Intrinsic value of RBC Bearings - ROLL

Previous Close

$106.00

  Intrinsic Value

$37.71

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-64%

  Value-price divergence*

+13%

Previous close

$106.00

 
Intrinsic value

$37.71

 
Up/down potential

-64%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+13%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ROLL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  34.16
  2.10
  2.39
  2.65
  2.89
  3.10
  3.29
  3.46
  3.61
  3.75
  3.88
  3.99
  4.09
  4.18
  4.26
  4.34
  4.40
  4.46
  4.52
  4.56
  4.61
  4.65
  4.68
  4.71
  4.74
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  597
  610
  624
  641
  659
  680
  702
  726
  752
  781
  811
  843
  878
  914
  953
  995
  1,039
  1,085
  1,134
  1,186
  1,240
  1,298
  1,359
  1,423
  1,490
  1,561
  1,636
  1,715
  1,798
  1,885
  1,977
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  488
  499
  512
  526
  541
  558
  577
  596
  618
  641
  639
  665
  692
  722
  753
  786
  822
  859
  898
  939
  983
  1,029
  1,077
  1,129
  1,182
  1,239
  1,299
  1,361
  1,427
  1,497
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  494
  488
  499
  512
  526
  541
  558
  577
  596
  618
  641
  639
  665
  692
  722
  753
  786
  822
  859
  898
  939
  983
  1,029
  1,077
  1,129
  1,182
  1,239
  1,299
  1,361
  1,427
  1,497
Operating income, $m
  104
  121
  125
  129
  133
  138
  144
  150
  156
  163
  170
  205
  213
  222
  231
  241
  252
  263
  275
  288
  301
  315
  330
  345
  362
  379
  397
  416
  436
  458
  480
EBITDA, $m
  130
  165
  169
  173
  178
  184
  190
  196
  204
  211
  219
  228
  237
  247
  258
  269
  281
  293
  307
  321
  336
  351
  368
  385
  403
  422
  443
  464
  486
  510
  535
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
Earnings before tax, $m
  95
  109
  112
  116
  120
  124
  129
  134
  140
  146
  153
  186
  194
  202
  210
  219
  229
  239
  249
  261
  272
  285
  298
  312
  327
  342
  358
  375
  393
  412
  432
Tax expense, $m
  31
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  97
  101
  106
  111
  117
Net income, $m
  64
  79
  82
  84
  87
  91
  94
  98
  102
  107
  111
  136
  142
  147
  154
  160
  167
  174
  182
  190
  199
  208
  218
  228
  238
  250
  261
  274
  287
  301
  315

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  39
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,099
  1,083
  1,109
  1,138
  1,171
  1,207
  1,247
  1,290
  1,336
  1,387
  1,440
  1,498
  1,559
  1,624
  1,693
  1,767
  1,845
  1,927
  2,014
  2,106
  2,203
  2,305
  2,413
  2,527
  2,647
  2,773
  2,906
  3,046
  3,193
  3,348
  3,511
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,060
  1,083
  1,109
  1,138
  1,171
  1,207
  1,247
  1,290
  1,336
  1,387
  1,440
  1,498
  1,559
  1,624
  1,693
  1,767
  1,845
  1,927
  2,014
  2,106
  2,203
  2,305
  2,413
  2,527
  2,647
  2,773
  2,906
  3,046
  3,193
  3,348
  3,511
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
  0.563
Average production assets, $m
  273
  278
  285
  292
  301
  310
  320
  331
  343
  356
  370
  385
  400
  417
  435
  454
  474
  495
  517
  541
  566
  592
  620
  649
  680
  712
  746
  782
  820
  860
  901
Working capital, $m
  341
  305
  312
  320
  330
  340
  351
  363
  376
  390
  405
  422
  439
  457
  477
  497
  519
  542
  567
  593
  620
  649
  679
  711
  745
  781
  818
  857
  899
  942
  988
Total debt, $m
  364
  365
  376
  389
  403
  420
  437
  456
  477
  499
  523
  548
  575
  604
  635
  667
  701
  738
  776
  817
  860
  905
  953
  1,003
  1,056
  1,112
  1,170
  1,232
  1,297
  1,366
  1,438
Total liabilities, $m
  478
  479
  490
  503
  517
  534
  551
  570
  591
  613
  637
  662
  689
  718
  749
  781
  815
  852
  890
  931
  974
  1,019
  1,067
  1,117
  1,170
  1,226
  1,284
  1,346
  1,411
  1,480
  1,552
Total equity, $m
  621
  604
  619
  635
  653
  674
  696
  720
  746
  774
  804
  836
  870
  906
  945
  986
  1,029
  1,075
  1,124
  1,175
  1,229
  1,286
  1,347
  1,410
  1,477
  1,547
  1,622
  1,700
  1,782
  1,868
  1,959
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,099
  1,083
  1,109
  1,138
  1,170
  1,208
  1,247
  1,290
  1,337
  1,387
  1,441
  1,498
  1,559
  1,624
  1,694
  1,767
  1,844
  1,927
  2,014
  2,106
  2,203
  2,305
  2,414
  2,527
  2,647
  2,773
  2,906
  3,046
  3,193
  3,348
  3,511
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.586
  0.600
  0.610
  0.610
  0.620
  0.620
  0.630
  0.630
  0.640
  0.640
  0.650
  0.660
  0.660
  0.670
  0.670
  0.680
  0.680
  0.690
  0.690
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.720
  0.720
  0.730
  0.730
  0.730
  0.730
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.549
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558
  0.558

