Intrinsic value of Rollins Inc. - ROL

Previous Close

$37.80

  Intrinsic Value

$18.39

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-51%

  Value-price divergence*

-31%

Previous close

$37.80

 
Intrinsic value

$18.39

 
Up/down potential

-51%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-31%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ROL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 8.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  5.93
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.95
  5.85
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.12
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
Revenue, $m
  1,573
  1,672
  1,775
  1,883
  1,995
  2,111
  2,233
  2,360
  2,493
  2,632
  2,776
  2,928
  3,086
  3,252
  3,425
  3,607
  3,797
  3,996
  4,204
  4,422
  4,651
  4,891
  5,143
  5,406
  5,683
  5,973
  6,277
  6,596
  6,931
  7,283
  7,651
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,328
  1,408
  1,492
  1,579
  1,670
  1,765
  1,864
  1,967
  2,075
  2,188
  2,280
  2,403
  2,532
  2,667
  2,809
  2,957
  3,111
  3,274
  3,444
  3,622
  3,809
  4,005
  4,210
  4,426
  4,651
  4,888
  5,137
  5,398
  5,671
  5,958
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  67
  68
  70
  72
  74
  75
  77
  79
  81
  83
  85
  87
  90
  92
  94
  96
  99
  101
  104
  107
  109
  112
  115
  118
  121
  124
  127
  130
  133
  136
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,314
  1,395
  1,476
  1,562
  1,651
  1,744
  1,840
  1,941
  2,046
  2,156
  2,271
  2,365
  2,490
  2,622
  2,759
  2,903
  3,053
  3,210
  3,375
  3,548
  3,729
  3,918
  4,117
  4,325
  4,544
  4,772
  5,012
  5,264
  5,528
  5,804
  6,094
Operating income, $m
  260
  278
  299
  321
  344
  368
  393
  419
  447
  476
  506
  563
  595
  630
  666
  704
  744
  785
  829
  875
  923
  973
  1,026
  1,082
  1,140
  1,201
  1,265
  1,333
  1,404
  1,478
  1,557
EBITDA, $m
  310
  328
  351
  374
  399
  425
  452
  480
  509
  540
  572
  606
  641
  678
  716
  757
  799
  844
  891
  940
  991
  1,045
  1,102
  1,161
  1,223
  1,289
  1,358
  1,430
  1,506
  1,585
  1,669
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
  42
  44
Earnings before tax, $m
  261
  278
  298
  319
  342
  365
  389
  414
  441
  468
  497
  553
  585
  618
  653
  690
  728
  768
  810
  854
  901
  949
  1,000
  1,054
  1,110
  1,169
  1,231
  1,297
  1,365
  1,437
  1,512
Tax expense, $m
  94
  75
  81
  86
  92
  98
  105
  112
  119
  126
  134
  149
  158
  167
  176
  186
  197
  207
  219
  231
  243
  256
  270
  285
  300
  316
  332
  350
  369
  388
  408
Net income, $m
  167
  203
  218
  233
  249
  266
  284
  302
  322
  342
  363
  404
  427
  451
  477
  503
  531
  561
  591
  624
  657
  693
  730
  769
  810
  854
  899
  946
  996
  1,049
  1,104

