Intrinsic value of RealNetworks - RNWK

Previous Close

$4.77

  Intrinsic Value

$0.51

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-89%

Previous close

$4.77

 
Intrinsic value

$0.51

 
Up/down potential

-89%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of RNWK stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -4.00
  10.00
  9.50
  9.05
  8.64
  8.28
  7.95
  7.66
  7.39
  7.15
  6.94
  6.74
  6.57
  6.41
  6.27
  6.14
  6.03
  5.93
  5.83
  5.75
  5.68
  5.61
  5.55
  5.49
  5.44
  5.40
  5.36
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.24
Revenue, $m
  120
  132
  145
  158
  171
  185
  200
  216
  231
  248
  265
  283
  302
  321
  341
  362
  384
  407
  430
  455
  481
  508
  536
  566
  596
  629
  662
  698
  734
  773
  814
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  204
  224
  244
  265
  287
  309
  333
  358
  383
  409
  436
  464
  494
  525
  557
  591
  626
  662
  701
  740
  782
  825
  871
  918
  967
  1,019
  1,074
  1,130
  1,190
  1,252
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  158
  204
  224
  244
  265
  287
  309
  333
  358
  383
  409
  436
  464
  494
  525
  557
  591
  626
  662
  701
  740
  782
  825
  871
  918
  967
  1,019
  1,074
  1,130
  1,190
  1,252
Operating income, $m
  -37
  -72
  -79
  -86
  -94
  -101
  -109
  -117
  -126
  -135
  -144
  -153
  -163
  -173
  -184
  -195
  -207
  -219
  -232
  -245
  -259
  -274
  -289
  -305
  -322
  -339
  -357
  -376
  -396
  -417
  -439
EBITDA, $m
  -30
  -69
  -76
  -83
  -90
  -97
  -105
  -113
  -121
  -130
  -139
  -148
  -158
  -168
  -179
  -190
  -201
  -213
  -226
  -239
  -252
  -266
  -281
  -296
  -313
  -329
  -347
  -366
  -385
  -405
  -426
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
Earnings before tax, $m
  -35
  -73
  -79
  -87
  -94
  -102
  -110
  -118
  -127
  -136
  -146
  -154
  -165
  -175
  -186
  -198
  -210
  -222
  -235
  -249
  -263
  -278
  -294
  -310
  -327
  -344
  -363
  -382
  -403
  -424
  -446
Tax expense, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -37
  -73
  -79
  -87
  -94
  -102
  -110
  -118
  -127
  -136
  -146
  -154
  -165
  -175
  -186
  -198
  -210
  -222
  -235
  -249
  -263
  -278
  -294
  -310
  -327
  -344
  -363
  -382
  -403
  -424
  -446

