Intrinsic value of Rogers - ROG

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$85.46

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$85.46

 
Intrinsic value

$209.05

 
Up/down potential

+145%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ROG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.34
  13.10
  12.29
  11.56
  10.90
  10.31
  9.78
  9.30
  8.87
  8.49
  8.14
  7.82
  7.54
  7.29
  7.06
  6.85
  6.67
  6.50
  6.35
  6.22
  6.09
  5.98
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
Revenue, $m
  656
  742
  833
  929
  1,031
  1,137
  1,248
  1,365
  1,486
  1,612
  1,743
  1,879
  2,021
  2,168
  2,321
  2,480
  2,646
  2,818
  2,997
  3,183
  3,377
  3,579
  3,790
  4,009
  4,239
  4,478
  4,728
  4,989
  5,262
  5,547
  5,846
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  343
  383
  424
  468
  515
  563
  613
  666
  721
  778
  816
  878
  942
  1,008
  1,077
  1,149
  1,224
  1,301
  1,382
  1,467
  1,554
  1,646
  1,741
  1,841
  1,945
  2,053
  2,167
  2,285
  2,409
  2,539
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  280
  287
  294
  301
  309
  317
  325
  333
  341
  349
  358
  367
  376
  386
  395
  405
  415
  426
  436
  447
  459
  470
  482
  494
  506
  519
  532
  545
  559
  573
Total operating expenses, $m
  572
  623
  670
  718
  769
  824
  880
  938
  999
  1,062
  1,127
  1,174
  1,245
  1,318
  1,394
  1,472
  1,554
  1,639
  1,727
  1,818
  1,914
  2,013
  2,116
  2,223
  2,335
  2,451
  2,572
  2,699
  2,830
  2,968
  3,112
Operating income, $m
  84
  119
  164
  211
  261
  314
  369
  427
  487
  550
  616
  705
  776
  850
  927
  1,008
  1,091
  1,179
  1,269
  1,364
  1,463
  1,566
  1,674
  1,786
  1,904
  2,027
  2,156
  2,291
  2,432
  2,580
  2,734
EBITDA, $m
  122
  166
  213
  264
  317
  374
  433
  495
  559
  627
  697
  770
  846
  925
  1,008
  1,094
  1,183
  1,276
  1,373
  1,474
  1,580
  1,690
  1,805
  1,925
  2,051
  2,182
  2,320
  2,463
  2,614
  2,772
  2,937
Interest expense (income), $m
  3
  8
  10
  12
  15
  17
  19
  22
  24
  27
  30
  33
  36
  39
  42
  46
  49
  53
  57
  61
  65
  69
  73
  78
  83
  88
  94
  99
  105
  111
  117
Earnings before tax, $m
  82
  111
  153
  199
  246
  297
  350
  405
  463
  523
  586
  672
  740
  811
  885
  962
  1,042
  1,126
  1,213
  1,304
  1,398
  1,497
  1,600
  1,708
  1,821
  1,939
  2,062
  2,192
  2,327
  2,469
  2,617
Tax expense, $m
  34
  30
  41
  54
  67
  80
  94
  109
  125
  141
  158
  182
  200
  219
  239
  260
  281
  304
  327
  352
  378
  404
  432
  461
  492
  524
  557
  592
  628
  667
  707
Net income, $m
  48
  81
  112
  145
  180
  217
  255
  296
  338
  382
  428
  491
  541
  592
  646
  702
  761
  822
  885
  952
  1,021
  1,093
  1,168
  1,247
  1,329
  1,415
  1,505
  1,600
  1,699
  1,802
  1,911