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  143
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  917
  823
  874
  927
  982
  1,039
  1,099
  1,162
  1,227
  1,295
  1,366
  1,441
  1,519
  1,600
  1,686
  1,775
  1,868
  1,966
  2,069
  2,176
  2,289
  2,407
  2,531
  2,661
  2,797
  2,940
  3,089
  3,246
  3,411
  3,584
  3,765
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  774
  823
  874
  927
  982
  1,039
  1,099
  1,162
  1,227
  1,295
  1,366
  1,441
  1,519
  1,600
  1,686
  1,775
  1,868
  1,966
  2,069
  2,176
  2,289
  2,407
  2,531
  2,661
  2,797
  2,940
  3,089
  3,246
  3,411
  3,584
  3,765
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.032
  2.032
  2.031
  2.031
  2.032
  2.032
  2.032
  2.031
  2.032
  2.032
  2.032
  2.032
  2.032
  2.033
  2.031
  2.032
  2.033
  2.033
  2.032
  2.032
  2.032
  2.032
  2.032
  2.032
  2.032
  2.032
  2.032
  2.032
  2.032
  2.032
  2.032
Average production assets, $m
  218
  231
  245
  260
  275
  291
  308
  326
  344
  363
  383
  404
  426
  449
  473
  498
  524
  551
  580
  610
  642
  675
  710
  746
  784
  824
  866
  910
  957
  1,005
  1,056
Working capital, $m
  13
  -139
  -147
  -156
  -166
  -175
  -185
  -196
  -207
  -218
  -230
  -243
  -256
  -270
  -284
  -299
  -315
  -332
  -349
  -367
  -386
  -406
  -427
  -449
  -472
  -496
  -521
  -548
  -575
  -604
  -635
Total debt, $m
  0
  22
  45
  69
  94
  120
  147
  175
  204
  235
  267
  300
  335
  372
  411
  451
  493
  537
  583
  631
  682
  735
  791
  849
  911
  975
  1,042
  1,113
  1,187
  1,265
  1,346
Total liabilities, $m
  348
  370
  393
  417
  442
  468
  495
  523
  552
  583
  615
  648
  683
  720
  759
  799
  841
  885
  931
  979
  1,030
  1,083
  1,139
  1,197
  1,259
  1,323
  1,390
  1,461
  1,535
  1,613
  1,694
Total equity, $m
  569
  453
  481
  510
  540
  572
  604
  639
  675
  712
  752
  792
  835
  880
  927
  976
  1,028
  1,081
  1,138
  1,197
  1,259
  1,324
  1,392
  1,463
  1,538
  1,617
  1,699
  1,785
  1,876
  1,971
  2,071
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  917
  823
  874
  927
  982
  1,040
  1,099
  1,162
  1,227
  1,295
  1,367
  1,440
  1,518
  1,600
  1,686
  1,775
  1,869
  1,966
  2,069
  2,176
  2,289
  2,407
  2,531
  2,660
  2,797
  2,940
  3,089
  3,246
  3,411
  3,584
  3,765
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.050
  0.090
  0.140
  0.170
  0.210
  0.240
  0.270
  0.300
  0.330
  0.360
  0.380
  0.400
  0.420
  0.440
  0.460
  0.480
  0.500
  0.510
  0.530
  0.540
  0.560
  0.570
  0.580
  0.590
  0.600
  0.610
  0.620
  0.630
  0.640
  0.650
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  167
  203
  218
  233
  249
  266
  284
  302
  322
  342
  363
  404
  427
  451
  477
  503
  531
  561
  591
  624
  657
  693
  730
  769
  810
  854
  899
  946
  996
  1,049
  1,104
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  50
  50
  52
  53
  55
  57
  58
  60
  62
  64
  66
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  83
  88
  92
  97
  102
  107
  112
Funds from operations, $m
  220
  253
  269
  286
  304
  323
  342
  363
  384
  406
  429
  447
  472
  499
  527
  556
  587
  619
  653
  689
  726
  765
  806
  849
  894
  941
  991
  1,043
  1,098
  1,156
  1,216
Change in working capital, $m
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
Cash from operations, $m
  227
  340
  278
  295
  314
  333
  352
  373
  395
  418
  441
  459
  485
  513
  541
  571
  603
  636
  670
  707
  745
  785
  827
  871
  917
  965
  1,016
  1,070
  1,126
  1,185
  1,247
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -107
New CAPEX, $m
  -33
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -77
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -101
  -107
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -158
Free cash flow, $m
  150
  303
  239
  254
  270
  287
  305
  323
  342
  362
  383
  398
  421
  445
  470
  496
  524
  553
  583
  615
  648
  683
  720
  759
  799
  842
  887
  934
  983
  1,035
  1,089
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
  74
  78
  82
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -31
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -27
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
  74
  78
  82
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  117
  326
  262
  278
  295
  313
  332
  351
  371
  393
  415
  431
  456
  481
  508
  536
  566
  597
  629
  663
  699
  736
  776
  817
  861
  906
  954
  1,004
  1,057
  1,113
  1,171
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -45
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -95
  -100
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  143
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  442
  234
  249
  265
  281
  299
  317
  335
  355
  376
  390
  413
  436
  461
  487
  514
  543
  573
  604
  637
  671
  708
  746
  786
  828
  872
  918
  966
  1,017
  1,071
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  424
  214
  217
  218
  218
  217
  214
  210
  204
  197
  185
  176
  166
  155
  143
  131
  118
  105
  93
  81
  69
  59
  49
  40
  32
  25
  20
  15
  11
  8
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Rollins, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides pest and termite control services to residential and commercial customers. Its pest control services include protection against termite damage, rodents, and insects to homes and businesses, including hotels, food service establishments, food manufacturers, retailers, and transportation companies. The company also provides pest management and sanitation services and products to the food and commodity industries; consulting services on border protection related to Australia’s biosecurity program; and bird control and specialist services, as well as offers specialized services to mining, and oil and gas sectors. It serves clients directly, as well as through franchises operations in North America, Australia, Europe, Central America, the Caribbean, the Middle East, Asia, the Mediterranean, Africa, Canada, Australia, and Mexico. Rollins, Inc. was founded in 1948 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Rollins Inc. (ROL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 49.3
Price to Sales 5.2
Price to Book 14.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 36.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 42.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 5.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -15.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 11.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 18.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.4%
Return On Total Capital 30.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.7%
Return On Equity 30.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.7%
Asset Turnover 1.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 50.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 50.4%
EBITDA Margin 19.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.1%
Operating Margin 16.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 16.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.2%
Net Profit Margin 10.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.2%
Effective Tax Rate 36%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.8%
Payout Ratio 65.3%