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  77
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  130
  58
  64
  70
  76
  82
  88
  95
  102
  110
  117
  125
  133
  142
  151
  160
  170
  180
  190
  201
  212
  224
  237
  250
  263
  278
  293
  308
  324
  341
  359
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  53
  58
  64
  70
  76
  82
  88
  95
  102
  110
  117
  125
  133
  142
  151
  160
  170
  180
  190
  201
  212
  224
  237
  250
  263
  278
  293
  308
  324
  341
  359
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.264
  2.276
  2.266
  2.257
  2.250
  2.256
  2.273
  2.274
  2.265
  2.255
  2.265
  2.264
  2.271
  2.261
  2.258
  2.263
  2.259
  2.261
  2.263
  2.264
  2.269
  2.268
  2.262
  2.264
  2.266
  2.263
  2.259
  2.266
  2.265
  2.267
  2.267
Average production assets, $m
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
Working capital, $m
  66
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
Total debt, $m
  4
  6
  10
  14
  19
  23
  28
  33
  38
  44
  49
  55
  61
  67
  74
  81
  88
  95
  103
  111
  119
  128
  137
  147
  157
  167
  178
  190
  202
  214
  227
Total liabilities, $m
  42
  43
  47
  51
  56
  60
  65
  70
  75
  81
  86
  92
  98
  104
  111
  118
  125
  132
  140
  148
  156
  165
  174
  184
  194
  204
  215
  227
  239
  251
  264
Total equity, $m
  89
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  63
  66
  70
  73
  77
  81
  86
  90
  95
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  131
  58
  64
  69
  76
  82
  88
  95
  102
  110
  117
  125
  133
  141
  151
  160
  170
  179
  190
  201
  212
  224
  237
  250
  264
  277
  292
  308
  325
  341
  359
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.045
  0.380
  0.590
  0.770
  0.930
  1.080
  1.200
  1.320
  1.420
  1.510
  1.590
  1.670
  1.740
  1.800
  1.860
  1.910
  1.960
  2.010
  2.050
  2.090
  2.130
  2.160
  2.200
  2.230
  2.260
  2.280
  2.310
  2.330
  2.360
  2.380
  2.400
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.264
  0.264
  0.264
  0.264
  0.264
  0.264
  0.264
  0.264
  0.264
  0.264
  0.264
  0.264
  0.264
  0.264
  0.264
  0.264
  0.264
  0.264
  0.264
  0.264
  0.264
  0.264
  0.264
  0.264
  0.264
  0.264
  0.264
  0.264
  0.264
  0.264
  0.264

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -37
  -73
  -79
  -87
  -94
  -102
  -110
  -118
  -127
  -136
  -146
  -154
  -165
  -175
  -186
  -198
  -210
  -222
  -235
  -249
  -263
  -278
  -294
  -310
  -327
  -344
  -363
  -382
  -403
  -424
  -446
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  7
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
Funds from operations, $m
  -25
  -69
  -76
  -83
  -90
  -98
  -106
  -114
  -122
  -131
  -141
  -150
  -160
  -170
  -181
  -192
  -204
  -216
  -229
  -242
  -256
  -270
  -286
  -301
  -318
  -335
  -353
  -372
  -392
  -412
  -434
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
Cash from operations, $m
  -24
  -68
  -75
  -82
  -89
  -97
  -105
  -113
  -121
  -130
  -139
  -149
  -159
  -169
  -180
  -191
  -202
  -215
  -227
  -240
  -254
  -268
  -283
  -299
  -315
  -333
  -350
  -369
  -389
  -409
  -431
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
Cash from investing activities, $m
  12
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
Free cash flow, $m
  -12
  -71
  -78
  -85
  -93
  -100
  -109
  -117
  -126
  -135
  -144
  -154
  -164
  -175
  -186
  -198
  -209
  -222
  -235
  -249
  -263
  -278
  -293
  -309
  -326
  -344
  -362
  -382
  -402
  -423
  -446
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  74
  81
  88
  96
  104
  112
  120
  129
  138
  148
  156
  167
  177
  189
  200
  212
  225
  238
  252
  266
  281
  297
  313
  330
  348
  367
  386
  407
  428
  451
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  78
  85
  92
  100
  109
  117
  125
  134
  143
  154
  162
  173
  183
  196
  207
  219
  232
  246
  260
  274
  290
  306
  323
  340
  358
  378
  397
  419
  441
  464
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -14
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  32
  -74
  -81
  -88
  -96
  -104
  -112
  -120
  -129
  -138
  -148
  -156
  -167
  -177
  -189
  -200
  -212
  -225
  -238
  -252
  -266
  -281
  -297
  -313
  -330
  -348
  -367
  -386
  -407
  -428
  -451
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  75
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  8
  -74
  -81
  -88
  -96
  -104
  -112
  -121
  -129
  -139
  -148
  -158
  -169
  -179
  -191
  -202
  -215
  -227
  -241
  -254
  -269
  -284
  -300
  -316
  -333
  -351
  -370
  -390
  -411
  -432
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  8
  -68
  -70
  -73
  -74
  -75
  -76
  -75
  -74
  -73
  -70
  -68
  -64
  -60
  -56
  -51
  -47
  -42
  -37
  -32
  -28
  -24
  -20
  -16
  -13
  -10
  -8
  -6
  -4
  -3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  27.4
  7.5
  2.1
  0.6
  0.2
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

