Intrinsic value of Retail Opportunity Investment - ROIC

Previous Close

$19.02

  Intrinsic Value

$2.55

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-87%

Previous close

$19.02

 
Intrinsic value

$2.55

 
Up/down potential

-87%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as ROIC.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ROIC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  22.80
  15.20
  14.18
  13.26
  12.44
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.88
  9.39
  8.95
  8.56
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
  7.33
  7.10
  6.89
  6.70
  6.53
  6.38
  6.24
  6.12
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
Revenue, $m
  237
  314
  359
  407
  457
  511
  567
  626
  688
  753
  820
  890
  963
  1,039
  1,118
  1,200
  1,285
  1,374
  1,466
  1,561
  1,661
  1,765
  1,873
  1,985
  2,102
  2,224
  2,352
  2,485
  2,624
  2,769
  2,921
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  169
  192
  216
  242
  270
  298
  329
  360
  393
  428
  455
  493
  532
  572
  614
  657
  703
  750
  799
  850
  903
  958
  1,016
  1,076
  1,138
  1,203
  1,271
  1,342
  1,417
  1,494
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  33
  33
  34
  35
  36
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  51
  52
  53
  54
  55
  56
  58
  59
  60
  61
Total operating expenses, $m
  160
  202
  225
  250
  277
  306
  334
  366
  398
  432
  468
  496
  535
  574
  615
  658
  702
  749
  797
  847
  899
  954
  1,010
  1,069
  1,130
  1,193
  1,259
  1,329
  1,401
  1,477
  1,555
Operating income, $m
  77
  113
  134
  156
  180
  205
  232
  260
  290
  320
  352
  394
  429
  465
  503
  542
  582
  625
  669
  714
  762
  811
  863
  917
  973
  1,031
  1,092
  1,156
  1,223
  1,292
  1,365
EBITDA, $m
  165
  438
  504
  574
  649
  728
  812
  899
  991
  1,087
  1,187
  1,291
  1,399
  1,512
  1,629
  1,750
  1,877
  2,008
  2,145
  2,287
  2,435
  2,589
  2,749
  2,916
  3,090
  3,272
  3,462
  3,659
  3,866
  4,082
  4,308
Interest expense (income), $m
  34
  80
  96
  112
  129
  148
  167
  188
  209
  232
  255
  280
  305
  332
  359
  388
  418
  449
  481
  515
  549
  586
  623
  663
  703
  746
  791
  837
  885
  936
  989
Earnings before tax, $m
  36
  32
  38
  44
  51
  58
  65
  73
  81
  89
  97
  115
  124
  133
  143
  154
  165
  176
  188
  200
  212
  226
  240
  254
  269
  285
  302
  319
  337
  356
  376
Tax expense, $m
  0
  9
  10
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  31
  33
  36
  39
  42
  44
  47
  51
  54
  57
  61
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  86
  91
  96
  102
Net income, $m
  33
  24
  28
  32
  37
  42
  48
  53
  59
  65
  71
  84
  90
  97
  105
  112
  120
  128
  137
  146
  155
  165
  175
  186
  197
  208
  220
  233
  246
  260
  275

