
  137
  163
  190
  219
  250
  282
  315
  350
  387
  425
  465
  507
  550
  595
  641
  690
  740
  793
  848
  904
  964
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  0
  0
  2
  4
  6
  9
  12
  15
  18
  22
  26
  31
  35
  40
  45
  51
  56
  62
  69
  75
  82
  89
  96
  104
  112
  120
  128
  137
  146
  156
Earnings before tax, $m
  -29
  -21
  -14
  -7
  1
  10
  20
  31
  43
  57
  72
  88
  105
  122
  141
  161
  181
  203
  225
  249
  273
  299
  325
  353
  381
  411
  442
  474
  508
  543
  580
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  3
  5
  8
  12
  15
  19
  24
  28
  33
  38
  43
  49
  55
  61
  67
  74
  81
  88
  95
  103
  111
  119
  128
  137
  147
  156
Net income, $m
  -29
  -21
  -14
  -7
  0
  7
  14
  23
  32
  42
  52
  64
  76
  89
  103
  117
  132
  148
  165
  182
  200
  218
  237
  257
  278
  300
  323
  346
  371
  396
  423

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  160
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  253
  120
  153
  190
  233
  282
  337
  397
  463
  535
  612
  695
  782
  875
  973
  1,076
  1,183
  1,296
  1,413
  1,535
  1,662
  1,794
  1,932
  2,075
  2,223
  2,377
  2,538
  2,704
  2,878
  3,058
  3,246
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  93
  120
  153
  190
  233
  282
  337
  397
  463
  535
  612
  695
  782
  875
  973
  1,076
  1,183
  1,296
  1,413
  1,535
  1,662
  1,794
  1,932
  2,075
  2,223
  2,377
  2,538
  2,704
  2,878
  3,058
  3,246
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  4.086
  4.092
  4.072
  4.089
  4.094
  4.092
  4.086
  4.088
  4.089
  4.086
  4.087
  4.083
  4.087
  4.086
  4.085
  4.085
  4.086
  4.085
  4.086
  4.086
  4.087
  4.087
  4.085
  4.085
  4.086
  4.087
  4.086
  4.087
  4.086
  4.086
  4.086
Average production assets, $m
  33
  42
  54
  67
  82
  99
  118
  140
  163
  188
  215
  244
  275
  307
  342
  378
  416
  455
  496
  539
  584
  631
  679
  729
  781
  835
  892
  950
  1,011
  1,075
  1,141
Working capital, $m
  90
  -71
  -90
  -113
  -138
  -167
  -200
  -235
  -275
  -317
  -363
  -411
  -463
  -518
  -576
  -637
  -701
  -768
  -837
  -909
  -985
  -1,063
  -1,145
  -1,229
  -1,317
  -1,408
  -1,503
  -1,602
  -1,705
  -1,812
  -1,923
Total debt, $m
  15
  0
  29
  63
  102
  146
  195
  250
  309
  373
  443
  517
  596
  680
  768
  860
  957
  1,058
  1,164
  1,274
  1,388
  1,507
  1,631
  1,759
  1,893
  2,032
  2,176
  2,326
  2,482
  2,644
  2,814
Total liabilities, $m
  123
  108
  137
  171
  210
  254
  303
  358
  417
  481
  551
  625
  704
  788
  876
  968
  1,065
  1,166
  1,272
  1,382
  1,496
  1,615
  1,739
  1,867
  2,001
  2,140
  2,284
  2,434
  2,590
  2,752
  2,922
Total equity, $m
  130
  12
  15
  19
  23
  28
  34
  40
  46
  53
  61
  69
  78
  88
  97
  108
  118
  130
  141
  154
  166
  179
  193
  207
  222
  238
  254
  270
  288
  306
  325
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  253
  120
  152
  190
  233
  282
  337
  398
  463
  534
  612
  694
  782
  876
  973
  1,076
  1,183
  1,296
  1,413
  1,536
  1,662
  1,794
  1,932
  2,074
  2,223
  2,378
  2,538
  2,704
  2,878
  3,058
  3,247
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.115
  0.020
  1.920
  3.320
  4.370
  5.170
  5.790
  6.280
  6.670
  6.980
  7.240
  7.450
  7.620
  7.770
  7.890
  8.000
  8.090
  8.170
  8.240
  8.300
  8.350
  8.400
  8.440
  8.480
  8.510
  8.550
  8.570
  8.600
  8.620
  8.650
  8.670
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.323
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -29
  -21
  -14
  -7
  0
  7
  14
  23
  32
  42
  52
  64
  76
  89
  103
  117
  132
  148
  165
  182
  200
  218
  237
  257
  278
  300
  323
  346
  371
  396
  423
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  15
  9
  12
  14
  17
  21
  25
  29
  33
  38
  44
  49
  55
  61
  68
  76
  83
  91
  99
  108
  117
  126
  136
  146
  156
  167
  178
  190
  202
  215
  228
Funds from operations, $m
  40
  -12
  -2
  7
  18
  28
  39
  51
  65
  80
  96
  113
  131
  151
  171
  193
  216
  239
  264
  290
  316
  344
  373
  403
  435
  467
  501
  536
  573
  611
  651
Change in working capital, $m
  10
  -16
  -19
  -22
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -111
Cash from operations, $m
  30
  4
  17
  29
  43
  57
  71
  87
  104
  123
  142
  162
  183
  206
  229
  254
  279
  306
  333
  362
  392
  423
  455
  488
  523
  559
  596
  635
  676
  718
  763
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -7
  -8
  -11
  -13
  -16
  -20
  -24
  -28
  -33
  -38
  -43
  -49
  -55
  -61
  -68
  -76
  -83
  -91
  -99
  -108
  -117
  -126
  -136
  -146
  -156
  -167
  -178
  -190
  -202
  -215
New CAPEX, $m
  -16
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -66
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -24
  -28
  -33
  -39
  -45
  -51
  -58
  -65
  -72
  -80
  -88
  -95
  -104
  -114
  -123
  -132
  -142
  -153
  -163
  -174
  -186
  -198
  -210
  -223
  -237
  -251
  -265
  -281
Free cash flow, $m
  14
  -12
  -3
  5
  15
  23
  32
  42
  53
  65
  77
  90
  104
  118
  133
  149
  166
  183
  201
  220
  239
  259
  280
  302
  325
  348
  373
  398
  425
  453
  482
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -6
  0
  29
  34
  39
  44
  49
  54
  59
  64
  69
  74
  79
  84
  88
  92
  97
  101
  106
  110
  114
  119
  124
  129
  134
  139
  144
  150
  156
  162
  169
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  15
  48
  17
  11
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  9
  48
  46
  45
  43
  44
  49
  54
  59
  64
  69
  74
  79
  84
  88
  92
  97
  101
  106
  110
  114
  119
  124
  129
  134
  139
  144
  150
  156
  162
  169
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  23
  36
  43
  50
  58
  67
  81
  97
  113
  129
  147
  164
  183
  202
  222
  242
  263
  284
  307
  330
  354
  378
  404
  430
  458
  487
  517
  548
  581
  615
  651
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -20
  -48
  -17
  -11
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  145
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  133
  26
  39
  53
  62
  76
  91
  106
  122
  139
  156
  174
  193
  212
  232
  252
  273
  295
  317
  341
  365
  390
  416
  443
  472
  501
  532
  564
  597
  632
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  128
  24
  34
  44
  48
  55
  61
  66
  70
  73
  74
  74
  73
  71
  68
  64
  59
  54
  49
  43
  38
  32
  27
  23
  18
  15
  11
  9
  7
  5
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  43.8
  40.8
  40.0
  40.0
  40.0
  40.0
  40.0
  40.0
  40.0
  40.0
  40.0
  40.0
  40.0
  40.0
  40.0
  40.0
  40.0
  40.0
  40.0
  40.0
  40.0
  40.0
  40.0
  40.0
  40.0
  40.0
  40.0
  40.0
  40.0