RealNetworks, Inc. creates applications and services that enable to connect with digital media. The Company connects consumers with their digital media directly and through partners, focusing on supporting various network, devices, media types and social networks. It operates through three segments: Consumer Media, Mobile Services and Games. Within its Consumer Media business, its RealPlayer media player software includes features and services that enable consumers to discover, play, download, manage and edit digital video, stream audio and video, download and save photos and videos from the Web, transfer and share content on social networks, and edit their own photo and video content. The Mobile Services segment consists of digital media services it provides to mobile and online service providers as software as a service offerings. It develops, publishes, licenses and distributes casual games.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  RealNetworks (RNWK)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -4.8
Price to Sales 1.5
Price to Book 2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -7.5
Price to Free Cash Flow -6.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 100%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -24.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 39
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 2.2%
Total Debt to Equity 4.5%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -25.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -29.9%
Return On Total Capital -34.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -38.8%
Return On Equity -35.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -39.2%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 46.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 47.3%
EBITDA Margin -23.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -39.9%
Operating Margin -31.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -43.7%
Pre-Tax Margin -29.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -47%
Net Profit Margin -30.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -47.5%
Effective Tax Rate -5.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -2%
Payout Ratio 0%

RNWK stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the RNWK stock intrinsic value calculation we used $120 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by RealNetworks. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of RealNetworks. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our RNWK stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for RNWK is calculated based on our internal credit rating of RealNetworks, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of RealNetworks.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of RNWK stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 155%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for RNWK stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for RealNetworks.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for RealNetworks. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the RNWK stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for RNWK are equal to 7.5%.

Life of production assets of 3.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in RealNetworks operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for RNWK is equal to -7.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $89 million for RealNetworks - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 37.202 million for RealNetworks is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of RealNetworks at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ RealNetworks Announces Second Quarter 2017 Results   [Aug-03-17 04:01PM  PR Newswire]
▶ RealNetworks to Release 2nd Quarter Results August 3   [Jul-13-17 04:01PM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to RealNetworks, Inc. : May 9, 2017   [May-09-17 05:00PM  Capital Cube]
▶ RealNetworks reports 1Q loss   [May-03-17 05:01PM  Associated Press]
▶ RealNetworks Names Cary Baker as Chief Financial Officer   [Apr-27-17 04:01PM  PR Newswire]
▶ RealNetworks to Release 1st Quarter Results May 3   [Apr-12-17 04:01PM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to RealNetworks, Inc. : April 5, 2017   [Apr-05-17 05:23PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Allen Institute hires RealNetworks CFO Marjorie Thomas   [Mar-14-17 03:49PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Allen Institute hires RealNetworks CFO Marjorie Thomas   [03:49PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ RealNetworks reports 4Q loss   [05:22PM  Associated Press]
▶ RealNetworks Expands into Latin America with Vivo   [Nov-01-16 06:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ RealNetworks to Release 3rd Quarter Results November 3   [Oct-13-16 01:01PM  PR Newswire]
▶ RealNetworks to Release 2nd Quarter Results August 3   [Jul-13-16 04:01PM  PR Newswire]
▶ RealNetworks Appoints Chris Jones to Board of Directors   [Jul-12-16 08:59AM  PR Newswire]
▶ RealNetworks to Release 1st Quarter Results May 5   [Apr-14-16 04:01PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Is RealNetworks Inc (RNWK) Going to Burn These Hedge Funds?   [Dec-10  03:33PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Do Hedge Funds Love Harmony Merger Corp (HRMN)?   [Nov-25  02:06AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ RealNetworks Releases RealTimes Stories(TM) SDK   [Nov-12  09:00AM  PR Newswire]
Financial statements of RNWK
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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