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  13
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,663
  3,053
  3,486
  3,949
  4,440
  4,959
  5,505
  6,079
  6,680
  7,307
  7,961
  8,642
  9,351
  10,088
  10,854
  11,650
  12,477
  13,337
  14,230
  15,160
  16,127
  17,133
  18,181
  19,272
  20,410
  21,597
  22,835
  24,127
  25,477
  26,886
  28,360
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,650
  3,053
  3,486
  3,949
  4,440
  4,959
  5,505
  6,079
  6,680
  7,307
  7,961
  8,642
  9,351
  10,088
  10,854
  11,650
  12,477
  13,337
  14,230
  15,160
  16,127
  17,133
  18,181
  19,272
  20,410
  21,597
  22,835
  24,127
  25,477
  26,886
  28,360
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.089
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
Average production assets, $m
  2,402
  3,168
  3,617
  4,097
  4,606
  5,145
  5,712
  6,307
  6,930
  7,581
  8,260
  8,967
  9,702
  10,466
  11,261
  12,087
  12,945
  13,837
  14,764
  15,729
  16,732
  17,776
  18,863
  19,996
  21,176
  22,407
  23,692
  25,032
  26,432
  27,895
  29,424
Working capital, $m
  0
  -21
  -24
  -28
  -31
  -35
  -39
  -43
  -47
  -51
  -56
  -61
  -65
  -71
  -76
  -82
  -87
  -93
  -100
  -106
  -113
  -120
  -127
  -135
  -143
  -151
  -160
  -169
  -178
  -188
  -199
Total debt, $m
  1,156
  1,771
  2,071
  2,392
  2,733
  3,093
  3,473
  3,871
  4,288
  4,723
  5,177
  5,650
  6,142
  6,653
  7,185
  7,737
  8,311
  8,908
  9,528
  10,173
  10,844
  11,542
  12,269
  13,027
  13,817
  14,640
  15,499
  16,396
  17,333
  18,311
  19,334
Total liabilities, $m
  1,475
  2,119
  2,420
  2,740
  3,081
  3,441
  3,821
  4,219
  4,636
  5,071
  5,525
  5,998
  6,490
  7,001
  7,533
  8,085
  8,659
  9,256
  9,876
  10,521
  11,192
  11,890
  12,617
  13,375
  14,165
  14,988
  15,847
  16,744
  17,681
  18,659
  19,682
Total equity, $m
  1,188
  934
  1,067
  1,208
  1,359
  1,517
  1,685
  1,860
  2,044
  2,236
  2,436
  2,645
  2,861
  3,087
  3,321
  3,565
  3,818
  4,081
  4,354
  4,639
  4,935
  5,243
  5,563
  5,897
  6,246
  6,609
  6,987
  7,383
  7,796
  8,227
  8,678
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,663
  3,053
  3,487
  3,948
  4,440
  4,958
  5,506
  6,079
  6,680
  7,307
  7,961
  8,643
  9,351
  10,088
  10,854
  11,650
  12,477
  13,337
  14,230
  15,160
  16,127
  17,133
  18,180
  19,272
  20,411
  21,597
  22,834
  24,127
  25,477
  26,886
  28,360
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.973
  1.900
  1.940
  1.980
  2.010
  2.040
  2.060
  2.080
  2.100
  2.110
  2.130
  2.140
  2.150
  2.160
  2.160
  2.170
  2.180
  2.180
  2.190
  2.190
  2.200
  2.200
  2.210
  2.210
  2.210
  2.220
  2.220
  2.220
  2.220
  2.230
  2.230
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.443
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306
  0.306

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  33
  24
  28
  32
  37
  42
  48
  53
  59
  65
  71
  84
  90
  97
  105
  112
  120
  128
  137
  146
  155
  165
  175
  186
  197
  208
  220
  233
  246
  260
  275
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  88
  325
  370
  418
  469
  523
  580
  639
  701
  766
  834
  897
  970
  1,047
  1,126
  1,209
  1,295
  1,384
  1,476
  1,573
  1,673
  1,778
  1,886
  2,000
  2,118
  2,241
  2,369
  2,503
  2,643
  2,790
  2,942
Funds from operations, $m
  112
  349
  398
  450
  506
  565
  627
  692
  760
  831
  905
  980
  1,061
  1,144
  1,231
  1,321
  1,415
  1,512
  1,613
  1,719
  1,828
  1,942
  2,061
  2,185
  2,314
  2,449
  2,589
  2,736
  2,890
  3,050
  3,217
Change in working capital, $m
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
Cash from operations, $m
  115
  351
  401
  454
  510
  569
  631
  696
  764
  836
  910
  985
  1,066
  1,149
  1,236
  1,326
  1,420
  1,518
  1,620
  1,725
  1,835
  1,949
  2,069
  2,193
  2,322
  2,457
  2,598
  2,745
  2,899
  3,060
  3,227
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -275
  -317
  -362
  -410
  -461
  -514
  -571
  -631
  -693
  -758
  -826
  -897
  -970
  -1,047
  -1,126
  -1,209
  -1,295
  -1,384
  -1,476
  -1,573
  -1,673
  -1,778
  -1,886
  -2,000
  -2,118
  -2,241
  -2,369
  -2,503
  -2,643
  -2,790
New CAPEX, $m
  -326
  -415
  -449
  -480
  -509
  -539
  -567
  -595
  -623
  -651
  -679
  -707
  -735
  -765
  -795
  -826
  -858
  -892
  -927
  -964
  -1,003
  -1,044
  -1,087
  -1,133
  -1,181
  -1,231
  -1,284
  -1,341
  -1,400
  -1,463
  -1,529
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -325
  -690
  -766
  -842
  -919
  -1,000
  -1,081
  -1,166
  -1,254
  -1,344
  -1,437
  -1,533
  -1,632
  -1,735
  -1,842
  -1,952
  -2,067
  -2,187
  -2,311
  -2,440
  -2,576
  -2,717
  -2,865
  -3,019
  -3,181
  -3,349
  -3,525
  -3,710
  -3,903
  -4,106
  -4,319
Free cash flow, $m
  -210
  -339
  -365
  -388
  -410
  -431
  -451
  -470
  -489
  -508
  -527
  -548
  -566
  -586
  -605
  -625
  -646
  -668
  -691
  -716
  -741
  -768
  -796
  -826
  -858
  -891
  -927
  -965
  -1,004
  -1,046
  -1,091
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  161
  284
  300
  321
  341
  360
  379
  398
  417
  435
  454
  473
  492
  511
  532
  552
  574
  597
  620
  645
  671
  698
  727
  758
  790
  823
  859
  897
  937
  978
  1,023
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  184
  102
  105
  109
  113
  117
  120
  122
  125
  127
  129
  125
  127
  128
  130
  131
  133
  135
  137
  139
  141
  143
  146
  148
  152
  155
  159
  162
  167
  171
  176
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  299
  386
  405
  430
  454
  477
  499
  520
  542
  562
  583
  598
  619
  639
  662
  683
  707
  732
  757
  784
  812
  841
  873
  906
  942
  978
  1,018
  1,059
  1,104
  1,149
  1,199
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  88
  47
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  103
  108
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -151
  -126
  -132
  -141
  -150
  -159
  -167
  -176
  -184
  -192
  -200
  -208
  -217
  -226
  -234
  -244
  -253
  -263
  -273
  -284
  -296
  -308
  -321
  -334
  -348
  -363
  -379
  -395
  -413
  -431
  -451
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  396
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  6
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  64
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  317
  -92
  -99
  -106
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -138
  -144
  -159
  -165
  -172
  -178
  -185
  -193
  -200
  -208
  -216
  -225
  -234
  -244
  -254
  -265
  -276
  -288
  -301
  -314
  -328
  -343
Discount rate, %
 