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  228
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,057
  938
  1,053
  1,175
  1,303
  1,438
  1,578
  1,725
  1,878
  2,038
  2,203
  2,376
  2,555
  2,741
  2,935
  3,136
  3,345
  3,562
  3,788
  4,024
  4,269
  4,525
  4,791
  5,069
  5,359
  5,661
  5,977
  6,307
  6,652
  7,013
  7,391
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  829
  938
  1,053
  1,175
  1,303
  1,438
  1,578
  1,725
  1,878
  2,038
  2,203
  2,376
  2,555
  2,741
  2,935
  3,136
  3,345
  3,562
  3,788
  4,024
  4,269
  4,525
  4,791
  5,069
  5,359
  5,661
  5,977
  6,307
  6,652
  7,013
  7,391
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.791
  0.791
  0.791
  0.791
  0.791
  0.791
  0.791
  0.791
  0.791
  0.791
  0.791
  0.791
  0.791
  0.791
  0.791
  0.791
  0.791
  0.791
  0.791
  0.791
  0.791
  0.791
  0.791
  0.791
  0.791
  0.791
  0.791
  0.791
  0.791
  0.791
  0.791
Average production assets, $m
  284
  321
  361
  402
  446
  492
  541
  591
  643
  698
  755
  814
  875
  939
  1,005
  1,074
  1,146
  1,220
  1,298
  1,378
  1,462
  1,550
  1,641
  1,736
  1,835
  1,939
  2,047
  2,160
  2,278
  2,402
  2,531
Working capital, $m
  357
  151
  169
  189
  209
  231
  253
  277
  302
  327
  354
  381
  410
  440
  471
  504
  537
  572
  608
  646
  686
  727
  769
  814
  860
  909
  960
  1,013
  1,068
  1,126
  1,187
Total debt, $m
  245
  296
  354
  415
  479
  547
  618
  692
  769
  849
  932
  1,019
  1,109
  1,203
  1,300
  1,401
  1,506
  1,616
  1,730
  1,848
  1,971
  2,100
  2,234
  2,374
  2,519
  2,672
  2,830
  2,997
  3,170
  3,352
  3,541
Total liabilities, $m
  421
  472
  530
  591
  655
  723
  794
  868
  945
  1,025
  1,108
  1,195
  1,285
  1,379
  1,476
  1,577
  1,682
  1,792
  1,906
  2,024
  2,147
  2,276
  2,410
  2,550
  2,695
  2,848
  3,006
  3,173
  3,346
  3,528
  3,717
Total equity, $m
  636
  466
  523
  584
  648
  714
  784
  857
  933
  1,013
  1,095
  1,181
  1,270
  1,362
  1,458
  1,558
  1,662
  1,770
  1,883
  2,000
  2,122
  2,249
  2,381
  2,519
  2,663
  2,814
  2,971
  3,135
  3,306
  3,486
  3,673
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,057
  938
  1,053
  1,175
  1,303
  1,437
  1,578
  1,725
  1,878
  2,038
  2,203
  2,376
  2,555
  2,741
  2,934
  3,135
  3,344
  3,562
  3,789
  4,024
  4,269
  4,525
  4,791
  5,069
  5,358
  5,662
  5,977
  6,308
  6,652
  7,014
  7,390
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.385
  0.630
  0.680
  0.710
  0.740
  0.770
  0.790
  0.810
  0.820
  0.840
  0.850
  0.860
  0.870
  0.880
  0.890
  0.900
  0.910
  0.910
  0.920
  0.920
  0.930
  0.930
  0.940
  0.940
  0.950
  0.950
  0.950
  0.960
  0.960
  0.960
  0.960
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.492
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497
  0.497