ROL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ROL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1573 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Rollins Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Rollins Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ROL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ROL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Rollins Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Rollins Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ROL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 79.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $65 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ROL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Rollins Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Rollins Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ROL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ROL are equal to 13.8%.

Life of production assets of 9.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Rollins Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ROL is equal to -8.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $569 million for Rollins Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 219.23 million for Rollins Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Rollins Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $8.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Rollins, Inc. Value Analysis (NYSE:ROL) : April 19, 2017   [Apr-19-17 03:15PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Why We're Excited About These 3 Top Stocks   [Feb-17-17 08:49PM  Motley Fool]
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▶ 14 Dividend Growth Stocks Rewarding Shareholders With A Raise   [Jan-31-17 07:09AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Rollins, Inc. Earnings Jump 20%   [Jan-26-17 04:29PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Rollins, Inc. Increases Dividend By 15.0 Percent   [Jan-24-17 04:20PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Orkin Establishes Seventeen New International Franchises   [Jan-19-17 04:30PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Should You Follow Hedge Funds Back Into Kilroy Realty Corp (KRC)?   [Dec-06-16 04:39PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ [$$] At Hartford Schroders Fund It's Steady as She Goes   [Dec-03-16 12:01AM  at Barrons.com]
▶ Teneo Holdings Sues Strategist Rollins for Defamation   [Nov-01-16 05:25PM  at Bloomberg]
▶ Chicago Holds Top Spot on Rattiest Cities List   [Oct-17-16 06:04AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Value Holdings Likes These 5 Industrials Stocks   [Aug-06-16 12:58AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Rollins, Inc. Announces Regular Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Jul-26-16 04:20PM  PR Newswire]
Stock chart of ROL Financial statements of ROL
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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