  7.50
  7.88
  8.27
  8.68
  9.12
  9.57
  10.05
  10.55
  11.08
  11.63
  12.22
  12.83
  13.47
  14.14
  14.85
  15.59
  16.37
  17.19
  18.05
  18.95
  19.90
  20.89
  21.94
  23.04
  24.19
  25.40
  26.67
  28.00
  29.40
  30.87
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  295
  -79
  -78
  -76
  -73
  -69
  -64
  -59
  -53
  -48
  -45
  -39
  -33
  -28
  -23
  -19
  -15
  -12
  -9
  -7
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  93.2
  87.6
  82.7
  78.5
  74.8
  71.5
  68.7
  66.1
  63.8
  61.8
  60.0
  58.4
  56.9
  55.6
  54.3
  53.2
  52.1
  51.2
  50.2
  49.4
  48.6
  47.8
  47.1
  46.4
  45.7
  45.1
  44.5
  43.9
  43.4
  42.9

Retail Opportunity Investments Corp. (ROIC) is a fully integrated, self-managed real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company specializes in the acquisition, ownership and management of necessity-based community and neighborhood shopping centers on the west coast of the United States, anchored by supermarkets and drugstores. Retail Opportunity Investments Partnership, LP is the operating partnership of the Company. The Operating Partnership holds substantially all the assets of the Company and directly or indirectly holds the ownership interests in the Company's real estate ventures. The Operating Partnership conducts the operations of the Company's business. As of September 30, 2017, the Company's portfolio consisted of 87 properties totaling approximately 10.0 million square feet of gross leasable area (GLA). As of September 30, 2017, the Company's portfolio was approximately 97.3% leased.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Retail Opportunity Investment (ROIC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 63
Price to Sales 8.8
Price to Book 1.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 18.1
Price to Free Cash Flow -9.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 22.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -4.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -1.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 97.3%
Total Debt to Equity 97.3%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Return On Total Capital 1.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.4%
Return On Equity 3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.6%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 86.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 85.1%
EBITDA Margin 66.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 66.8%
Operating Margin 32.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 15.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.9%
Net Profit Margin 13.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.1%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 254.5%

ROIC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ROIC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $273 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Retail Opportunity Investment. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Retail Opportunity Investment. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ROIC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 15.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.5%, whose default value for ROIC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Retail Opportunity Investment, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Retail Opportunity Investment.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ROIC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 54.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $32 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ROIC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Retail Opportunity Investment.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Retail Opportunity Investment. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ROIC stock is equal to 2.3%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ROIC are equal to 1007.3%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Retail Opportunity Investment operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ROIC is equal to -6.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1204 million for Retail Opportunity Investment - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 110 million for Retail Opportunity Investment is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Retail Opportunity Investment at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.1 billion.

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Financial statements of ROIC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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