Intrinsic value of Retail Opportunity Investment - ROIC

Previous Close

$18.98

  Intrinsic Value

$2.68

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-86%

  Value-price divergence*

+24%

Previous close

$18.98

 
Intrinsic value

$2.68

 
Up/down potential

-86%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+24%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as ROIC.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ROIC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  22.80
  13.60
  12.74
  11.97
  11.27
  10.64
  10.08
  9.57
  9.11
  8.70
  8.33
  8.00
  7.70
  7.43
  7.19
  6.97
  6.77
  6.59
  6.43
  6.29
  6.16
  6.05
  5.94
  5.85
  5.76
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
Revenue, $m
  237
  269
  304
  340
  378
  418
  461
  505
  551
  599
  648
  700
  754
  810
  868
  929
  992
  1,057
  1,125
  1,196
  1,270
  1,347
  1,427
  1,510
  1,597
  1,688
  1,783
  1,882
  1,985
  2,093
  2,206
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  165
  186
  208
  231
  256
  282
  309
  337
  366
  397
  429
  462
  496
  531
  569
  607
  647
  689
  732
  777
  824
  873
  924
  977
  1,033
  1,091
  1,152
  1,215
  1,281
  1,350
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  31
Total operating expenses, $m
  160
  180
  202
  224
  248
  273
  299
  327
  355
  385
  416
  449
  482
  517
  552
  591
  629
  670
  712
  756
  802
  849
  899
  950
  1,004
  1,061
  1,120
  1,181
  1,245
  1,312
  1,381
Operating income, $m
  77
  89
  102
  116
  130
  145
  161
  178
  195
  214
  232
  252
  272
  294
  316
  339
  363
  387
  413
  440
  468
  497
  528
  559
  592
  627
  663
  701
  740
  781
  825
EBITDA, $m
  165
  189
  215
  242
  271
  301
  332
  365
  400
  436
  473
  512
  552
  594
  638
  684
  731
  780
  831
  884
  939
  997
  1,057
  1,120
  1,185
  1,253
  1,325
  1,399
  1,477
  1,558
  1,644
Interest expense (income), $m
  34
  40
  48
  55
  63
  72
  80
  90
  99
  109
  120
  131
  142
  154
  166
  179
  192
  206
  220
  235
  251
  267
  284
  301
  320
  339
  359
  379
  401
  424
  447
Earnings before tax, $m
  36
  49
  54
  60
  67
  74
  81
  88
  96
  104
  112
  121
  130
  140
  149
  160
  170
  181
  193
  205
  217
  230
  244
  258
  273
  288
  305
  322
  339
  358
  377
Tax expense, $m
  0
  13
  15
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  33
  35
  38
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  59
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  82
  87
  92
  97
  102
Net income, $m
  33
  35
  40
  44
  49
  54
  59
  64
  70
  76
  82
  88
  95
  102
  109
  117
  124
  132
  141
  149
  159
  168
  178
  188
  199
  211
  222
  235
  248
  261
  275