RingCentral, Inc. is a provider of software-as-a-service (SaaS) solutions for businesses to support modern communications. The Company's cloud-based business communications solutions provide a single user identity across multiple locations and devices, including smartphones, tablets, personal computers (PCs) and desk phones, and allow for communication across multiple channels, including high definition (HD) voice, video, short messaging service (SMS), messaging and collaboration, conferencing, online meetings, and fax. The Company's products include RingCentral Office, RingCentral Professional, RingCentral Fax, RingCentral Contact Center and RingCentral Glip. RingCentral Office is a multi-user, enterprise-grade communications solution. RingCentral Professional is an inbound call routing subscription with additional text and fax capabilities targeting smaller deployments, and RingCentral Fax is an Internet fax subscription that permits sending and receiving faxes over the Internet.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  RingCentral Cl A (RNG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -109.6
Price to Sales 8.4
Price to Book 24.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 106
Price to Free Cash Flow 227.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 28.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -5.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 7.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 11
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 11.5%
Interest Coverage -28
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -12%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -18.4%
Return On Total Capital -21.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -29.9%
Return On Equity -24.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -38.2%
Asset Turnover 1.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 75.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 70.5%
EBITDA Margin -3.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -8.8%
Operating Margin -6.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -12.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -7.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -13.5%
Net Profit Margin -7.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -13.4%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 1%
Payout Ratio 0%

RNG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the RNG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $380 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by RingCentral Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of RingCentral Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our RNG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 29.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for RNG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of RingCentral Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of RingCentral Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of RNG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 93.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $50 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for RNG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.9% for RingCentral Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for RingCentral Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the RNG stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for RNG are equal to 8.6%.

Life of production assets of 2.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in RingCentral Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for RNG is equal to -14.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $130 million for RingCentral Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 74.24 million for RingCentral Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of RingCentral Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ Why RingCentral Inc. Stock Jumped Today   [Aug-09-17 12:29PM  Motley Fool]
▶ RingCentral reports 2Q loss   [Aug-02-17 11:17PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to RingCentral, Inc. : August 1, 2017   [Aug-01-17 05:14PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to RingCentral, Inc. : July 7, 2017   [Jul-07-17 03:26PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to RingCentral, Inc. : June 26, 2017   [Jun-26-17 04:47PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Stocks To Buy And Watch: Top IPOs, Big And Small Caps, Growth Stocks   [Jun-16-17 05:23PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Kenneth Goldman Joins RingCentral Board of Directors   [Jun-13-17 11:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ RingCentral to Speak at Upcoming Investor Conferences   [Jun-05-17 09:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ RingCentral reports 1Q loss   [Apr-25-17 04:44PM  Associated Press]
▶ RingCentral An Earns Composite Rating Upgrade   [Apr-21-17 11:22AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ RingCentral Unveils Next-Generation RingCentral Office┬«   [Mar-23-17 09:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ RingCentral Announces New European Offering   [09:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ RingCentral CEO Shmunis Sees Growth Re-Accelerating   [Feb-13-17 08:24PM  at Barrons.com]
Financial statements of RNG
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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