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  48
  81
  112
  145
  180
  217
  255
  296
  338
  382
  428
  491
  541
  592
  646
  702
  761
  822
  885
  952
  1,021
  1,093
  1,168
  1,247
  1,329
  1,415
  1,505
  1,600
  1,699
  1,802
  1,911
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  38
  47
  50
  53
  57
  60
  64
  68
  72
  77
  81
  65
  70
  75
  80
  86
  92
  98
  104
  110
  117
  124
  131
  139
  147
  155
  164
  173
  182
  192
  203
Funds from operations, $m
  132
  127
  162
  198
  236
  277
  319
  364
  410
  458
  509
  556
  611
  667
  727
  788
  853
  919
  989
  1,062
  1,138
  1,217
  1,300
  1,386
  1,476
  1,571
  1,669
  1,773
  1,881
  1,994
  2,113
Change in working capital, $m
  15
  17
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  61
Cash from operations, $m
  117
  140
  143
  178
  216
  255
  297
  340
  386
  433
  482
  528
  582
  638
  696
  756
  819
  885
  953
  1,024
  1,098
  1,176
  1,257
  1,341
  1,430
  1,522
  1,619
  1,720
  1,825
  1,936
  2,052
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -36
  -39
  -43
  -47
  -51
  -56
  -60
  -65
  -70
  -75
  -80
  -86
  -92
  -98
  -104
  -110
  -117
  -124
  -131
  -139
  -147
  -155
  -164
  -173
  -182
  -192
New CAPEX, $m
  -18
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -129
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -152
  -60
  -65
  -71
  -76
  -82
  -87
  -93
  -99
  -106
  -113
  -119
  -126
  -134
  -141
  -149
  -158
  -166
  -175
  -185
  -194
  -205
  -215
  -226
  -238
  -251
  -263
  -277
  -291
  -306
  -321
Free cash flow, $m
  -35
  80
  78
  108
  140
  174
  209
  247
  286
  327
  370
  409
  455
  504
  554
  607
  661
  718
  778
  840
  904
  971
  1,042
  1,115
  1,191
  1,271
  1,355
  1,443
  1,534
  1,630
  1,731
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  62
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  87
  90
  94
  97
  101
  105
  109
  114
  118
  123
  129
  134
  140
  146
  152
  159
  166
  174
  181
  190
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  58
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  87
  90
  94
  97
  101
  105
  109
  114
  118
  123
  129
  134
  140
  146
  152
  159
  166
  174
  181
  190
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  23
  135
  136
  169
  204
  241
  280
  320
  363
  407
  453
  495
  545
  597
  652
  708
  767
  828
  892
  958
  1,027
  1,100
  1,176
  1,255
  1,337
  1,424
  1,514
  1,609
  1,708
  1,812
  1,921
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -108
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -127
  -132
  -138
  -144
  -150
  -157
  -164
  -172
  -179
  -188
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  224
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  304
  79
  109
  141
  174
  210
  247
  287
  328
  371
  410
  456
  505
  555
  608
  663
  720
  779
  841
  906
  973
  1,043
  1,117
  1,193
  1,273
  1,357
  1,445
  1,537
  1,633
  1,733
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  292
  72
  95
  116
  135
  152
  167
  179
  188
  194
  195
  195
  192
  186
  178
  168
  157
  143
  129
  115
  101
  87
  73
  61
  50
  40
  31
  24
  18
  13
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Rogers Corporation designs, develops, manufactures, and sells engineered materials and components worldwide. The company’s Advanced Connectivity Solutions segment offers circuit materials and solutions for connectivity applications in wireless communications infrastructure, automotive, connected devices, wired infrastructure, consumer electronics, and aerospace/defense. Its Elastomeric Material Solutions segment provides elastomeric material solutions for critical cushioning, sealing, impact protection, and vibration management applications, including general industrial, portable electronics, consumer goods, automotive, mass transportation, construction, and printing applications. The company’s Power Electronics Solutions segment offers ceramic substrate materials for power module applications, laminated bus bars for power inverter and high power interconnect applications, and micro-channel coolers. Its Other segment provides elastomeric components for applications in ground transportation, office equipment, consumer, and other markets; elastomeric floats for level sensing in fuel tanks, motors, and storage tanks; and inverters for portable communications and automotive markets. The company also manufactures and sells polytetrafluoroethylene, polyethylene films, and pressure sensitive tapes, as well as specialty products for the industrial, aerospace, automotive, and electronics markets; and silicone products for various applications. Rogers Corporation was founded in 1832 and is headquartered in Rogers, Connecticut.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Rogers (ROG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 32.1
Price to Sales 2.3
Price to Book 2.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 15.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 2.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -28%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 1.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 57
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 37.9%
Total Debt to Equity 38.5%
Interest Coverage 28
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Return On Total Capital 5.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Return On Equity 7.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.3%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 38%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.7%
EBITDA Margin 18.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.3%
Operating Margin 12.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 12.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12%
Net Profit Margin 7.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.7%
Effective Tax Rate 41.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

ROG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ROG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $656 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Rogers. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Rogers. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ROG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 13.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ROG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Rogers, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Rogers.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ROG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 46.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $273 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ROG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Rogers.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Rogers. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ROG stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ROG are equal to 43.3%.

Life of production assets of 12.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Rogers operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ROG is equal to 20.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $636 million for Rogers - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 18.051 million for Rogers is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Rogers at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.5 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Rogers Corp. Value Analysis (NYSE:ROG) : April 21, 2017   [Apr-21-17 03:47PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Trump's big pharma impact   [Mar-30-17 05:47PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Rogers Corp. posts 4Q profit   [07:36AM  Associated Press]
▶ Do Hedge Funds Love Rogers Corporation (ROG)?   [Dec-02-16 03:29AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Rogers Acquires DeWAL Industries   [01:06PM  Business Wire]
▶ Rogers Corp. posts 3Q profit   [Nov-02-16 04:47PM  AP]
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Stock chart of ROG Financial statements of ROG
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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