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  13
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,663
  3,025
  3,410
  3,819
  4,249
  4,701
  5,175
  5,670
  6,187
  6,725
  7,286
  7,868
  8,474
  9,104
  9,758
  10,438
  11,144
  11,879
  12,644
  13,439
  14,267
  15,130
  16,028
  16,966
  17,943
  18,963
  20,029
  21,141
  22,304
  23,520
  24,791
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,650
  3,025
  3,410
  3,819
  4,249
  4,701
  5,175
  5,670
  6,187
  6,725
  7,286
  7,868
  8,474
  9,104
  9,758
  10,438
  11,144
  11,879
  12,644
  13,439
  14,267
  15,130
  16,028
  16,966
  17,943
  18,963
  20,029
  21,141
  22,304
  23,520
  24,791
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.089
  0.089
  0.089
  0.089
  0.089
  0.089
  0.089
  0.089
  0.089
  0.089
  0.089
  0.089
  0.089
  0.089
  0.089
  0.089
  0.089
  0.089
  0.089
  0.089
  0.089
  0.089
  0.089
  0.089
  0.089
  0.089
  0.089
  0.089
  0.089
  0.089
  0.089
Average production assets, $m
  2,402
  2,728
  3,076
  3,444
  3,832
  4,240
  4,667
  5,114
  5,580
  6,065
  6,570
  7,096
  7,642
  8,210
  8,800
  9,413
  10,050
  10,713
  11,402
  12,120
  12,866
  13,644
  14,455
  15,300
  16,182
  17,102
  18,063
  19,066
  20,115
  21,211
  22,357
Working capital, $m
  0
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -115
  -121
Total debt, $m
  1,156
  1,366
  1,581
  1,808
  2,048
  2,300
  2,563
  2,839
  3,127
  3,427
  3,739
  4,064
  4,401
  4,752
  5,116
  5,495
  5,888
  6,298
  6,723
  7,166
  7,628
  8,108
  8,609
  9,131
  9,675
  10,244
  10,837
  11,457
  12,104
  12,781
  13,490
Total liabilities, $m
  1,475
  1,685
  1,900
  2,127
  2,367
  2,619
  2,882
  3,158
  3,446
  3,746
  4,058
  4,383
  4,720
  5,071
  5,435
  5,814
  6,207
  6,617
  7,042
  7,485
  7,947
  8,427
  8,928
  9,450
  9,994
  10,563
  11,156
  11,776
  12,423
  13,100
  13,809
Total equity, $m
  1,188
  1,340
  1,511
  1,692
  1,882
  2,083
  2,292
  2,512
  2,741
  2,979
  3,228
  3,486
  3,754
  4,033
  4,323
  4,624
  4,937
  5,262
  5,601
  5,953
  6,320
  6,702
  7,101
  7,516
  7,949
  8,401
  8,873
  9,366
  9,881
  10,419
  10,982
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,663
  3,025
  3,411
  3,819
  4,249
  4,702
  5,174
  5,670
  6,187
  6,725
  7,286
  7,869
  8,474
  9,104
  9,758
  10,438
  11,144
  11,879
  12,643
  13,438
  14,267
  15,129
  16,029
  16,966
  17,943
  18,964
  20,029
  21,142
  22,304
  23,519
  24,791
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.973
  1.020
  1.050
  1.070
  1.090
  1.100
  1.120
  1.130
  1.140
  1.150
  1.160
  1.170
  1.170
  1.180
  1.180
  1.190
  1.190
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.210
  1.210
  1.210
  1.210
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.220
  1.230
  1.230
  1.230
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  33
  35
  40
  44
  49
  54
  59
  64
  70
  76
  82
  88
  95
  102
  109
  117
  124
  132
  141
  149
  159
  168
  178
  188
  199
  211
  222
  235
  248
  261
  275
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  88
  100
  113
  126
  140
  155
  171
  187
  204
  222
  241
  260
  280
  301
  322
  345
  368
  392
  418
  444
  471
  500
  529
  560
  593
  626
  662
  698
  737
  777
  819
Funds from operations, $m
  112
  135
  152
  170
  189
  209
  230
  252
  274
  298
  323
  348
  375
  403
  431
  461
  492
  525
  558
  593
  630
  668
  708
  749
  792
  837
  884
  933
  984
  1,038
  1,094
Change in working capital, $m
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
Cash from operations, $m
  115
  137
  154
  172
  191
  211
  232
  254
  277
  301
  325
  351
  378
  406
  435
  465
  496
  528
  562
  597
  634
  672
  712
  753
  797
  842
  889
  939
  990
  1,044
  1,101
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -88
  -100
  -113
  -126
  -140
  -155
  -171
  -187
  -204
  -222
  -241
  -260
  -280
  -301
  -322
  -345
  -368
  -392
  -418
  -444
  -471
  -500
  -529
  -560
  -593
  -626
  -662
  -698
  -737
  -777
New CAPEX, $m
  -326
  -327
  -348
  -368
  -388
  -408
  -427
  -447
  -466
  -486
  -505
  -526
  -546
  -568
  -590
  -613
  -637
  -663
  -689
  -717
  -747
  -778
  -811
  -845
  -882
  -920
  -961
  -1,003
  -1,049
  -1,096
  -1,146
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -325
  -415
  -448
  -481
  -514
  -548
  -582
  -618
  -653
  -690
  -727
  -767
  -806
  -848
  -891
  -935
  -982
  -1,031
  -1,081
  -1,135
  -1,191
  -1,249
  -1,311
  -1,374
  -1,442
  -1,513
  -1,587
  -1,665
  -1,747
  -1,833
  -1,923
Free cash flow, $m
  -210
  -277
  -293
  -308
  -323
  -337
  -350
  -363
  -376
  -389
  -402
  -415
  -428
  -442
  -456
  -471
  -486
  -502
  -520
  -538
  -557
  -577
  -598
  -621
  -645
  -671
  -698
  -727
  -757
  -789
  -823
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  161
  210
  215
  227
  240
  252
  264
  276
  288
  300
  312
  325
  337
  351
  364
  379
  394
  409
  426
  443
  461
  480
  501
  522
  545
  568
  593
  620
  648
  677
  708
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  184
  130
  131
  137
  142
  147
  151
  155
  159
  163
  166
  170
  173
  177
  181
  185
  189
  193
  198
  203
  208
  214
  220
  227
  234
  241
  250
  258
  267
  277
  288
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  299
  340
  346
  364
  382
  399
  415
  431
  447
  463
  478
  495
  510
  528
  545
  564
  583
  602
  624
  646
  669
  694
  721
  749
  779
  809
  843
  878
  915
  954
  996
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  88
  62
  52
  56
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  89
  93
  96
  100
  104
  108
  113
  117
  122
  128
  133
  139
  145
  151
  158
  165
  173
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -151
  -165
  -171
  -181
  -191
  -200
  -210
  -219
  -229
  -239
  -248
  -258
  -268
  -279
  -290
  -301
  -313
  -326
  -339
  -352
  -367
  -382
  -398
  -415
  -433
  -452
  -472
  -493
  -515
  -539
  -563
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  13
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -90
  -118
  -125
  -132
  -139
  -145
  -152
  -159
  -165
  -172
  -179
  -186
  -193
  -201
  -209
  -217
  -226
  -235
  -244
  -254
  -265
  -276
  -288
  -300
  -313
  -327
  -342
  -357
  -373
  -390
Discount rate, %
 