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  64
  79
  82
  84
  87
  91
  94
  98
  102
  107
  111
  136
  142
  147
  154
  160
  167
  174
  182
  190
  199
  208
  218
  228
  238
  250
  261
  274
  287
  301
  315
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  26
  44
  44
  45
  45
  46
  46
  47
  48
  48
  49
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  52
  55
Funds from operations, $m
  68
  123
  126
  129
  132
  136
  140
  145
  150
  155
  161
  160
  166
  173
  180
  188
  196
  204
  214
  223
  233
  244
  255
  267
  280
  293
  307
  322
  337
  353
  370
Change in working capital, $m
  -15
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
Cash from operations, $m
  83
  117
  119
  121
  123
  126
  129
  133
  137
  141
  146
  143
  149
  154
  161
  167
  174
  181
  189
  197
  206
  215
  225
  235
  246
  258
  270
  282
  296
  310
  324
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -17
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -52
New CAPEX, $m
  -21
  -5
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -520
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -90
  -94
Free cash flow, $m
  -437
  95
  95
  96
  97
  98
  100
  102
  105
  107
  110
  106
  110
  113
  117
  122
  126
  131
  137
  142
  148
  155
  161
  168
  176
  184
  192
  201
  210
  220
  230
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  360
  11
  11
  13
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  350
  11
  11
  13
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -86
  105
  106
  109
  111
  114
  118
  121
  125
  129
  134
  131
  137
  142
  148
  154
  161
  168
  175
  183
  191
  200
  209
  219
  229
  239
  251
  263
  275
  288
  302
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -72
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  29
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  122
  92
  92
  93
  94
  96
  97
  99
  101
  104
  99
  102
  106
  109
  113
  117
  122
  126
  132
  137
  143
  149
  155
  162
  169
  177
  185
  193
  202
  211
Discount rate, %
 
  6.10
  6.41
  6.73
  7.06
  7.41
  7.79
  8.17
  8.58
  9.01
  9.46
  9.94
  10.43
  10.95
  11.50
  12.08
  12.68
  13.32
  13.98
  14.68
  15.41
  16.19
  16.99
  17.84
  18.74
  19.67
  20.66
  21.69
  22.77
  23.91
  25.11
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  115
  81
  76
  71
  66
  61
  56
  51
  47
  42
  35
  31
  27
  24
  20
  17
  15
  12
  10
  8
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

RBC Bearings Incorporated manufactures and markets engineered precision bearings and products primarily in North America, Europe, Asia, and Latin America. It operates in four segments: Plain Bearings, Roller Bearings, Ball Bearings, and Engineered Products. The Plain Bearings segment produces plain bearings with self-lubricating or metal-to-metal designs, including rod end bearings, spherical plain bearings, and journal bearings that are primarily used to rectify misalignments in various mechanical components, such as aircraft controls, helicopter rotors, or in heavy mining and construction equipment. The Roller Bearings segment provides heavy duty needle roller bearings with inner rings, tapered roller bearings, track rollers, and aircraft roller bearings, which are anti-friction bearings that use rollers instead of balls. The Ball Bearings segment specializes in high precision aerospace, airframe control, thin section, and industrial ball bearings that utilize high precision ball elements to reduce friction in high speed applications. The Engineered Products segment offers engineered hydraulics and valves for aircraft and submarine applications, and aerospace and defense aftermarket services; fasteners; precision mechanical components, which are used in various general industrial applications; and machine tool collets that are used for holding circular or rod like pieces in a lathe or other machine. It serves the construction and mining, oil and natural resource extraction, heavy truck, rail and train, packaging, semiconductor machinery, and other general industrial markets, as well as aerospace and defense markets. The company offers its products through direct sales force, and a network of industrial and aerospace distributors. RBC Bearings Incorporated was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in Oxford, Connecticut.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  RBC Bearings (ROLL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 40
Price to Sales 4.3
Price to Book 4.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 30.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 41.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 34.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -12.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 4
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 57%
Total Debt to Equity 58.6%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9%
Return On Total Capital 8.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.2%
Return On Equity 10.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.2%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 36.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.1%
EBITDA Margin 20.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.4%
Operating Margin 17.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 15.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.7%
Net Profit Margin 10.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.7%
Effective Tax Rate 32.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

ROLL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ROLL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $597 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by RBC Bearings. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of RBC Bearings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ROLL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.1%, whose default value for ROLL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of RBC Bearings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of RBC Bearings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ROLL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 80.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ROLL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for RBC Bearings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for RBC Bearings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ROLL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ROLL are equal to 45.6%.

Life of production assets of 16.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in RBC Bearings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ROLL is equal to 50%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $621 million for RBC Bearings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 23.549 million for RBC Bearings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of RBC Bearings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ RBC Bearings beats Street 1Q forecasts   [Aug-08-17 05:23PM  Associated Press]
▶ RBC Bearings Restarts Its Growth Engines   [10:40AM  Motley Fool]
▶ ETFs with exposure to RBC Bearings, Inc. : June 8, 2017   [Jun-08-17 01:55PM  Capital Cube]
▶ RBC Bearings Announces Senior Leadership Updates   [Jun-07-17 04:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ RBC Bearings tops 4Q profit forecasts   [08:25AM  Associated Press]
▶ RBC Bearings tops 3Q profit forecasts   [08:07AM  Associated Press]
▶ Is RBC Bearings Incorporated (ROLL) A Good Stock to Buy?   [Dec-13-16 04:34AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ RBC Bearings Keeps Rolling Higher   [Nov-03-16 03:20PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Stock Analysts Lower 3Q17 Estimates for RBC   [Oct-17-16 01:49PM  at Investopedia]
Stock chart of ROLL Financial statements of ROLL
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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