  8.70
  9.14
  9.59
  10.07
  10.57
  11.10
  11.66
  12.24
  12.85
  13.50
  14.17
  14.88
  15.62
  16.41
  17.23
  18.09
  18.99
  19.94
  20.94
  21.98
  23.08
  24.24
  25.45
  26.72
  28.06
  29.46
  30.93
  32.48
  34.11
  35.81
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -83
  -99
  -95
  -90
  -84
  -77
  -70
  -63
  -56
  -48
  -42
  -35
  -29
  -24
  -19
  -15
  -12
  -9
  -7
  -5
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  94.1
  89.2
  84.9
  81.0
  77.6
  74.6
  71.8
  69.4
  67.1
  65.1
  63.2
  61.5
  59.9
  58.4
  57.0
  55.7
  54.5
  53.4
  52.3
  51.3
  50.3
  49.4
  48.5
  47.7
  46.9
  46.1
  45.4
  44.7
  44.0
  43.3

Retail Opportunity Investments Corp. (ROIC) is a fully integrated, self-managed real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company specializes in the acquisition, ownership and management of necessity-based community and neighborhood shopping centers on the west coast of the United States, anchored by supermarkets and drugstores. Retail Opportunity Investments Partnership, LP is the operating partnership of the Company. The Operating Partnership holds substantially all the assets of the Company and directly or indirectly holds the ownership interests in the Company's real estate ventures. The Operating Partnership conducts the operations of the Company's business. As of December 31, 2016, the Company's portfolio consisted of 82 properties (81 retail and one office) totaling approximately 9.4 million square feet of gross leasable area (GLA). As of December 31, 2016, the Company's portfolio was approximately 97.6% leased.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Retail Opportunity Investment (ROIC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 62.9
Price to Sales 8.8
Price to Book 1.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 18
Price to Free Cash Flow -9.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 22.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -4.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -1.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 97.3%
Total Debt to Equity 97.3%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Return On Total Capital 1.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.4%
Return On Equity 3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.6%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 86.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 85.1%
EBITDA Margin 66.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 66.8%
Operating Margin 32.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 15.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.9%
Net Profit Margin 13.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.1%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 254.5%

ROIC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ROIC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $237 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Retail Opportunity Investment. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Retail Opportunity Investment. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ROIC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 13.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.7%, whose default value for ROIC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Retail Opportunity Investment, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Retail Opportunity Investment.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ROIC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 61.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $15 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ROIC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Retail Opportunity Investment.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Retail Opportunity Investment. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ROIC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ROIC are equal to 1013.3%.

Life of production assets of 27.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Retail Opportunity Investment operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ROIC is equal to -5.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1188 million for Retail Opportunity Investment - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 110.836 million for Retail Opportunity Investment is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Retail Opportunity Investment at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.1 billion.

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Financial statements of ROIC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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